Corpse

That would require an increase over all three previous films in yen and admissions. That was never going to happen, guys. $70 million is attainable even with a $9/10 million opening weekend. A multiplier of 6 is very likely, and a 7 shouldn't be too difficult to achieve. If it breaks 1 billion yen ($12/13 million) this weekend, then $80 million comes into play.

It will include the previews, yes, but that shouldn't diminish the opening. The 190,000 that went to the previews last weekend would have definitely come out opening weekend anyway.And always keep in mind opening weekends in Japan are never big, at least when compared to the rest of the world. Usually just 1-3 films make more than $10 million each year.

June 30 - July 1 Weekend Forecast 1 (new) The Amazing Spider-Man (Sony) ¥750-800 million ($9.5-10 million), Week 1 2 (1) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) ¥120-130 million ($1.5-1.7 million), Week 3 3 (2) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) ¥100-110 million ($1.2-1.4 million), Week 4 4 (new) The Rum Diary (Showgate) ¥70-75 million ($900-950,000), Week 1 5 (4) Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥65-70 million ($800-850,000), Week 10 6 (3) MIB 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥55-60 million ($700-750,000), Week 6 7 (new) Rinjo: The Movie (TOEI) ¥50-55 million ($625-675,000), Week 1 8 (5) LOVE, Masao-jun Ga Iku (Shochiku) ¥35-40 million ($450-500,000), Week 2 9 (6) The Final Judgement (Nikkatsu) ¥30-35 million ($375-425,000), Week 5 10 (7) Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥20-25 million ($250-300,000), Week 7 Sony, Hollywood, has alot riding on The Amazing Spider-Man this weekend. If it fails, or even disappoints a little, 2012 is all but lost for Hollywood and will become the worst year on record (at least in the past 15 or so years) for them and they're likely to finish below a 30% market share. Sony even managed to get the film on 1/3 of all screens in the country, easily setting a new screen count record. But will that be enough? I'm not sure. Last weekend's previews were solid, but lower than Terminator Salvation and Resident Evil: Extinction. One reason for this may have been that last week/weekend was poor overall, but regardless it wasn't an encouraging sign for Spider-Man. On the positive side, the massive screen count is nearly double those films and the market is wide open and prepared for Summer's blockbusters. Good reviews will also help, though they'll likely only matter later on. At the moment I'm going to predict it'll achieve the biggest opening weekend of the year with ¥750-800 million (about $10 million), but I won't be surprised if it does reach the 1 billion yen ($12.5 million) target it's been expected to all year. For the curious, an opening near my prediction would result in a final total between 5-6 billion yen ($70 million avg). Dark Shadows appears to be losing a lot of screens (it's playing on 148 Toho Cinema screens, and that's reportedly being cut to 14 (!)), and there are a couple more openers that could bump it out of the Top 10. The first is Always, a Korea Import being distributed by Pony Canyon. The other is Beyond the One Day: Story of 2PM & 2AM, a documentary of the band, being released exclusively at Toho Cinemas by Toho's Video Division. Weekend Milestone Watch: Snow White and the Huntsman will become the 36th film this year to exceed the 1 billion yen ($12.5 million) mark. Thermae Romae may hit 5.6 billion yen ($71 million) and achieve ten weeks in the Top 5. MIB 3 should break 3 billion yen ($38 million) and become the seventh film this year to reach that milestone if it can avoid a collapse caused by Spider-Man's opening. Major 3D releases don't co-exist very well.

Impossible in Yen and admissions, and highly unlikely in USD. I think Sith holds the opening weekend in USD, but I'm not 100% sure (don't trust BOM). Either way, just because it doesn't open to record numbers doesn't equal disappointment. Japan isn't a country where record openings and totals happen often like the rest of the world. Matrix Reloaded still holds the opening weekend record in Yen and admissions. It's definitely surprising. I'm working on the Weekend Forecast now, but I'm holding off on posting it since reports of screen count loss for holdovers is being reported and it's never happened on this scale before. I'm not saying holdovers are losing a majority of their screens, just more than usual. The film I'm most interesting in finding data on is MIB 3 since it could collapse being a 3D release and playing on over 800 screens itself.

Japan only has 3,400 movie screens and 800/900 films are released each year in Japan now. That's more than the U.S, and I think only second to India. That's a big reason this is the first time a film has ever been released on more than 1,000 screens (so many films released every month). There are also film contracts, largely with Distributor Toho, that allows some of their biggest films to never lose any screens for months and sometimes even half a year or longer in release.

It was announced today that The Amazing Spider-Man will be the first film to ever play on over 1,000 screens (1,091) this weekend.

I'm thinking around 2 billion ($25 million) but I haven't done too much research on that one yet. I don't know if I'd consider it one of the best manga ever, but it's a somewhat popular one with about 25 million copies. Also understand that the film (Part 2 of 3) was a limited release. It is a drop off of 40% from Part I released at the beginning of the year, but this past week/weekend was really weak. I've always expected around $25 million, but the new date that gives it a few more days during Obon Week could make it go a little higher.

Yes, and the exchange rate makes comparing USD totals really inaccurate. At least when determining how well a film did in USD compared to others, anyway. Yen and admissions are definitely the more accurate. The 3D premium is 300/400 yen (currently $4/5). Average Ticket Pricing Advance Ticket Children/General - 800 yen ($10) / 1,300 yen ($16.50) Senior/Children/Infant Ticket - 1,000 yen ($12.50) Students (HS, College) - 1,500 yen ($19.00) General Ticket - 1,800 yen ($22.50) 3D/IMAX Ticket - 2,100/2,200 yen ($26/27)

2012 Box Office Charts As of Sunday, 06/24: Top Grossing Films (¥1 billion+) Rank :: Revenue ¥ (billion) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (million) :: Days In Release :: Distributor 01 :: ¥5.44 / $68.96 (12.59x) :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 4.28 :: 58 :: Toho 02 :: ¥5.40 / $70.80 (9.42x) :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 4.24 :: OE :: Paramount 03 :: ¥3.57 / $44.62 (6.47x) :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 3.23 :: TE :: Toho 04 :: ¥3.34 / $42.56 (6.01x) :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 2.63 :: TE :: Toho 05 :: ¥3.25 / $41.95 (5.17x) :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 2.73 :: TE :: Toho 06 :: ¥3.08 / $40.34 (5.30x) :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 2.31 :: TE :: Toho 07 :: ¥2.86 / $36.11 (4.99x) :: MIB 3 :: May :: 1.93 :: 31 :: Toho-Towa 08 :: ¥2.51 / $31.27 (8.50x) :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 2.09 :: TE :: Asmik Ace/Toho 09 :: ¥2.37 / $29.98 (5.06x) :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 1.84 :: TE :: Toho 10 :: ¥2.12 / $26.50 (6.75x) :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 1.74 :: TE :: Toho 11 :: ¥2.04 / $25.70 (5.05x) :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 1.64 :: 37 :: Warner Bros. 12 :: ¥1.96 / $24.49 (6.46x) :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 1.67 :: TE :: Warner Bros. 13 :: ¥1.90 / $23.74 (6.01x) :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 1.45 :: OE :: Shochiku 14 :: ¥1.77 / $22.91 (6.39x) :: In Time :: Feb. :: 1.38 :: TE :: FOX 15 :: ¥1.71 / $22.01 (5.45x) :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 1.37 :: 58 :: Asmik Ace/Toho 16 :: ¥1.68 / $21.73 (6.09x) :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 1.34 :: TE :: Toho 17 :: ¥1.56 / $20.04 (3.81x) :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentai: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 1.34 :: TE :: TOEI 18 :: ¥1.53 / $19.97 (4.00x) :: Space Brothers :: May :: 1.21 :: 50 :: Toho 19 :: ¥1.51 / $19.78 (4.01x) :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 1.30 :: TE :: TOEI 20 :: ¥1.49 / $19.17 (5.10x) :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 1.17 :: TE :: Toho-Towa 21 :: ¥1.47 / $19.11 (10.42x) :: Friends: Naki On Monster Island :: Dec '10 :: 1.10 :: TE :: Toho 22 :: ¥1.43 / $18.72 (9.47x) :: Fleet Admiral, Isoroku Yamamoto :: Dec '10 :: 1.13 :: TE :: TOEI 23 :: ¥1.42 / $18.60 (6.31x) :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 1.11 :: TE :: Walt Disney 24 :: ¥1.39 / $17.87 (8.47x) :: Tale of Genji :: Dec '10 :: 1.15 :: TE :: Toho 25 :: ¥1.35 / $17.02 (5.49x) :: Sadako 3D :: May :: .941 :: 44 :: Kadokawa Pictures 26 :: ¥1.28 / $15.66 (5.54x) :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: .996 :: TE :: Sony 27 :: ¥1.19 / $15.31 (3.81x) :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: .970 :: 16 :: Toho 28 :: ¥1.18 / $15.29 (5.84x) :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 1.01 :: TE :: Toho 29 :: ¥1.17 / $14.89 (6.96x) :: Puss in Boots :: Mar. :: .898 :: TE :: Paramount 30 :: ¥1.14 / $14.81 (9.47x) :: Chronicle of My Mother :: Apr. :: .876 :: TE :: Shochiku 31 :: ¥1.12 / $14.58 (8.11x) :: Inazuma Eleven GO :: Dec '10 :: .926 :: TE :: Toho 32 :: ¥1.09 / $14.13 (4.96x) :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: .754 :: TE :: Toho-Towa 33 :: ¥1.03 / $12.70 (5.28x) :: Crayon Shin-chan (2012) :: Apr. :: .963 :: TE :: Toho 34 :: ¥1.03 / $12.67 (5.88x) :: Hugo :: Mar. :: .732 :: TE :: Paramount 35 :: ¥1.02 / $12.65 (5.23x) :: Pretty Cure All Stars New Stage: Friends of the Future :: Mar. :: .881 :: TE :: TOEI [JAPANESE FILMS] 69.0% Market Share [iMPORTED FILMS] 31.0% Market Share Thermae Romae becomes the highest grossing film of the year in yen and admissions but since the yen was even stronger during M:I-4's run, it's not quite there yet in USD. I usually adjust for these things, but even the smallest adjustment for big films changes too much. Dark Shadows becomes the 11th film this year (3rd for Hollywood) to break the 2 billion yen mark. Glow of Fireflies debuts on the charts after 16 days in release, becoming the 35th film this year to make 1 billion yen. Snow White and the Huntsman will cross 1 billion yen this week and debut on the charts soon. It's 10-day total is 854 million yen ($10.8 million) on 686,904 admissions. *************************************************************** *************************************************************** Top Opening Weekends (2-Days ONLY, ¥200 million+) Rank :: Revenue ¥ (million) / $ (million) :: Title :: Release :: Admissions (thousand) :: Screen Count :: Distributor 01 :: ¥629.74 / $7.82 :: Detective Conan: The Eleventh Striker :: Apr. :: 540.98 :: 351 :: Toho 02 :: ¥581.04 / $7.50 :: Kaibutsu-Kun: The Movie :: Nov '10 :: 431.09 :: 446 :: Toho 03 :: ¥573.57 / $7.35 :: MIB 3 :: May :: 372.97 :: 979 :: Toho-Towa 04 :: ¥573.22 / $7.34 :: Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol :: Dec '10 :: 437.75 :: 636 ::Paramount 05 :: ¥555.66 / $7.22 :: ALWAYS: Sunset on Third Street '64 :: Jan. :: 421.27 :: 473 :: Toho 06 :: ¥552.62 / $6.86 :: Doraemon: Nobita and the Island of Miracles :: Mar. :: 485.47 :: 359 :: Toho 07 :: ¥468.70 / $5.81 :: SPEC: The Movie :: Apr. :: 351.47 :: 279 :: Toho 08 :: ¥432.55 / $5.40 :: Thermae Romae :: Apr. :: 325.69 :: 304 :: Toho 09 :: ¥410.04 / $5.06 :: Kamen Rider x Super Sentei: Super Hero Taisen :: Apr. :: 355.99 :: 292 :: TOEI 10 :: ¥404.53 / $5.05 :: Dark Shadows :: May :: 311.16 :: 571 :: Warner Bros. 11 :: ¥382.32 / $4.87 :: Space Brothers :: May :: 285.34 :: 322 :: Toho 12 :: ¥378.03 / $4.84 :: Kamen Rider × Kamen Rider Fourze & OOO: War Mega Max :: Dec '10 :: 333.13 :: 301 :: TOEI 13 :: ¥316.31 / $4.08 :: K-ON! The Movie :: Dec '10 :: 237.82 :: 137 :: Shochiku 14 :: ¥314.89 / $3.97 :: We Were There: Part II :: Apr. :: 242.92 :: 297 :: Asmik Ace/Toho 15 :: ¥314.70 / $3.96 :: Liar Game: Reborn :: Mar. :: 242.19 :: 318 :: Toho 16 :: ¥313.66 / $3.95 :: Glow of Fireflies :: June :: 242.82 :: 316 :: Toho 17 :: ¥303.35 / $3.77 :: Sherlock Holmes: Game of Shadows :: Mar. :: 237.98 :: 464 :: Warner Bros. 18 :: ¥301.78 / $3.75 :: Snow White and the Huntsman :: June :: 234.87 :: 572 :: Toho-Towa 19 :: ¥295.31 / $3.67 :: We Were There: Part I :: Mar. :: 227.24 :: 295 :: Asmik Ace/Toho 20 :: ¥292.16 / $3.65 :: Battleship :: Apr. :: 237.87 :: 545 :: Toho-Towa 21 :: ¥277.13 / $3.63 :: In Time :: Feb. :: 203.05 :: 427 :: FOX 22 :: ¥276.41 / $3.62 :: Shizanmono: The Movie :: Jan. :: 217.18 :: 377 :: Toho 23 :: ¥246.41 / $3.08 :: Sadako 3D :: May :: 154.15 :: 214 :: Kadakowa Pictures 24 :: ¥230.89 / $2.98 :: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo :: Feb. :: 178.36 :: 431 :: Sony 25 :: ¥225.05 / $2.88 :: Real Steel :: Dec '10 :: 176.25 :: 531 :: Walt Disney 26 :: ¥219.51 / $2.83 :: The Adventures of Tintin :: Dec '10 :: 148.70 :: 895 :: Toho-Towa 27 :: ¥202.39 / $2.63 :: Robo-G :: Jan. :: 164.69 :: 279 :: Toho [JAPANESE FILMS] [iMPORTED FILMS] The Amazing Spider-Man will impact the opening weekend charts this weekend. It's previews this past weekend totaled ¥267 million ($3.4 million), which would have been good enough to make the charts alone. [subscript]-KEY- New Entry Indicates a film still in release or being tracked. Days in Release: TE (Tracking Ends, Awaiting OE/FT) / OE (Official Estimate) / FT (Final Total)[/subscript]

It should have been moved up a full week to take advantage of Obon Week, but even a few days during the holidays is better than none which the old date gave it. Obon Week is August 11-19, but the 12-16 are the busiest days.

The Avengers' release date has been moved up from August 17th to August 14th.This is awesome news as it gives it a few days during Obon Week now. The move is also a sign of confidence in the film by producers and the distributor.

It usually doesn't happen all at once like it appears to have this weekend, thus making it an exceptionally bad weekend. Even this years audience favorite, Thermae Romae, appears to have dropped 40%. Weekends start to become weaker in early July as weekdays become much stronger. I'm still confused as to what happened exactly, but I'm just guessing the weekend was greatly deflated due to the weekdays.I'm not sure if Snow White fell from estimates, no more data has been released. More weekend data will be released over the next 12 hours though, and I'll update everything in the morning.

June 23-24 Weekend Admissions Ranking 1 (1) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) Week 2 2 (2) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) Week 3 3 (3) MIB 3 (Toho-Towa) Week 5 4 (4) Thermae Romae (Toho) Week 9 5 (new) LOVE, Masao-jun Ga Iku (Shochiku) Week 1 6 (6) The Final Judgement (Nikkatsu) Week 4 7 (5) Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) Week 6 8 (7) We Bought a Zoo (FOX) Week 3 9 (new) Berserk The Golden Age Arc II (Warner Bros.) Week 1 10 (8) Girls (Toho) Week 5 The Amazing Spider-Man is now estimated to have made 267 million yen ($3.4 million) on 190,000 admissions over the weekend in previews. That's lower than expected, but this weekend was definitely much weaker than expected, too (explained above). LOVE, Masao debuted on 231 screens and grossed 56,609,100 yen ($720,000) on 47,930 admissions over the weekend. Berserk The Golden Age Arc II settles for ninth, making 27,756,900 yen ($350,000) on 19,117 admissions across 93 screens for the weekend. Dark Shadows exceeded 2 billion yen ($25 million) after six weeks.

The Amazing Spider-Man is now estimated to have made 267 million ($3.4 million) on 190,000 admissions over the weekend.This weekend however was just really, really weak. I'm about to post the weekend rankings, and the numbers available are even worse than the estimates from last night. There's no explanation as to why everything dropped nearly 50% or more, but I think it might have been due to Summer. I'll explain.Weekdays in Japan often match the Weekends year-round, 50/50 most of the time with a few exceptions. During Jan.-Feb. weekdays are a little weaker than weekends, and in July-Sept. weekdays are a little stronger than weekends. It's still a bit early, and summer break doesn't begin for another 3 weeks in Japan, but I think July weekdays may have kicked in:MIB 3's grossed 103,685,450 yen ($1.3 million) this weekend, down 49.9% compared to last weekend. But it made 238,660,350 yen ($3 million) since last Sunday meaning weekdays accounted for almost 57% of it's weekly gross. That's about 7/8% more than the past several weeks. If the rest of the holdovers have a 55%+ weekday share this week, it would confirm my explanation as to why this weekend was weak. Weekend Rankings will be posted soon.

Most expectations are in the 700/800 million yen range (about $10 million). Previews will be included, so I'm not making any prediction until the estimate is either confirmed or updated tomorrow. I still believe one of the major theater chains didn't report or wasn't included in this weekend's estimates, which will make a pretty big difference in the morning. I just find it hard to believe most holdovers dropped near 50% or more.SM3 had a record 5-day gross in USD due to opening during Golden Week and benefiting from 4 National Holidays. I'll post a Spider-Man box office history article later in the week.

I would say it's solid. But that may not be an accurate figure because weekend estimates look really low, possibly due to a major theater chain not included in the data reported. Weekend Rankings will be released in the morning, and I'll be sure to post them before work, promise.

I don't think so. Spider-Man was playing in a few more theaters than Snow White meaning it's screen count was probably near 600 this weekend. I'm trying to find out if a major theater chain wasn't included in the data because Spider-Man does indeed seem a little low, not to mention the unusual huge drops for about every film this weekend. I'll know for sure tomorrow morning (in 12 hours) but will update if I find anything out before then.

Bottom of Page 7. But, the weekend estimates look off for some reason meaning Spider-Man's may also be off. I'll update tomorrow morning (13 hours as of this post).

Snow White will do about $20 million.Definitely don't look much into Spider-Man's preview numbers. Pre-sales and the like very rarely matter at all. And I'm still not liking those weekend estimates. I'm thinking the data may have been incomplete, not accounting for one of the major theater chains. It's rare, but that has happened in the past.

June 23-24 Weekend Estimates 1 (1) Snow White and the Huntsman (Toho-Towa) ¥189,733,000 ($2.6 million), -37.5%, Week 2 2 (2) Glow of Fireflies (Toho) ¥157,417,000 ($2 million), -33.4%, Week 3 3 (3) MIB 3 (Toho-Towa) ¥116,334,000 ($1.5 million), -43.8%, Week 5 4 (4) Thermae Romae (Toho) ¥87,960,000 ($1.1 million), -42.1%, Week 9 5 (new) LOVE, Masao-kun Ga Iku (Shochiku) ¥71,956,000 ($900,000), Week 1 6 (5) Dark Shadows (Warner Bros.) ¥41,626,000 ($520,000), -45.6%, Week 6 7 (new) Berserk The Golden Age Arc II (Warner Bros.) ¥27,913,000 ($350,000), Week 1 8 (7) We Bought a Zoo (FOX) ¥22,464,000 ($280,000), -58.4%, Week 3 9 (8) Girls (Toho) ¥20,649,000 ($260,000), -57.7%, Week 5 10 (9) Sadako 3D (Kadokawa Pictures) ¥20,069,000 ($250,000), -53%, Week 7 :er: Some pretty harsh drops occurred this weekend and I'm not sure why. It resembles a post-Holiday weekend even. Estimates have been lower than actuals all month, but even the usual 2-4% uptick with actuals won't make this weekend look any better. The Final Judgement was also not included in the estimates again, but it's definitely there and should rank between Berserk II and We Bought a Zoo. The Amazing Spider-Man did enough in previews to debut on top, but like every other film that received previews in the past, it won't chart this weekend and will instead have what it earned in previews included in it's opening weekend. Whatever caused these large drops this weekend may have also played a factor into Spider-Man's lower than expected (but still very solid) preview returns as well.

No, Resident Evil IV was also just 2-days. Spider-Man did less for sure, but there may have been a reason for that due to the weekend estimates (posting below now).

The Amazing Spider-Man sold 200,304 tickets to gross approx. ¥276,600,514 ($3.5 million) in previews this weekend from 346 theaters. The 3D share isn't known yet, so the gross may rise slightly in the morning (15 hours from this post). Full weekend estimate will be up shortly.

Weekend news has been really slow so I don't have anything to report right now. In the next few hours weekend estimates should be released which may include Spider-Man preview numbers, but I have work today and won't be able to post them until tonight.

Ticket prices have been the approx. the same for about 15 years now. The general admission fee is still 1800 yen. I love that ticket prices have remained the same because it's so much easier and much more accurate to compare films this way. No need to convert for this, adjust for that, etc. Toho was suppose to lower ticket prices at some of their theaters to 1500 yen to encourage more people to come to their locations. Some locations have the lower price, but others don't. Toho's latest attempt to completely monopolize the box office (they already have a 34% market share avg. the past several years, and nearly 50% for 2012 so far) is by placing movie ticket vending machines that dispense tickets exclusively to their locations this summer. I think they're priced the same, though.

In Japan it's "Merida and the Forest of Fear" or a more direct translation is "Merida and the Terrifying Forest". The former is the official translation though.