narniadis
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Posts posted by narniadis
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30 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
I think it gets to at least $15m today, but it's really early.
So you mean 14? 😂 jk, thanks for giving us hope
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7 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:
I had expected it to behave more like Tron which was like +70 for the Saturday, but 50% keeps expectations in check 😂 or not. 30m should be the goal regardless, more is great.
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Huh.... my overly optimistic 150% might actually be closer than anything else the last couple of days had discussed 😂 I would have been thrilled with 8m but 9m is bonkers and it should again hit close to or damn well over 30m.
9+13.5 (+50%)+8.1 (-40%) =30.6m
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15 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
$4.6m or so
Right inline with 2011/2016(ish) should be another drop tomorrow or at best a flatish hold.
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31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
Most of XMAS release dropped 65-67% in 4th FRI from Dec 29-30. FRI jump has been all over the place from 50-90%.
Your worst examples going back to 2016 are notoriously skewed films like TLJ and ROS though? Or in the case of Aquaman, way too close to the holiday proper to be a good fit. The week has played out already quite similar to 2011 and the next best calendar match is 2016 and in both cases the best matches (Tron Legacy and SW7) are in the 70-80% range and most other films are over 100%. As much as I play the down card, I'm surprised that I feel like I'm pushing for better behavior than one of the BOGods.
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22 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:
I am thinking 27-28 weekend.
627.4
4.4
4.2
7.25
12.25
8Why under 100% on Friday? That would be way out of keeping with normal behavior for the time of year? Let alone the fact that nothing of significance is opening? I was rash earlier with my 150% ideal but past time frame gives a wide 100-170% range.
While I don't see more than 31-32 at best, under 30m would be a tad out of keeping, even with a 4.2m Thursday.
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1 hour ago, Product Driven Legion said:
Hmm, yeah, looking at Nov 2010 tues bumps they’re actually quite close to 2021. Seems I was misremembering the phase in timing there. Not so bad then though I would still like Sony to find a couple hundred k behind the sofa 😛
Yeah, if I remember right it was either late 2009 or summer of 2010 that AMC at large finally got on board with the trend and it changed the landscape. There was a time when it was a minor drop on both Tuesday and Wednesday usually followed by a small increase or flat on Thursday. Cheap Tuesdays changed that which made some of the patterns a decade ago harder to outright compare.
Course I also remember when family films could pull 280-300% Fridays in the school year and that doesn't usually happen anymore either.
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@Product Driven Legion just remember that the Tuesday increase debate has been going on since the BOM days. It was definitely in place by 2010/11. We used to have arguments about it back then as well.
Was fun when I could get discounts at my Cinemark in 2009 but not at the AMC 🤣
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28 minutes ago, Product Driven Legion said:
2011 Tuesdays and 2022 Tuesday aren't even in the same galaxy, cmon.
I've been speaking for a week about the 2011 pattern.... there is a reason it exists. The holiday was extended by 1 day for many with Today being the first school day back. Add to that, the weak ass Tuesdays in general since COVID and its right in line with where it should be. Will be down another 20-25% tomorrow I imagine before leveling off on Thursday - only due to lack of openers and previews.
Friday should be around the 150% mark to make up for the difference.
Should still be aiming for 30m+ 4th weekend.
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9 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:
Are these big drops? I don't know. Licorice Pizza going to 222k after 396k Sunday and WSS hitting like 300k after 550k feels steep. Or expected as its Monday after New Years?
They are great holds. Next Monday it will be 65%+ and 80% for the family films.
Today and Tomorrow will drop more as the return to school and work continues across the country.
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Great hold, right in the middle of the 50-60% arena. Film should drop every day this week based off past matching patterns or close to it. Thursday may increase since there isnt a major film opening (Sorry 355 lol), but steady on minor drops should lead into a very solid Friday/Saturday.
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6 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:
700 is still on the table?
Yup, the question is still how close to Avatar.
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44 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:
Thinking maybe $17m for today.
Amazing 🤩 fantastic for anything under 30% should drop between 55-60% on Monday as well.
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20 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:
22.5 would be quite a good bump tbh. I wonder if the Sunday will drop in the late 30 percent like TFA.
It should, 30% would be overly solid and shouldnt be an expectation. 35-40% should be the expectation.
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Just now, RiddlerXXR said:
Does it though? Why pull it from markets with no restrictions when you're less than a week from release?
It would appear they want it to release "worldwide" at the same time? Not sure otherwise, but its not the first date change for the film (from my limited reading.)
Sucks since it was one of the small bright spots on the January calendar here in the US.
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8 minutes ago, Eric Smith said:
There a reason why?
Omicron within India I would imagine, especially this close to release. Makes sense if it's pulled OS to not release it here as well.
Article I just read said its the 2nd film there to be pulled with one named Jersey pulled from its date of yesterday.
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1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:
LOL at this "Encanto isn't bringing aditional people to D+ so they're Dumb" argument.
Streaming platforms is not only about getting new subscribers, is also about keeping the people who are subscribed already, and make them happy.
D+ are even losing people in some countries because of lack of content. Now they have a movie that wasn't that big on theaters but is becoming massive on streaming, this helps them to keep the platform relevant and to keep the customers happy about getting content. And for a movie like Encanto, being so big on streaming helps them to sell the soundtrack and merchandising.
This is way more valuable than losing 10M on box office.
Yup, its the business side that while I disagree, I can also totally understand the why. And frankly, it also shows that Disney didn't expect the film to be as "big" as it had been.
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20 minutes ago, Borobudur said:
Sing 2 is constantly doing slightly more than half of Sing1, how long is its theater exclusive run? I remember even F9 got only 35 days only.
If it plays out like the Summer films did (Quiet Place / F9) that ended up on the PVOD or Paramount+ it will be fine-ish. That was right around the 45 day mark for QP2 and even F9 didn't lose much in a noticeable way.
Biggest issue $ wise will be if Universal dumps it for free on Peacock.
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When it comes to the Disney subs, the thing to watch will be what they choose to push and promote next fall. Many forget that they had a massive push for a 3 year membership that was gangbusters pricewise (my family did that). They will want to keep the "non-paying" subs next fall and things like Encanto are ways they will do it.
While we saw it in theaters the week before Christmas, my kids have watched it another half-dozen times or so in the last week. There is definitely an audience for such that isn't going to reflect well in general within the movie-nerd continuum.
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26 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:
stronger weekdays balance out the bad weekends, so it turns out normal, not much different from normal weekdays and normal weekends. That's what I mean.
How can you know the 3rd weekend has sub 40% drop? what if it will have more than 50% drop?
The bad weekend this time is only due to where Christmas Eve fell (and for Spidey, compounded by the huge previews that couldn't be balanced out.) There is a reason that the studios pack this 2-2.5 week period with films each year. The best configuration of the Calendar is Christmas on Wednesday or Friday, the Worst is when Christmas eve falls on Friday and Saturday (so next year will also be rough.) However, the one day of bad influence is far far outweighed by the overall increase in weekday capacity which is NOT available at any other point on the calendar. Simple mathematics, more people are off work and available during the last 2 weeks of December than at any other point in the year.
Trust us old guard who have watched the ebb and flow for many years (if not decades for some of us.) There is reason for the studio and scheduling madness.
And if Spidey falls more than 50% its a collapse from here on out and would be a shock. It should be somewhere in the 35-40% range based on past behavior and the covid factor.
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7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:
Who knows? Maybe the difference between actuals and Sony's estimate might end up as the difference between NWH and Avatar. That'll be newsworthy.
Sure, but only for us math nerds a month or two from now
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Sony does tend to under estimate, but who knows lol. Maybe they want the positive play of an increase, although theres nothing news headline worthy for it.
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2 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:
I feel the Monday drop will make up for it then.
Yes, we should "maybe" see drops in the 50-60% range instead of the 75% area. Then again, its hard to know for sure in the covid world.
Like Tomorrow should in theory be down about 25% from today (so somewhere over 16m prob) and then Saturday up 50-60% before dropping around 40 on Sunday. Makes for weird dynamics in the covid world and the higher dollar amounts that Spidey is pulling.
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7 minutes ago, Tokugennumataka said:
31 - 14M
1 Jan - 19M
2 - 15M
3 - 6M
4 - 6.5M
5 - 4.9M
6 - 4.4M
7 - 8.4M
8 - 13.5M
9 - 8.6M
30.5M (-37%). 656M by Sunday. Titanic to sink on the following Tuesday.
Tuesday the 4th will drop from the 3rd, as the rest of schools make it back in. Usually its the 2nd week before (precovid) the Tuesday increases were normal again.
And obviously 2010/11 is too far back to be a complete follow but it gives a good picture of how this coming week should behave in theory, particularly the daily drops most of the week and rare increases.
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Weekend Thread (1/7-9) | The 355 - 350K Previews (5K short!)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Not for about another 3-4 hours. Usually by about noon CST they start coming in, but usually not full until mid afternoon.