TLK

This weekend's worldwide Box Office. http://www.rentrak.com/section/movies_and_tv_everywhere/top_entertainment_rankings.html#1 I am surprised by the 2 Guns numbers. It has made just $17 million from 34 international territories. What's up with this number ? Percy Jackson has $183 million WW while Elysium is at $264 million WW so both of these movies have done alright overall.

I agree. Supporting categories are usually where you can see sentimental favorites sneak in. James Gandolfini is recognized as a great TV actor who hasn't received his dues in movies. I can see AMPAS voters voting him in,

He is a lead. He ruled out supporting nomination at the Telluride festival. http://www.deadline.com/2013/08/telluride-nebraskas-bruce-dern-doesnt-mince-words-on-why-he-isnt-supporting-anyone/

The movie should have ended at the freeze frame but my guess is that the producers or distributors wanted a "happy" ending. IMO, the ending really messed up the movie.

Average primetime 30 second TV ads cost around $115k. Let us say they ran ONLY 400 ads in total for an average cost of $25k each. That's $10 million right there. Add the cost of US/Canada internet, radio and print advertising. Add the distribution costs for a 2400 theater release and $20-25 million is the absolute minimum cost of P&A these days. There is a very solid economic reason why studios prefer big budget movies as ten $20 million small budget movies may cost you $250-300 million in P&A whereas you can market one $200 million movie for $100-125 million.

^^^ The formula is double the production budget for mid to big budget studio movies. Say , if a $60 million movie makes $120 million worldwide then it will probably break even after every revenue stream (VOD, home media, TV rights) is accounted for. That formula doesn't work for small budget wide release movies because the P&A budget is so much more than the production budget. Also in the case of small budget movies multiple distributors are involved. Relativity only bought the US rights so they won't see a dime of the money the movie makes elsewhere. The movie is already a success for the producers. Not so much for the distributor.

Don Jon 's opening is the reason why distributors shy away from wide release format for off-beat movies. Relativity bought it for only $4 million but the minimum P&A budget for a 2400 theater release is probably around $25 million so it needs to make $50 million to break even and it won't even come close to that number in theatrical release. I think it will ultimately make some money after VOD etc. but the movie distribution economics is so fucked up when a movie that cost around $5 million to produce can't break even until it has made $50 million at the box office.

Friday Box Office: ‘Cloudy With Meatballs 2′ Beefs Up For $12M And $44M Weekend, ‘Rush’ Expands For $4M and $12M, ‘Baggage Claim’ And ‘Don Jon’ $3M/$9M

Problem with Diana was that she was very, very well-known and very, very few actors can pull off roles like this. Elba won't get nominated either. Problem with Grace of Monaco is that AMPAS members and viewers in general don't really care about Hollywood royalty so Grace was DOA.

$45k PTA is good but if this was a true indie movie, one not backed by a major studio, then a $45k PTA from 5 theaters doesn't even guarantee a $12-13 million total. This will make more obviously because the studio has money to spend in P&A but I am just trying to put this number into perspective..

Rush may not be happening but Howard is the sort of guy who can get the last Best Director slot. Popular guy with the AMPAS voters and a guy who just made a very well-received movie.

I don't think Amy Adams has much of a shot this year when you have some really good actresses with true leading performances. From what I understand, Adams has a supporting role and the movie is a Christian Bale show.

Movies need an early start. Almost all of the BP winners of the past decade have had early starts (September , October). The truth of the matter is that Oscars voting and holiday have an almost complete overlap which prevents a lot of Oscar voters from seeing late releases. Theoretically, voters should watch all 20-30 legitimate contenders before voting. Practically, most voters have made up their minds weeks before their votes are due.

11) I love Cruise. There is a reason he has been an A list actor for more than two decades. 15) The Butler has 41 producers. I think it is pretty common for Indie movies to have a lot of producers for $$$$ reasons.

The True Box Office A-ListActors RDJ Johnny Depp Denzel WashingtonBrad Pitt (Here because of WWZ)Will SmithTom CruiseLeonardo DiCaprioAdam Sandler (Star is in decline)Matt Damon George Clooney ( A bit over-rated but he chooses difficult movies and he carries them on his own shoulders)ActressesAngelina JolieJennifer AnistonMelissa McCarthy (Jury is still out on her long term marketability + She has very little appeal internationally)Sandra Bullock (She has held A-list status for only 4 years out of her 20+ year career) Maybe I am forgetting a couple of actors but this is more or less the complete list of actors who have a track record of carrying movies without any help (good co-Actors, great reviews, awards recognition etc.).

I fully agree with that article. Unless an actor/actress can OPEN a movie on their own without any help they are not A-list in terms of Box Office. Denzel's movies usually make around $170-200 million worldwide and they do good home media and TV business internationally. Here is another way of looking at it. Pick any movie that Denzel has done in the past decade, replace him with an actor who makes $2 million and then try to project how much that movie will make. Safe House ? Unstoppable ? The Book Of Eli ? These are generic action movies that don't even make $75 million worldwide these days. If Denzel is more than doubling the total take of the movie then he is worth an additional $18 million.

They are spending $27 million which is a lot of money for TWC so they are definitely not going to bury it. I am not sure if Harvey is going to wait until October 2014 to release it though so its Oscar chances are now much more limited.

Harvey was never going to be able to release it this year. This is why I wanted LGF to buy the movie. They could've easily released it n December if they were committed.

Naomi Watts is good enough to win an Oscar but she needs to stop chasing the damn thing. This role was just a bad idea and she picked it only because of awards recognition.

I think there is a possibility that the three bolded movies may get lost in the shuffle. The story that they are telling may not be robust enough to survive in a crowded field that already covers a large variety of serious topics and the box office may not be there as well.

This ain't bombing. I am still not sold on a $150 million DOM gross but $100 million will happen for sure.

So August Osage County is getting mixed reviews. People who are familiar with the play seem to be the most critical but the actors are getting good reviews across the board.

If Universal wants another franchise then this is happening otherwise it won't happen. My guess is that they want a franchise after some of their experiences this year and the last. $400 million WW with $150 million DOM makes a sequel very likely. As far as Hems is concerned, he is already under contract for TA2 and for this movie so he will make room whenever they want to film it.

Meryl is not attending the premiere because of illness but there is a long line at the premiere. Scott Feinberg ‏@ScottFeinberg 1m PIC: Line outside Roy Thomson Hall for premiere of @WeinsteinFilms' highly-anticipated AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY pic.twitter.com/Q2I4lHNpyX

Matrix Reloaded is pretty good on its own but pales in comparison to the original. Revolutions is just a very weak movie even if you view it in isolation.