[Weekend Prediction thread 7/4-7/7 Independence Day weekend Play the Derby]

6/24-6/26

1. Finding Dory: $80.5 million ($291 million)
2. Independence Day - Resurgence: $39 million
3. Central Intelligence: $21 million ($75 million)
4. The Shallows: $16 million
5. Free State of Jones: $13 million 
6. The Conjuring 2: $7.5 million ($87 million)
7. Now You See Me 2: $5.5 million ($52 million)
8. Me Before You: $3 million ($52 million)
9. Warcraft: $2.5 million ($43 million)
10. The Neon Demon: $2.5 million 

7/1-7/4

1. Finding Dory: $45 million/$57.5 million ($393 million) 
2. The BFG: $31 million/$38 million 
3. Independence Day - Resurgence: $23 million/$31 million ($93 million)
4. The Purge - Election Year: $16 million/$19.5 million 
5. The Legend of Tarzan: $15 million/$18 million 
6. Central Intelligence: $13 million/$15.5 million ($103 million)
7. Free State of Jones: $7.5 million/$9 million ($37 million) 
8. The Shallows: $6 million/$7 million ($28 million) 
9. Now You See Me 2: $3 million/$3.5 million ($58 million) 
10. The Conjuring 2: $2.5 million/$3 million ($92 million) 

7/8-7/10

1. The Secret Lives of Pets: $84.5 million 
2. Finding Dory: $20.5 million ($421 million) 
3. The BFG: $15 million ($60 million) 
4. Independence Day - Resurgence: $11 million ($110 million) 
5. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $9 million 
6. The Purge - Election Year: $7 million ($31 million) 
7. Central Intelligence: $6.5 million ($113 million) 
8. The Legend of Tarzan: $6 million ($27 million) 
9. Free State of Jones: $4.5 million ($44 million) 
10. The Shallows: $3 million ($32 million) 

7/15-7/17

1. Ghostbusters: $67 million 
2. The Secret Lives of Pets: $53 million ($191 million)
3. Finding Dory: $12.5 million ($446 million)
4. The BFG: $10 million ($79 million) 
5. Independence Day - Resurgence: $5.5 million ($121 million) 
6. The Infiltrator: $5 million 
7. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $4 million ($17 million) 
8. The Purge - Election Year: $3.5 million ($38 million)
9. Central Intelligence: $3 million ($119 million)
10. Free State of Jones: $2.5 million ($49 million) 

7/22-7/24

1. Star Trek Beyond: $58 million 
2. Ghostbusters: $34 million ($136 million) 
3. Ice Age - Collision Course: $31 million 
4. The Secret Lives of Pets: $27 million ($244 million) 
5. Lights Out: $7 million 
6. The BFG: $5.5 million ($90 million) 
7. Finding Dory: $5.5 million ($456 million) 
8. The Infiltrator: $2.5 million ($10 million) 
9. Mike and Dave Need Wedding Dates: $2 million ($21 million) 
10. The Purge - Election Year: $1.5 million ($41 million) 

7/29-7/31

1. Jason Bourne: $78 million 
2. Star Trek Beyond: $27 million ($114 million) 
3. Bad Moms: $24 million 
4. Ice Age - Collision Course: $17.5 million ($66 million) 
5. Ghostbusters: $16 million ($167 million) 
6. The Secret Lives of Pets: $14 million ($271 million) 
7. Nerve: $4 million 
8. The BFG: $4 million ($98 million) 
9. Finding Dory: $3.5 million ($463 million) 
10. Lights Out: $3 million ($13 million)

8/5-8/7

1. Suicide Squad: $107 million 
2. Jason Bourne: $35 million ($148 million)
3. Bad Moms: $16.5 million ($57 million) 
4. The Founder: $14 million 
5. Star Trek Beyond: $12.5 million ($139 million)
6. Ice Age - Collision Course: $10 million ($84 million) 
7. The Secret Lives of Pets: $9 million ($287 million) 
8. Ghostbusters: $8 million ($182 million) 
9. Nine Lives: $6 million 
10. The BFG: $3 million ($103 million) 

8/12-8/14

1. Suicide Squad: $48 million ($193 million) 
2. Pete's Dragon: $34 million 
3. Sausage Party: $26 million 
4. Jason Bourne: $18.5 million ($179 million) 
5. Bad Moms: $11 million ($75 million) 
6. Florence Foster Jenkins: $10 million 
7. The Founder: $8 million ($27 million) 
8. Star Trek Beyond: $6.5 million ($150 million) 
9. Ghostbusters: $5 million ($190 million) 
10. Ice Age - Collision Course: $4.5 million ($91 million) 

8/19-8/21

1. Suicide Squad: $27 million ($235 million) 
2. Ben-Hur: $23 million 
3. Pete's Dragon: $20 million ($61 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $16.5 million 
5. Sausage Party: $10.5 million ($43 million) 
6. Jason Bourne: $9.5 million ($194 million) 
7. War Dogs: $8 million 
8. Bad Moms: $7 million ($86 million) 
9. Florence Foster Jenkins: $6.5 million ($20 million) 
10. The Founder: $5 million ($35 million) 

8/26-8/28

1. Don't Breathe: $23 million 
2. Suicide Squad: $17 million ($260 million) 
3. Pete's Dragon: $15 million ($81 million) 
4. Kubo and the Two Strings: $11.5 million ($32 million) 
5. Ben-Hur: $10 million ($38 million) 
6. Jason Bourne: $6.5 million ($204 million) 
7. Sausage Party: $6 million ($52 million)
8. Bad Moms: $5 million ($93 million) 
9. War Dogs: $4.5 million ($15 million) 
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $4 million ($26 million) 

9/2-9/5

1. The Light Between Oceans: $24 million/$32 million 
2. Pete's Dragon: $15.5 million/$22 million ($107 million) 
3. Suicide Squad: $14 million/$18 million ($285 million) 
4. Don't Breathe: $11 million/$13.5 million ($42 million)
5. Kubo and the Two Strings: $10 million/$13.5 million ($49 million)
6. Ben-Hur: $7.5 million/$9.5 mlilion ($51 million)
7. Morgan: $6 million/$7 million 
8. Jason Bourne: $5 million/$6 million ($213 million) 
9. Bad Moms: $4 million/$5 million ($100 million) 
10. Florence Foster Jenkins: $3.5 million/$4.5 million ($32 million) 

 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

2 hours ago, Baumer said:

Adults coming all over an animated film sounds really creepy. Like animation is supposed to be for kids. They're not good movies....they're just there.

Grave of the Fireflies

Watership Down 

Akira

Princess Mononoke 

The Wind Rises

Persepolis

The Triplets of Bellevue 

Paprika

Ghost in the Shell

Anomalisa 

Heavy Metal

A Scanner Darkly

 

All far more mature and sophisticated than the vast majority of live-action films - Hollywood or foreign. 

 

And I didn't even list the countless mature, philosophical anime TV shows that are far more complex than the typical crime procedural. 

 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

What are you expecting this weekend's day by day breakdown to be? Deadline has it doing low-30's

Even in the low 30s, I would expect it to be leggy enough for $100 million DOM.

 

$1.8 million

$11.2 million

$12.5 million

$11 million 

 

$36.5 million. Father's Day should give it a nice Sunday hold

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

21 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Central Intelligence is going to need a 3x to hit 100M, I don't see that happening. It'll end up in the Top 15 though.

Why wouldn't it get a 3x with zero action comedy competition until Ghostbusters?

 

$36 million

$20.5 million ($75 million)

$11.5 million/$14 million ($102 million)

$6 million ($112 million)

$2.5 million ($117 million)

$124 million DOM

 

That's a pretty harsh predict, too, since I don't see it having 45-55% drops for its entire run. It should hold decently for July 4th and arguably next weekend if ID42 really has a sub-$40 million OW. 

 

 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

 

5 hours ago, nilephelan said:

 

Did I miss something or will the 3 that are already there and 8 or so more that will get there as well not count?

No there'll be more:

 

Conjuring 2

Dory

ID42 (should be able to inch across with a low 40s OW)

Central Intelligence 

Pets

Ghostbusters

Star Trek 3

Ice Age 5

Bourne 5

Bad Moms

Suicide Squad

Sausage Patty 

 

 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

I think you meant only two or three will pass "200m" this summer.

Don't you mean four or five? 

 

Pets, SS and Bourne 5 all have a good chance to do so. Even Ghostbusters could if WOM ends up being decent. 

6 hours ago, Belakor said:

What a depressive summer. Only two or three movies are going to pass the 100m mark.

There'll be 6 past this mark by July 4th 

 

And another 6-8 by Labor Day. 

 

Do you mean OW? 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

16 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I honestly don't see you disliking it, it's not really going for anything all that high concept or thought provoking that you seem to think is pretentious from them. It's just a sweet movie. 

But neither were Cars 1/2, Brave, Monsters U or A Bug's Life. And I'm pretty sure he disliked all of those, too. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

9 minutes ago, Baumer said:

Pets will pass Dory. The brainwashing will wear off by next weekend and Dory Will drop 70%. 

 

I don't get the fascination with Pixar.

70%???? 

 

This isn't Warcraft 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

4 minutes ago, Goffe said:

?

Don't forget Despicable Me! 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

2 hours ago, FilmBuff said:

The dark knight

the avengers

jurassic world 

The force awakens

 

'Those movies didn't have impressive legs, they didn't have a 3.6 multiplier.'

 

RIDICULOUS.

Different type of film. Those are all tentpoles targeting teens/adults with some family crossover.

 

Finding Dory targets families with some teen/adult crossover.

 

They also opened far higher than Finding Dory will. TDK adjusts to around $200 million OW with inflation and 3D added in. A 3.6x after a $200 million+ OW is a ridiculous expectation (yet SW7 did it), whereas a 3.6x from an OW $50-80 million smaller isn't as outlandish.

 

It's by no means a lock (3.2x-3.4x is a realistic range IMO), but Dory has a better shot at a 3.6x than the other three just because of a smaller OW, less frontloading and a demo that doesn't always rush out OW. 

 

 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

2 minutes ago, FilmBuff said:

 

Dude, films opening that large don't usually get a 3 multiplier!! It's rare. Tdk, TFA, TA,JW. Those were freaks of nature.

But animated films tend to be leggier than tentpoles, so a 3x is fairly standard. 

 

TS3 and Shrek 2 managed a 3x, and I expect Dory to do the same. 

 

3.5x is up in the air, but definitely plausible.

 

4x will most likely not happen. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

14 minutes ago, superweirdo87 said:

Does 50-52+ include the 9.2 Thursday in previews?

Yes, but it's so early I really don't think that's the limit. $55 million+ OD is still possible. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I've been seeing Finding Dory/The Secret Life of Pets playing similar to Toy Story 3/Despicable Me this whole time.

 

The comparison is remarkably similar - well-received, well-marketed Pixar sequel and well-marketed, light-hearted Illumination original. Both will be in the top 5 DOM for Summer 2016 IMO. 

 

I think both will finish above their counterparts. Dory at $450-475 million, Pets at $260-320 million. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

11 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Still, we shouldn't underestimate anything with Star Wars in the title.

 

I can see 160 m OW with 3.7 legs which puts Rogue One close to 600 m.

 

Just wait till marketing hits it stride.

 

If the reshoots don't fix the film's issues, I could see $120 million OW, $425 million DOM. Good for top 3 DOM/WW, but not enough for #1 if Dory opens to $135 million+. 

 

Especially since Passengers is gaining buzz and Sing will draw in more families than Alvin 4. Assassin's Creed  will take away screens and showtimes from Rogue One, too, even if it manages to do only $40-50 million DOM. 

 

 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

 

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Yeah, but my point being even a 130m OW off of that previews number makes it WAY more front loaded than Minions. As I said, it would hit 170 off of that preview number if it followed Minions patterns. I have to think theres only like a 1% chance of it missing the animated OW record now.

 

Worst case would be around TS3's OW ($110 million), best case likely $160-165 million. 

 

$130-140 million is the safe projection for now. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Anything under Frozen DOM was an underperformance for Dory? 

Considering Zootopia and Jungle Book both did $325 million+ DOM, it would be disappointing if Dory only did $350-370 million DOM.

 

Still a success, but barely above the original unadjusted would have been close to the lower end of expectations. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Yeah, this year really needs to start balancing itself out more.

July and August should be a little more balanced - two big hits (Pets and SS), a few solid hits (Bourne 5, Star Trek 3, Ghostbusters) and I'd say 5 in the $75-125 million range (Ice Age 5, BFG, Bad Moms, Pete's Dragon, Sausage Party). 

 

 Not to mention Central Intelligence and Conjuring 2 should be mid-level successes, and ID42 should do well OS. 

 

September/October should balance things out a bit since there's no Martian or Gravity  this year.

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

10 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Well recieved Pixar sequels usually get 4x legs.

 

So if Dory hits 125 m OW, then CW's summer crown is in danger.

With $9.2 million in previews, I don't see how it misses $125 million+ considering Minions did $6.2 million in previews and got $115 million OW. 

[Weekend Thread | Weekend Estimates - FD: $136.2M, CI: $34.5M, TC2: $15.56M, NYSM2: $9.65M, Flopcraft: $6.52M]

20 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Sad!

I'd say it is more sad that only 9 films have done $72 million+ DOM by mid-June than 10 Cloverfield Lane leaving the top 10

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

3 hours ago, Arlborn said:

I think Pets or Moana have a better shot. Suicide Squad definitely has a decent chance. Anything over $225 million DOM is a huge win, though

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

23 minutes ago, zackzack said:

 

Dory and Rogue One make it 7. 

 

All it takes is one crowd-pleasing surprise hit to reach the mark. 

[2016 100M Films - 30 down, 6 to go! (Passengers Played The Long Game)]

1 hour ago, A District 3 Engineer said:

Next to hit 100m:

 

-Dory.

-IDR 

-The Conjuring 2...

Central Intelligence??

On 5/24/2016 at 2:26 PM, zackzack said:

2016 is already beating 2015 in terms of $300M grossers.

Five (!!!) are already in the can. Dory & Rogue One will

certainly be and that gives us 7 $300M grossers in a single year

- locked. And if Suicide Squad, Life of Pets & ID4-2 break out,

we'll have 10 in a year 

 

 

Fantastic Beasts and Moana have a better shot at $300 million+ DOM than Independence Day 2. 

 

That said, I do think there'll be 8-10 $300 million+ DOM grossers this year

[Best Original Song 2016]

10 hours ago, Kalo said:

 

Um. do you know how many Disney animations have oscar wins for best song? 10. that's just wins. 

 

Yes, I know. 

 

But the Academy loves recognizing solid live-action musicals, too. La-La Land  also has a much, much, much better chance than Moana at Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay. 

 

If it has 8-10 other nominations besides Original Song, its chances of winning are far more likely than Moana with possibly only Animated Feature as its other nomination. 

 

It'll be a tight race for Best Original Song this year - and Miranda does have the youngest EGOT ever factor going for him, too. 

[Tuesday Number: Conj2:4.81M, NYSM2:3.07M Warcraft:2.33M, TMNT2:2.06M, MBY:1.72M, XMA:1.46M, AB:1.11M......]

2 hours ago, Captain Craig said:

Captain America: Civil War didn't disappoint. It's a $400m+/$1.2B film with a substantial increase over the prior installment. 

And everyone expected $325-350 million DOM until April 2016 

 

$400-415 million DOM is a great finish - it, Angry Birds, Money Monster and Conjuring 2 are all success stories. NYSM2 and X-Men: Apocalypse are disappointing, but both will end up making a slight profit. 

 

Summer 2016 is bad (TMNT 2, Alice 2 and Neighbors 2 shouldn't have opened as low as they did), but there's time for redemption.

 

Every summer of this decade has had a 'down' period (May 14th, 2010-June 10th, 2010, June 2011, May 11th, 2012-June 7th, 2012, July 19th, 2013-August 8th, 2013, July 2014, August 2015).

 

This summer could be following 2010's trajectory - one big hit (CW) and a bunch of underperformers for the first 1.5 months of summer, multiple big hits (Dory, Pets, ID42, Bourne 5, SS) and some mid-level hits (Ghostbusters, Central Intelligence, Conjuring 2, Star Trek 3, Ice Age 5, Bad Moms, Pete's Dragon) the rest of the summer. 

 

The lack of noise at the BO should help Dory and Central Intelligence this weekend and turn things around for Summer 2016. 

[Tuesday Number: Conj2:4.81M, NYSM2:3.07M Warcraft:2.33M, TMNT2:2.06M, MBY:1.72M, XMA:1.46M, AB:1.11M......]

26 minutes ago, The Pandaren said:

Conjuring 2 is doing great, will probably be the only sequel besides Dory to not disappoint this summer.

Jason Bourne should do MI4/MI5 DOM numbers if it's decent.