TLK
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Everything posted by TLK
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This argument works in September not in the last week of November. People have already seen most of the contenders. Guild screenings for other movies have been going on for weeks and their campaigns have been in full swing as well. If you are going to wait till end of November before screening your movie for the first time then you better hope the movie gets unanimous praise. Even with unanimous praise, a movie like ZDT struggled to win anything last year.
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I think they expected it to finish at 159-160 but went with the OD record number. This drop is probably a lot bigger than they expected. This drop itself will be a minor story on box office sites tomorrow. -
They didn't fudge it. They underestimated the NFL effect which is usually minimal for other YA movies like Harry Potter and Twilight.
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I think Friday was overestimated by around $1.5 million. We'll see in a few hours if that's correct.
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Thor is going to limp around for the next three weeks and will get killed by Hobbit. Its multiplier isn't going to be that much better than IM3.
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I think they have overestimated the Friday numbers. Unless Sunday drop is being under-estimated it will likely drop from the estimates.
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My guess is that this will get mixed reception and its only major nominations will be BP by default , Supp. Actress and maybe screenplay.
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Sasha Stone @AwardsDaily 1h Enjoyed much of American Hustle. Juicy performances throughout. Need second viewing to fully absorb. JLaw is fab.
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Meryl Streep is the next Meryl Streep. - riczhang
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Cooper isn't happening this year. The only buzz around him this year is about his haircut in the movie. Like I said, it will either be JLaw or nothing in the acting category.
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I will be surprised if it stays above $160 million with the actuals.
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That's a really good point. It remains to be tested but I have noticed a lot of saturday performances this year that have defied the usual pattern.
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I don't think they will because ,in all probability, they have over-estimated the Friday numbers. Friday will likely fall below $70 million with actuals.
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So anywhere between 157-160 million weekend. That's pretty solid.
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Movies are doing better on Saturdays this year and I have no idea why. I have been noticing this pattern for a while. At first I was thinking that some people are picking Saturday matinees instead of Friday evening shows because of Colorado shootings but that was a long time ago.
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Too early to say. IM3 had a similar Saturday increase pattern but finished with a Harry Potter like < 2.4 multiplier.
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It had a similar Friday.
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Yeah, Adams is not gonna happen for this movie. It is either Lawrence or nothing in the acting category.
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Studios believe the tracking as they use the tracking info to make changes to their advertising strategies. If the tracking was saying 175-185 then that's probably what the suits at Lionsgate were hoping for as well.
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$33k Friday from 4 theaters. Solid number.
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For some reason all new movies have had huge Saturdays this year. Fronloadedness can only be measured after we see its second weekend drop.
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Low 50s Saturday will translate to high 150s weekend.
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I agree. Saturday should be fine but I expect it to have a bigger drop on Sunday because of NFL.
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I think last Harry Potter movie was an outlier because of nostalgia. The first books were released over a decade ago and the franchise lasted a decade. So many people grew up with the franchise that they had to go back to the theaters to watch the finale. I expect MJ2 to be more like BD2 and see a much smaller increase over MJ1.
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This is just a case of a top-tier YA franchise regressing to the mean. Its opening looks to be right in line with average openings of Harry Potter and Twilight movies.
