Corpse

Weekend Actuals, excluding X-Men still, have been released and updated in the ongoing Obon Festival update (above). Everything came in noticeably lower than estimates over the weekend frame (running totals were accurate though), but the holiday business is being spread out more over the weekdays this year it seems so no worries there. Wednesday is also looking pretty strong, stronger than usual, so the Obon holiday period still seems to be boosting the box office, too, so I'll post Wednesday estimates as well tomorrow.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-17th) Thursday Estimates (08/11) ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), +89%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($26.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 14 ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +57%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($46.7 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 27 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +86%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($32.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 20 ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW ¥75,000,000 ($735,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.6 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 6 ¥65,000,000 ($635,000), 0, ¥355,000,000 ($3.5 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 6 ¥45,000,000 ($440,000), +56%, ¥1,460,000,000 ($13.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 27 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥255,000,000 ($2.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 6 Friday Estimates (08/12) ¥220,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥525,000,000 ($5.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 2 ¥170,000,000 ($1.7 million), +38%, ¥2,870,000,000 ($27.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 15 ¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), +33%, ¥4,960,000,000 ($48.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 28 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 2 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +73%, ¥3,545,000,000 ($33.9 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 21 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 2 ¥60,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($5.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 7 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +44%, ¥1,500,000,000 ($14.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 28 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥390,000,000 ($3.8 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 7 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.8 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 7 Weekend Actuals (08/13-14) 01 (---) ¥467,460,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥982,820,000 ($9.7 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW 02 (01) ¥425,949,600 ($4.2 million), -21%, ¥3,382,975,500 ($32.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK3 03 (---) ¥302,140,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥608,180,000 ($6.0 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW 04 (02) ¥285,472,900 ($2.8 million), -13%, ¥5,289,243,900 ($51.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK5 05 (03) ¥275,617,300 ($2.7 million), +01%, ¥3,845,573,700 ($36.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK4 06 (---) ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW 07 (05) ¥128,877,700 ($1.2 million), -31%, ¥671,537,200 ($6.5 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK2 08 (04) ¥93,680,000 ($924,000), -56%, ¥507,108,300 ($5.0 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) WK2 09 (07) ¥81,331,300 ($802,000), -03%, ¥1,607,155,800 ($15.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK4 10 (06) ¥69,490,100 ($686,000), -46%, ¥388,233,800 ($3.7 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) WK2 Monday Estimates (08/15) ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥1,250,000,000 ($12.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 5 ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million), +95%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($34.7 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 18 ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +46%, ¥5,450,000,000 ($52.8 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 31 ¥160,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥780,000,000 ($7.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 5 ¥150,000,000 ($1.5 million), +125%, ¥4,000,000,000 ($38.3 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 24 ¥75,000,000 ($740,000), 0, ¥410,000,000 ($4.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 5 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), +13%, ¥740,000,000 ($7.2 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 10 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +45%, ¥1,645,000,000 ($15.6 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 31 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +36%, ¥550,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 10 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), +14%, ¥420,000,000 ($4.0 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 10 Tuesday Estimates (08/16) ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), 0, ¥1,455,000,000 ($14.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 6 ¥145,000,000 ($1.4 million), +59%, ¥3,705,000,000 ($36.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 19 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥905,000,000 ($8.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 6 ¥120,000,000 ($1.2 million), +28%, ¥5,570,000,000 ($54.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 32 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +101%, ¥4,115,000,000 ($39.4 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 25 ¥50,000,000 ($490,000), 0, ¥460,000,000 ($4.5 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 6 ¥50,000,000 ($490,000), -03%, ¥790,000,000 ($7.7 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 11 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), +29%, ¥1,675,000,000 ($15.9 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 32 ¥30,000,000 ($395,000), +30%, ¥555,000,000 ($5.4 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 11 ¥25,000,000 ($245,000), +06%, ¥435,000,000 ($4.3 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 11

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Thursday Estimates (08/11) ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), +89%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($26.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 14 ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +57%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($46.7 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 27 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +86%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($32.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 20 ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW ¥75,000,000 ($735,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.6 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 6 ¥65,000,000 ($635,000), 0, ¥355,000,000 ($3.5 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 6 ¥45,000,000 ($440,000), +56%, ¥1,460,000,000 ($13.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 27 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥255,000,000 ($2.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 6 Friday Estimates (08/12) ¥220,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥525,000,000 ($5.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 2 ¥170,000,000 ($1.7 million), +38%, ¥2,870,000,000 ($27.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 15 ¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), +33%, ¥4,960,000,000 ($48.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 28 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 2 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +73%, ¥3,545,000,000 ($33.9 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 21 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 2 ¥60,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($5.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 7 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +44%, ¥1,500,000,000 ($14.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 28 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥390,000,000 ($3.8 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 7 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.8 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 7 Weekend Estimates (08/13-14) 01 (---) ¥467,460,000 ($4.6 million), 0, ¥982,820,000 ($9.7 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW* 02 (01) ¥465,000,000 ($4.6 million), -14%, ¥3,382,975,500 ($32.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK3* 03 (---) ¥302,140,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥608,180,000 ($6.0 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW* 04 (02) ¥300,000,000 ($3.0 million), -09%, ¥5,289,243,900 ($51.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK5* 05 (03) ¥300,000,000 ($3.0 million), +09%, ¥3,865,000,000 ($37.0 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK4 06 (---) ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW 07 (05) ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million), -27%, ¥665,000,000 ($6.4 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK2 08 (04) ¥95,000,000 ($935,000), -55%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.7 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) WK2 09 (07) ¥85,000,000 ($840,000), -03%, ¥1,585,000,000 ($15.0 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK4 10 (06) ¥75,000,000 ($740,000), -43%, ¥360,000,000 ($3.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) WK2 "*" - Weekend Actual, gross and/or total reported. Monday Estimates (08/15) ¥270,000,000 ($2.6 million), 0, ¥1,250,000,000 ($12.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 5 ¥195,000,000 ($1.9 million), +95%, ¥3,560,000,000 ($34.7 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 18 ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +46%, ¥5,450,000,000 ($52.8 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 31 ¥160,000,000 ($1.6 million), 0, ¥780,000,000 ($7.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 5 ¥150,000,000 ($1.5 million), +125%, ¥4,015,000,000 ($38.5 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 24 ¥75,000,000 ($740,000), 0, ¥410,000,000 ($4.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 5 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), +13%, ¥735,000,000 ($7.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 10 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +45%, ¥1,625,000,000 ($15.4 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 31 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +36%, ¥525,000,000 ($5.1 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 10 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), +14%, ¥390,000,000 ($3.8 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 10

You know, that's what I thought when I saw Pet's actual (one of the few films with numbers reported so far), but apparently not - sorry. Shin Godzilla is still listed as coming in second place, so its weekend estimate will be lowered below Pet's actual until its actual is reported. I'll have numbers posted soon.

Weekend Actuals are coming in sporadically due to the ongoing Obon Festival holiday period, and I doubt they'll all be available until tomorrow or possibly even Wednesday. So, when I post Monday's estimates shortly, I'll update the Weekend Estimates to include all known weekend grosses/totals, and update earlier estimates. I'll mark films with actuals reported with a '*'. Based on those actuals reported so far, I was quite close in everything's running totals, but I overestimated the weekend grosses a bit. The available weekend admissions were in-line with what I was expecting, so the weekend likely attracted a lot of family business which drove ticket prices down a bit.

Weekend Estimates (08/13-14)/2016年08月13日-2016年08月14日 01 (---) ¥510,000,000 ($5.0 million), 0, ¥1,035,000,000 ($10.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW 02 (01) ¥490,000,000 ($4.8 million), -09%, ¥3,360,000,000 ($32.6 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK3 03 (02) ¥325,000,000 ($3.2 million), -02%, ¥5,285,000,000 ($51.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) WK5 04 (03) ¥320,000,000 ($3.1 million), +16%, ¥3,865,000,000 ($37.0 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK4 05 (---) ¥315,000,000 ($3.1 million), 0, ¥615,000,000 ($6.0 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW 06 (---) ¥160,000,000 ($1.5 million), 0, ¥335,000,000 ($3.3 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW 07 (05) ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million), -27%, ¥665,000,000 ($6.4 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK2 08 (04) ¥95,000,000 ($935,000), -55%, ¥485,000,000 ($4.7 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) WK2 09 (07) ¥85,000,000 ($840,000), -03%, ¥1,585,000,000 ($15.0 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK4 10 (06) ¥75,000,000 ($740,000), -43%, ¥360,000,000 ($3.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) WK2 >The Secret Life of Pets is off to a very strong start, and appears to have dethroned Godzilla from atop the box office throne over the weekend. Illumination has made a name for themselves thanks to the success of Despicable Me, but mostly those minions, and it clearly proves true with this debut. If the estimates is accurate, it'll have only came in 7% lower than Minions from last year, achieving the second biggest opening weekend for a non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film in the market. Minions opened a week earlier in the summer, so I don't expect Pets' legs to match those, but there is still plenty of summer vacation to go, so I expect a total north of ¥4 billion ($40 million+); that'd easily be enough to claim the title of second highest-grossing non-Disney/Pixar imported animated film in the market, after Minions. >Shin Godzilla holds strong in its third weekend and delivers yet another incredible weekend. There is a scenario in which it could still claim a third-consecutive week atop the box office (if Pets skewed really young, driving its avg. ticket price down), but if not, a third weekend of this level is very good. After three weeks, it's already outgross Hollywood's 2014 film, and continues along a reasonable path to exceed the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone. >Finding Dory also experiences a strong hold, in its fifth weekend, and has exceeded the ¥5 billion blockbuster milestone. It does, however, continue to trail Monsters University, now back by about 9% based on estimates after five weeks. Its projected finish remains unchanged as a result, so expect Dory to finish just above the ¥8 billion ($75 million) milestone. >One Piece Film Gold enjoys a healthy weekend increase in its fourth week, and likely secured it a total above the ¥5 billion ($50 million) blockbuster milestone in the process. >The Jungle Book experienced a pretty slow start, but I don't believe the property had a lot of potential in the market itself (to warrant blockbuster predictions). The debut is decent, but I doubt it'll be enough to push the film above the $1 billion worldwide milestone, as a total around ¥3 billion ($30 million) is likely its limit here. >X-Men: Apocalypse disappoints, as expected, and misses the Top 5 in its debut weekend. Based on estimates, it'll come in nearly 30% below Days of Futures Past, however, it may have opened slightly higher than First Class which opened to ¥158 million in 2011. The new films are only earning ~60% of the original trilogy, but at least they're remaining somewhat consistent. Apocalypse is likely to miss the ¥1 billion milestone, though, and should finish around ¥800 million ($7/8 million). >And finally, just outside the Top 10, Ghostbusters finishes its previews week with around ¥100 million ($1 million) in advance of its wide opening next weekend. It's very, very rare for a film to receive previews in Japan anymore, so it's difficult to say how successful the previews were. However, given the selected theaters only had it scheduled for one or two showings a day, the figure seems decent/good enough to me. I don't think it'll breakout next weekend, but it's unlikely to disappoint either.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Sunday) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Weekend Admissions (08/13-14) 239,031 (------), [235/2,773], The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW 187,499 (-09%), [232/2,693], Shin Godzilla (Toho) WK3 141,258 (-02%), [235/2,192], Finding Dory (Disney) WK5 139,855 (------), [239/2,882], The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW 134,071 (+17%), [230/2,227], One Piece Film Gold (Toei) WK4 x70,973 (------), [230/2,040], X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW x62,350 (-28%), [230/2,359], Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) WK2 x45,657 (-55%), [214/1,338], Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) WK2 x38,691 (-03%), [231/1,315], Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) WK5 x31,167 (-44%), [222/1458], Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) WK2 Weekend Estimates will be posted soon.

Yep. I usually include a line on where I believe a film is likely to finish in my weekend estimates/actuals analysis posts.

It'll be very difficult. It's aiming for $30-35 million, I'd say, based on its performance so far.

Here's a more detailed response: Premium Format (3D, IMAX, etc.): ¥1,800-2,200 General Admission: ¥1,400-1,800 Couples (Parent/Child, Husband/Wife, etc.): ¥2,200 (or 1,100 each) Children/Teens (Elementary/High School Students): ¥1,000-1,100 Seniors (Over 60): ¥1,000-1,100 Disabled: ¥1,000-1,100 Young Children (Under 4): ¥800-900 These are the typical ticket prices, though it varies slightly by cinema chain and region.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Sunday) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL 13,862 > 30,420 > 40,690 > 61,406 > 73,827 > 94,033 > 114,144 > 125,546 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) 10,809 > 22,012 > 29,291 > 38,779 > 51,448 > 60,459 > x75,511 > x89,504 - Shin Godzilla (WK3) x9,511 > 20,172 > 28,054 > 37,418 > 52,229 > 60,280 > x73,571 > x78,140 - Finding Dory (WK5) x8,079 > 15,493 > 21,869 > 31,747 > 41,602 > 49,962 > x62,098 > x70,331 - The Jungle Book (NEW) x8,078 > 15,353 > 22,161 > 30,590 > 39,880 > 47,771 > x58,909 > x67,162 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) x4,311 > x9,446 > 13,229 > 18,865 > 22,873 > 28,509 > x33,004 > x34,984 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2) x3,917 > x5,940 > 11,323 > 14,310 > 16,895 > 24,216 > x27,477 > x33,004 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) x4,635 > x9,486 > 11,992 > 16,492 > 18,951 > 21,830 > x23,475 > x23,856 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2) x3,721 > x7,423 > 10,208 > 13,744 > 15,859 > 19,051 > x20,905 > x21,151 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5) xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > xx,xxx > 10,367 > x12,568 > x14,927 - Himitsu: The Top Secret (WK2) Just awaiting the final update, and then I'll post Sunday estimates, followed by weekend estimates.

Yeah, children tickets are cheaper, and there are various discounts for parents with children. Instead of paying for individual ticket prices, a parent can pay for a combo ticket at a discount price. Pokemon's a good example to use here. It skews so young, that it has an avg. ticket price around 1,050 yen each year, which is ~20% lower than the national average. Something happened with my last post, so give me a minute to repost it.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday)

Yeah, Pets has the weekend advantage. It doesn't have many 3D showings, and it probably skewed young, so I wouldn't call it debuting at #1 with absolute certainly yet as I expect its avg. ticket price to come in low.. It'll come out on top in terms of admissions, of course.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Sunday) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL 13,862 > 30,420 > 40,690 > 61,406 > 73,827 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) x9,511 > 20,172 > 28,054 > 37,418 > 52,229 - Finding Dory (WK5) 10,809 > 22,012 > 29,291 > 38,779 > 51,448 - Shin Godzilla (WK3) x8,079 > 15,493 > 21,869 > 31,747 > 41,602 - The Jungle Book (NEW) x8,078 > 15,353 > 22,161 > 30,590 > 39,880 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) x4,311 > x9,446 > 13,229 > 18,865 > 22,873 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2) x4,635 > x9,486 > 11,992 > 16,492 > 18,951 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2) x3,917 > x5,940 > 11,323 > 14,310 > 16,895 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) x3,721 > x7,423 > 10,208 > 13,744 > 15,859 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5) x1,894 > x3,673 > x4,773 > x6,448 > x7,174 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW)

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Sunday) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL 13,862 > 30,420 > 40,690 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) 10,809 > 22,012 > 29,291 - Shin Godzilla (WK3) x9,511 > 20,172 > 28,054 - Finding Dory (WK5) x8,078 > 15,353 > 22,161 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) x8,079 > 15,493 > 21,869 - The Jungle Book (NEW) x4,311 > x9,446 > 13,229 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2) x4,635 > x9,486 > 11,992 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2) x3,917 > x5,940 > 11,323 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) x3,721 > x7,423 > 10,208 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5) x1,894 > x3,673 > x4,773 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW)

Leaked films don't have their box office affected in the Japanese market. There are strict piracy laws in Japan with harsh punishments (we're talking yearly sentences), and it's monitored very heavily. And the country itself is one that piracy doesn't really exists in either, whether it's music, movies, or any other form of entertainment.

It'll be close, but it'll either just about match First Class's opening, or come in just slightly higher (probably no higher than 5%). This is in local currency (yen), of course; it'll come in much lower in USD due to the exchange rate.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Sunday) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL 13,862 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) 10,809 - Shin Godzilla (WK3) x9,511 - Finding Dory (WK5) x8,079 - The Jungle Book (NEW) x8,078 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) x4,635 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2) x4,311 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2) x3,917 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) x3,721 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5) x1,894 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW)

Yeah, it's a little outside of the Top 10 this weekend.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Thursday Estimates (08/11) ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), 0, ¥305,000,000 ($3.0 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) NEW ¥205,000,000 ($2.0 million), +89%, ¥2,700,000,000 ($26.1 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 14 ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) NEW ¥165,000,000 ($1.6 million), +57%, ¥4,830,000,000 ($46.7 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 27 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +86%, ¥3,430,000,000 ($32.8 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 21 ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), 0, ¥105,000,000 ($1.0 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) NEW ¥75,000,000 ($735,000), 0, ¥470,000,000 ($4.6 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 6 ¥65,000,000 ($635,000), 0, ¥355,000,000 ($3.5 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 6 ¥45,000,000 ($440,000), +56%, ¥1,460,000,000 ($13.8 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 27 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥255,000,000 ($2.5 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 6 Friday Estimates (08/12) ¥220,000,000 ($2.2 million), 0, ¥525,000,000 ($5.2 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 2 ¥170,000,000 ($1.7 million), +38%, ¥2,870,000,000 ($27.8 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 15 ¥130,000,000 ($1.3 million), +33%, ¥4,960,000,000 ($48.0 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 28 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), 0, ¥300,000,000 ($2.9 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 2 ¥115,000,000 ($1.1 million), +73%, ¥3,545,000,000 ($33.9 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 22 ¥70,000,000 ($690,000), 0, ¥175,000,000 ($1.7 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 2 ¥60,000,000 ($590,000), 0, ¥530,000,000 ($5.1 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 7 ¥40,000,000 ($395,000), +44%, ¥1,500,000,000 ($14.2 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 28 ¥35,000,000 ($345,000), 0, ¥390,000,000 ($3.8 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 7 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), 0, ¥285,000,000 ($2.8 million), Himitsu: The Top Secret (Shochiku) Day 7 Saturday Estimates (08/13) ¥215,000,000 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥740,000,000 ($7.3 million), The Secret Life of Pets (Toho-Towa) Day 3 ¥200,000,000 ($1.9 million), -18%, ¥3,070,000,000 ($29.7 million), Shin Godzilla (Toho) Day 16 ¥135,000,000 ($1.3 million), 0, ¥435,000,000 ($4.2 million), The Jungle Book (Disney) Day 3 ¥130,000,000 ($1.2 million), +31%, ¥3,675,000,000 ($35.1 million), One Piece Film Gold (Toei) Day 23 ¥125,000,000 ($1.2 million), +04%, ¥5,085,000,000 ($49.2 million), Finding Dory (Disney) Day 29 ¥75,000,000 ($740,000), 0, ¥250,000,000 ($2.4 million), X-Men: Apocalypse (Fox) Day 3 ¥55,000,000 ($540,000), -31%, ¥585,000,000 ($5.7 million), Rudolph to Ippaiattena (Toho) Day 8 ¥45,000,000 ($445,000), -56%, ¥435,000,000 ($4.2 million), Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (Toei) Day 8 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), +08%, ¥1,530,000,000 ($14.5 million), Pokemon XY&Z: Volcanion and the Mechanical Magearna (Toho) Day 29 ¥30,000,000 ($295,000), 0, ¥30,000,000 ($295,000 ), Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (Toei) NEW *Percentage (%) changes compared to same day last week.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL 9,143 > 21,147 > 29,143 > 44,339 > 55,161 > 70,102 > 85,105 > 93,635 > 103,777 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) 6,445 > 14,247 > 19,566 > 25,599 > 38,117 > 43,813 > 57,188 > 68,126 > x85,540 - Shin Godzilla (WK3) 5,451 > 11,019 > 16,313 > 23,499 > 30,986 > 37,694 > 46,918 > 53,952 > x62,219 - The Jungle Book (NEW) 5,937 > 12,504 > 20,353 > 26,440 > 38,881 > 45,055 > 54,773 > 58,235 > x60,586 - Finding Dory (WK5) 5,201 > 11,069 > 17,168 > 23,248 > 32,417 > 37,209 > 47,490 > 53,536 > x60,437 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) 2,766 > x4,166 > x8,044 > 10,597 > 12,657 > 18,016 > 20,818 > 25,347 > x32,246 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) 2,592 > x6,246 > x9,079 > 13,041 > 16,495 > 21,128 > 24,076 > 25,622 > x26,495 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2) 4,224 > x8,152 > 10,861 > 14,518 > 16,821 > 19,651 > 20,913 > 21,664 > x21,727 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2) 2,953 > x6,101 > x8,607 > 11,472 > 13,152 > 15,703 > 17,224 > 17,515 > x17,526 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5) 3,312 > x5,893 > x7,815 > 10,243 > 11,299 > 12,667 > 13,713 > 14,213 > x14,401 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW) The Secret Life of Pets comes out on top in admissions for the day, but if it skews too young, then the battle for first place in terms of gross will be very tight since Shin Godzilla (down just 18% compared to last Saturday) should have a significant ticket price advantage. I'd give Pets the advantage for the weekend crown since family/kids films perform well on Sundays, but it's not a lock to dethrone Godzilla just yet. Close race between The Jungle Book, Finding Dory (up 4% compared to last Sat.), and One Piece Film Gold (up 31% compared to last Sat.) for third place today. It could really have gone to any of the three for the day, but I'd give Dory the edge for the weekend since it should experience the best Sunday of the three. X-Men: Apocalypse recovered a bit once the evening/night showings began, but it's still going to miss the Top 5 by a wide margin. I'll post Saturday's Estimates shortly.

Some theaters have showings until midnight, or even later, but for the most part, ticket sales come to a major slow down after 10PM. Shin-Godzilla is performing wonderfully, @Cookson It dropped just 14% in its second weekend, and may drop less than that in its third weekend to claim a third-consecutive weekend atop the box office (depending on what happens on Sunday). It can't be doing much better than it already is. I'll have the hourly sales updated soon, followed by Saturday's estimates.

Obon Festival 2016 (August 11th-16th) Usual Locations [Two-Thirds of Market] - Hourly Admissions (Saturday) 10AM > 11AM > 12PM > 1PM > 2PM > 3PM > 5PM > 7PM > FINAL 9,143 > 21,147 > 29,143 > 44,339 > 55,161 - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) 5,937 > 12,504 > 20,353 > 26,440 > 38,881 - Finding Dory (WK5) 6,445 > 14,247 > 19,566 > 25,599 > 38,117 - Shin Godzilla (WK3) 5,201 > 11,069 > 17,168 > 23,248 > 32,417 - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) 5,451 > 11,019 > 16,313 > 23,499 > 30,986 - The Jungle Book (NEW) 4,224 > x8,152 > 10,861 > 14,518 > 16,821 - Kamen Rider Ghost (WK2) 2,592 > x6,246 > x9,079 > 13,041 > 16,495 - Rudolph to Ippaiattena (WK2) 2,953 > x6,101 > x8,607 > 11,472 > 13,152 - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5) 2,766 > x4,166 > x8,044 > 10,597 > 12,657 - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) 3,312 > x5,893 > x7,815 > 10,243 > 11,299 - Aikatsu Stars! The Movie (NEW) At the mid-day point, here's how everything is performing: >The Secret Life of Pets is on its way to winning the day and assuming it achieves the typical Sunday increase that family/kids films receive, then it's likely to win the weekend, at least in terms of admissions; if it skews too young, causing its avg. ticket price to come in low, then Godzilla could still prevent it from debuting at #1. >Shin Godzilla is nearly on par with last Saturday (-03%), and is in perfect shape to deliver yet another incredible weekend hold or potential third weekend increase. I don't think it's going to claim a third-consecutive weekend atop the box office in terms of admissions, but it just might finish close enough to Pets' admissions to outgross it thanks to its high ticket prices. Both Pets and Godzilla are targeting weekends around ¥500 million based on their ticket sales at this stage. >The Jungle Book is doing... alright, but it's certainly not performing up to its potential. It does appear to be appealing more towards adults, so I expect business to pick up as the day progress. Where it stands now, I expect it to come in around ¥350 million over the weekend. >These films are up over last Saturday: One Piece (+46%!); Finding Dory (+13%); Pokemon (+08%). These were the most likely films to enjoy weekend increases and so far, so good. >X-Men: Apocalypse... well, it's a big disappointment. The original X-Men trilogy was somewhat successful, but the new films have suffered a significant decline. Early Weekend Projections: ¥475-525 million ($4.7-5.2 million) - The Secret Life of Pets (NEW) ¥475-525 million ($4.7-5.2 million) - Shin Godzilla (WK3) ¥350-400 million ($3.5-4.0 million) - Finding Dory (WK5) ¥325-375 million ($3.2-3.6 million) - The Jungle Book (NEW) ¥300-350 million ($3.0-3.4 million) - One Piece Film Gold (WK4) ¥150-175 million ($1.5-1.7 million) - Rudolph to Ippaitenna (WK2) ¥125-150 million ($1.2-1.5 million) - X-Men: Apocalypse (NEW) ¥100-125 million ($1.0-1.2 million) - Kamen Rider Ghost the Movie (WK2) ¥90-95 million ($900,000-950,000) - Pokemon XY&Z (WK5)

They're actually quite strong. Wait until the next update, very soon, and you'll see.