Cosmonaut
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Posts posted by Cosmonaut
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HG:CF OD: ~$2.1m(estimate, according ekinobilet).
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Dollar cost 33 rubles, last time it cost so much in the beginning of September, not good for CF
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So over/under 10m OW?
Definitely over.
MY FORECASTS FOR NEXT YEAR MOVIES IN RUSSIA, ENJOY!!!
Paranormal Activity 2014 : $10m
Jack Ryan Shadow Recruit : $20m
Lego : $33m
Robocop 2014 : $25m
Vampire Academy : $22m
300 Rise of an Empire : $23m
Need for Speed : $24m
Captain America The Winter Soldier : $28m
Rio 2 : $37m
The Amazing Spiderman 2 : $34m
X-Men Days of Future Past : $24m
Maleficent : $25m
Godzilla : $18m
How to Train your Dragon 2 : $30m
Transformers 4 : $46m
Fast & Furious 7 : $34m
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes : $23m
Guardians of the Galaxy : $25m
Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles 2014 : $18m
The Expendables 3 : $20m
Sin City 2 : $14m
Big Hero 6 : $13m
Interstellar : $26m
Dumb & Dumber 2 : $17m
The Hunger Games 3 : $40m
The Hobbit 3 : $65m
Pretty much all are very high. -~30% in order not to be disappointed
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Because the OD number will reflect the whole day, so it's not significant.
And CF won't beat Thor 2, nobody expected it. The Avengers effect is difficult to beat.
OD is not significant?
Thor didn't had the proper OD, so in order to pull up 30m+ CF needs to at least match Thor's formal OD.
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It's way too soon to say that.
Why so?)) I'm monitoring and comparing situation to Thor.
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Fire is not that good for OD, anything beyond $2m would be fantastic, but WOM is great, 8,5/10 on KP right now, i expect growth throughout the weekend.
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I remember about $12.2m, they probably modified this number given exchange rates or something
Or mzybe I'm wrong but it's not easy to admit
http://boxofficemojo.com/movies/?page=intl&country=R2&id=hungergames.htm
Exchange rate was better, not the other way around. So even $25m for CF will be more than double.
It would be better if we just added all currency's in one number, crazy, i know, but more precise.
According to ekinobilet HG:CF earned ~$15k yesterday))
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The first one ($12.2m) could be beat in 4 days with some luck ^^
You keep forgetting that first one earned 13,4m
Don't know when to go see CF, tomorrow with crowd, or on Monday without and half the price...
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30m would be a huge jump over THG, THG3 could reach 45m, maybe 50m
I doubt there will be big increase next year, especially if CF will do well this year.
Catching Fire will lose steam on December 12th with the release of Frozen.
It'll lose it much earlier, even though there is no decent competitor, there is huge number of wide releases, 3 ~1K copies movies coming out before Frozen, all local.
We should wait at least for OD result to start thinking about legs.
December 19th
18th, actually(preview
). Hobbit had 2128 screens last year, it is uncertain whether it's going to pull up that number this year.55m for The Hobbit 2 (yes I believe in it)
With much stronger competition(~10 really strong wide releases to compete with), even 45m will be a break through.
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My "At Least" Forecast #3 for total gross, November 21st:
Name; Copies; Total gross $;
HG: CF; ~1500; 30m
Delivery Man; ~450; 2,5m
Saving Santa; ~1000; 1,5m
*There is also a bunch of other movies, but their results not worth mentioning at all(less than 0.5m from now on).
CF is likely to lead at least 2 weeks, a lot of movies coming out next week, but even the biggest release,(~1000 copies) - local movie(action comedy) from WDSSPR(again), is a dark horse, could be a hit, could be a fail, they started commercials on tv with catchy song 2 weeks before release, so there is a chance to do decent numbers, but to beat CF on it second week... highly unlikely.
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So, is 2.5 times better result, than THG's, locked? Maybe smthing bigger?
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idk
not everyone wants to spend money to see such film in IMAX. Its not Gravity or Pacific Rim or other special effects driven film
It is, and it was shot in IMAX(partly).
btw how many IMAX screens do we have? i doubt that manyEvery single one of them. For 4 weeks until Hobbit.
Or... you meant how many "IMAX"-branded theaters in Russia? 32 theaters in Russia, 60 concluded contracts(on having-building) in CIS.
Overall, it'll have much more showings than Thor on his formal OW.
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I still expect a 25m total gross for CF
Unreasonable, it's a minimum/worst case scenario.
OW will be better, legs will be better.
Fun fact: more than 5% of OW IMAX tickets on CF are sold in few hours after one huge cinema chain released their schedule.
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~0.5m on Monday for Thor, so yes, 40m is beyond reach.Still, i think Thor could do that number, but WDSSPR had chosen Carrie.
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that is one country. What about countries like France, Germany, UK, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Denmark, Poland, Norway, Netherlands, South Korea, and Japan?
You want me to write each country? There is no point and i won't do that.
You can expect increase in every country and overall 2-2.2 times better OS.
u should consider its not in 3DIt's not a real game changer, especially since it has IMAX/4DX etc.
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600m is Harry Potter territory. Do you reall ythink it is going to make as much as a Harry Potter movie in pretty much every country?
Yes, pretty much.
In Russia it's certainly going to earn more than DH1(26) did, maybe even beat DH2(37m).
HP territory is actually more close to ~800m today, so 600m is not ballsy at all.
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Shocker ! Many of the first wave audience in China found Gravity underwhelming ... reasons given: too simple a story, without depth, not enough explosion and no match to what the advertising suggests ...
There goes the supposed to be great WOM ?
Or wait and see.
Srsly? Now i want the actuals even more. Everybody till today suggested that Gravity will win, this battle going to be interesting.
So will the CF take more screens if this is true?
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Tuesday early Screen Count
Gravity---------40.69%
Red2-----------14.32%
Thor2----------18.42%
EP--------------15.08%
Only 11,5% left for other movies?
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Very good Saturday increase for Thor 2. Not enough to catch Carrie though.
Carrie should not win.
Btw, reason(besides already mentioned) for such strong result is higher(than expected) quantity of copies. But ratings are quite low, so it won't be leggy.
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Pretty much all live screenings in Russia are sold out, don't know why is it so huge.
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Soviet films,I guess they are full of propaganda?
Less than others, don't worry.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_70_mm_filmsMost 70mm movies was filmed in the Soviet Union, it is a pity that no one will hold digital restoration even up to 2K(not to mention 8-12K - max res. of 70mm print), even if there is possibility to do so.
). Hobbit had 2128 screens last year, it is uncertain whether it's going to pull up that number this year.
Russia Box Office
in International Box Office
Posted · Edited by Cosmonaut
25m for 2 weeks is locked, especially if exchange rate will go up, i'm calling my forecast "at least" for a reason ;D
THG had 2x mp, with much stronger competition.