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Posts posted by MattW
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So it's at 365.6m overseas, but does that include all of China's box office up to now, or just the 35m OW there?
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I think Catching Fire will just barely get to the far side of $500m overseas. I'll say $515. The reviews are very positive (surprisingly so IMO, but then again I'm not a huge fan of the first one and haven't read the books), however I think that will be a bigger factor for the domestic box office.
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I was all into predicting superhero movies this past summer, and I put down $275-$350 million overseas for The Winter Soldier (and $200-260 for North America). But for the sake of giving a single hard number I'll go with $325 million.
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I can't see more than a small bump over part 1, $740m, $750m, something around there. Part 3 is the one where a big jump seems likely.
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I think 80-120 million overseas is likely, something on the order of Safe House and Looper.
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I see both domestic and overseas numbers for Furious 6 moving up just marginally from Fast 5, around $250 and $500 respectively. That's still pretty incredible, top 75 all time domestic and top 50 all time worldwide.
And I think pushing out number 7 next year is too soon. That one will probably see either a plateau or a slight drop in both numbers.
The Amazing Spider-Man 2: Record opening in Philippines and India, stabilizing elsewhere
in International Box Office
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I think low to mid 500s. My general impression is that spiderman has reached market saturation and there will be little growth from here on out aside from inflation. I could be wrong though. We'll see.