narniadis
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Posts posted by narniadis
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$142,839,140
Little bit more than New Moon when it exploded off of Twilights opening.... not any other magical logic in place.
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45 minutes ago, Porthos said:
I'm going to break away from consensus and say "we don't know".
If Chadwick had still been alive, the tenor of the film and the themes of it would have probably been much different. Maybe something that wasn't quite as heavy in subject matter could have propelled it. The marketing of the film would have been 100% different, that's for sure. Even if it was always gonna be a more downbeat film (middle chapter syndrome), it wouldn't have had the cloud over it or the restrained marketing.
I do agree it would have been difficult. But... I dunno. Think people are being a bit too certain here. Maybe put it at around a 10 to 15 percent chance.
Problem is, without knowing what type of film they were gonna make, and how that would have been connected to other projects, it's almost an impossible question to answer.
Statistics and records are made to be broken, just feel that after 20 years of tracking this stuff the likelihood of BP2 increasing in that capacity would literally have been lightning in a bottle 2.0. It MAY have been more akin to Jumanji 2 and 3 in that the drop was about 10% or so, but even then thats again an outlier.
Definitely a case of the "never to be known" as you point out.
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1 hour ago, XXR 4 Modsident said:
@M37 Looks like you're no longer the most pessimistic about A2
Im in the same group, mainly because I am stubborn. Dont think I had posted an actual number though, still sticking to 550-600m.
That said, I look forward to A2 potentially only being the 2nd (unless I've forgotten one) 400m+ original whose sequel surpasses the first. Frozen 2 being the other one.
Statistically sequels to the 400m+ crowd (let alone 600m+) havent increased from part 1 to part 2.
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I'm just saying, the deep lack of families overall is a permanent stunt on the box office. Even for poorly received films like Strange World, the jump should have been better but when a significant % of your demographic is missing, and or just not involved (females) it hurts. When you have to consider the cost of movie tickets versus the box of eggs or gallon of milk (let alone the rest of expenses) its a given what loses out first.
Regarding BP, I personally still think it legs out over 450m due to nothing other than Puss and Avatar as big draws. But presales aside, its beyond time the Avatar expectations be a bit more in check... cause again, the Family demographic will not be feeding it as deeply as the past.
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Congrats to you both. As always my thanks to the Mod Team, its a thankless job but we are grateful for it.
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BPWF is headed for about 2.5x from an inflated holiday opening weekend. I fail to understand the continued sadness... unrealistic expectations don't make it a failure, particularly when its behaving normally week over week right now?
But then again, BOT wouldn't be BOT if reality instead of hopes and dashed dreams actually reigned.
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Having seen Glass Onion on Friday, I am glad. We watched Disenchanted with the kids last night, and the difference between experience wise can't be understated. But I will always champion the theater experience over strictly home viewing.
Mind you, I couldn't have afforded to take the whole family to a decent showing of Disenchanted since 6 tickets, plus the time and food adds up way too quick right now with the local cheap times retired for the season apparently.
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Hoping for AntMan3 to get over 300m was already a lofty goal, and that was before 2022s decreasing amounts for the MCU. 250m should be a solid goal already and then we can talk of it hitting good attendance versus AM1 and AM2.
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Rango, a fantastic film that truly wasnt an animated kids flick ❤❤ still one of my favorites and haven't shown it to my kids yet.
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12 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
So anyone know whats the deal with strang world's verified score?
had never seen such type of audience scores for a fresh movie meant for the general audience
Its the combination of being a poorly made movie and legit bigotry from surprised targeted audience. The last 3 pages have debated the whys quite a bit and its definitely part bias and apparently a lot of poor filmmaking. Target demographic here with my 4 kids in the right age who love scifi and nobody here wanted to see it 🤷♂️
**edit
It cannot be all bigotry. The B cinemascore points to a wider issue and even IF we try ti weigh the bigotry at best you move the score up one point to a B+, which is again horrendous for an animated film.
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Ouch that B is as bad as Marvel's B ultimately. Considering that family audiences are usually easier to please and a B+ would have already been concerning, a B speaks to it not sitting well with more than just the bigoted side. Hmmm.... totally not what I expected.
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Disenchanted not going to theaters is a massive miss.
And yall.... its deadline, chill on the freakout.
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Not sure what happened 🤷♂️
Solid, if unremarkable weekend overall. Its nice that when compared with 2019 its just barely down, even with the lack of product and no big film opening in the Pre-Thanksgiving weekend.
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Much better and more in line with expectations for the Menu. WF doing normal.
Addendum to the conversation about ticket prices. One thing to remember, there is a reason that the National average has to be used. For every major city theater getting closer to and or over the $20 mark you have plenty of smaller non city sites that are cheap. $5.75 yesterday for the wife and I to purchase tickets. Next weekend in Dallas seeing Knives Out, the tickets are still under $10 for a Friday matinee. So yes, while ticket prices have gone up, not in all places to the extremes that get floated around here.
Its also another interesting tidbit into how much the NYC and LA markets inflate things on a national scene.
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Seems on point, especially if it can come in on the upper 18-19m range. Mid upper 60s (as well as 70m) should still be the goal if Saturday is appropriately big.
Saw it today and its good, if a tad overlong. WOM in my rural area continues to be in line with the A.
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Decent, if unremarkable Thursday for BP2. Looking forward to seeing it today. 70m is possible, but if I was betting I'd go with 66-68m now.
As for the retread of the MCU, the poster assumes I haven't seen it all 😂. I have watched everything MCU has put out to date. There is just too much now and so there isnt a priority, which eventually causes other problems. Its not a hard thing to understand and the historical nature of these cycles speaks to the problem and how it always ends up in a bust before having to sit for awhile. Supers will end up like Westerns and Musicals eventually, although maybe not on the "cheap" scale.
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2 minutes ago, Reed121 said:
Veterans Day was on Saturday
But it was "observed" on the Friday. Made for a weird dichotomy in the box office. Not as good as it legitimately being on Friday, but schools and federal offices / banks were still closed.
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25 minutes ago, GOGODanca said:
Yup.... wife and I just finished Ms Marvel last week and only cause we had run out of other things we had been watching. There is just too much and none of it, especially this year, has been "great."
We are making a point to go on a date night tomorrow and see BP but we haven't seen one in theaters since Shang-Chi 🤷♂️ and I don't really care.
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1 hour ago, Verrows said:
I get that. I guess I just took it to literally and thought we would see an EXTRA strong weekend to balance out the softer weekdays.
Still getting the hang of this all.
Its all good. The weekends ARE stronger when comparing % of gross versus the weekdays versus the Summer. But the film, as large as it is, has an incredible weight on its back with just the preview gross. Even taking that away and you still have the holiday on Friday to content with week over week (all films will). Saturday across the board will appear stronger this weekend since their isnt an inflated Friday.
Extra strong is all in the eye of the beholder as well. A good way to look at it is to exclude the previews since there is no Thursday gross included now. Without them, a 50% drop gets you down to 76m already. A fairly decent -55% then gets you to 69m. Decent word of mouth, lack of true fresh competition, etc. Is why I am aiming for 70m. Which is strong and suggests then that the legs will at least be solid for the current market.
CBMs with rare exception (BP1 being a prime candidate) struggle to do less than -55% including previews and that gets harder the larger the number - even before we take into account other factors.
Enjoy learning this stuff and have fun with it. I would love a fantastic surprise ala BP1, but just never expect it.
Us old timers also can be jaded due to how long we've followed things.
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1 hour ago, Legion By Night said:
BOP range is pretty wisely chosen imo
Yup, the 75+ crowd is setting up for disappointment. Nothing new in that regard of course. As noted above I am hoping for 70m but BOPs range is quite solid.
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1 minute ago, Eastwood47 said:
Box Office Pro already predicting a 65% drop for WF this coming weekend. That seems a bit... early.
Its Wednesday, so their initial weekend projection comes out. -65% is a solid mark to put out now without seeing the Wednesday/Thursday numbers.
A tad high imo, but its definitely within normal range coming off an inflated holiday weekend and previews. 70m is my goal / hope personally but as long as it doesnt get near the 70% mark it is fine.
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The old guy watching all the younger followers panicking.... you will learn in time, just relax. BP is doing fine for the time of year. Nothing out of the ordinary so far, and certainly not bad.
Also, for the one asking about Deadlines number being real or fake, its not an either or. Charlie noted earlier that Comscore apparently had an issue with their data which skewed the overnight. Charlie's was correct for the data given, Deadlines was correct for the data correctly given. Deadline doesnt make up numbers in the morning of. Early Thursday and Friday stuff, sure to a point.
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12 minutes ago, Cruel Summer said:
whats with Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile's legs???
No family films in wide play other than it. By default its a main family option if the kids are too small for the Supers. I took mine last month since it was the only option for a Birthday movie outing 🤷♂️ not my choice but its all we had lol.
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Interestingly enough, after throwing out Ghost Protocol (it was a limited imax only opening that weekend), based on sheer size, Rogue One is still probably closer to a reality than the -30ish average of the others. This set up is an interesting one, especially since most schools wont be out yet until probably mid-week. So Sunday gets the benefit of colleges out, but not quite the same benefits as the 26th and 2nd with 100% out.