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MattW

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  1. Over $100m every day through the 2nd Sunday: Cume Daily April 24, 2019 169 169 April 25, 2019 365 196 April 26, 2019 644.561 279.561 April 27, 2019 974.925 330.364 April 28, 2019 1223.64 248.715 Weekend 1 858.64 Week 1 1223.64 April 29, 2019 1342.69 119.17 April 30, 2019 1481.1 138.41 May 1, 2019 1669.95 188.85 May 2, 2019 1786.39 116.44 May 3, 2019 1915.53 129.14 May 4, 2019 2077.06 161.53 May 5, 2019 2193.74 116.68 Weekend 2 403 Week 2 970.22
  2. This is a good article that is tangentially related this thread, and very much related to the board's interests generally: https://thehustle.co/why-is-movie-theater-popcorn-so-outrageously-expensive/?curator=MediaREDEF The cinemark ratio (1/1.8) is 55.5% which matches the detailed Harry Potter revenue sheet from that court case that said the movie lost a zillion dollars. Doesn't match the 70% quoted before. Also of interest: (not sure if there's a better thread for this)
  3. Downton Abbey is doing really well in my area both on the 12th and the 19th. If it's representative I'm gonna say at least $2m for the pre-previews and anywhere from $4-8m for actual opening night previews.
  4. Thanks but I'm about to give those points back to you with Joker
  5. Aug 11 863.84 (+95.23) Aug 18 940.88 (+77.04) Aug 25 1000.78 (+59.89) Sept 1 1046.33 (+45.55) Sept 8 1071.01 (+24.68) I think $1115m or so, about 45 more.
  6. I'm not predicting any movies to hit a billion right now, but there are enough potentials that I think there will be at least one for the year. 750 - Mulan 800 - Bond 850 - Black Widow 900 - Fast 9 750 - WW84 850 - Minions 700 - Tenet Outside shot for one of the pixar or disney animated ones out of the three scheduled.
  7. https://deadline.com/2019/08/rambo-last-blood-ad-astra-downton-abbey-box-office-projections-1202707434/ Rambo: Last Blood set to open between $21M-$24M on Sept. 20 Ad Astra which is depending on older males and females. That $87M-plus estimated production is expected to only gas up between $17.5M-19M Downton Abbey which is on fire in pre-sales ahead of Mamma Mia: Here We Go Again! is only estimated to open between $15M-$16M stripper caper Hustlers is still looking great on tracking reports with an anticipated 3-day of $26M when it opens on Sept. 12
  8. I'll take this one. I have a bet further up on the page that it opens under 100 Another one: Downton Abbey over $25m OW. 25pts to just one person.
  9. I tried to find JW2's presales two weeks before release to compare to The Nun (franchise horror) but no luck, maybe I'm blind? Here's the week of release: Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266 The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 For those three days the nun was more presale heavy relative to the OW. Normally I'd say horror would be at least as walkup friendly as Fallen Kingdom but to me IT2 seems like it should be more in line with The Nun, if not more presale heavy. Though to be fair the heavier part of presales is likely closer to release, this week and next week, compared to JW2.
  10. I'm not sure it'll hit 170, tracking pretty close to Straight Outta Compton: https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Fast-and-Furious-Presents-Hobbs-and-Shaw-(2019)/Straight-Outta-Compton#tab=day_by_day_comparison Edit Aug 26, after looking again I think @Thanos Legion @Stevenand @a2k are right, it'll get to or just past 170m. Going into the weeds on this.... PG13 movies have better labor day holds than rated R movies so it'll do better next weekend relative to SOC, and beyond that it's holding even with SOC on weekend 4 even though SOC had the holiday. If it holds like Suicide Squad from here on out it could even leg it up a little past 175 (SS having pretty good late legs I wouldn't say that's a good bet yet, but next weekend we'll know for sure).
  11. https://www.thewrap.com/it-chapter-two-projected-to-at-least-match-predecessors-horror-record-opening/ https://variety.com/2019/film/news/box-office-it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-tracking-1203302473/ https://deadline.com/2019/08/it-chapter-two-opening-weekend-box-office-projections-bill-hader-jessica-chastain-1202669396/ My feeling before seeing any of the posts here was around $12m for previews for IT2, with a slightly lower IM compared to IT (9.14), maybe 8.5-9.0 for a weekend at or just over 100m.
  12. The end of August is always really weak, this year is completely normal. Lining up Labor day weekend for the last few years: 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Aug 148.106 132.091 116.918 147.302 132.166 Aug 106.62 132.091 96.488 129.469 120.084 Aug 87.831 117.321 69.312 103.631 108.155 LD Wknd 3day 90.555 100.094 77.622 99.366 90 Sept 102.512 100.848 164.041 121.114 130 Sept 112.827 90.02 112.222 109.131 105 Holdovers next weekend should drop between 30 and 40%, Fallen will add 10-15m, Overcomer and Ready or Not combining for up to 10m for a weekend of 90-105m, right in the middle of the range of previous years. Labor day weekend I think holdovers will drop 15-20%, and basically just one new opener doing 5-10m, weekend total in the 80s. The weekend IT opened holdovers dropped 60%, around 35m this year, plus IT2 will make it 125-150. Thurs Aug 29th: Added Labor day and Sept predictions.
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