redfirebird2008
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Posts posted by redfirebird2008
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100% increase on Friday would be a very good number. Saturday gonna be very good too.
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32 minutes ago, Shawn Robbins said:
I suspect Dune goes up, especially with another Sat jump coming. These numbers were from 12:30-1pm Pacific time.
Yeah, I would think the Saturday increase will be really strong. It was very strong last week.
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3 hours ago, vale9001 said:
Greta Gerwig's Narnia with a great cast could be a big success. It's a shame is a Netflix release.
Btw americans should start to watch again adult dramas are not blockbuster too.
You have poor things, a movie with Emma Stone, an acclaimed director, around 10 oscars nominees. Why you don't go to watch adult movies on a big screen? In my country the movie is #1 movie of the year and in proportion It's like It made 150M in the US.
It would be nice. Some of it is the big chain theaters don’t really play these type of movies. So the audience does not have a proper choice. -
36 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
Maybe because WB use differents types of Marketing for Barbie like parternerships or use buzz like the house/airbnb in pink in LA
There was a report Warner spent $150M on marketing for Barbie. Must have spent it somewhere, even if it wasn’t TV advertisements. Lol -
Spielberg in the list of presenters. Would be cool if he’s doing the Best Director category.
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14 minutes ago, von Kenni said:
Amazing numbers. The more we have spice, the more we want it. I'd be happy anything under 55% drop but looks like we're heading waay below that.
Yep, anything below 50% is pretty damn good for these book adaptation movies that have a long history behind them. Usually the fanbase causes a lot of frontloading. Would be epic if this movie can go below 40% on the weekend drop.-
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Just now, Grand Cine said:
Sorry i would say -38% drop from OW , so a better weekend than Oppy in % and Million
And Yes , weekdays are very strong for Oppy (thanks to summer and great WOM) so for sure the weekend is less high than normal , but if my prediction is good , the hold is really strong for Dune especially with good previews and with the competition of KFP .
PS : if i remove the previews ( i will take the 11,25M predicted by @charlie Jatinder) , it's around -28% drop !!!
I will drop more stats tomorrow once they will have Wednesday numbers ( spoilers : it's about % drop )
$51M for a 38% drop on the weekend would be awesome to see for Dune Part 2. I think anything above $44M (46% drop) would be a great result.
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13 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop
The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)
Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)
Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)
Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)
Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)
Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)
Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)
300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)
In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday
Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M
For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M
Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)
A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123
PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow
$51 million is not 38% better than Oppy's 2nd weekend, which was $46.7 million. That would be a 9.2% difference instead of the 38% you posted. Not sure how you came up with 38%.
Weekday performance is Oppy at $45.4 million and Dune Part 2 around $28.5 million, which is a 59% gap in favor of Oppy on the weekdays. That gap in weekday performance is why Oppy will be ahead of Dune Part 2 by more than $10 million after the 2nd weekend, unless Dune Part 2 pulls a miracle and grosses $63 million for the 2nd weekend.
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7 minutes ago, Grand Cine said:
I saw the last First Big Openers of March (30M+ openers) in the last 10 years and i saw that they often have the same jump Wed/Fri no matter The Thursday drop
The Batman : +119% (8,47M/18,61M)
Creed 3 : +123% (3,37M/7,53M)
Captain Marvel : +121% (8,58M/19,03M)
Logan : +83% (5,64M/10,36M)
Zootopie : +224% (3,72M/12,08M)
Cinderella : +107% (4,57M/9,47M)
Mr Peabody : +130% (2,36M/5,45M)
300 Partie II : +87% (3,08M/5,76M)
In general ( unless Zootopie (animation movie so big jump) , 300 (bad WOM) and Logan (competition with Kong which have the same demo target) ) all the movie have a jump Wed/Fri around 110%-120% especially with the first 3 movies of this list with the same jump so it's my preidction for Dune 2 : 120% jump Wed/Fri , so if the prediction of 6,5M is good , my prediction is at 14,3M for Friday
Now For Sat and Sun : unless 300 ( same argument of Friday) and Zootopie/Peabody ( same argument of Zoo for Fri), the average of Fri/Sat jump is between 50-60% so it will be between 21,45M-22,9M , and i think he will match the same jump as The Batman (+51%) so my prediction for Saturday is 21,6M
For Sunday , the drop is between 30-35% and i think he will be around 30% so my prediction for Sunday is 15,1M
Total of Weekend 2 for me : 51M ( so around 38% !!! better than Oppenheimer)
A little better than you anticipate @keysersoze123
PS : i will update with Wednesday actuals tomorrow
Oppy had very strong summer weekdays, which probably deflated the second weekend to an extent. In terms of the Friday jump, Dune Part 2 has a stronger PLF boost than the other March films you mentioned. This usually hurts the ability of a movie to jump by the same amount as movies that don't have the same PLF boost. We'll see how it shakes out!
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1 hour ago, vale9001 said:
So 150M domestic at the end of this week end?
Should be over $110M by end of Thursday. Potentially $155-160M by end of Sunday if the weekend plays strong enough.
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21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
Logan seems like a pretty good comparison point given the release date and dollar grosses for the opening 4 days. Logan's domestic total of $226M would mean a 2.74 multiplier for Dune Part 2, which is pretty similar to Dune Part 1's 2.68 multiplier. I'm thinking Dune Part 2 can make it to $250 million, but it will be interesting to see how it goes!
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4 minutes ago, KP1025 said:
It was a typo indeed. The Numbers has corrected it.
Daily Box Office Performance
Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days Feb 29, 2024 P $12,000,000 3,400 $3,529 $12,000,000 Mar 1, 2024 1 $32,211,366 4,071 $7,912 $32,211,366 1 Mar 2, 2024 1 $28,718,894 -11% 4,071 $7,055 $60,930,260 2 Mar 3, 2024 1 $21,575,131 -25% 4,071 $5,300 $82,505,391 3 Nice. So a 42% increase on Saturday from the true Friday number. That's a hell of a Saturday jump!
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1 minute ago, leoh said:
well Paramount reported 600k wrongly on they One Love opening weekend, helping it to getting 50M denied by actualsParamount used some fudge in Puerto Rico to increase Transformers 2's actual number from $198M to $200M so they could brag about how it was the 2nd movie ever to get $200M in 5 days. This was after they had reported actual numbers for all 5 days, lol
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1 minute ago, Mojoguy said:
Somehow somehow there were that many people that found the time to see a near 3 hour movie on a nonholiday weekday...
Times have somewhat changed with the Pandemic. Seems like there are way more people at home these days, some of them working and some of them not working. Heck I'm one of them. I'll be seeing Dune Part 2 on Tuesday afternoon.
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1 minute ago, Bob Train said:
Likely a typo from the Numbers then. I can't see the revised estimates be off by that much.
Pretty weird, lol
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2 minutes ago, M37 said:
Huh. Dune’s Sat actual is more than a million below the estimate ($28.85 vs $28.7). Been some odd numbers WB reported with this one…
Did get a -22% Sunday though
27.7 for Saturday. Not sure what happened on that 28.8 estimate. Regardless, the movie increased by 37% from true Friday. Pretty impressive jump IMHO.
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Pretty solid number
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So now we have the actuals. It jumped 42% on Saturday and dropped 25% on Sunday. That Sunday number is pretty strong considering it jumped by such a huge amount on Saturday. The Sunday number was almost $1.4 million larger than the "true" Friday number. Pretty damn good. It will be interesting to watch the rest of the film's run.
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35 minutes ago, JustLurking said:
Marvel films are not backloaded on OW
For many years they were. Take a look at films like Spider-Man 3 in 2007, Avengers in 2012, Iron Man 3 in 2013, Captain America: Civil War in 2016. There are plenty of others with similar performance in terms of backloaded huge opening weekends. And many of them ended up with pretty weak multipliers across their full box office run.
Hell, even Avengers: Endgame had a pretty backloaded opening weekend compared to the final Harry Potter film. If Endgame had the type of "preview" frontloading of Harry Potter where the previews accounted for almost 26% of the weekend total, Endgame would have made $92 million in preview money instead of $60 million.
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8 minutes ago, M37 said:
Just a general word of caution...
I know the box office has been boooring for a while, and Dune II is the shiny new to to play (math) with, but wouldn't try to read too much into the IM or daily fluctuations (Sat/Sun and Sun/Mon drops, etc). Not only is the film itself in its own category as far as demos, its also Spring Break period, and that added grossing potential not uniform for previous comps
Should have a fairly good idea where its heading by this upcoming Sunday. But for the record, would expect Dune II to make between ~$6.0-$7.5M on Monday (~21-26% of its Saturday gross)
Internal multiplier for opening weekend doesn't mean much. The Marvel films are a good example of that. Backloaded on opening weekend, but pretty frontloaded in general across the full run at the box office.
Dune Part 1 had a 2.7 multiplier. It seems the new one has much stronger WOM, so hopefully that will lead to better legs. But it also opened twice as large as the first movie. The bigger they open, the harder it is to pull off strong legs. $250M would be a 3.0 multiplier and seems like a good target. Anything higher would be awesome to see.
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Will be interesting to see how the legs play out for Dune Part 2. Needs to reach $250M domestic for a 3x multiplier, which seems like a solid target.
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3 minutes ago, Firepower said:
A lot more than 25 mln. Wikipedia is not reliable source for this kind of stuff.
It is crazy how much money they burn on these projects nowadays.
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1 hour ago, Firepower said:
There's no chance Mank cost $25 mln, like not even close.
What do you mean? You think it was a lot less than $25 million, or a lot more than $25 million? Wikipedia says $25 million.
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1 minute ago, MightyDargon said:
They're not "buried" if he's getting creative freedom to do R rated work the studios clearly aren't interested in.
You think the studios had no interest in The Killer? I strongly doubt it.
3/08-3/10 Weekend Estimates : KFP 4 : 58,3M , Dune 2 : 46,3M , Imaginary : 10M , Caprini : 7,6M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I feel bad for theaters. They don’t control the content. But it’s a pretty awful lineup of films pretty much every year. For the most part it feels like Hollywood lost its magic touch over the last 30 years as they have placed more and more emphasis on sequels & big brand material.