Elessar
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Posts posted by Elessar
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*lol* Some are giving me shit for being cautious.$300 million is looking a little more likely now if this continues.
$300m is pretty much a lock.
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Only for the weekend, which doesn't necessarily translate to the rest of the run.That CLEARLY means this is less frontloaded
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You can't just take away midnights, they influence the rest of the run.Look at another example, Spiderman 3, it didn't even manage $340m with a similar opening (with better IM) and Memorial Day on its 4th weekend.Now, THG seems to have better WOM and it very well might hit $400m but i repeat, it's not guaranteed.No. Potter 7 and Potter 8 both had a 2.68 multiplier without midnights.
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Agreed.It has a pretty good shot at $400m but it's not a lock.I think 350 million is a safe floor for now...
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No, $350m (assuming a $155m opening weekend).Even if it is as frontloaded as the last two Potter films (which this OW clearly indicates its not), it's still headed for 380 million.
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I could be wrong but i think TA is not going to break any records.
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I'm pretty sure Spiderman 3 sold more tickets than TDK on opening weekend. TDK had IMAX and skews older (pricier tickets).Also this would be the 4th or 5th best selling film by admissions on a opening weekend.Number 1 is TDK 173 million Adjusted.Spidey 3: 172 millionDMC: 162 millionSpiderman 1: 155 milionSo it will be the 5th best selling film in terms of tickets sold not 3rd....however...If it stays over 150 million and personally I think 153 million is the min now...It is a bigger opener then DH2, but also comparable to the "legendary" openers of the past decade.
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Again, not at all. Depends on how naturally frontloaded it is.I'll consider 400M a lock (as in definite) if the weekend estimates hold. Can't see why it shouldn't. WOM doesn't seem like its going to be toxic for this.
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Not at all.That would be amazing! If it makes +60 next weekend, 400M is pretty much locked.
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Of course it could.-60% of $155m = $62mCould THG make +60M next weekend
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I'd wait till next weekend before declaring $400m a sure thing.GOOD GOD! Thats a HUGE opening! 400M DOM, here we come
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No.If TDKR opens 200M+, will be 600M locked ?
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We won't have four $400m grossers in one year.all four will reach 400m, it would have been three but then THG came along breakout style.
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As far as i can see, this is the official studio estimate, should be pretty accurate.Great jump. Hopefully it can bump over 70M or stay at that number
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Saturday might drop from the friday-without-midnight-tally but i believe not much since we are not in summer, even BD1 dropped only slightly.
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Looks like i might have to eat my words. With a $66m Friday, $46m without midnights, this might still do $150m for the weekend, or come close at least.Fri: $66mSat: $48mSun: $37m--------------------WKND: $151m
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No you went nuts and clicked too many times. Patience is a virtue.
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I hope you're right.BTW, I think Cameron will find a way to come back alive from the Mariana Trench no matter what. He and the audience have unfinished business.
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Same here.I'm not sure, but of the big films opening in the next few weekends, only JC and "Titans" holds any interest for me.I will accept that I may be the "lone wolf" here, but it's possible that perhaps being older, I have a different desire in my movies.
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Like all Pixar films.It's definitely massively overrated by the online community, that's for damn sure.
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But that's the thing, these things don't shift suddenly by a huge amount, they develop gradually over time.Appeal is the right word and it has a lot to do with it.So if the economy was down 90% YOY, unemployment up by 250% and the weather -25, would people still go out to the cinema?Sorry because I don't believe "quality" has anything to do with it. 2011 had the best average in I'm not sure how long and it sold the worst since 1995. Take that disproved argument out of circulation.
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At best that affects a movie's gross by 5%, all of that put together.And since January the economy's been rebounding, unemployment is down, even the weather has improved...
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If moviemakers / studios would know the exact formula, what it is that makes people go to watch movies, there would only be breakouts. Moviemaking is not an exact science.I don't see anything about any of these breakout movies this year that have been more appealing than the usual crop of crap released this time of year.
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Bingo. People don't suddenly go more to theaters because the calender year has switched from 2011 to 2012.I am cautiously optimistic. These openings only mean that the films themselves were actually appealing to audiences. It does not mean that everything from now on will break out.
$300m is pretty much a lock.
Weekend Estimates - THE HUNGER GAMES | 155M
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