Corpse

So there was an unfortunate router error in the system after 5PM, so the full admissions from Saturday are unknown at this time... However, based on the 2PM update and how everything was doing up until the error occurred: Your Name. was continuing to do excellent numbers and likely exceeded 200,000 admissions at the usual locations. Sunday is also looking quite strong, so there's certainly potential for over 400,000 admissions from just the usual locations alone. That'd mean it'd have a good chance of reaching 600,000 admissions over the weekend, for a debut of ¥700-800 million ($7/8 million). Pretty insane. >Shin Godzilla was holding extremely well as it has every single weekend, and based on its performance up to 5PM yesterday, a second place ranking with fifth weekend hold of 20% or better was looking likely. It's aiming for a ¥300 million+ ($3 million+) fifth weekend. >The Secret Life of Pets was also holding well, but was more inline with a typical 25/30% decline. This is the last weekend before school starts back, though, so it could improve a lot on Sunday, so a third weekend drop of 20-25% is possible. It'll probably come in around ¥275 million for its third weekend. Black Widow Business was exceeding expectations quite handily yesterday, and is definitely going to make the Top 5 in its debut, possibly on track for a ¥200 million ($2 million) debut. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows is a big disappointment, and is barely going to crack the Top 10 in its debut with an opening likely below ¥100 million (sub-$1 million). And while the first film wasn't that successful in the market, it did manage a #1 debut (though over a much weaker weekend).

Maybe, but it might be corrected tomorrow. We'll see.

Yeah, there was an error in the system due to a router failure around 5:30. So, unfortunately, Saturday's data is kinda useless now. :/

Indeed. This performance is without a doubt one of the strongest and most surprising that I've seen. There have been bigger openers, yeah, but they're from established franchises, studios, etc.. Your Name. is doing this well simply with Makoto Shinkai's reputation and incredible reviews/receptions. Next Miyazaki? Very possible judging by this performance so far.

Your Name. continues to perform extraordinarily well as the day progresses, and it's built upon its leads over every non-¥1 billion opener over the past nine months. Here's just how well it's doing compared to 2016's other notable debuts (excluding the two ¥1 billion openers): 17% ahead of Finding Dory 52% ahead of The Secret Life of Pets 56% ahead of Shin Godzilla 69% ahead of Independence Day: Resurgence 78% ahead of Zootopia It should continue to increases its lead over the three animated titles since it's not targeting kids/families like they were, too, so besting Finding Dory's debut is looking doable. A debut of 500,000+ admissions, I'd say, is almost absolute certain at this point, and honestly, over 600,000 admissions for the weekend doesn't seem unrealistic either. It'll depend on its audience breakdown, but 600,000 admissions would most likely earn it an opening comfortably over ¥700 million ($7 million), if not closer to ¥800 million ($8 million).

As of noon, Your Name. is outpacing every non-¥1 billion opener (Star Wars; Yo-Kai Watch; Detective Conan; One Piece) from the past nine months. Makoto Shinkai's looking at his first box office blockbuster with his first wide theatrical release, and it's going to score the biggest debut for an original (non-Ghibli/Pixar) animated film, too. Shinkai's earned a mighty impressive reputation with his critically-praised, award-winning, limited releases over the past 12 years, and audiences are coming out in droves to see his first wide release. Funimation secured international distribution rights months ago in anticipation of this occurring. I'll post a detailed afternoon update (~2PM) later.

(C)2016 TOHO CO.,LTD. Weekend Forecast (08/27-28) 01 (---) ¥650,000,000 ($6.4 million), 0, ¥975 million ($9.7 million), Your Name. (Toho) NEW 02 (01) ¥281,000,000 ($2.7 million), -26%, ¥5,150,000,000 ($50.3 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK5 03 (02) ¥257,000,000 ($2.5 million), -29%, ¥3,100,000,000 ($30.7 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK3 04 (03) ¥152,000,000 ($1.5 million), -36%, ¥800,000,000 ($7.9 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) WK2 05 (04) ¥141,000,000 ($1.4 million), -31%, ¥1,775,000,000 ($17.6 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK3 06 (06) ¥139,000,000 ($1.3 million), -26%, ¥6,425,000,000 ($62.3 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK7 07 (05) ¥126,000,000 ($1.2 million), -35%, ¥575,00,000 ($5.7 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) WK2 08 (---) ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million), Black Widow Business (Toho) NEW 09 (---) ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Out of the Shadows (Paramount) NEW 10 (07) ¥97,000,000 ($950,000), -32%, ¥4,725,000,000 ($45.6 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK6 Your Name., the latest critically acclaimed film from director Makoto Shinkai, is poised to deliver an incredible opening this weekend. The animated title enjoyed a huge start yesterday, likely earning over ¥300 million ($3 million+) ahead of the weekend, and its Saturday pre-sales and morning/afternoon ticket sales are very good. Makoto Shinkai is being looked upon as one of two likely candidates to succeed Hayao Miyazaki as Japan's leading animation director. All of his prior films have been met with praise from critics and audiences alike, but none have been true box office successes to make Shinkai a mainstream, household name... however, that's about to change in a significant way if Your Name. comes anywhere near the weekend forecast. An opening this high would put the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone very much in play, especially since audience scores are currently through the roof (90+% averages across the board). Also, if it's able to debut above ¥667 million, it'll claim the record for highest-opening weekend for an original animated film not released by an established studio (such as Studio Ghibli and Pixar), besting last year's The Boy and the Beast, which happens to be directed by the other candidate being viewed as a candidate to succeed Hayao Miyazaki as Japan's leading animation director, Mamoru Hosoda.

That'd be a truly extraordinary opening indeed; it'd be well over 500,000 admissions, too, since it's only in 2D. It's important to remember though that it's still summer vacation in Japan, so the Saturday increase likely won't be too high. I wouldn't rule an opening around 750 million out, but I'd rather be conservative. ANYTHING even close to 500 million, let alone more, will be very, very strong and certainly be one of the most surprising openings of the year. And legs will of course be excellent thanks to its glowing reviews and audience scores so far. I'll post the Weekend Forecast in an hour or two.

Shin Godzilla will make $60 million. It's been skewing toward a largely older audience (not quite seniors, but comfortably in the 30-50 range) based on its morning/day/night patterns and avg. ticket price, and that group probably isn't drawn in too much by Your Name.. I figure Your Name.. will play well with teens/young adults, though we'll have to wait and see to be certain after its morning/day/night pattern and avg. ticket price. And, that's not even taking into account the incredible WOM Godzilla's enjoying. It doesn't matter what opens, nor how big it is, if a film is enjoying strong WOM while still doing significant business.

Makoto Shinkai's latest, Kimi no Na wa. (Your Name.), is looking at a breakout performance this weekend. Its Friday admissions so far are exceptional. I'm not surprised, as the film was quite anticipated and it felt unusual for it to not get an earlier release in the summer. However, while certain months are stronger than others, films can still deliver incredible openings/performances in down months if they're anticipated/well-received. Makoto Shinka is one of Japan's most popular animated directors, and along with Mamoru Hosoda (who has already making a household name for himself, and his studio), is being regarded as Hayao Miyazaki's successor(s) as Japan's next big director. Edit: Dunno why this post came out highlight liked this.

The $38 million is coming from a report from LAST WEEK, on Wednesday, its 20th day in release which marked the end of the Obon Festival. For some reason, English sources are going with it as the current total (Eiga as well, which is very weird). I'm guessing the Obon Holiday period threw off the reporting at some point, which resulted in the misinformation going around. bunkatsushin.com is a Japanese trade paper that also offers online services for subscribers and is where I get the majority of the weekend numbers from. Eiga, Moviewalker, and a few other Japanese sites also provide some figures each week. I've been subscribed to bunkatsushin for years. I doubt the article I'm about to link you to can be viewed (sometimes they have FREE articles to attract new subscribers), so I'm going to copy and post this weekend's chart (just this one time, though) that includes Shin Godzilla's numbers just in case: http://www.bunkatsushin.com/news/article.aspx?id=119753 Shin Godzilla is clearly at 4.506 billion (~$44 million) and has sold 3,097,896 admissions as of August 21st, its 24th day in release.

2016 #1 Films 12/05-06: ¥362 million ($3.0 million) - Spectre (Sony) WK1 12/12-13: ¥311 million ($2.6 million) - Orange (Toho) WK1 12/19-20: ¥1.25 billion ($10.3 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK1* 12/26-27: ¥726 million ($6.0 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK2* 01/02-03: ¥826 million ($6.8 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK3 01/09-10: ¥619 million ($5.3 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK4 01/16-17: ¥387 million ($3.3 million) - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) WK5 01/23-24: ¥616 million ($5.2 million) - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) WK1 01/30-31: ¥604 million ($5.0 million) - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) WK2 02/06-07: ¥496 million ($4.2 million) - The Martian (Fox) WK1 02/13-14: ¥407 million ($3.6 million) - The Martian (Fox) WK2 02/20-21: ¥285 million ($2.5 million) - The Martian (Fox) WK3 02/27-28: ¥214 million ($1.9 million) - The Martian (Fox) WK4* 03/05-06: ¥637 million ($5.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK1 03/12-13: ¥485 million ($4.3 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK2 03/19-20: ¥399 million ($3.6 million) - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) WK3 03/26-27: ¥639 million ($5.7 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK1 04/02-03: ¥393 million ($3.5 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK2 04/09-10: ¥201 million ($1.9 million) - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) WK3 04/16-17: ¥1.21 billion ($11.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK1 04/23-24: ¥679 million ($6.1 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK2 04/30-05/01: ¥562 million ($5.3 million) - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) WK3 05/07-08: ¥387 million ($3.6 million) - Zootopia (Disney) WK1^ 05/14-15: ¥458 million ($4.2 million) - Zootopia (Disney) WK2^ 05/21-22: ¥504 million ($4.6 million) - Zootopia (Disney) WK3^ 05/28-29: ¥439 million ($4.0 million) - Zootopia (Disney) WK4^ 06/04-05: ¥383 million ($3.6 million) - Deadpool (Fox) WK1 06/11-12: ¥354 million ($3.3 million) - 64: Part 2 (Toho) WK1 06/18-19: ¥200 million ($1.9 million) - Zootopia (Disney) WK5*^ 06/25-26: ¥258 million ($2.5 million) - Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) WK1 07/02-03: ¥425 million ($4.2 million) - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) WK1 07/09-10: ¥570 million ($5.6 million) - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) WK1 07/16-17: ¥745 million ($7.1 million) - Finding Dory (Disney) WK1 07/23-24: ¥1.15 billion ($10.9 million) - One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK1 07/30-31: ¥624 million ($6.1 million) - Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK1 08/06-07: ¥539 million ($5.3 million) - Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK2 08/13-14: ¥467 million ($4.6 million) - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK1 08/20-21: ¥380 million ($3.8 million) - Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK3*^ Legend: ¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre) *: #1 in weekend gross, but not in weekend admissions. ^: #1 achieved after debut weekend/non-consecutive.

2016 - Top Grossing Films Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Days in Release] - Film (Distributor) ¥11.58 billion ($96.0 million) / 7.45 million [F] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) #19 All-Time ¥10 billion ↨ ¥7.61 billion ($70.5 million) / 5.90 million [F] - Zootopia (Disney) #67 All-Time ¥6.31 billion ($57.9 million) / 4.93 million [F] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) #94 All-Time ¥6.04 billion ($58.6 million) / 4.96 million [37] - Finding Dory (Disney) ¥5.53 billion ($46.5 million) / 5.01 million [F] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) ¥5 billion ↨ ¥4.61 billion ($39.6 million) / 3.60 million [F] - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) ¥4.51 billion ($44.0 million) / 3.09 million [24] - Shin Godzilla (Toho) ¥4.47 billion ($43.1 million) / 3.32 million [30] - One Piece Film Gold (Toei) ¥4.12 billion ($36.7 million) / 3.63 million [F] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) ¥3.51 billion ($31.4 million) / 3.11 million [F] - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) ¥3.51 billion ($30.9 million) / 2.42 million [F] - The Martian (Fox) ¥3.22 billion ($26.8 million) / 2.72 million [E] - Orange (Toho) ¥3 billion ↨ ¥2.85 billion ($23.8 million) / 2.18 million [E] - Spectre (Sony) ¥2.63 billion ($25.3 million) / 1.77 million [51] - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) ¥2.59 billion ($23.8 million) / 1.71 million [E] - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) ¥2.54 billion ($24.3 million) / 1.74 million [E] - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) ¥2.31 billion ($22.9 million) / 1.88 million [11] - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) ¥2.16 billion ($20.6 million) / 1.72 million [E] - Evergreen Love (Shochiku) ¥2.13 billion ($19.7 million) / 1.82 million [F] - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) ¥2.03 billion ($19.2 million) / 1.40 million [E] - Deadpool (Fox ¥2 billion ↨ ¥1.93 billion ($17.9 million) / 1.56 million [F] - 64: Part 1 (Toho) ¥1.86 billion ($16.9 million) / 1.21 million [F] - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) ¥1.83 billion ($18.0 million) / 1.67 million [37] - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) ¥1.80 billion ($15.1 million) / 1.52 million [E] - Living With My Mother (Shochiku) ¥1.69 billion ($15.9 million) / 1.40 million [E] - 64: Part 2 (Toho) ¥1.69 billion ($15.0 million) / 1.35 million [E] - The Good Dinosaur (Disney) ¥1.63 billion ($15.7 million) / 1.24 million [37] - High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) ¥1.62 billion ($14.8 million) / 1.20 million [F] - I Am a Hero (Toho) ¥1.52 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.21 million [E] - Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei) ¥1.50 billion ($13.8 million) / 1.26 million [E] - Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) ¥1.45 billion ($13.6 million) / 1.10 million [E] - Too Young to Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥1.42 billion ($12.8 million) / 1.14 million [E] - The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) ¥1.37 billion ($13.6 million) / 0.98 million [11] - The Jungle Book (Disney) ¥1.25 billion ($11.2 million) / 1.11 million [E] - What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku) ¥1.23 billion ($11.3 million) / 1.04 million [E] - The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) ¥1.21 billion ($11.2 million) / 0.99 million [E] - Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) ¥1.19 billion ($11.0 million) / 1.00 million [E] - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) ¥1.19 billion ($10.8 million) / 0.92 million [E] - If Cats Disappeared From the World (Toho) ¥1.18 billion ($10.4 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Summit of the Gods (Toho) ¥1.16 billion ($10.3 million) / 0.98 million [E] - The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate) ¥1.15 billion ($9.7 million) / 0.97 million [E] - Persona Non Grata (Toho) ¥1.02 billion ($10.1 million) / 0.86 million [16] - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) ¥1 billion ↑ Legend: ¥10 billion+ (Uber-Blockbuster) / ¥5 billion+ (Blockbuster) / ¥3 billion+ (Hit) / ¥2 billion+ (Respectable) / ¥1 billion+ (Commercial Success)

2016 - Top Opening Weekends Gross ¥ ($) / Admissions [Screen Count] - Film (Distributor) ¥1.245 billion ($10.3 million) / 800,258 [958] - Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Disney) ¥1.209 billion ($11.1 million) / 933,781 [348] - Detective Conan: The Darkest Nightmare (Toho) ¥1.155 billion ($10.9 million) / 820,830 [739] - One Piece Film Gold (Toei) ¥1.058 billion ($8.7 million) / 974,557 [434] - Yo-Kai Watch: Great King Enma and the 5 Stories, Nyan! (Toho) ¥1 billion ↨ ¥745.5 million ($7.1 million) / 553,066 [511] - Finding Dory (Disney) ¥639.1 million ($5.7 million) / 544,641 [319] - Assassination Classroom: Graduation (Toho) ¥637.0 million ($5.6 million) / 544,816 [374] - Doraemon: Nobita and the Birth of Japan (Toho) ¥624.6 million ($6.1 million) / 412,302 [441] - Shin Godzilla (Toho) ¥615.9 million ($5.2 million) / 465,956 [325] - Nobunaga Concerto (Toho) ¥570.2 million ($5.6 million) / 381,521 [963] - Independence Day: Resurgence (Fox) ¥500 million ↨ ¥496.0 million ($4.2 million) / 330,223 [841] - The Martian (Fox) ¥467.4 million ($4.6 million) / 370,046 [363] - The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) ¥448.8 million ($4.2 million) / 322,943 [625] - Captain America: Civil War (Disney) ¥445.8 million ($4.0 million) / 329,513 [471] - Zootopia (Disney) ¥427.3 million ($4.1 million) / 323,030 [312] - High & Low: The Movie (Shochiku) ¥425.4 million ($4.2 million) / 273,209 [979] - Alice Through the Looking Glass (Disney) ¥400.5 million ($3.7 million) / 337,108 [334] - Crayon Shin-chan: Great Assault on the Dreaming World (Toho) ¥383.3 million ($3.6 million) / 248,473 [724] - Deadpool (Fox) ¥371.3 million ($3.3 million) / 231,377 [717] - Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice (Warner Bros.) ¥362.2 million ($3.0 million) / 262,663 [591] - Spectre (Sony) ¥354.1 million ($3.3 million) / 282,693 [321] - 64: Part 2 (Toho) ¥342.0 million ($3.1 million) / 264,270 [307] - Evergreen Love (Shochiku) ¥323.9 million ($3.1 million) / 289,971 [366] - Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) ¥311.8 million ($2.6 million) / 261,179 [303] - Orange (Toho) ¥302.1 million ($3.0 million) / 209,916 [676] - The Jungle Book (Disney) ¥300 million ↨ ¥291.2 million ($2.4 million) / 217,273 [252] - Saraba Abunai Deka: Long Goodbye (Toei) ¥258.1 million ($2.5 million) / 188,028 [288] - Too Young To Die! (Toho/Asmik Ace) ¥257.2 million ($2.4 million) / 203,703 [319] - 64: Part 1 (Toho) ¥244.4 million ($2.1 million) / 197,460 [336] - Living With My Mother (Shochiku) ¥237.1 million ($2.3 million) / 160,260 [701] - Ghostbusters (Sony) ¥237.1 million ($2.1 million) / 191,696 [380] - The Good Dinosaur (Disney) ¥233.6 million ($2.1 million) / 192,506 [285] - Wolf Girl and Black Prince (Warner Bros.) ¥225.7 million ($2.0 million) / 159,964 [284] - I Am a Hero (Toho) ¥222.8 million ($1.8 million) / 181,551 [292] - Kamen Rider X Kamen Rider Ghost & Drive Movie Wars (Toei) ¥221.7 million ($2.0 million) / 169,500 [329] - The Town Where Only I Am Missing (Warner Bros.) ¥216.3 million ($2.0 million) / 193,226 [294] - Chihayafuru - Part 2 (Toho) ¥211.0 million ($2.1 million) / 174,438 [301] - Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) ¥209.5 million ($1.8 million) / 165,220 [322] - The Summit of the Gods (Toho) ¥200 million ↨ ¥198.5 million ($1.9 million) / 140,581 [352] - Sadako vs Kayako (Kadokawa) ¥196.6 million ($1.9 million) / 163,736 [281] - Yell to the Blue Sky (Toho) ¥194.9 million ($1.8 million) / 159,960 [308] - The Magnificent Nine (Shochiku) ¥190.7 million ($1.7 million) / 157,680 [160] - The Black Devil and the White Prince (Showgate) ¥187.3 million ($1.8 million) / 147,179 [346] - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) ¥184.7 million ($1.7 million) / 141,691 [290] - If Cats Disappeared From the World (Toho) ¥179.5 million ($1.6 million) / 132,848 [366] - The Revenant (Fox) ¥179.0 million ($1.6 million) / 146,299 [298] - Chihayafuru - Part 1 (Toho) ¥177.1 million ($1.5 million) / 131,973 [108] - Kizumonogatari - Part 1: Blood and Iron (Toho Video Division) ¥173.0 million ($1.5 million) / 151,422 [320] - What a Wonderful Family (Shochiku) ¥160.7 million ($1.6 million) / 123,734 [496] - The Legend of Tarzan (Warner Bros.) ¥155.3 million ($1.4 million) / 123,702 [307] - Kamen Rider 1 (Toei) ¥153.9 million ($1.3 million) / 114,709 [653] - The Peanuts Movie (Fox) ¥153.1 million ($1.5 million) / 108,907 [549] - X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) ¥150.6 million ($1.4 million) / 128,730 [327] - Terra Formars (Warner Bros.) ¥145.4 million ($1.2 million) / 118,453 [329] - Persona Non Grata (Toho) ¥144.1 million ($1.3 million) / 107,058 [538] - Point Break (Warner Bros.) ¥141.9 million ($1.2 million) / 112,937 [348] - Bridge of Spies (Fox) ¥133.5 million ($1.2 million) / 116,015 [213] - Precure All Stars: Sung by Everyone♪ Miracle Magic! (Toei) ¥133.0 million ($1.2 million) / 92,396 [137] - Yu-Gi-Oh! The Dark Side of Dimenstions (Toei) ¥131.0 million ($1.3 million) / 96,000 [304] - Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) ¥129.4 million ($1.1 million) / 99,913 [315] - Paddington (Kino Films) ¥127.2 million ($1.2 million) / 96,394 [256] - Creepy (Shochiku) ¥123.2 million ($1.2 million) / 92,757 [141] - Road to High & Low (Shochiku) ¥115.8 million ($1.0 million) / 84,008 [214] - The Big Short (Toho-Towa) ¥115.6 million ($1.0 million) / 87,958 [587] - The Huntsman: Winter's War (Toho-Towa) ¥113.5 million ($1.0 million) / 86,195 [265] - Black Mass (Warner Bros.) ¥110.6 million ($0.9 million) / 82,182 [221] - The Inerasable (Shochiku) ¥108.8 million ($1.0 million) / 89,510 [244] - After the Storm (Gaga) ¥106.5 million ($0.9 million) / 105,911 [317] - Shuriken Ninninger vs. Ressha ToQger: Ninja in Wonderland (Toei) ¥105.3 million ($0.9 million) / 88,295 [309] - Kainan 1890 (Toei) ¥103.7 million ($0.9 million) / 83,695 [316] - Les Saisons (Gaga) ¥102.1 million ($0.9 million) / 77,769 [96] - Pink and Gray (Asmik Ace) ¥101.1 million ($0.9 million) / 76,114 [150] - Born in the EXILE (Toho Video Division) ¥100.5 million ($0.9 million) / 81,868 [291] - Life's Promise (Toho) ¥100.2 million ($0.9 million) / 75,976 [308] - The Kodai Family (Toho) ¥100 million ↑ Legend: ¥1 billion+ (Exemplary) / ¥500 million+ (Great) / ¥300 million+ (Good) / ¥200 million+ (Acceptable) / ¥100 million+ (Mediocre)

You're right; 7.61. I don't know why I've been saying 7.8 billion.

(C)2016 TOHO CO.,LTD. Weekend Actuals (08/20-21) 01 (02) ¥380,414,500 ($3.8 million), -11%, ¥4,506,634,200 ($44.0 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK4 02 (01) ¥363,299,700 ($3.6 million), -23%, ¥2,312,620,700 ($22.9 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK2 03 (---) ¥237,127,000 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥421,240,300 ($4.2 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) NEW 04 (03) ¥204,622,300 ($2.0 million), -32%, ¥1,375,043,900 ($13.6 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK2 05 (---) ¥196,565,600 ($1.9 million), 0, ¥196,565,600 ($1.9 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) NEW 06 (04) ¥187,974,800 ($1.8 million), -34%, ¥6,044,052,900 ($58.6 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK6 07 (05) ¥156,062,400 ($1.5 million), -43%, ¥4,469,472,300 ($43.1 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK5 08 (---) ¥98,971,000 ($989,000), 0, ¥172,150,000 ($1.7 million), Kizumonogatari Part 2: Passionate Blood (Toho Video Division) NEW 09 (07) ¥85,999,100 ($859,000), -37%, ¥1,024,514,700 ($10.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK3 10 (06) ¥74,244,000 ($741,000), -52%, ¥635,511,500 ($6.2 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) WK2 >Shin Godzilla reclaims the #1 position atop the box office, its third non-consecutive week on top, and did so by only dropping 11% - an extraordinary hold coming out of the Obon Festival holidays, largely thanks to its incredible WOM thanks to it's strong critical and audience reception. Hideaki Anno's (Evangelion) and Shinji Higuchi's reboot of the iconic franchise has effortlessly exceeded the ¥4 billion milestone (its expected finish upon opening), and is going to cruise past the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone now, too, and is in excellent condition to even reach the ¥6 billion ($60 million) mark. And if it does exceed ¥6 billion, it'll very likely becoming the most-attended Godzilla film in 50 years. >The Secret Life of Pets slips to second place, but is continuing to perform very well with a great second weekend hold. It's not going to quite match the success that was Minions, but it's on course for a total likely over the ¥4 billion ($40 million) milestone - making it the highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film in the market behind its studio predecessor. >Ghostbusters debut in Japan, coming in third place selling 160,260 admissions over the weekend frame across 701 screens. And since opening on Friday, and after including last week's previews, its running total has reached 289,511 admissions. The debut is a bit underwhelming, though it's quite strong for an imported comedy featuring a female cast. The film is expected to finish around the ¥1.5 billion ($15 million) mark. >Yell for the Blue Sky, directed by popular shojo manga director Takahiro Miki, is off to a respectable start, selling 163,736 admissions on 281 screens over the weekend. Legs for live-action shojo adaptations are generally strong, so this opening is more than enough to yield a total over ¥1 billion ($10 million), and gives it a slight chance at ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), as well. >Finding Dory holds on better post the Obon holidays than estimates suggested, though it's still down more than it wants to be at this stage. It's fallen further behind Monsters University, trailing it by 11% now, and with Summer Vacation coming to an end in two weeks, it's losing any chance it may have had to make up ground. I'm actually not confident that it'll reach ¥8 billion ($75 million) after this weekend, and it could find itself finishing below Zootopia (¥7.8 billion) as well. Japan will end up being its best international market, but it's finishing below expectations here for sure, which is worrying for a Pixar, which has begun to struggle a bit in the market, if the sequel to their most-successful film is under-performing.

Godzilla is #1 in gross; Pets is #1 in admissions. Often times, Variety and other sources report #1 films in Japan wrong, so be wary. Godzilla has also grossed more than the $42.5 million estimate, and much more than $38 million that Variety says. I'll post weekend actuals soon.

Godzilla Box-Office History Admissions: 12.55 million - Godzilla vs. King Kong (1962) #12 All-Time 9.60 million - Godzilla (1954) #18 All-Time 8.34 million - Godzilla Raids Again (1955) #25 All-Time 7.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1964) #39 All-Time 5.41 million - Ghidorah, the Three-Headed Monster (1964) #83 All-Time 5.13 million - Invasion of Astro-Monster (1965) #89 All-Time 4.21 million - Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster (1966) 4.20 million - Godzilla vs. Mothra (1992) 4.00 million - Godzilla vs. Destoroyah (1995) 3.90 million - Godzilla (1998) *Hollywood* 3.80 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla II (1993) 3.40 million - Godzilla vs. Space Godzilla (1994) 3.20 million - The Return of Godzilla (1984) 2.70 million - Godzilla vs. King Ghidorah (1991) 2.50 million - Destroy All Monsters (1968) 2.48 million - Son of Godzilla (1967) 2.40 million - Godzilla, Mothra and King Ghidorah: Giant Monsters All-Out Attack (2001) 2.23 million - Godzilla (2014) *Hollywood* 2.00 million - Godzlla vs. Biollante (1989) 2.00 million - Godzilla 2000 (1999) 1.78 million - Godzilla vs Gigan (1972) 1.74 million - Godzilla vs. Hedorah (1971) 1.70 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla III (2002) 1.48 million - All Monsters Attack (1969) 1.35 million - Godzilla vs Megaguirus (2000) 1.33 million - Godzilla vs. Mechagodzilla (1974) 1.20 million - Godzilla: Tokyo S.O.S (2003) 1.00 million - Godzilla: Final Wars (2004) 0.98 million - Godzilla vs Megalon (1973) 0.97 million - Terror of Mechagodzilla (1975) Shin Godzilla should be just over the 3 million admissions mark after four weeks, and will be aiming to beat Godzilla vs. The Sea Monster's 4.21 million admissions to become the most-attended Godzilla film in 50 years.

(C)2016 TOHO CO.,LTD. Weekend Estimates (08/20-21) 01 (02) ¥349,000,000 ($3.5 million), -18%, ¥4,350,000,000 ($42.5 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK4 02 (01) ¥331,000,000 ($3.3 million), -29%, ¥2,215,000,000 ($22.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) WK2 03 (---) ¥225,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($4.0 million), Ghostbusters (Sony) NEW 04 (03) ¥199,000,000 ($2.0 million), -34%, ¥1,360,000,000 ($13.4 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) WK2 05 (---) ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million), 0, ¥185,000,000 ($1.8 million), Yell for the Blue Sky (Toho) NEW 06 (04) ¥171,000,000 ($1.7 million), -40%, ¥5,975,000,000 ($58.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK6 07 (05) ¥146,000,000 ($1.4 million), -47%, ¥4,425,000,000 ($42.7 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK5 08 (---) ¥100,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), Kizumonogatari Part 2: Passionate Blood (Toho Video Division) NEW 09 (07) ¥80,000,000 ($800,000), -38%, ¥980,000,000 ($9.7 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK3 10 (06) ¥67,000,000 ($670,000), -56%, ¥600,000,000 ($5.9 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) WK2 >Shin Godzilla appears to have reclaimed its throne atop the box office, and if the estimated sub-20% drop is accurate, it's an exceptional result coming out of the Obon Festival holidays. It's effortlessly exceeded the ¥4 billion milestone (its expected finish upon opening), and is going to cruise past the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone now, too. Hideaki Anno (Evangelion) and Shinji Higuchi reboot has enjoyed incredible WOM thanks to its strong critic and audience reception (some are calling it a masterpiece), so I wouldn't rule out a total over ¥6 billion ($60 million) yet either. And, if it does exceed ¥6 billion, its admissions could be high enough to make it the most-attended Godzilla film since 1966 - some 50 years ago! >The Secret Life of Pets, appears, to have dropped to second place, but is continuing to perform very, very well. It's not going to quite match the success that was Minions, but it's on course for a total around the ¥4 billion ($40 million) milestone - making it the highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film in the market behind its studio predecessor. >Ghostbusters debut in Japan, but after following an impressive marketing campaign, comes in a rather distant third place. The original was a massive success in Japan, the 5th highest-grossing film of all-time at the time of release, and inspired much material in the market, but this reboot was unable to capitalize on the franchise's success. If it weren't for expectations, a debut over ¥200 million would be considered very strong for an imported comedy with a female cast (most imported comedies fail to make the Top 10), and while it's still decent enough... it's also a bit disappointing. I figure once its previews are taken into account, it'll be aiming for a total of ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), or slightly higher. >Yell for the Blue Sky, directed by popular shojo manga director Takahiro Miki, is off to a respectable start. Legs for live-action shojo adaptations are generally strong, so this opening is more than enough to yield a total over ¥1 billion ($10 million), and gives it a slight chance at ¥1.5 billion ($15 million), as well. >Finding Dory is unable to hold strong post the Obon Festival holidays, and falls further behind Monsters University. Summer Vacation will be coming to an end in two weeks, so it's losing any chance it may have had to make up ground. I'm actually not confident that it'll reach ¥8 billion ($75 million) after this weekend, and it could find itself finishing below Zootopia (¥7.8 billion) as well. Japan will end up being its best international market, but it's finishing below expectations here for sure, which is worrying for a struggling Pixar Studios in the market if the sequel to their most-successful film is under-performing. >One Piece Film Gold experiences a sizable drop post the holidays, but given it enjoyed an increase last weekend, a big drop this week was to be expected. It's edging closer to the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone, and should finish slightly above that mark with ¥5.1/5.2 billion ($51/52 million).

The last HP film to earn over 10 billion was Goblet of Fire, so I'd say it's nigh impossible for Fantastic Beasts to exceed the mark and then surpass Star Wars Episode VII. Not to undermine how successful the Harry Potter franchise was in Japan, but the film series saw gradual declines of 15-20% with each film, until Deathly Hallows Part 2 ("just" the 5th biggest in the series) was released. So there's clear evidence that Harry Potter's popularity, at least in cinema form, declined as the years went on. I'm, honestly, not confident in Fantastic Beasts box office prospects. It isn't Harry Potter. It may be set in the same universe, sure, and may perhaps end up having a familiar face or two, but that certainly doesn't mean fans of the Harry Potter franchise will show up for it (just look at how The Hobbit series compared to The Lord of the Rings in Japan...). It's also only been 5 years since the last Harry Potter film, and to me, that isn't much time to build anticipation/nostalgia. I'd be very surprised if Fantastic Beasts is able to gross as much as the lowest-grossing Harry Potter film, Deathly Hallows Part 1 with 6.86 billion.

The average multiplier in the market is 6/7, so $15 million should be the floor if it opens to $2.5 million (not accounting for what it earned prior to this weekend). But, there's still some of summer remaining, so the multiplier should end up slightly above average, which would make $20 million doable. I'll have estimates posted early tomorrow morning @Cookson. Shin-Godzilla is indeed looking very strong once again, and I think it may edge out the weekend victory.

Ghostbusters is doing okay. It's going to debut in third place behind Pets and Godzilla (which are in a very tight race for #1), but beating either of them over the weekend was going to be a little difficult anyway. I'm thinking it'll come in closer to $2.5 million over the weekend, but if it has a strong Sunday, then $3 million is also possible as @Olive predicted. It'll probably get to around $20 million with a debut of this level. I was expecting a total closer to $30 million, but considering its performance elsewhere, I suppose ~$20 million would be good enough. And remember this tomorrow morning: Ghostbusters had four days worth of previews last week, and opened on Friday this weekend. Only Saturday and Sunday count as the weekend in Japan, so those five extra days won't be included in its opening weekend. However, Sony will likely report its opening weekend as including all five extra days, which will probably be enough to claim the #1 spot over the weekend - so don't be fooled if/when they report something like $5 million tomorrow.

And that concludes Obon Festival 2016!

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-17th) Thursday Estimates (08/11) ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), +89%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($26.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 14 ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +57%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($46.7 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 27 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +86%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($32.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 20 ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW ¥75,000,000 ($735,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.6 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 6 ¥65,000,000 ($635,000), 0, ¥355,000,000 ($3.5 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 6 ¥45,000,000 ($440,000), +56%, ¥1,460,000,000 ($13.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 27 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥255,000,000 ($2.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 6 Friday Estimates (08/12) ¥220,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥525,000,000 ($5.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 2 ¥170,000,000 ($1.7 million), +38%, ¥2,870,000,000 ($27.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 15 ¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), +33%, ¥4,960,000,000 ($48.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 28 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 2 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +73%, ¥3,545,000,000 ($33.9 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 21 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 2 ¥60,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($5.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 7 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +44%, ¥1,500,000,000 ($14.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 28 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥390,000,000 ($3.8 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 7 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.8 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 7 Weekend Actuals (08/13-14) 01 (---) ¥467,460,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥982,820,000 ($9.7 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW 02 (01) ¥425,949,600 ($4.2 million), -21%, ¥3,382,975,500 ($32.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK3 03 (---) ¥302,140,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥608,180,000 ($6.0 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW 04 (02) ¥285,472,900 ($2.8 million), -13%, ¥5,289,243,900 ($51.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK5 05 (03) ¥275,617,300 ($2.7 million), +01%, ¥3,845,573,700 ($36.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK4 06 (---) ¥153,153,600 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥324,441,400 ($3.2 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW 07 (05) ¥128,877,700 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥671,537,200 ($6.5 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK2 08 (04) ¥93,680,000 ($924,000), -56%, ¥507,108,300 ($5.0 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) WK2 09 (07) ¥81,331,300 ($802,000), -03%, ¥1,607,155,800 ($15.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK4 10 (06) ¥69,490,100 ($686,000), -46%, ¥388,233,800 ($3.7 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) WK2 Monday Estimates (08/15) ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥1,250,000,000 ($12.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 5 ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million), +95%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($34.7 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 18 ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +46%, ¥5,450,000,000 ($52.8 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 31 ¥160,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥780,000,000 ($7.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 5 ¥150,000,000 ($1.5 million), +125%, ¥4,000,000,000 ($38.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 24 ¥75,000,000 ($740,000), 0, ¥400,000,000 ($3.9 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 5 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), +13%, ¥740,000,000 ($7.2 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 10 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +45%, ¥1,645,000,000 ($15.6 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 31 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +36%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 10 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), +14%, ¥420,000,000 ($4.0 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 10 Tuesday Estimates (08/16) ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥1,455,000,000 ($14.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 6 ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), +59%, ¥3,705,000,000 ($36.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 19 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥905,000,000 ($8.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 6 ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million), +28%, ¥5,570,000,000 ($54.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 32 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +101%, ¥4,115,000,000 ($39.4 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 25 ¥50,000,000 ($490,000), 0, ¥450,000,000 ($4.4 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 6 ¥50,000,000 ($490,000), -03%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.7 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 11 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), +29%, ¥1,675,000,000 ($15.9 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 32 ¥30,000,000 ($395,000), +30%, ¥555,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 11 ¥25,000,000 ($245,000), +06%, ¥435,000,000 ($4.3 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 11 Wednesday Estimates (08/17) ¥200,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥1,655,000,000 ($14.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 7 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), -19%, ¥3,820,000,000 ($37.2 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 20 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), 0, ¥1,020,000,000 ($10.0 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 7 ¥110,000,000 ($1.1 million), -25%, ¥5,680,000,000 ($55.1 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 33 ¥75,000,000 ($750,000), -04%, ¥4,190,000,000 ($40.1 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 26 ¥50,000,000 ($500,000), -33%, ¥840,000,000 ($8.2 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 12 ¥40,000,000 ($400,000), 0, ¥490,000,000 ($4.8 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 7 ¥25,000,000 ($250,000), -24%, ¥1,700,000,000 ($16.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 33 ¥20,000,000 ($200,000), -27%, ¥575,000,000 ($5.6 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 12 ¥20,000,000 ($200,000), -39%, ¥455,000,000 ($4.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 12

I'll look it up. I thought it was already playing in IMAX... I'll post Wednesday's estimates soon; the last day that'll see a noticeable boost from Obon Festival.