IndustriousAngel
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Posts posted by IndustriousAngel
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6 hours ago, Flip said:
Is it a 5 day OW in Germany?
no, that's 4-day
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:
title
admisisons
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Disney Channel Mitmachkino
160.383
565
284
160.383
782.571
-
1
2
Eine Million Minuten
115.362
720
160
776.412
7.798.771
-18
4
3
Anyone But You
96.640
591
164
1.313.938
12.810.634
-21
6
4
Le Dernier Jaguar
95.450
691
138
703.243
5.596.728
-35
4
5
Bob Marley - One Love
94.948
568
167
284.614
2.933.491
-23
2
6
Migration
67.871
653
104
2.088.412
18.366.720
-30
10
7
Madame Web
53.713
493
109
199.715
2.063.168
-43
2
8
The Beekeeper
35.391
360
98
730.076
7.551.487
-15
7
9
Poor Things
28.244
235
120
449.862
4.560.605
-16
6
10
Argylle
28.227
387
73
323.410
3.425.866
-40
4
11
Wonka
27.582
391
71
2.502.795
23.128.240
-32
12
12
La Passion de Dodin Bouffant
19.513
187
104
104.638
1.011.728
-20
3
13
Night Swim
19.214
317
61
129.078
1.274.582
-32
3
14
Wish
18.131
373
49
1.968.729
16.627.748
-36
13
15
Spuk unterm Riesenrad
17.218
305
56
27.592
219.518
-
1
16
Anatomie d'une chute
15.736
196
80
417.836
4.282.670
+11
17
17
All of Us Strangers
14.800
88
168
75.708
697.128
-13
3
18
The Holdovers
12.929
189
68
196.590
1.908.594
-18
5
19
Fireman Sam
11.365
486
23
84.517
444.222
-51
3
20
Perfect Days
10.685
172
62
394.027
3.740.057
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10
Bad weekend … at least, there were >20 releases over 10k. Wonka crossed 2,5mil total, Migration 2,0mil - fine! An Eine Million Minuten had a fine hold once more, a medium-sized hit in the making.
In Austria, a much better weekend - thanks mainly to domestic dramedy Andrea lässt sich scheiden; Josef Hader's second directorial work opened on #1 with nearly 37k admissions (incl. previews even a bit over). Also >10k were Le Dernier Jaguar and Anyone But You (which is now at 210k total), and the Disney sing-a-long event sold also better than in Germany. The Beekeeper should reach 150k total - also a nice medium-sized hit.
Next weekend: Dune2 and nothing else I guess. While the first one missed 2mil total back in '21, the movie has been well-received and I'm thinking part 2 can reach well over 3mil total. As to the opening - presales are strong but I don't believe it can reach 1mil (icluding Wed); I'm rooting for a number in the 750k range! Other evening releases will suffer a bit because of screen loss while family movies could hold better. And before Dune2, there's the mid-week Demon Slayer event which might be good for another 200k admissions; theaters are in dire need of visitors!-
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1 hour ago, el sid said:
The final trend from insidekino.de:
#1 Disney Channel Mitmachkino 145k
...
Lisa Frankenstein 12.5k
Maybe the sing-a-long event is the reason for the other family releases' poor performance. And that's much worse than I expected for Lisa Frankenstein. Really a weekend to forget ... at least, Dune2 presales are looking very strong, so hopefully that's the last forgettable weekend for a while!
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Contrary to my expectations, family films are even lower in Saturday estimates ... now there's only Eine Milion Minuten left in the 6-digit-range 🙁
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early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
it will be a poor weekend, only 2 releases in the 6-digit-range and those barely - Eine Million Minuten and Le Dernier Jaguar are head-to-head with about 105k each, Bob Marley should become #3 with 90k
(with weather pretty rainy at least in the south and west, I can see family releases doing a bit better over the WE, no outdoors weather at all)
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2 hours ago, Issac Newton said:
Anyone But You (Austria)
WKend 1 - €270K (€323K incl. Previews)
WKend 2 - €310K / €760K
WKend 3 - €283K / €1.17M
WKend 4 - €220K / €1.50M
WKend 5 - €212K / €1.90M
Holds are great !
yep, as mentioned, it should be at 200k admissions by now, that's excellent and much better than in Germany. 300k seem hard to reach but the way it's holding, it's not impossible!
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Le Dernier Jaguar
146.828
657
223
581.117
4.626.699
+10
3
2
Eine Million Minuten
140.076
705
199
614.445
6.202.839
-7
3
3
Bob Marley - One Love
123.342
497
248
153.206
1.593.280
-
1
4
Anyone But You
122.475
599
204
1.184.413
11.535.770
-5
5
5
Migration
97.330
680
143
2.005.410
17.695.152
+14
9
6
Madame Web
94.462
481
196
127.707
1.333.941
-
1
7
Argylle
46.921
510
92
284.645
3.024.819
-33
3
8
The Beekeeper
41.642
377
110
687.883
7.111.517
-19
6
9
Wonka
40.541
413
98
2.467.421
22.822.717
-4
11
10
Poor Things
33.812
230
147
407.339
4.125.473
-27
5
11
Night Swim
28.354
327
87
104.233
1.019.441
-33
2
12
Wish
28.288
414
68
1.946.417
16.447.832
+6
12
13
La Passion de Dodin Bouffant
24.378
148
165
72.890
702.300
-8
2
14
Fireman Sam
23.042
592
39
71.567
372.897
-48
2
15
All of Us Strangers
17.067
86
198
52.041
480.057
-13
2
16
Lohusa
16.130
74
218
96.191
943.420
-26
4
17
The Holdovers
15.800
163
97
177.685
1.724.114
-34
4
18
Die Chaosschwestern und Pinguin Paul
15.465
415
37
123.744
925.843
-7
4
19
Anatomie d'une chute
14.147
190
74
395.775
4.051.939
-15
16
20
Aquaman 2
13.071
167
78
1.366.804
15.663.585
-29
9
One more ok weekend without big hits … Bob Marley opened higher than expected despite not that many screens and made it to #3 in a close race, Madame Web continues the run of weak Spidey tie-ins but is not an outright flop. Family releases (with the exception of Fireman Sam) had super holds or even increases, Migration has now crossed 2mil total and Wish might get there, too. And Anyone But You has crossed 1mil, not bad. Domestic dramedy Eine Million Minuten continues with another fine hold, WOM seems excellent and 1mil total should be no problem at all with continuing good legs.
In Austria, Anyone But You won the weekend and should cross 200k total before next WE; Migration is on track for close to 300k total; it's so close I'm sure the distributer will give it a final push if it should fail that mark. Madame Web opened higher than in Germany, enough for #2, while Bob Marley came in at #4 with numbers similar to Germany.
Next weekend: Once more, no really big openers; maybe horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein can attract some business (the horror demo is a little neglected atm). And a new domestic children's book adaption, Spuk unterm Riesenrad, enters the family market - I have no idea how popular the book series is, some of these adaptions get to 1mil total with usually leggy runs.
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Saturday update from insidekino.de, as expected, Jaguar is dropping a bit, so with actuals the Top3 should stay the same as last weekend
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early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
#1: Le Dernier Jaguar - 150k (+12% but it went down with actuals last weekend so probably lower)
#2: Eine Million Minuten - 135k (-10%)
#3: Anyone But You - 110k (-15%)
Best opener: Bob Marley - 130k incl. previews; Madame Web is not an instant flop with >110k.
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Eine Million Minuten
150.269
655
229
396.311
4.024.523
-6
2
2
Le Dernier Jaguar
133.345
600
222
351.502
2.840.052
-6
2
3
Anyone But You
128.754
615
209
973.752
9.495.629
-32
4
4
Migration
85.308
702
122
1.862.172
16.553.622
-19
8
5
Argylle
70.223
523
134
206.151
2.215.373
-32
2
6
The Beekeeper
51.114
442
116
632.221
6.542.102
-29
5
7
Poor Things
46.158
239
193
350.588
3.547.819
-28
4
8
Fireman Sam
44.164
620
71
44.164
221.443
-
1
9
Night Swim
42.225
337
125
54.031
511.868
-
1
10
Wonka
42.172
476
89
2.394.869
22.214.843
-24
10
11
Wish
26.762
445
60
1.904.472
16.113.487
-23
11
12
La Passion de Dodin Bouffant
26.613
122
218
32.327
310.460
-
1
13
The Holdovers
24.052
187
129
150.541
1.457.368
-32
3
14
Lohusa
21.677
75
289
72.340
708.397
-6
3
15
Dune
20.097
339
59
1.899.652
19.820.775
-
1
16
All of Us Strangers
19.721
70
282
19.721
185.742
-
1
17
Aquaman 2
18.301
213
86
1.346.014
15.445.067
-37
8
18
Die Chaosschwestern und Pinguin Paul
16.708
528
32
97.164
735.357
-27
3
19
Anatomie d'une chute
16.677
187
89
373.705
3.286.477
-15
15
20
Perfect Days
15.083
183
82
355.551
3.386.292
-26
8
An ok weekend once more; while there's still no blockbuster in sight, at least a lot of releases >15k admissions - a wide selection of attractive releases, good for the industry. The one with the highest PTA was Turkish dramedy Lohusa! #1 went to domestic Eine Million Minuten, also a dramedy - the super hold (as for Le Dernier Jaguar) indicates excellent WOM.
In Austria, once more, a better weekend, with the exception of Eine Million Minuten which only made #5 here. all other releases were as high, most a lot higher than in Germany.
Next week(end): Valentine's Day will boost Anyone But You (at least mid-week), and it will be difficult for any opener to make the Top5. Madame Web doesn't look very attractive (presales very low); the openers with the highest PTA will probably be Bob Marley: One Love and Voyage au pôle sud, both with a lower screen- and show count. No new family releases.
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early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
#1: Le Dernier Jaguar - 165k (+16%, great number if true)
#2: Eine Million Minuten - 150k (-6%)
#3: Anyone But You - 130k (-32%, the first real drop)
With about 25k admissions, the rerelease of Dune stayed behind expectations but it's not that bad a number, there were not that many shows. The Color Purple is barely in the 5-digits range, instant flop.
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As mentioned a few times, Austria's admissions have been crawling away from Germany's for some time now; the last weekend was a prime example. Here's a table comparing the numbers for some actual and some big older releases:
admissions Germany
admissions Austria
title
WE (4day)
total
WE (3day)
total
% total
Everyone But You
190.390
790.514
31.444
114.569
14,4%
Le Dernier Jaguar
142.605
172.967
16.202
18.565
10,7%
Migration
104.877
1.749.349
15.672
231.992
13,2%
The Beekeeper
71.828
566.347
15.330
96.071
17,0%
Poor Things
64.290
277.285
9.588
49.822
18,0%
Wonka
55.272
2.336.575
11.744
318.199
13,6%
Aquaman 2
29.009
1.320.297
8.105
166.887
12,6%
Wish
34.673
1.869.081
?
ca 250.000
13,4%
Barbie
ca. 5.996.000
ca. 800.000
13,3%
Oppenheimer
ca. 4.165.000
ca. 510.000
12,2%
Super Mario Bros.
5.311.966
691.863
13,0%
Elemental
2.069.699
263.660
12,7%
GotG 3
2.002.576
245.299
12,2%
Avatar 2
10.203.912
1.161.090
11,4%
Top Gun 2
3.748.283
602.342
16,1%
No Time To Die
6.024.915
584.864
9,7%
Spider-Man NWH
4.642.898
592.935
12,8%
Minions 2
4.171.424
537.940
12,9%
Germany has 84,6mil inhabitants, Austria 9,1 (10,8% of Germany's). Austria has a bigger share of non-German-speaking inhabitants than Germany; counting only the native speakers, Austria has 10,4% of Germany's - so that's not making that much of a difference.Given the very similar market, you would expect Austria's admissions to be near that number, too - and that has been true for a long time with a bit more in favour for Austria, say, 11-11,5% instead of 10,5%, because Austrians just went to the movies a bit more often. The other difference is that Austria's Opening Weekends tend to be bigger (I guess, because there are more seats/capita, so easier to get good tickets) but legs shorter, so it makes sense to compare totals, not weekends.
But in the after-Covid and during-Ukraine crisis market, that gap has become wider as seen in the right column where I give Austria's admisisons as percent from Germany's total. Of course, for movies still in release, those will still change because the aforementioned better German legs.The one notable exception here is James Bond, No Time To Die actually did better in Germany than in Austria! But for other non-domestic releases, we're now mostly >12%, with family releases seemingly pulling further ahead, around 13%. So, while the Austrian market is facing difficulties, too, it's not as bad as in Germany.
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title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Everyone But You
190.390
595
320
790.514
7.700.295
-15
3
2
Eine Million Minuten
159.185
618
258
184.191
1.895.120
-
1
3
Le Dernier Jaguar
142.605
520
274
172.967
1.404.955
-
1
4
Migration
104.877
712
147
1.749.349
15.641.717
+4
7
5
Argylle
102.767
526
195
110.485
1.205.975
-
1
6
The Beekeeper
71.828
481
149
566.347
5.870.898
-28
4
7
Peppas Kino Party
68.440
237
289
68.440
378.509
-
1
8
Poor Things
64.290
232
277
277.285
2.805.905
-11
3
9
Wonka
55.272
520
106
2.336.575
21.708.327
-23
9
10
The Holdovers
35.259
187
189
112.442
1.075.555
-12
2
11
Wish
34.673
500
69
1.869.081
15.822.033
-22
10
12
Aquaman 2
29.009
277
105
1.320.297
15.171.280
-39
7
13
Lohusa
23.024
63
365
44.348
434.439
+53
2
14
Die Chaosschwestern und Pinguin Paul
22.949
584
39
71.714
549.372
-25
2
15
Mean Girls
22.552
387
58
85.778
791.435
-48
2
16
The Boy and the Heron
22.491
306
74
523.478
5.298.665
-35
4
17
Perfect Days
20.294
206
99
329.872
3.146.813
-10
7
18
Anatomie d'une chute
19.576
188
104
348.376
3.567.305
+12
14
19
Checker Tobi 2
13.620
202
67
1.148.993
8.838.611
+18
18
20
Butterfly Tale
12.912
297
43
13.047
102.918
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Another "ok" weekend for Germany, at least 5 releases >100k. Domestic dramedy Eine Million Minuten opened stronger than I expected, as did Le Dernier Jaguar, but the surprise was kiddie release Peppas Kino Party which had the strongest PTA among family releases - hopefully it will expand next weekend! Argylle stayed behind expectations with a poor PTA. Among holdovers, Everyone But You, The Beekeeper and Migration plus the award contenders continued with nice holds or even increases, while last week's Mean Girls fell from a disappointing OW into the worst drop on the chart …
In Austria, the weekend was much better once more (details later).
Next weekend: The Color Purple (probably not hit material, presales very low) and a ton of new family releases (holidays!), none of them really interesting (the latest Fireman Sam movie might attract some business - the series' admissions have been volatile but a >50k OW seems possible). This week's leaders should stay safely in front.
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early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
#1: Anyone But You - 200k (-11%, fine)
#2/3: Eine Million Minuten / Le dernier Jaguar with about 120k each without previews
#4: Migration - 110k (+9%, nice)
#5: Argylle - 102k
so, 5 movies >100k admissions, not too bad, we've had years with less 6-digit-movies on this weekend. Let's hope the trend continues; sadly, we're still missing anything really blockbustery.
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7 hours ago, Flip said:
if Anyone but You holds steady or increases next weekend 2m admits should be more likely than not
I was thinking the same ... with Valentine's Day on the horizon, and WOM obviously good, we're seeing a medium-sized hit here.
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Germany's Top20 last weekend_
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Anyone But You
224.280
571
393
528.942
5.155.602
+16
2
2
Migration
101.244
710
143
1.627.708
14.649.106
-17
6
3
The Beekeeper
99.824
585
171
472.035
4.918.460
-23
3
4
Poor Things
72.410
187
387
179.546
1.814.073
+1
2
5
Wonka
71.806
657
109
2.266.518
21.095.289
-28
8
6
Aquaman 2
47.511
459
104
1.281.859
14.759.623
-35
6
7
Wish
44.241
604
73
1.828.737
15.491.787
-28
9
8
Mean Girls
43.411
390
111
51.355
480.270
-
1
9
The Holdovers
40.028
176
227
57.944
535.879
-
1
10
The Boy and the Heron
34.804
418
83
488.060
4.950.368
-39
3
11
Die Chaosschwestern und Pinguin Paul
30.672
588
52
42.779
331.983
-
1
-
Le Dernier Jaguar
30.280
437
69
30.280
234.000
-
0
12
Perfect Days
22.511
217
104
297.746
2.851.513
-3
6
-
MET: Carmen (LEO)
18.197
185
98
18.197
551.152
-
0
13
Anatomie d'une chute
17.550
156
113
319.988
3.274.203
+63
13
14
The Hunger Games Prequel
15.563
232
67
1.632.554
18.219.985
-39
11
15
Lohusa
15.026
47
320
15.026
148.766
-
1
16
Girl You Know It's True
14.790
310
48
358.665
3.690.336
-20
6
17
Stella. Ein Leben
13.650
130
105
14.740
145.804
-
1
18
Home Sweet Home
11.510
214
54
18.648
157.243
-
1
19
Checker Tobi 2
11.509
226
51
1.120.578
8.244.627
+61
17
20
Oppenheimer
11.369
230
49
4.156.179
47.235.084
+511
28
A nice weekend (again, under current circumstances …) with a lot of releases >10k admissions and a surprising increase for last week's Anyone But You - good! Award contenders were on the rise, even Oppenheimer is back to 5 digits and Holdovers did ok! Poor Things continues with its excellent PTA, hopefully we'll see a slight increas in screens! Mean Girls was the disappointment among openers.
In Austria, similar numbers (but a bit higher for most everything), plus domestic dramedy Rickerl on #6 with an increase from the OW.
Next weekend: After this week's 30k previews (which were published, rare for Germany), Le Dernier Jaguar will open officially. Other openers: Domestic dramedy Eine Million Minuten, actioner Argylle - and Austrian movie Rickerl finally gets to Germany too after the two ok weekends in its domestic market.
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Final estimates for Germany a bit better for many releases (Beekeeper might hit 6 digits once more) - Anyone But You with a surprising increase, obviously the only real Date Movie atm
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4 hours ago, Flip said:
Mark G at insidekino is predicting 4m admits for Mufasa. It does have the holidays to help it out but given that its a prequel to a movie that did 5.6 admits and the moviegoing climate is signifcantly worse moviegoing climate I don't understand it.
The reasoning might run something like "there HAVE to be some big earners so why not this"
early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany's weekend, no big openers:
#1: Anyone But You - 200k (+4%, nice)
#2: Migration - 100k (-18%)
#3: Beekeeper - 90k (-30%)
despite the good holds, this is obviously another weekend <1mil admissions
Holdovers opening to about 50k, good
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Mean Girls seems floppy, at least at my venue it's selling less tickets today than last week's Poor Things; the strongest opener here is Holdovers (except maybe the kiddie movie Chaosschwestern; always difficult to predict because there are never much presales for those ...)
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Germany's Top18 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Anyone But You
192.573
503
383
232.277
2.263.569
-
1
2
The Beekeeper
128.999
563
229
344.026
3.613.821
-22
2
3
Migration
122.626
692
177
1.510.485
13.676.356
-26
5
4
Wonka
99.475
725
137
2.179.024
20.322.884
-30
7
5
Aquaman 2
73.033
558
131
1.220.764
14.109.236
-33
5
6
Poor Things
72.019
143
504
72.019
734.849
-
1
7
Wish
61.143
623
98
1.776.917
15.072.044
-33
8
8
The Boy and the Heron
57.483
462
124
434.472
4.425.405
-39
2
9
The Hunger Games Prequel
25.686
318
81
1.610.549
17.978.769
-36
10
10
Perfect Days
23.300
217
107
261.425
2.511.486
-36
5
11
Napoleon
19.096
373
51
1.146.565
13.033.533
-43
9
12
Girl You Know It's True
18.433
455
41
335.914
3.460.566
-43
5
13
Priscilla
15.336
194
79
106.753
1.026.298
-44
3
14
Kolpacino 4 4'lük
13.649
61
224
13.649
142.072
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1
15
Saw 10
12.046
257
47
449.833
4.722.965
-36
8
16
Anatomie d'une chute
10.786
170
63
294.893
3.015.985
-38
12
17
The Palace
10.351
214
48
15.436
136.415
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1
18
Next Goal Wins
7.150
334
21
85.303
750.832
-59
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Excellent opening for Anyone But You - should reach 1mil total without any problem. Also excellent OW for Poor Things - a PTA of >500, with often only one or two shows per day on smaller screens, means this was running close to capacity. Among holdovers, The Beekeeper seems to have good WOM, and Migration had the best hold among family releases and flew past 1,5mil total. Overall, a good weekend.
In Austria, once more, numbers were much better - the openers 30% ahead of Germany, and Beekeeper 50% ahead. Plus domestic dramedy Rickerl on #6, so overall much friendler.
Next weekend: A few wide openers will rough up the chart but I see no one dethroning this week's leader. The most potent openers will probably be Die Chaosschwestern und Pinguin Paul (a domestic family release) and Mean Girls. Also opening: The Holdovers (not a BO story), The Marsh King's Daughter, and domestic horror thriller Home Sweet Home.
As an aside: Keep in mind - if I'm calling this a "good" weekend, that's in the context of the German post-Covid market and the general shitty state of the BO at the moment. In pre-Covid-times, this would have been an awful weekend. The top ten last WE add up to about 856k admissions; in 2020 and earlier years, a January weekend was always >1mil, usually >1,2mil for the Top10.
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final estimates have Anyone But You even higher; 215k incl previews - excellent start!
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2 hours ago, LegendaryBen said:
That has to mean a $3M OW for ABY? If so, that's outstanding and I hope I can leg out a final total of $13M+
yep, that's a pretty good opening. there were some "Ladies' Nights" on Wed but despite that it doesn't seem to be frontloaded, so WOM seems at least decent and it might leg it to 1mil admissions (Valentine's Day coming up, should give it a decent mid-run push)
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Sat updated estimates from insidekino.de higher for Anyone and Migration, lower for Wonka and Poor Things - overall still a good weekend.
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early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany:
#1: Anyone But You - 175k (incl. a few previews)
#2: The Beekeper - 120k (-27%, ok hold)
#3: Migration - 115k (-30%)
#4: Wonka - 110k (-23%)
Poor Things trending >80k, that's fine given the low number of theaters - so, both "big" openers successful.
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DUNE II | 395.8M overseas | 660.7M worldwide
in International Box Office
Posted
wow.
just came back - what a movie, what a theatrical experience. After the first one was received favourably and became a mid-sized hit, I see this doing much better - at least doubling the first one's gross. This is epic filmmaking at its finest and really worth a ticket; there are very few home theater systems fit for Dune2