IndustriousAngel
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Posts posted by IndustriousAngel
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Germany's Top16 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
The Beekeeper
165.381
528
313
180.757
1.926.415
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1
2
Migration
165.107
688
240
1.370.525
12.482.991
-46
4
3
Wonka
142.230
757
188
2.060.671
19.239.283
-44
6
4
Aquaman 2
108.588
610
178
1.131.254
13.145.800
-50
4
5
The Boy and the Heron
93.627
440
213
349.550
3.576.136
-33
2
6
Wish
90.867
633
144
1.707.472
14.497.510
-48
7
7
The Hunger Games Prequel
40.193
351
115
1.576.889
17.601.279
-41
9
8
Perfect Days
36.665
192
191
223.935
2.153.489
-22
4
9
Napoleon
33.601
451
75
1.120.114
12.730.723
-41
8
10
Girl You Know It's True
32.406
524
62
309.884
3.194.624
-43
4
11
Priscilla
27.226
186
146
82.240
791.268
-26
2
12
Saw 10
18.434
277
67
436.449
4.579.758
-39
7
13
Next Goal Wins
17.526
330
53
74.741
658.848
-56
2
14
Anatomie d'une chute
17.372
170
102
277.380
2.837.570
+10
11
15
791km
11.248
246
46
148.770
1.406.644
-31
5
16
15 Jahre
10.941
77
142
14.345
125.612
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Ok for a post-holiday weekend and a very close race for #1 which The Beekeeper won by 274 admissions … of course, moneywise, it led by much more. Wonka has crossed 2mil total, Aquaman 2 1mil … not bad numbers for those releases, it's just something blockbustery is missing, as was the case throughout the holidays. The boy and the Heron had an impressive hold compared to other family releases; Next Goal Wins however had the worst drop on the chart and that from an already disappointing OW.
In Austria, similar numbers except for Beekeeper; the actioner opened much better than in Germany, no close race here.
Next weekend: Romcom Anyone But You tries catering to a (lately) neglected market and SciFi drama Poor Things is also targeting an audience currently underserved, so both should find their place - the romcom might even make #1! In Austria, Adrian Goiginger's latest movie Rickerl is opening; his three prior directorial works have made him Austria's most interesting director (imho). His first and third movies each got >100k admissions in Austria, no mean feat for domestic arthouse dramas - Rickerl is his first comedy (or at least dramedy) so I'm hoping for an even better result!
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1 hour ago, el sid said:
Mark_G from insidekino.de thought last week that it would get ca. 550k total admissions but it had a bit better hold than expected (92.5k vs 84k) so maybe 600k?
with those kind of holds it might make it well past 600 ... 1mil seem out of reach but say 750k?
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early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
#1: Beekeper - 170k incl previews (better than I thought)
#2: Migration - 140k (-54%)
#3: Wonka - 110k (-57%)
#4: Boy&Heron - 100k (-29%, excellent)
#5: Aquaman2 - 85k (-61%)
as expected, a bloodbath once holidays are over, but Beekeeper is a positive surprise! And that would be an astonishing hold for Boy & Heron, more like an arthouse release.
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
Aquaman &The Lost Kingdom (Austria) ~ €1.96M Total (€375K WKend)
wow, that means it's about 75% ahead of Germany ... while the Austrian market has been stronger throughout 2023 (I'd guess, overall in the 25% range), it's still rare for a Hollywood release to have such different results!
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Germany's Top20 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Migration
305.809
681
449
1.178.812
10.799.709
+3
3
2
Wonka
253.918
771
329
1.887.376
17.618.113
-11
5
3
Aquaman 2
216.520
631
343
995.284
11.613.482
-16
3
4
Wish
174.587
628
278
1.601.742
13.634.576
-11
6
5
The Boy and the Heron
140.156
398
352
214.125
2.222.311
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1
6
The Hunger Games Prequel
67.889
396
171
1.524.112
17.003.349
-18
8
7
Napoleon
57.353
488
118
1.074.982
12.210.905
-22
7
8
Girl You Know It's True
56.666
563
101
263.580
2.718.349
-27
3
9
Perfect Days
46.948
144
326
171.298
1.648.778
+14
3
10
Next Goal Wins
39.807
322
124
50.693
440.146
-
1
11
Priscilla
36.967
169
219
42.609
410.862
-
1
12
Saw 10
30.243
299
101
414.378
4.336.470
-4
6
-
MET: Nabucco
23.271
185
126
23.271
702.261
-
1
13
Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl
20.069
187
107
421.247
2.917.936
+48
11
14
Checker Tobi 2
16.861
209
81
1.090.656
8.053.479
+29
14
15
791km
16.274
289
56
133.009
1.260.701
-39
4
16
Anatomie d'une chute
15.754
156
101
252.616
2.580.651
+33
10
17
Joan Baez I Am A Noise
13.842
93
149
39.061
357.447
+6
2
18
Wow! Nachricht aus dem All
13.433
338
40
76.452
583.466
-6
4
19
Atatürk 1881-1919 2
13.230
91
145
13.230
144.788
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1
20
Complètement cramé!
13.032
138
94
62.430
567.283
-26
3
A pretty good weekend - most releases with good holds or even increases. Among openers, Boy & Heron was stronger than I expected, extremely good number for a Miyazaki movie. Next Goal Wins stayed behind my expectations and barely made the Top10 while Priscilla opened way higher than I expected and came close in admissions despite only having about half the screens of Next Goal … I Was disappointed by the 2nd Atatürk movie; part one had a super PTA, this is an extremely steep drop - must have generated lousy WOM.
Holdovers are looking good, Wonka should get to 2,5mil total and Migration and Wish to 2mil. Aquaman 2, while dropping from the about 2mil total of ist predecessor, is still no flop but doing nicely, maybe coming close to 1,5mil total - let's keep in mind that Germany has always been a difficult market for superheroes. The Hunger Games Prequel is also doing better than I expected, and Napoleon has finally reached 1mil. Perfect Days has gone up from the already good OW, might get to 500k total - good for such an arthouse release!
In Austria, the weekend was even better, nearly all releases 20-40% ahead of Germany - Wonka and Migration should both reach the Golden Ticket für 300k admissions; even Wish has a small chance to reach this blockbuster status.
Next weekend: With holidays over, be ready for steep drops. The only big opener will be The Beekeeper; a six-digit-OW would be nice (but presales are low). Also opening on a samller scale: The Pod Generation; presales even lower.
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finale estimates a bit lower for Wonka but higher for Aquaman; Boy&Heron is also climbin higher the longer the weekend lasts - a satisfying results. Only Next Goal Wins seems to stay below the radar.
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early estimates for Germany's last holiday weekend:
#1: Migration - 300k (+1%, wow, going up)
#2: Wonka - 250k (-14%, still looking good for 2,5mil)
#3: Aquaman2 - 200k (-23%, good)
#4: Wish - 175k (-11%)
#5 and best opener: Boy&Heron with 200k incl previews, excellent (should be about 130k for the weekend)
#6: HungerPrequel - 70k (-16%)
If those estimates come true, fine holds for family releases and everything else is also holding up well; Heron's opening is even better than I expected - a nice overall weekend!
Still, compared to the corresponding 2018 weekend with the same weekday constellation, you can't help but be disappointed by the current market ... back then, we had 8 releases >100k admissions, the leader (SW8) at 466k 😭
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21 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
It is clear German doesn’t really like Wonka as compared to other European counterparts. Increasing that “little” is meh.
I think it's doing fine, the possible 2,5mil total is a lot more than I thought it could make. The book is not that well-known in German-speaking countries.
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Germany's Top18 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Migration
295.793
661
447
661.572
6.176.988
+102
2
2
Wonka
286.438
749
382
1.457.028
13.669.436
+36
4
3
Aquaman 2
259.271
615
422
647.772
7.641.050
+49
2
4
Wish
197.127
639
308
1.295.009
11.104.016
+67
5
5
Hunger Games Prequel
83.227
430
194
1.411.640
15.751.904
+80
7
6
Girl You Know It's True
77.561
522
149
172.927
1.797.546
+141
2
7
Napoleon
73.664
547
135
977.682
11.107.862
+79
6
8
Perfect Days
41.069
117
351
95.227
914.200
+107
2
9
Saw 10
31.627
323
98
371.706
3.884.733
+32
5
10
791km
26.880
351
77
102.373
967.602
+145
3
11
Complètement cramé
17.576
147
120
39.803
360.317
+132
2
12
Wow! Nachricht aus dem All
14.304
445
32
51.774
398.517
+79
3
13
Vem är du, Mamma Mu?
13.715
388
35
15.837
113.594
-
1
14
Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl
13.554
190
71
390.932
2.741.376
+55
10
15
Joan Baez I Am A Noise
13.088
80
164
13.501
124.211
-
1
16
Checker Tobi 2
13.051
241
54
1.062.381
7.852.863
+101
13
17
The Haunting of the Queen Mary
12.163
179
68
15.755
154.974
-
1
18
Anatomie d'une chute
11.898
137
87
227.895
2.324.598
+151
9
An ok weekend with good increases, the gamut of attractive releases makes up for the fact that there's still no blockbuster in sight. (Wonka might come close to 2,5mil total; however I find it strange that it had one of the lowest increases). Aquaman 2 is recovering from the soft opening; 1mil+ will happen and something like 1,3mil total seem like the goal now. The same goes for Migration which should have another strong week and might come close to 2mil in the end, as should Wish. Farther down the chart, Wim Wenders' Perfect Days had a nice PTA; with good WOM and reviews this might become a leggy run.
In Austria, similar results (with less stellar increases thanks to the 3-day vs. 4-day counting, however, Austria's Thursdays get counted in the end, too)
Next weekend: Two semiwide openers, both interesting: Waititi's Next Goal Wins and Miyazakis The Boy and The Heron. Top3 will be impossible for both but they seem like possible crowdpleasers which could see a long run. Also opening: The 2nd part of Atatürk 1881-1919; this should have a very strong PTA again.
And a bit of a look back on 2023:
There were some silver lines on the dark horizon - Barbenheimer seemed to put movie-going back on the chart; domestic crime comedy Rehragout-Rendezvous cleared 1,5mil total in Germany and 300k in Austria, the strongest of the series (no small feat for the 9th installment); but overall, it has been a piss-poor year for Germany's movie theaters, and Austria - while consistently performing stronger - was not much better. While a bit of the decline might be thanks to the writer's strike, there's no doubt that even without the strike, this would have been the worst year in this millenium, Covid-years excluded. Of course, the general state of the economy had an influence; when inflation rates hit households, entertainment is going to suffer, especially if it's expensive entertainment. In this regard, there's still distributors who force theaters into 3D, something I continue to not understand …
Here's hoping for an uptick in 2024! Happy New Year everyone!
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updated estimates; everything higher, Wonka now at 300k which would put it back on its track for 2,5mil total:
#1: Migration - 310k (+112%)
#2: Wonka - 300k (+42%)
#3: Aquaman2 - 250k (+44%)
#4: Wish - 210k (+78%)
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Early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany's New Year's weekend:
#1: Migration - 285k admissions (+95%)
#2: Wonka - 275k (+30%)
#3: Aquaman 2 - 240k (+38%)
#4: Wish - 190k (+61%)
#5: HG Prequel - 75k (+62%, unexpected increase)
Wonka with the smallest increase, maybe it's already exhausted its potential in the prior weeks - so, no 2,5mil for sure.
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Germany's Top12 xmas weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Wonka
210.968
749
282
958.673
8.991.608
-14
3
2
Aquaman 2
173.570
587
296
196.650
2.339.911
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1
3
Migration
146.287
635
230
197.387
1.818.871
-
1
4
Wish
117.874
643
183
982.551
8.434.707
-29
4
5
Hunger Games Prequel
46.166
434
106
1.274.088
14.205.644
-43
6
6
Napoleon
41.201
566
73
851.408
9.677.557
-48
5
7
Girl You Know It's True
32.185
478
67
48.347
477.501
-
1
8
Saw 10
23.884
340
70
314.540
3.276.650
-52
4
9
Perfect Days
19.859
111
179
19.859
190.611
-
1
10
Dunki
17.528
87
201
17.528
275.764
-
1
11
791km
10.990
340
32
58.238
533.404
-57
2
12
Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl
8.770
219
40
368.976
2.564.163
-16
9
Not a good weekend - with 24th on a Sunday, that was a given, but we're missing something with blockbuster potential. Wonka continues with the good holds, should top 2mil total. Aquaman 2 dropped a lot from the first one but is not flopping as hard as Marvels; in fact it might go up next weekend. Migration stayed below my expectations, but family releases should have very strong weekdays and following weekends - no flop, either.
In Austria, Wonka led the field with >30k admissions; Migration and Wish came in on #2 and 3, and Aquaman 2 was only #4 despite opening a little better than in Germany - so, we did have a much stronger weekend!
Next weekend: No wide openers, holdovers should see minimal drops or hopefully increases - in the case of family releases, even doubling last weekend's numbers is possible!
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2 hours ago, el sid said:
Mark_G from insidekino.de is a bit more pessimistic. He predicted 185k admissions OW (without (Monday) for Wonka and 2M total admissions. Wonka's weekend number is a bit better (210k) but 2.5M total admissions seem tough to reach now.
yep, 2,5mil seem very hard to reach but I wouldn't count it out yet - it's been having fine holds since the opening, so WOM seems ok. This week we'll see strong weekdays and hopefully a nice increase over the weekend, should come in with at least 300k, and holidays will continue until the weekend after where it should make at least 200k again. Don't underestimate those holiday legs!
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Thanks to the holiday alignment, actuals will be coming very late, but it seems the latest estimates were pretty accurate - 3 movies in the 200k range is not too bad, next weekend should see spectacular increases, with some releases maybe even doubling this weekend's numbers (that happened back in 2017 when we hat 24th on a Sun, too).
Austria seems to have had a much better weekend - Aquaman on the same level as Germany but the three wide family releases all doing better - maybe thanks to rainy weather in most regions. Wonka was nearly on the level of its OW; next weekend might count >40k admissions with a chance at 50k.
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early weekend estimates from insidekino.de for Germany:
#1: Wonka - 225k admissions (-9%, that would be excellent given the date alignment)
#2: Aquaman2 - 185k
#3: Migration - 195k incl previews
#4: Wish - 125k (-25%)
All other releases <50k
So, if true, Wonka keeps on with the good holds, Wish is dropping steeper than expected, Migration is doing so-so (obviously hurting Wish more than Wonka) and Aquaman2 is having a big decline from the first one - not as bad as Marvels but it will be hard to reach 1mil total; the first one counted exatly 2mil back in 2018.
Of course, with 24th on Sunday, the follwing weekdays and weeks will be more important than this weekend.
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Germany's Top13 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Wonka
246.213
719
342
647.593
6.249.334
-16
2
2
Wish
165.787
656
253
811.271
7.047.195
-22
3
3
Hunger Games Prequel
81.435
550
148
1.192.870
13.351.463
-25
5
4
Napoleon
78.937
691
114
768.265
8.824.295
-30
4
5
Saw 10
50.154
442
113
275.643
2.877.427
-28
3
6
791km
25.706
325
79
35.830
323.798
-
1
7
Wow! Nachricht aus dem All
15.024
456
33
17.095
133.969
-
1
8
Anatomie d'une Chute
13.201
170
78
197.554
2.011.038
+90
7
9
Silent Night
12.573
221
57
18.451
166.771
-
1
10
Das Beste kommt noch!
11.104
346
32
44.600
433.474
-47
2
11
Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl
10.489
253
41
356.410
2.486.019
-26
8
12
Godzilla Minus One
10.350
196
53
46.913
489.329
-3
3
13
Checker Tobi 2
10.346
425
24
1.030.671
7.632.264
-34
11
Wow, baaad weekend … some decent holds but everything on a very low level, not a single standout release. The best news is that Wonka is working better than I thought it would, should reach 2mil total with the holidays.
In Austria, not much better - 10-20% percent up as usual plus one domestic release doing ok, but still bad.
Next weekend: Finally some bigger openers: Migration as the family release, Aquaman 2 for the comic book crowd and Milli Vanilli biopic Girl You Know It's True - no blockbuster but at least three attractive releases which should work throughout the holidays.
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22 hours ago, el sid said:
The final trend from insidekino.de - as often in recent weeks no pleasure to read:
That was a comparatively nice trend, look at the actuals, THOSE are painful to watch
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Early weekend estimates for Germany from insidekino.de:
#1: Wonka - 275k admissions (-6%)
#2: Wish - 185k (-13%)
#3: Napoleon - 85k (-24%)
Contrary to my expectations, Wonka is holding better than Wish; good for both movies, but without big openers, once more a depressed weekend ...
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Germany's Top12 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Wonka
292.363
668
438
328.295
3.199.393
-
1
2
Wish
212.096
648
327
602.801
5.284.902
+3
2
3
Napoleon
112.274
694
162
649.391
7.497.216
-22
3
4
Hunger Games Prequel
109.032
578
189
1.075.961
12.072.974
-20
4
5
Saw 10
69.579
409
170
208.473
2.184.167
-26
2
6
Das Beste kommt noch!
21.095
342
62
25.514
249.783
-
1
7
Checker Tobi 2
15.626
495
32
1.017.426
7.542.809
-2
10
8
Morgen, Findus, wird's was geben
15.314
79
194
65.755
254.436
+
837
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Andre Rieu's White Christmas
15.151
283
54
15.151
268.947
-
1
9
Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl
14.146
331
43
344.374
2.440.426
+37
7
10
Trolls 3
11.953
415
29
741.361
6.337.442
-15
8
11
The Marvels
11.303
238
47
434.144
4.764.646
-47
5
12
Godzilla Minus One
10.724
191
56
32.785
343.031
-39
2
A so-so weekend thanks to the good opening for Wonka; Wish increased from last WE, also a good sign - should play well through the holidays. But only 12 releases >10k admissions, that's awful and indicative of the poor state of Germany's BO. The Marvels will probably drop out of my chart next WE, with a total of >500k - crazy how fast the MCU is fading.
In Austria, less awful numbers - a similar chart but everything 15-30% higher, plus last week's domestic opener Wie kommen wir da wieder raus managed an increase - nice!
Next weekend: The biggest opener should be Silent Night; also two semi-wide domestic openings, kiddie SciFi Wow! Nachricht aus dem All and comedy 791km. So, no hits - Wonka should stay in front, but depending on WOM the race for #1 might be closer than last weekend.
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9 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:
Too much drop for wonka. Not sure how can German cinema to cope this year end without a 10m juggernaut like avatar 2.
This will be the worst post-2000 year yet (except Covid lockdown years), there's no denying that fact. Even if Dune2 would have opened in its intended slot, that would make little difference in the end ...
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28 minutes ago, el sid said:
Yes, that's good :).
Mark_G predicted 1.2M final admissions for Wish last week and now it came in a little bit above expectations, so it should maybe get 1.25M (?).
depending on wom, it might play very well through xmas holidays, so there's potential for more. 2mil seem out of reach but 1,5 should be doable
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17 hours ago, Taylor89 said:
Can you pls explain what PTA means? was it limited?
The PTA number is just the number of admissions divided by the number of theaters it's playing in and as such is a very unspecific number; sadly we don't get per-screen or even per-show numbers. But when you take in the genre / format, it can be interpreted in a sensible way.
As an example, last week's Wish had a PTA of 320 - but as a family release it was playing during the day and even a lot of shows in the evening, often on more than one screen. So this PTA is actually pretty poor for an OW (ok, a lot of pressure has been taken out by already wide previews the WE before).
Otoh, Renaissance had a PTA of "only" 166 but it was only playing in the evening and mostly on smaller screens; in some theaters only one show / day. So those 166 are a good number, and the per-show-admissions must have been a lot higher than Wish's.
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Germany's Top14 last weekend:
title
admissions
th.
PTA
total adm.
total €
drop
week
1
Wish
206.199
644
320
339.864
3.019.574
-
1
2
Napoleon
144.646
650
223
490.920
5.700.746
-47
2
3
Hunger Games Prequel
137.059
670
205
922.187
10.411.933
-40
3
4
Saw 10
93.560
389
241
116.230
1.222.744
-
1
5
The Marvels
21.148
379
56
417.599
4.602.308
-57
4
6
Godzilla Minus One
17.473
228
77
17.473
187.623
-
1
7
Checker Tobi 2
15.978
580
28
999.806
7.417.939
-52
9
8
Renaissance
15.584
94
166
15.584
297.978
-
1
9
Trolls 3
14.085
501
28
727.216
6.224.861
-57
7
10
Sur les chemins noirs
11.241
129
87
19.251
173.620
-
1
11
Ein ganzes Leben
11.233
299
38
158.860
1.480.374
-51
4
12
Thanksgiving
11.156
315
35
99.567
1.011.289
-61
3
13
Die unlangweiligste Schule der Welt
10.750
436
25
281.250
2.108.964
-49
6
14
Neue Geschichten vom Pumuckl
10.284
407
25
326.366
2.279.891
-64
6
Usually, it's fine weather that has a negative impact on Germany's BO but this time, heavy snowfalls in the south led to a poorer-than-expected weekend. Wish opened softer than expected after the strong previews, but Saw 10 had a good OW and Renaissance also a good PTA.
In Austria, similar numbers but everything a bit higher, we had 4 releases in the 5-digit range for the 3-day-WE, plus a domestic dramedy on #5.
Next weekend: Wonka will probably be the biggest opener; the book is not that well-known in Germany but the 2005 Burton movie topped >1mil admissions so I'd say it has a decent chance to become #1 over the weekend. Also opening: Domestic dramedy Das Beste kommt noch (remake of a french one) which will probably not make a big splash.
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1 hour ago, Taylor89 said:
Do you have any number for Beyonce's movie?
as far as I've seen it's a pretty limited release in Germany, so no big numbers but we should get some. I don't know if it's already playing in Austria, at least in my city it has no screens.
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BO Germany/Austria: Dune first 2024 blockbuster (3mil admissions)
in International Box Office
Posted
Nice to see a Bavarian movie hit the Golden Ticket (the predecessor did already cross the 300k mark but Rehragout increased a bit) and Griechenland - a domestic production - coming pretty close!