BadAtGender
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Posts posted by BadAtGender
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Quoth the RTH:
1 hour ago, Rthanos said:Tues looking like
Dragon 3.9, Alita 1.5,Family/ITR 850k, GB 560k
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On 2/19/2019 at 11:12 AM, ChipMunky said:
Does anyone have an explanation why twitter views just exploded over the last 1-2 years?
Better embedded video player?
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17 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:
Probably not 😅
It's unlikely, but certainly possible. The response to the trailer definitely shows that interest is still extremely strong.
I think it stands a good chance of out grossing the original. It might even see a boost up to I2 levels, which is an extra 50%.
However, it needs to get an extra 50% globally in order to hit 2b. In some areas (like Japan) that might be an impossible ask. And also there are a few things to indicate that the exchange rates won't be in its favor.
I'd say something in the 1.5b range is a better guess, right now.
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4 hours ago, shayhiri said:
There's absolutely nothing whatsoever wrong with "strong female characters". See Alita, a perfect example. No one would have anything against it. On the contrary - they will be better liked by the viewers as a whole.
But they have to be likable. Strong means nothing, if you're also a b!tch - just like with male characters. (Lesbian is also nothing wrong - but only if it makes sense in the context of the story.)
Good thing is, so far such characters like Elsa and WW have been pretty likable. I've got bad news for anyone who tries to go the other way.
Uh, that's not what "strong female character" means.
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12 minutes ago, Dingdong said:
With the change in tone of Frozen, I hope this can kickstart the notion that animated movies are NOT solely made for kids’ entertainement. Animated films are of GENRE THAT IS FOR EVERYONE
Yeah, uh, don't extend the tone of this teaser to the whole movie.
This is still going to be a musical. It's still going to have humor and goofy moments. It's still primarily going to be aimed at girls.
For the first film, they started off the marketing trying to play up the humor, and it wasn't until quite late that they leaned on what gave the film traction. This time around it seems like they want to lean into the adventure aspect as well as showing that Elsa will be onscreen more.
They may not show much of the humor, but I expect something regarding the music. For a comparison, look at AoU (or really most MCU films). The trailers generally sold a lot of grim, serious action, but the film itself had a lot of jokes.
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Here's my list. I think when I originally put it together, it came to about 90 or so. I wanted add enough to make it an even 100. (not necessarily the last 10 or so, because in the consideration, I remembered some movies I ranked slightly higher.)
On 9/24/2018 at 2:47 PM, ElastiRoc said:1. Frozen
2. How To Train Your Dragon
3. Whisper of the Heart
4. Inside Out
5. Watership Down
6. Kiki's Delivery Service
7. The Iron Giant
8. Paprika
9. Incredibles 2
10. Spirited Away
11. Moana
12. Lilo & Stitch
13. Song of the Sea
14. Ponyo
15. Zootopia
16. The Lion King
17. Chicken Run
18. The Castle of Cagliostro
19. Up
20. The Incredibles
21. Summer Wars
22. Akira
23. Monsters, Inc.
24. Millennium Actress
25. Princess Mononoke
26. The Last Unicorn
27. Wall-E
28. The Breadwinner
29. How to Train Your Dragon 2
30. Persepolis
31. When Marnie Was There
32. Tokyo Godfathers
33. Pinocchio
34. The Emperor's New Groove
35. Aladdin
36. The Secret of Kells
37. Ernest & Celestine 38. The Girl Who Leapt Through Time
39. April & the Extraordinary World40. The Cat Returns
41. Snow White & the Seven Dwarfs
42. Ratatouille
43. My Neighbor Totoro
44. Dumbo
45. Coco
46. Boy and the World
47. Coraline
48. Grave of the Fireflies
49. Sleeping Beauty
50. Porco Rosso
51. Wallace & Gromit: Curse of the Were-Rabbit
52. Robin Hood
53. The Hobbit
54. Bambi
55. Mulan
56. Kubo & the Two Strings
57. The Secret World of Arrietty
58. The Book of Life59. Fantasia
60. Howl's Moving Castle
61. Perfect Blue
62. The Boy & the Beast 63. When Sita Sings the Blues
64. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
65. Wolf Children
66. Castle in the Sky
67. Cat's Don't Dance
68. Paranorman
69. Nausicaa
70. Ghost in the Shell
71. Shaun the Sheep Movie
72. The Secret of NIMH
73. Only Yesterday
74. The Wind Rises
75. Isle of Dogs
76. Bolt
77. Tangled
78. Cinderella
79. Beauty and the Beast
80. The Nightmare Before Christmas
81. A Goofy Movie
82. Wreck-It Ralph
83. Fantastic Mr. Fox
84. A Cat in Paris
85. The Princess and the Frog
86. The Thief & the Cobbler
87. Wizards
88. Wings of the Honneamise
89. An American Tale
90. The Little Mermaid
91. The Adventures of Prince Achmed
92. The Prince of Egypt
93. Early Man
94. The Great Mouse Detective
95. James & the Giant Peach
96. The Jungle Book
97. The Triplets of Belleville
98. Titan A.E.
99. Transformers the Movie
100. South Park: Bigger, Longer, Uncut
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Seven of my top ten have been named already, including my top three.
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18 hours ago, chasmmi said:
26th - Akira: 16 Votes, 1 First, 3 Top 5, 1 top 10 411 points
Previous List - 53rd
Pretty much the only thing I know about Akira is that the bike is in Ready Player One.
YEp this is the final film on the list that I have not seen and you do not win a cookie for guessing beforehand where it was from. This film has had a dramatic rise since the last list, one of the biggest anywhere on the list in fact. It is also the penultimate film on the list to receive less than 20 votes and as such must be very high on the average points per vote table.
It is also the first film to receive 4 top 5 votes, and only two over films outside the top 15 will equal or surpass this acheivement. I suppose the one question I have to those fans is, has it aged well enough for new viewers to enjoy it, or will it feel dated in the same way that watching the Original Halloween these days is pretty dull as everything it innovated has been done to death since its release and done in shinier flashier colours to boot.
Akira is still very much worth watching. In terms of films done without computer aid, it's among the most technically impressive made, up there with Pinocchio and The Thief and the Cobbler. It was a huge production, and I believe they had to keep pulling in more animators around Tokyo to help complete it because it was so involved. Like at one point, basically every studio that wasn't Ghibli was probably doing something for Akira.
And the music is just amazing. Legit one of the best movie soundtracks ever made.
Plus... PLUS! a plot point is about the Olympics that happened in Tokyo... in 2020, which is an awesome bit of prescience by Otomo. I'm going to be disappointed if the Olympic Stadium doesn't look right.
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22 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:
Your Name's plot resolution (especially with everything regarding the shrine in the woods) is pretty steeped in cultural influences though so I guess that's just subjective depending on how it personally resonates with each person. Though you have underlined one of the bigger reasons why a "Hollywoodized" remake would be even more pointless unless they keep the Japanese settings, people and cultural aspects.
There are plenty of films that are steeped in the culture, though. Spirited Away is. The Boy and the Beast is. Paprika is. Your Name isn't particularly unique in that regard, and the cultural aspect of the resolution doesn't make it particularly good. It's ultimately a cute film with a clever premise that's undermined by an overly melodramatic conclusion.
22 hours ago, Spidey Freak said:Your Name though has shown that Shinkai is capable of growing as a storyteller, even if some of his peers are more effective than him (I haven't seen Yonebayashi's works yet, but Hosoda has a better handle on human emotionality and character development than Shinkai for sure).
Yeah, it's better than most of his films. I'd argue that A Place Promised in Our Early Days is better... and possibly Voices of a Distant Star, but he's still pretty one-note for emotional resonance, even in those. It could be far, far worse, though. Children Who Chase Lost Voices is extremely bad.
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I'm gonna agree with Chas about Your Name. Well, sorta. I don't despise it, but I mostly find it just fine and little more. There are some cute scenes, some really good background animation, and the twist is pretty clever, but the plot resolution is pretty blah, and, as with pretty much all his films, Shinkai leans into melodrama like he's freebasing it. It's better than most of his films, but it's still not very good.
Compared to his contemporaries (Hosoda and Yonebayashi), he's a very distant third in the running for "Miyazaki's successor". (Although even those two are behind the two who have sadly passed on: Kon and Kondo.)
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On 10/12/2018 at 6:33 AM, chasmmi said:
So...
Nausicaa
Castle in the Sky
Ponyo
Kiki
What is the optimum order of viewing?
Kiki - An absolute classic, with a totally amazing climax scene. Overall, it's just a great character development film, to see someone overcome their anxieties and feelings of helplessness.
Ponyo - Newer than the rest, but the animation is superb. Ghibli had a period where they experimented with some computer animation, but had abandoned it entirely by the time Ponyo came out. The storm running scene is as visually engrossing as some of the ocean scenes in Pinocchio, but with an entirely different feel. It's probably Miyazaki's youngest targeted film besides Totoro, but since he's so keen on getting the character mannerisms exactly right, it still draws you in.
Castle in the Sky - Do you like steampunk? Most of Miyazaki's films have some element of steampunk, but CitS is probably the preeminent example of that.
Nausicaa - Where CitS is steampunk, this is... bio punk? It's got an especially overt environmentalist theme, which weaves its way through all of Miyazki's films, but it becomes more subtle over time. Some great visual sequences.
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3 hours ago, TOG said:
My list:
1. Ratatouille
2. Chicken Run
3. WALL-E
4. Coraline
5. Rango
6. other inferior films
Oh, I forgot Rango.
Oh, well.
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On 8/9/2018 at 10:25 AM, filmlover said:
My twitter timeline has been on fire for this, particularly Mulan's outfit. So much fanart.
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On 8/1/2018 at 11:54 PM, Quigley said:
Ray Subers has said that thesed charts are inaccurate. My estimate for Nemo is $575M.
It seems like that Nemo is only adjusting the original run, not the 3D re-release, which adjusts to about 48m, so even if you just add those together, it's 570m or so. Actual tickets is probably going to diverge somewhat more because original Nemo had no 3D or PLF, and I2 probably skews slightly older (because of the 14 year gap, rating difference, and the superhero theme.) Adjusted numbers are... fudgy, and to be taken with extreme grains of salt.
You know what else needs grains of salt? My weekly update of my box office projector.
In week 7, Incredibles 2 earned 12.5m, pushing the total past 578. This was a drop of about 37%, which isn't quite the stunner we saw last week, but is pretty solid. We can probably chalk up some of that fall to the fairly direct competition from Teen Titans Go to the Movies, which is also animated and about superheroes. This is pretty much the last competition it will face for a long time. Smallfoot is the next animated film, in late September, and Venom is the next superhero offering in early October. The family offerings between now and then include AXL. And nothing else.
37% is interesting, because it's just barely under the mark needed for 600m. Drops continuing like this would see I2 end up with about 599.5m. 36% has a final total around 600.5m. So, it's probably going to get over that mark, though it will probably need a late run bump or two to do it easily.
If, instead, it follows last week's trend of 25% drops (assuming the drop this week was due to TTGTTM more than anything else) would see it above 615m. This is really good. It's not, unfortunately, enough to edge it past Star Wars: The Last Jedi to get to 8th on the all time list. In order to do that it will need to hold slightly better, now, around 22-23%.
And it would need to be about 1% better (21-22%) in order to best The Avengers for 7th all time.
6th all time would mean getting ahead of Jurassic World's 652m, which would need drops better than 15%. We can pretty safely assume it isn't going to do that, since there's no past behavior to indicate it, and films that radically change their drop pattern tend to do it earlier in their run than the 8th week. (Frozen did it on about week 4, for instance.)
Which means for all time placement, it's assured at 9th, since that's what it's already at. 8th or 7th is still possible, although not incredibly likely. 600m does seem like a strong chance, although not absolute.
50% drops from here on out would still see it finishing above 590m.
That's all I got. I don't know how many more of these updates I'll do, but it should be at least for another week or two.
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I hadn't seen the trailer until I saw Fallout and... yikes. I didn't think it would be possible to make the first moon landing look boring and bland, but here we are.
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13 minutes ago, grim22 said:
Yeah, I finally canceled today. I'm still on the service through next Monday or so, but I doubt that there will be anything that I'll see. Scrolling through the app, I can go see a handful of movies like Eighth Grade, Hereditary, or Sicario. Mission Impossible is shown as premium only. Mamma Mia, Equalizer, Hotel Translyvania, and Teen Titans don't show up on the app at all, regardless of the theater I check. The last time I did see those films (Thursday or Friday), they were all surge pricing at $6.
So, it looks like over the course of about 10 months, I saw 40 films. (Well, 38 or so. I saw a couple of them twice when that was an option.) The first was Bladerunner 2049. The last was Skyscraper. I know that there were multiple films I watched because of Moviepass, especially over the winter.
I'm not sure what I'll go with next. Perhaps Sinemia. It's a slight step down in number of movies, but it does cover the Cinerama, so that's a huge bonus.
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On 7/27/2018 at 9:59 PM, Ryan Reynolds said:
I'm suddenly reminded of capalert.com, which was one of the sites I tended to loop back around to regularly in internet days of yesteryear, mostly because it was fascinating to see... kind of like a trainwreck. Every instance of something offensive was noted as a negative, regardless of context, and wrapped together in an arcane scoring mechanism to determine which films were okay (in a specifically fundamentalist christian context) for children to watch.
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What a difference a week makes.
Last time around, the simple stupid projector was laying it out that most of the likely paths probably had I2 ending up somewhat short of the $600m mark, possibly close enough to get nudged over the line, if Disney so desired (Black Panther is still shy of $700m, even after a 129% weekly bump), but more than likely too far to be worth the effort.
And now?
Well, now, I2 in week 6 earned a whopping $19.8m, down just under 25%! That is an amazing hold, considerably better than any previous week, and it puts things in a nicer perspective. It should be noted that since we're getting late into the run, this doesn't shift things up majorly, but it does alter a few possibilities from more fringy to somewhat likely.
First up, the Shrek 2 adjusted number of $650m or so. In order to get there, I2 will probably need to get those drops under 20%. Sadly, it seems as if that Dreamworks/Pixar rivarly from the early 00s will remain with Dreamworks holding that adjusted gross trophy. Maybe Toy Story 4 will get there next year? We'll have to see.
But, if we just look at that 24.5% drop, well, that would mean a final total around $625m. And that would jolt it up to 7th place on the All Time Domestic chart, ahead of both Star Wars: The Last Jedi and The Avengers. In fact, it could thread a very narrow needle between them with about 26% drops.
$600m, a number that used to indicate a movie was doing well beyond anything even close to normal in terms of business, but after the first few months of this year, seems pretty much a given for the Disney monolith that we'll likely see producing all our media within the next decade...
Sorry.
$600m will need 36% drops. That's... quite reasonable. I definitely wouldn't say it's a shoe-in (only two weekly holds are better than that, and one of those was holiday boosted) but it seems very possible.
A 40% weekly hold from here on out would see it finish north of $595m, but probably too far to make pushing it to the mark worth it.
I'd guess that the make or break mark is about 38%, right now. If I2 holds to that, it'll end up around $598m on its own, so it might be close enough to make pulling a few strings worth it.
If $600m does happen, it'll be the fourth film Disney released within six months of each-other to cross that mark. There are only five other films that have previously done it, so this has been a pretty ridiculous run for the company.
Next week we'll get to see if this really great hold is trend or if it was a weird one-off. See you then!
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Saw it this evening. It delivered the mindless summer action fun I didn't know I needed today, and thus I enjoyed myself pretty much throughout.
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4 minutes ago, meriodejaneiro said:
You could, maybe, add to your predictions the fact that I2 will be on theaters on Labour Day we, at the beginning of september. Dory and TS3 added around 3M on that 4-day we. I2 is outpacing them both, so may be with that Labour Day we expansion I2 could add some 5M that we. That could round up your numbers to the 600M dom.
I don't really want to deviate from the math of my spreadsheet too much. I'm willing to make some general assumptions and will note when a week that has just passed had something within it that may throw off the pattern, but if I start really looking at calendar configurations and noting that, it diverges far from the "simple, stupid" part of the design.
Or, to put it another way, these aren't predictions from the math side of things. My commentary might paint it as such, in as much as I'll say if something's likely or not, but don't take any of that as too literal. I don't (and nobody should) expect a film to hold to exactly the same drop for several weeks.
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Time for another simple, stupid box office projector update.
In week five, Incredibles 2 pulled in 26.2 million. That's a 40.7% drop from week four, which does indicate nice course correction. The total is now up to 545.8m. Since last week, I2 has passed Rogue One and The Dark Knight to edge its way into the top 10 of all time.
(Side note, as we're right around the ten year anniversary of TDK, which was absolutely huge and arguably ushered in the era of mega-blockbusters that we're seeing to this day. The next film to pass it will knock it out of the top ten. When it finished its first run, it was the second biggest movie of all time, but with Avengers 4, Toy Story 4, Aladdin, The Lion King, and Star Wars 9 all due out next year, it definitely looks as if it will have to give way to something soon.)
Anyway, currently I2 is 9th on the domestic list. In order to get to 8th, it will need to edge past Star Wars: The Last Jedi, which is at 620.2m. How likely is that? Just a second, and I'll get back to it.
First, I want to update the Shrek2 watch. As I noted a couple weeks ago, Shrek 2 remains the highest adjusted grossing animated film that was never re-released. (TLK's original run adjusts higher, of course, thanks to 10 more years of inflation... also, holy crap I just realized that the live action TLK will be released 25 years after the first... However, it's also had a few re-releases.) The Shrek 2 total is just a smidgen past $650m. For I2 to get to that mark, it's going to need to have holds at the 20% mark or so. Which is, unfortunately, not likely to happen. Still, I suppose stranger things have happened.
Now, what about TLJ? Well, to get there, I2 will need about 26% drops, or slightly better. Again, that's probably out of reach, so we'll likely see it stay at the #9 slot on the top 10 list for now. Whatever the second film to enter the top 10 is will knock it off that list.
600m, the mark I identified as likely 2 weeks ago needs 32% drops. That's slightly more reasonable than last week, but only slightly. I was probably in error when I made that estimate.
If it has 35% drops, just about tying its best weekly hold, it would end up just under $595m. The good news is, that's possible, though still unlikely, and given the things that happen late release, it probably means a final tally a little bit higher would be in the cards. The bad news is, that's probably not quite enough to justify any extra shenanigans to get to the $600m mark. (A film probably needs to get within about $2m or so before fairly normal practices will get it over a century mark. More than that, and the studio really needs to drag things out, which looks increasingly suspect. See Spectre or A Wrinkle in Time for examples.)
40% drops would see a final tally right around 585m. As I noted last week, this feels like a likely area for it to finish up in. Probably just slightly higher because of things that happen in the late run. but not significantly so.
45% still does 577m, and 50% drops slots it in at 572m.
If, by some reason, it fell off a cliff and started seeing 55-60% drops, that would put the final total around 563-568m.
It's still got gas in the tank, but the possible end points are starting to narrow quite a bit.
Another update next week. See y'all then!
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I'm a few days late for this, but it's time for another update of the simple, stupid box office projector.
If you remember last week, I indicated that $600m was a likely final target for the film, or at least in that range. Let's see how week four does to keep it on that pace.
Well, the film earned $44.24m for the week. This pushed the total to an amazing $519.6m. This made it the 11th biggest movie of all time, sitting between Rogue One and Beauty and the Beast (2017). It also definitively set it as the biggest animated movie of all time and, I suppose, because it's ahead of BATB, it's bigger than any animation derived film, too. At least until The Lion King releases next year, possibly.
However, the weekly drop was about 45%, and that is a bit short to keep 600m in easy reach. To give you an idea about how much the landscape has changed, last week I2 needed about 19% drops to end up above The Lion King as the biggest modern animated move on the adjusted chart. This week, 19% drops would only get it to the $700m mark or so, and just ahead of Black Panther. Getting ahead of TLK would need about 13% drops.
So, we can probably dispense with the amusing fiction that anything up in that realm is going to be possible.
What about the Shrek 2 target? Well, 25% drops would get it there, eventually. Again, that's probably a bit too much of an ask. So let's continue on down the track.
$600m, which was likely last week sits at 35% drops. And that's not impossible, but it feels like more upper end than mid-range, now. Since we're already late in the weekend, we know that in the face of the release of Hotel Translyvania 3, I2 fell another 45% for the weekend. If that's the trend going forward we'll be looking at a final total around $575m.
However, I think that there might be some good news. Part of the reason week 3 was so strong was because of the holiday boost. Somewhat contrary to conventional wisdom, I2 had an amazing July 4th, down less than 10% from June 27th. And the other weekdays had week-on-week drops under 30%.
Week 4, in contrast, didn't have those boosts, so the weekdays saw drops between 48% and 63%. We won't be seeing a similar situation going forward, and the hit should course correct a bit.
Once we look past the holiday comparisons and the big competition hit of Friday, we can see week-on-week drops of between 35% and 40%. From the projector, that would put the final total between $585m and $600m.
I'll update again next week, hopefully before the weekend has spoiled a bit of the surprise.
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Weekend Thread (3/1/2019 - 3/3/2019) - Weekend Estimates - Page 19.
in Numbers and Data
Posted
It looks likely that Captain Marvel will become the biggest movie of the year after its opening weekend.
Trivia for y'all: what is the latest in a year a film has become the biggest after its OW? And what was that film?