[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

I think it works.

So Gravity will earn 2 times more than CF?))

But that means 100m+() for Gravity, because CF certainly can pull up ~50m

[Russia Box Office]

Around 900k for Thor on Wed too.In my best local theater HG:CF has taken 2(/4) full screens, big and medium, 14 showings per day with non-stop, that's Hobbit-like opening.

[Russia Box Office]

Finished watching our one of the best tv series, "Kitchen"("Kuhnya").  

There is quite bad compilation(more like promo) called "trailer" with Eng subs on youtube:

Check it out, give an opinion.

 

 

 

 

Terrible script I think. Most people think this is a war drama with drastic explosive scenes but eventually they found it all in the trailer not in the movie.

That's understandable)

 

Highest gross ever for a Russian movie,Cosmonaut

Ofc, my bad)

[Russia Box Office]

I maintain my $25m total gross for CF

I expect good legs, so, for total, min would be ~25m, 30m is likely, and 35m+ would be fantastic))Even 40m+ is possible, chances are small, but they are there.

Movie should be appealing, reviews had been good so far.I don't sense marketing though, haven't seen those horrible tv spots on tv yet.

 

 

How's starlingrad going in Russia?

Good, passed $50m, going for $53-55m cume, highest gross ever.

 

I didn't have a chance to watch it when I heard almost everyone giving it negative comments

Why so? It's quite mixed here too, but i think in China reasons are different.

[Russia Box Office]

Some theaters are already selling tickets, it's a good sign, i think.

10m is a min for the weekend, 12m is likely, 14m+ would be fantastic.

It depends on the currency very much, i hope RUB will go up, right now it's going down.

[Russia Box Office]

My "At Least" Forecast #2 for total gross, November 14th:

 

Name; Copies; Total gross $;

Carrie;  ~650;  5m

Last Vegas;  ~800;  3m

Three Musketeers(local);  ~1000;  2m

Rodencia y el Diente de la Princesa;  ~400;  0,3m

 

*There is also a bunch of other movies, but their results not worth mentioning at all.

 

Despite quantity of copies, Carrie will have more showings, WDSSPR practically owns the market, FAS should get interested.

 

And, of cource, Thor stays in the lead until CF.

 

[China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30]

Gravity release date now has been officially bumped one day upward to 11.19 (Tuesday). Will run 11.19~12.19, 31 days.

 

CF remains the same (11.21~12.20, 30 days). So Gravity should safely win that opening week. Both will share IMAX screenings.

Why not 18 then...? Pff.

 

And why only 1 month, what will happen if legs will be really good?

[Russia Box Office]

5 movies left for this year with 20m locked(99%): HG:CF, Frozen, Hobbit(40m, actually), and two local movies.

Funny enough, no other movies with even 10m locked.

 

First movie in 2014 to earn 20m+ will be 300: Rise of an Empire, probably.

[Gravity OS Thread]

PS: Warner got got by China with PACRIM....

$112M, how much of that gets into Warner's hands...?

25%...? 28m.

[Russia Box Office]

is there a holiday next week or something?

Nope.

[Russia Box Office]

I think 40m is locked now, Thor will earn around 37m before CF release, next weekend drop should be no more than 55%.

[Russia Box Office]

That seems like a good increase, is it?

Pretty much standart for day off.

[Russia Box Office]

Basing on ekinobilet numbers, 81% increase, 4m for Sat.

[Russia Box Office]

Ekinobilet gives 13% increase for Friday, so it's about 2.1m, at min.

[Russia Box Office]

However big franchises don't decline in Russia,they increase over the previous movies.POTC5 will benefit from 4 years of growth of the market (around 65-70% bigger and much more screens,particularly imax) and the marketing will be huge as well.I see a small increase,5-10% ahead.

You see, i'm not even sure, that the POTC4 result is true-true(^^)...Plus big "IF": http://forums.boxoffice.com/index.php?/topic/678-china-box-office/?p=108878163,6m is a huge result, no movie since POTC did it, even Avatar 2 would be lucky to beat the first one.

 

 

 

Well, CF will have a hard time beating Thor now, so, obviously, with 99% probability, it won't happen, and it's not just because Thor might gross more than 40m, it's also because people would be tired after him, blockbuster after blockbuster - bad idea. Volga better start huge marketing campaign on Monday to take people's minds off Thor.

CF tv spots are pretty average, btw - http://www.youtube.com/user/volgafilm/videos

[Russia Box Office]

how do you know POTC5 can't do it?

Depends on the quality, of course, may be, but the chances are so tiny, looking from today, there is a lot of factors, it'll take a lot of time for all "if's".So let's just look at POTC4 result alone, the facts we have: it had ground-breaking quantity of copies - 1716(it's more than 2500 if you compare to today's situation, most movies had less than thousand), huge marketing, expectations were high because previous parts for so good, ruble cost more(1 usd = 28 rub), but movie came out to be pretty average compare to the original trilogy, and i think a lot of people will remember that.

[Russia Box Office]

The Avengers 2 will be between POTC4 and Avatar imo,or 65m-117m.

Even POTC5 won't beat POTC4))

 

 

It could become the second movie reaching 100m.

Hell NO!

[Russia Box Office]

My heroic bet for next year is TASM2,I expect it over 30m,with 22m TASM was a success.

For now, there is nobody to stop spider-man from getting ~30m on the calendar, so there is a big chance and potential for increase. Maybe even ~40m, but movie and marketing should be really good.

[Russia Box Office]

Captain America failed here but given the Avengers effect I'm optimistic about the second one,around 20m total.

8.6m is not exactly a failure, but yeah, if movie will be better(+ not rusophobic), it could well go over 20m.

Did you know that in Russia "Captain America" called "First Avenger"?) No "America" in the title))

[Russia Box Office]

So how much after Sun?

From 20 to 23. Should pass 30m before CF release.

[Russia Box Office]

Ekinobilet shows 40% increase for Thursday, so it should be no less than 1.5m, not bad, but could be better, since it's formal OD...

[Russia Box Office]

Twilight parody

This one made almost 2m(1.84m) in 2010, quite a success, but it had huge budget for parody and was distributed by 20th Fox.

[Russia Box Office]

You are still selling it cheap, folks, even if Thor won't surpass 20m by large margin this weekend, it still going to do more than 30m, because biggest drop going to come only with CF on November 21, and even after CF release Thor is capable of making about 3m.

[Russia Box Office]

Today's releases, November 7th, My "At Least" Forecast for total gross.

 

  Name:   Copies:   Total gross $:

[*]

Thor:TDW formal wide release ~1400 32m

[*]

Geographer Drank Away His Globe   ~500   1,8m

[*]

Rasputin ~330   1m

[*]

Starving Games   ~300   0,4m

There is also a bunch of other movies, but their results not worth mentioning at all.

Next week there will be two ~1K copies movies: Last Vegas and Three Musketeers, plus Carrie with ~650 copies. Marketing campaign for Vegas is already started, so i think it's going to win.

[Russia Box Office]

How does that translate ?  Can it reach $25-$30 million ?

This is a very special situation, even with Monday 14m is really strong expectation, 30m was sure thing long before, it's not about start, it's about legs.

We can expect at least 18m by the end of this week