John Harris
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Posts posted by John Harris
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12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
BP is a totally 100M+ opener. The anticipation is real. BP was one of the best things about CW. believe it!
I hope you're right, and I hope it's a good flick. But so far Deadpool is the only $100-mil OW film ever released in February, and that character had a MUCH bigger following than BP has, even throwing in BP's CW appearance. I'd say it's guaranteed to match Doc Strange's 85-mil OW, but 100-mil is about 50/50, IMHO.
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6 hours ago, Gopher said:
Marvel's gonna score five straight 100m openings in a row (Guardians 2 through Infinity War). Their brand is reaching the same level of goodwill they hit in 2014 I think.
I'm not convinced Black Panther is a guaranteed $100-mil opening, are you? Here are my completely subjective odds for the next three MCU films cracking the $100-mil-OW:
Thor: Ragnarok: 75%
Black Panther: 50%
Infinity War: 100%
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1 hour ago, cookie said:
@Telemachos remembers it like it was yesterday.
Heh, I'm probably the only poster on here whose Dad fought in WWII...! As a bit of a WWII buff, I'm really looking forward to DUNKIRK... and I'd have to go see it anyway, as my daughter is a big Harry Styles fan.
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So does WW have a shot at overtaking GOTG2's DOM total? I don't think so, but it seems possible...?
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Great number for LOGAN. But I'm not convinced that WOM is going to be as strong as some of you on here are. I was at a packed 7 pm showing Thursday night, and there was stone silence when the movie ended. I've gone to many, many Thursday "previews" of superhero flicks, and that's a very rare occurrence. These are fans who've made an effort to see the movie as soon as possible (like me and my son did), and not one of them was compelled to applaud at the end. Sure, the movie doesn't exactly end on a "let's start cheering and clapping" note, but a smattering of applause is kind of the minimum norm at these earliest showings, regardless. And the folks I overheard outside the theater didn't seem particularly jazzed about it.
While the film had a lot of things going for it, I found the dour atmosphere of the film just weighed on me throughout, and it's one of the few Marvel flicks that I don't feel the least bit compelled to go see again on the big screen. I just don't think LOGAN is a big crowd-pleaser, and I suspect it will see a pretty big drop after this nice OW.
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30 minutes ago, Finnick said:
Doctor Strange with actual still have an under 50% Drop, Fantastic !!!!!
Movie Distributor Gross Change Thtrs. Per Thtr. Total Gross Days 1 (1) Doctor Strange Walt Disney $42,970,065 -49% 3,882 $11,069 $152,952,234 10 3 new Arrival Paramount Pictures $24,074,047 2,317 $10,390 $24,074,047 3 4 new Almost Christmas Universal $15,134,235 2,376 $6,370 $15,134,235 3 Very nice hold, to be sure; third-best Marvel Studios hold ever, behind Thor and Iron Man, I believe. But it gets a tiny asterisk with the Veterans-Day-on-Friday help.
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8 hours ago, No Prisoners said:
We are talking about a 10-20% hit.
AS could have done high 300s perhaps. Before you say no. It was safe to assume it would have done low 100s like lone survivor. 350m was an unexpected insane total, no one here predicted half that much.. 380-400m is not much more crazy than 350m. If it did 220m and I say 250, some mite sat no, we'll it did 350.
TRev could have been 200m+ Again another movie not expected to do as well as it did.. You can't say 200m is impossible when it did 180. It's not proof either way, we can't say exactly what would have happened otherwise.
JW was expected to do 300m~. If an HDRIP was leaked before it opened and did 550m and I said piracy cost it 100m, I would be laughed because it over performed and no way it does TA numbers.
Baumer says he goes to 100 movies a year but watched this at home, maybe he sees it in the theater otherwise. I'm sure he wasn't the only one when you see tens of thousands leaching several files on several sites at any given time after the release, very quickly it climbs into the millions. 20m people went to see TRev in the theater. It's possible that 2m people opted to stay home. Again no proof.
The proof we have in CA3s case are in the dailies, weekly's and multipliers. Which are deviating from the tent pole norm with the comparable movie stats I presented due the leak after OW. It's not just BKB and I. Matrix noticed and a few others have commented on other threads. Most don't speak up here with you leading the charge on making a mockery of it.
In the end, it's just a theory, and it's up to each of us to decide how likely/unlikely it is that the leaked version was much of a factor in CW's box office or not. This movie's target audience would seem to be smack dab in the middle of the demographic that is most likely to seek out and find a decent version online. Unless someone conducts a survey specifically asking movie-goers about this topic - and in regard to this film in particular - all we can do is discuss and theorize why CW's legs haven't been as strong as its "quality" (another highly subjective term, obviously) would indicate they should've been. To dismiss "The Leak Theory" completely seems just as foolish IMO as someone claiming with 100% certainty that the leak was THE key factor.
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17 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
Captain America: Civil War 3rd weekend drop bigger than BVS
piracyyyyyyyyyyyy
Finally something for DC fans to crow about!
With Memorial Day coming up, CW's 4th weekend hold will be much better than BvS's 61.4% drop! 
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4 hours ago, CJohn said:
The conspiracy theory guys still need to explain me how American Sniper and The Revenant did so much with crystal clean copies available online 1 month before their wide releases.
They always avoid explaining this one.
Just to play devil's advocate: AS and The Revenant played to a considerably older audience than CW. My in-laws see maybe two movies a year; they've never seen an MCU flick in the theater, though. They saw both AS and the Revenant at the cinema, though! And they have definitely never illegally (or legally!) downloaded a movie. I doubt piracy is much of an issue for the over-50 crowd.
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10 minutes ago, CJohn said:
Disagree about Incredible Hulk, agree about the other 3. There is an important character returning from Incredible Hulk.
"References" are one thing, but IMO the biggest concern is which films you really need to see to clearly follow what happens in CW. I'd say if you'd seen WS and AOU, you'll be fine. All the important points from CA:TFA are covered in WS, so even that first Cap flick is optional. You certainly didn't need to see Incredible Hulk to figure out who Ross was - in CW, he's the Secretary of State, and his past relationship with Banner is never brought up. When he asks if they know where Banner is, to the average viewer it's a reasonable question that any concerned high-ranking gov't official. You don't need to know Banner's/Ross's long history. Thinking about it, I wonder if maybe there was a line or two from an Avenger (similar to Ant-Man's "Never trust a Stark!" proclamation) about Ross, that maybe got cut..? You'd think Banner would've mentioned Betty and Thunderbolt at some point while hanging with the team, at least to his Science Bro Tony. That might've made Tony a bit more reluctant to sign off on Ross's plan, though. But I digress... Sure, there are a few dots connected from pretty much every MCU flick in CW, but WS and AOU are by far the most relevant and important to this story.
Having written that: The MCU will probably be ripe for a reboot after Infinity War. The comic book universe has certainly run into this problem over the decades, where it became more and more difficult to follow what was going on because of all the history that not only the readers needed to keep track of, but also the creators. Keeping track of the history of the movie characters must be getting more challenging with every movie... Feige's done an amazing job so far, all things considered.
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1 hour ago, Baumer said:
I agree that it had epic large scale battle but it certainly didn't have an interesting film from start to finish.
I'm admittedly a bit perplexed at CW's run. Sure, it's done fine and Marvel/Disney are no doubt thrilled with it. I did expect smaller drops, though, based on my entirely illogical, microscopic sample size of my friends, co-workers, and family. CW is the first MCU flick since the first Avengers movie where literally everyone I know personally really liked it. Comics fans, movie fans, and acquaintances who barely pay attention to pop culture, they all gave this film high marks when we've discussed it. Throw in the critical ravings, along with the relative lack of competition, and these drops are even more bewildering to me.
Oh, well, it broke a billion and stomped BvS, so it's all good... if a bit of a head-scratcher.
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1 minute ago, No Prisoners said:
Not prophet.
A prophet has a vision
I just see it in the numbers.
Involved in the stock market for decades helps.
Making several mil lends confidence.
Maybe someday you'll get there. Get rid of the baaa though.
Not being a smartass, but how's your track record the last few elections? I follow this site because it, too, "follows the money," and it really likes Clinton's chances:
https://electionbettingodds.com/week.html
Trump's chances have been rising a bit of late, though.
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Gambling is illegal at Bushwood...!
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Eh, I'm kinda over tracking CA:CW. It's BO has been fine, without blowing anyone's doors off. It will accomplish the main goals I set for it:
Clobber BvS, DOM and WW
Break 1 billion, quieting the Superhero Fatigue crowd
Most importantly, it entertained the bejeesus out of me
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Just imagine, say, 10 years ago that someone posted on here that a movie featuring Captain America fighting Iron Man would outgross - easily - a movie featuring Batman vs Superman. Might've been the most scoffed-at post in this forum's history! And yet here we are.
It's a credit to Marvel's amazing success since 2008 that there are still a few folks calling CW's gross a disappointment. Me and my Disney stock are thrilled with it! ?
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7 minutes ago, moviesRus said:
Yes, $500,000 less than expected. Burn down the studio.
Fire the Russos! Demote Kevin Feige!!!
I see a better-than-expected hold for CW this weekend as the competition is super-weak. I think Money Monster is going to bomb.
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4 minutes ago, Jordanstine said:
CW was 1.48% lower than estimates.
Anyone remember what BvS estimates were when on it's 1st weekend? I know actuals ended up being $166.1 million.
Estimate was $170.1 mil; actual was $166.0, a 2.4% drop...
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14 minutes ago, CaptainJackSparrow said:
Who else has seen Civil War twice?
Four times: Two advanced screenings, another freebie on Thursday (courtesy of my favorite comic-book shop renting out a local theater), and finally paid to see it on Saturday night cuz my brother-in-law was in town. It doesn't quite hold up to multiple viewings as well as The Avengers did, but the fun parts are still REALLY fun.
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14 hours ago, Telemachos said:
Eh, I wouldn't go that far.
CRYSTAL SKULL is around the level of a WINTER SOLDER or CATCHING FIRE or INTERSTELLAR.
But yeah, JW is horrible.
Not sure if serious, or maybe I missed an under-the-radar movie about a cold-weather welder...? I mean, I don't hate Crystal Skull like a lot of fans do, but... Don't most of us agree that CA:TWS>>>>>>>>>>IJATKOTCS? Is that even up for discussion?
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So... any chance at all that TFA sneaks back into the top spot this weekend? I see a 10% chance!
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2 hours ago, upprdeck said:
I am not sure that thinking of this is a trilogy is correct. its the 8th , 9th movie.. this is not a short arc like Avangers, its a 40 year arc, that was building and diminished because of the story in 1-2-3, even in still setting records. This one brought the gang back together, and by that i mean families, kids, grandparents and the 50-60 yr olds who loved star wars.
How many series span enough time to have to 3 sets of fans, two of which love their trilogy?
A somewhat related question came to me recently: Mark Hamill will be starring as Luke Skywalker in 2017's Episode 8, 40 years after "Star Wars." Has any actor in motion-picture history appeared in two big-screen films as the same character, 40 years apart??? (This will also apply to Fisher, Daniels, Mayhew, etc.)
Leonard Nimoy played Spock on the big screen from 1979 til 2013, but that's only 34 years (TV shows don't count!). I guess you could argue that Moe Howard played "Moe" (and Larry Fine played "Larry") from 1930 til 1970, but those were mostly shorts, and while his characters were usually named Moe, it's highly debatable whether he was actually playing the same character in every appearance. I think this is another title that the SW gang can claim!
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23 minutes ago, JonathanLB said:
It's great to see that list of the films that have held #1, but as was mentioned the glaring flaw there is Jurassic Park at no point was the highest grossing movie ever made in North America. E.T. was #1 from, as I understand, 1983 (it didn't reach #1 in its release year, did it?) or late 1982 until 1997 when Star Wars re-claimed the crown, then in 1998 Titanic took that crown. There was no Jurassic Park anywhere to be found. It was a nice try on that movie's part, but E.T. and Star Wars saw enough re-releases to make sure that wasn't happening.
Oops, I stand corrected! I believe JP did hold the top worldwide spot until Titanic (or Star Wars) overtook it...? But, yeah, JP never held the DOM title - my mistake.
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So I think this is accurate, but feel free to correct any errors. The All-Time Domestic B.O. Champs (start year indicates year it overtook previous record-holder, NOT film's release date):
1915-1939: Birth of a Nation
1939-1966: Gone With The Wind
1966-1971: The Sound of Music
1971-1972: Gone With The Wind (earned enough in 1971 re-release to overtake “Sound of Music")
1972-1976: The Godfather
1976-1978: Jaws
1978-1983: Star Wars
1983-1997: E.T. The Extra-Terrestrial
1997-1998: Star Wars (re-released in 1997; overtook “Jurassic Park”)
1998-2010: Titanic
2010-2016: Avatar
2016-????: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
As noted elsewhere, SW:TFA is the first sequel to hold the title.
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With Memorial Day coming up, CW's 4th weekend hold will be much better than BvS's 61.4% drop! 
Weekend Thread 7/7-7/9 | ABSOLUTELY NO SPOILERS ALLOWED | SMH 117M, DM3 34M, BD 12.5M, WW 10.1M, TF5 6.3M, Biggus Dickus 3.65
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I don't think it's a sure thing at all, but I do like it's chances better than BP's. I think the excitement of Thor + Hulk (along with the allure of one of Marvel's best trailers ever) will bring more people to the theater than TDW did.