redfirebird2008
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Posts posted by redfirebird2008
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Huge night for Cillian Murphy & Lily Gladstone. Another big night for Oppenheimer in general.
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Nolan won Directors Guild, which has led to a Best Director Oscar 90% of the time in 75 years. Hopefully Nolan is not in the 10% group, lol
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Nolan won Best Director at the Directors Guild Awards tonight. Big step on the way to potentially winning Best Director at the Oscars.
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13 hours ago, Valonqar said:
I've read somewhere, here or elsewhere, about the accidental split. Something gets the most of #2 votes while the frontrunner with the most #1 votes doesn't get enough of them to win the first round so the one with enough #2 votes jumps over it. It's complicated system that should be abolished but AMPAS wants agreeable winners rather than divisive ones so here we are.
Because there's no complete overlap with AMPAS. GG and CC aren't even AMPAS. BAFTA overlaps to a degree but now it's getting more difficult cause jury gets to nominate 2 or 3 not the whole BAFTA body. So that's 12 people's choice. DGA and Director's Branch don't overlap either. It's even worse with SAG-AFTRA where AFTRA is no part of Actors Branch.
That said, every case is different. In Lee case, you can see that GG, BAFTA and DGA enbraced foreign talent but AMPAS went American. Affleck snub for Argo seems to be some kind of split vote with Bigelow (2 political thrillers) that robbed both of a nomination. It's very weird that directors who directed political thrillers got snubbed. Lee won cause nobody really liked Lincoln save DDL performance. Mendes is an interestign case. Parasite win is explicable cause 1917 being one man show was never going to appeal to Acting Branch who are the largest voting block within AMPAS. But Bong upset was out of the left field though Parasite surge overall must have worked its magic.
Mendes won for American Beauty. Not surprised with 1917 that they chose a first time winner over him. -
12 hours ago, Valonqar said:
Why people think that Holdovers will win Picture or that there will be a split between Nolan and any other movie? Are there signs that voters don't like Oppenheimer? I mean, The Holdovers couldn't even get SAG Ensemble. So far, most upsets came from movies that got SAG Ensemble noms (CODA, Parasite) vs movies that didn't (TPOTD, 1917) or neither got SAG Ensemble (Green Book vs ROMA). Oppenheimer got Ensemble nom.
Perceived “frontrunner” status can lead to people voting for other movies since they figure Oppy will have plenty of support from other voters. I don’t mind if that happens in Best Picture, but I’m hoping it doesn’t happen to Nolan in the Best Director category. -
2 hours ago, cannastop said:
hmm yeah I'm not exactly a Nolan stan (most of my posts aren't about Oppenheimer)
So maybe realistically it can get 9 oscars. 🤷♂️
Nah. Maybe 5-7 wins. Unlikely to be more than 7. -
9 hours ago, Maggie said:
WB, stop! He's not coming back
It's hard to imagine Universal letting him slip through their fingers after the Oppenheimer success. Also hard to imagine the cheapskate Zaslav throwing around extra money at Warner Brothers to outbid Universal on future Nolan projects.
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6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Yeah definitely not buying the narrative that it was just happenstance of competitive fields regarding the Gerwig and Robbie snubs. You could make that argument for literally anything in a competitive year getting snubbed, yet we sure didn’t see things like no Nolan or even no Marty (who would have actually made some sense as a big snub given KotFMs collapse in momentum). Barbie was easily the second best positioned movie through the majority of the awards season, with only Poor Things surging ahead of it by the end for runner up.
There wasn’t any excuse for the snubs, especially not Gerwig and especially when we got Bening in actress. That just proves how little support in the major cats Barbie actually had to begin with. Which is pretty ridiculous considering what it achieved in acclaim, success, and the overall zeitgeist. Opp is in a similar situation, but they wouldn’t dare treat it that way with such major snubs.
The fact both Gosling and Ferrera have felt compelled to make official statements condemning the Gerwig and Robbie snubs and not expressing excitement over their own noms really says it all.
Hey now, let's not talk about snubbing Nolan. He got screwed pretty bad for almost 20 years with zero nominations in the Director category. Even though it's trending a more positive way for him this year, I still expect the Academy to pull the rug out from under him at the last minute. Lol
I'll say for Gerwig, at least she got nominated with Lady Bird. She was only 34 at the time. Pretty amazing honor at a young age. She & her husband very well might win the Adapted Screenplay Oscar, which is an awesome deal for any movie...but especially for a summer blockbuster instead of one of the artsy fartsy type of movies.
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5 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Hey who knows, maybe it will be Argo 2.0 where if the Academy gets enough heat for the snub they will give Barbie BP to compensate.
Maybe. They could also give it a Screenplay Oscar, which is a pretty awesome reward for any movie.
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15 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:
I think Cooper is probably third. Murphy is the favourite and Giamatti is the spoiler. A lot of journalists consider Cooper the frontrunner because it's the most on paper Oscar role. Plus there's a notion among Oscar pundits that Bradley Cooper is 'overdue' for the award but I don't think that's actually a widespread belief.
I know the media narrative, but in reality Cooper is not any more overdue than Giamatti or Murphy. Those 2 guys have been great actors for a long time with zero Oscars to show for it. -
2 hours ago, Eric Owns Mickey Mouse said:
Important to note that the Globes aired immediately after a football doubleheader. And these days, the NFL is the most important, most vital lead-in for network television. Take that out, and you'd probably lose a solid amount of viewers from the equation. Still impressive though and a good rebound either way.
I can only speak for myself here. I did not leave the TV on CBS or FOX when those afternoon games were over. I switched to NBC in order to watch the Buffalo & Miami football game. I would imagine a ton of NFL fans did the same thing, meaning I am not sure how much of a boost the afternoon game on CBS provided to the Golden Globes.
I assume most of the ratings boost is from the extra viewers who wanted to see the result for Taylor Swift & Barbie nominations.
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14 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Social network won big at the critics circuit but show some weakness in the big award event. PGA and BAFTA favour the king speech that year, so it is not longer that big of a surprise that it was losing best picture.
Just looked it up. Social Network won pretty big at the Golden Globes: Best Drama film, Best Director, Best Writing, Best Score. Seems like a pretty good example of how the Golden Globes don't really mean much on the road to the Oscars.
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7 hours ago, Valonqar said:
I wouldn't call Joker the wrong movie. It's an iconic performance. The Revenant however is the poster child for makeup/wrong. Leo should have won for WOWS.
I would have given it to Leo for The Aviator or The Departed. Wall Street performance was great too, but seemed like he should have gotten it much earlier.
I think the poster child for this deal is Al Pacino with Scent of a Woman. Knowing how incredible his performances were in the first two Godfather movies, it's unbelievable to think of him winning an Oscar for anything in the 1990's.
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2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:
As much as I am rooting for Oppenheimer, I was sort of hoping the movie losing at GG because GG has too much track record of attracting backlash. La la land, three billboard, 1917 and the power of dog, no matter how strong the way they looked as frontrunner, the backlash cost them Oscar eventually.
How about Social Network? I seem to remember that movie swept all kinds of awards but then got snubbed pretty hard at the Oscars.
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Pretty good numbers for Wonka.
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8 hours ago, Mojoguy said:
I miss the days when random action movie like True Lies becomes the 3rd biggest movie of the year.
CBMs have taken over the last decade too much. But looks like big cracks are finally starting to appear on the genre. A CBM won't even in the top 3 this year, just like last year!
If it’s not superhero franchise movies, it is another form of franchise movies dominating Hollywood in the 2000’s and beyond. Harry Potter, Twilight, Hunger Games, Star Wars, Transformers, LOTR/Hobbit, Disney animated remakes, etc.You gave a great example with True Lies. Paramount had some big time success in the 1990’s with several one-off movies: Forrest Gump, Braveheart, and Titanic. Big success at the box office, big success at the Oscars. It’s sad how everything has played out in more recent years.
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16 hours ago, M37 said:
To be fair, they weren’t having many hits before the merger. Biggest franchise were X-Men/Deadpool (now being rolling into MCU), Planet of the Apes, and then family films. Plus occasional historical one-offs like Ford v Ferrari, Hidden Figures, BhoRap, and throw Revenent in there too, or 1 a year
Paramount has Tom Cruise (MI & TG).and a bunch of fading franchises (Transformers, Terminator, TMNT, Trek), Plus Sonic, Quiet Place & Scream.
D&D and Lost City were the closest they came of late to an original hit, since basically Arrival in 2016 (>$200M WW)
It is sad that Hollywood has become so obsessed with franchises and brands. As recently as the 1990’s you could be a profitable studio with “one off” movies instead of franchises.-
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1 hour ago, Scubasteve716 said:
Is kinda funny everyone thought WB would be sold and yet they are buying something else lol
Warner & Paramount combined are less than $40 billion market cap. Chump change for Comcast/Universal, the rumored buyer for Warner Brothers.-
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3 hours ago, Jonwo said:
Comcast won't buy WB, that's an anti competition suit waiting to happen.
I think a joint Universal/WB Nolan film is likely.
Then Comcast & whoever else should sue regulators for allowing Disney to buy a ton of major brands recently (PIXAR, Marvel, Lucasfilm/Star Wars, and 20th Century Fox). Break up Disney if we are going down the path of blocking other mergers from happening.
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12 hours ago, MrPink said:
And I'm sure he'll stick with Universal as long as it remains convenient. But at some point, I'm sure the right opportunity arises where it makes sense to work with WB again. Nolan fortunately has the luxury to always be a free agent and evaluate on a per film basis.
If Comcast buys Warner, he can play with both Universal & Warner under the same roof. Lol-
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1 hour ago, emoviefan said:
Just gonna keep saying if that's what keeps the lights on so I can see the stuff I want to see.
It’s just one movie though. I have a large, new theater near me that’s pretty empty 90% of the time. Expecting it to eventually shutdown. -
5 hours ago, Jonwo said:
I liked KAFM but it's not as mainstream or accessible compared to things like The Departed, Wolf of Wall Street or Shutter Island which all were successful. Marty may complain that the studios don't fund his projects anymore but after seeing how KAFM is doing, you can see why this is the case.
Budget should have been $50M instead of $200M. It’s doable. This movie did have COVID problems, though I doubt they can blame COVID for adding $150M to the budget. -
61% drop for Killers of the Flower Moon. Ouch!
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28 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
The age of the video game era in Hollywood is upon us. They are definitely going to phase out CBMs as the bread and butter over the next decade, I’d put money on it.
Makes sense. Video games are extremely popular. Surprised they have not figured out a way in earlier years to really take advantage of that in the movie business.
Oppenheimer | 2024 Academy Award Winner for Best Picture and Best Director
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by redfirebird2008