BadAtGender
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Posts posted by BadAtGender
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Should have mentioned it yesterday, but I was busy. I do have an update on CM's trend in my simple stupid box office projector.
It had another week with a drop around 40%. This is actually shows good staying power. If it continues on that trend, it'll finish with around 403m. Ahead of Revenge of the Fallen, but behind Spider-Man.
35% drops would get it into the THG/CACW/IM3 area.
It needs better than 33% drops to get to WW.
The effect of Endgame is a wild-card. What's likely to happen is that it will arrest the normal drops for one week, and then it'll go back to its trend. How much they are arrested remains to be seen, but if the Endgame week is about flat from the previous week, it would add about 5-6m to the total. Which would basically mean that even with otherwise 40% drops, it'll get in the vicinity of THG/CACW/IM3.
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43 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Pikachu though right after. How much that impacts I have no idea. Crazy range for DOM. Some are saying 250 DOM, others are being crazy and suggesting 750 DOM.
As others have noted, Pikachu is from the same studio, so it's less likely to harm Shazam!
WB might not be as into the dual feature sharing as Disney is, but it's possible here.
Pikachu is more likely to have a detrimental effect on Endgame. And Dumbo. Perhaps especially Dumbo.
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11 hours ago, cdsacken said:
It will start affecting by Wednesday the 24th, 21 days into release. Usually the best legs are the late ones. I suspect they will be atrocious for the entire next month following.
That doesn't usually happen. When a big film with the same market opens, there tends to be a one-time drop, after which the legs stabilize on a normal pattern.
Shazam! will probably drop 50-60% when Endgame opens (but most things, sans CM, will probably do that), but subsequent drops will be comparable to what happens in weekend 3.
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The "Endgame is deffo getting the OW record" talk reminds me of the run up to CACW, which everyone had pegged as opening at least to 220m, if not in contention with TFA. In the summer game a ton of people boosted their predictions.
At the level of a hyper big opening, there are so few data points and probably a lot more noise than we realize that it's pretty ludicrous to call things definite.
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4 minutes ago, Matthew said:
I think
Captain Marvel will earn 10M in 26-28April weekend. Just my prediction.
Yeah, that doesn't seem likely. BP didn't even have that and it earned 17m at the comparable weekend before IW. And even with some really great drops, it was under 7m.
Even giving CM 12m this weekend and really good 30% drops for the next three weekends, and a 10% drop when Endgame releases, it's still under 4m.
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4 minutes ago, Matthew said:
I mean deadline is acting like Shazam is over performing. If I am right it is rightly on the projection they gave last weekend. (52M)
I am very happy for Shazam but why this unnecessary dig.
Most of the OS is completely DOA.
Even Brazil is performing below expectations.
Deadline has some hilariously over the top biases. Even though Nikki Finke hasn't been part of it for years.
For instance, pretty much all coverage of the WGA/ATA negotiations is heavily slanted towards the agencies. For instance :
And at least as far as CBMs, they tend to lean MCU. And they like to push contentious match-ups, because it drives anger clicks.
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1 minute ago, Mulder said:
Man that Dumbo drop is awful. A family/kids-centric movie dropping that hard? Eesh.
What if Disney has to pick one film to get the Endgame double feature bounce. Either Dumbo (to get to 100m) or CM (to get to 400m). Which should they choose?
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51 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:
Regression to the mean is a powerful dynamic to overcome. Not, like, impossible -- but tough.
I don't think it works like that.
Let's look at various superhero characters who have had the same director for multiple films, and then look at their first two films for that character.
Richard Donner (Superman 1&2)
Tim Burton (Batman 1&2)
Joel Schumacher (Batman 3&4)
Bryan Singer (X-Men 1&2)
Sam Raimi (Spider-Man 1&2)
Guillermo Del Tor (Hellboy 1&2)
Christopher Nolan (TDK 1&2)
Brad Bird (Incredibles 1&2)Tim Story (Fantastic Four 1&2)
Jon Favreau (Iron-Man 1&2)
Joss Whedon (Avengers 1&2)
Marc Webb (TASM 1&2)
Zack Snyder (MoS&BvS)
James Mangold (Wolverine 2&3)
The Russos (Captain America 2&3)
James Gunn (GotG 1&2)
Peyton Reed (Ant-Man 1&2)
Those are all the ones I could find. If you can think of others, mention them.
Anyway, I've bolded the ones that have a better RT% in the second film noted.
In all, 9 saw an increase in the RT%, while 8 saw a decrease. About 50/50. Beyond that, many of them were remarkably consistent, with the rating often within a few % points (whether higher or lower). Essentially, directors will often keep doing their work at pretty much the same level, it seems.
And then look at Favs, Joss, Webb, and Snyder. (And arguably Gunn, too.) They all, in their second films, were tasked with setting up an expansion to the scope of the franchise. This task happened largely at the detriment of the films themselves.
Those directors who apparently had greater control in what they did in film two seem like they'd see an increase more often than not.
Jenkins clearly has more clout and is thus able to do pretty much what she wants, here. She probably doesn't have to set up anything in future films, either, since DC seems to have abandoned that.
Even if there is a drop in RT%, it's probably going to be pretty minor, and even then could be just statistical noise because of some random factors (who reviews the film, how they're feeling that day, etc.) Even then, it's not likely to affect the reception of the film to a large degree.
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14 minutes ago, Tom Swelling said:
Wonder Woman made over 400 million domestic and has a 93% certified fresh score on rotten tomatoes. I mean, there's no way in hell WW84 beats either of those measurements. It will make over a billion worldwide because of overseas markets. I can see it growing worldwide although I suspect much more mixed reviews.
Why would it get more mixed reviews? Do you think Patty Jenkins doesn't know what she's doing now that she effectively has full control?
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47 minutes ago, Valonqar said:
I wouldn't call WW's 400M OS poor by any stretch. it;s just that ratio skewing dom is a bit troublesome for the future unless it's period piece problem that moving to more modern times can rectify. Some countries may simply not care about WWI but go for the 80s setting.
Just like the ratio skew for Iron Man 1 & 2 was troublesome for the future?
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Looking at my simple, stupid box office predictor, CM's over/under on catching WW is in keeping its weekly falls to about 35%. More than that and it probably misses.
42% drops get it to 400m.
37% would be needed to beat the THG/CACW/IM3 trifecta.
400m isn't definite, but likely. I'd say it stands a not bad chance of getting into the mix with the triplets. It needs better holds to get to WW's.
In its favor, the weekly drops are trending better. It held just under 40% this past week.
Yes, this is all despite staying a good amount ahead of THG. To reiterate, the late legs for that were insanely good: weeks 5 and 6 were under 30%. Weeks 8, 10, 13, and 17 were all under 20%! And except for when Avengers opened, every weekly drop until 22 is under 40%.
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Oh, man. The Marvel Family reveal was so great. It's the sort of thing that many films would just do as a post credits tease. I loved how this was all, nope, that's our third act.
Also the supervillain speech bit had me almost fall out of my chair. Except it was a recliner, so I was saved from that.
Just, really amazingly good.
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That was a damn good movie.
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24 minutes ago, Telemachos said:
It's got Christopher Yost as the showrunner with Javier Grillo-Marxuach and Jeff Pinkner and a ton of other talented writers involved. It should be dang good.
Depends on who does the music.
There is only one correct choice.
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4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
Oh my gosh you actually like the first better? I've never talked to anyone who liked it more. You're right, imo of course.
Winter Soldier is a poor film that has some really good scenes.
Which basically describes every Russo film.
Initial films in the MCU tend to be better than sequels as well, whether for characters or directors.
(the only exception I can think of for either is Ant-Man)
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9 hours ago, cdsacken said:
Yep I'd love to see a different director entirely but good luck with that considering massive success. Sequel will be great. Winter Solider was sooooo much better than CA1. That's what made me so impressed with Aquaman. Justice League sucked and for it's first film I thought it was really good with a great set up for the next film.
I mean, it wasn't, but okay.
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Back at the beginning of February, I'd have found it impossible that Lego 2 and Alita would finish about 20m apart... and that Lego wouldn't get to 110m. But here we are.
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1 minute ago, AndyK said:
WW was a true 4 Quadrant movie, people were taking their grandparents to see it. But it's OS performance was stunted by it being overly feminine and more character driven for sure.
I think it's OS gross was more stunted by being relatively early in the franchise so there's a lack of familiarity. Early MCU films also had pretty low OS grosses. See if the sequel also has a relatively low OS gross. I kinda doubt it will.
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42 minutes ago, Emerald kikyou said:
Yet Wonder Woman’s audience skewed more female than male while CM skewed more male than female.I have personally seen as much females not liking or feeling meh about CM as males. Also I have seen males say they really enjoyed and liked CM just like I’ve seen women say that.
I think I noted in the CM OW thread that the percentage difference may have come down to how many men saw CM. WW had a bigger skew, but when you account for the OW difference, the number of women is probably about the same.
And to contrast with what many others are saying, I have many women friends who enjoyed it greatly. It's well beyond meh.
(and the Emerald City Comic Con crowd would support that women are very invested in it.)
Personally I still like WW more, but CM is a top 5 MCU film for me.
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9 10 Alita: Battle Angel Fox $142,083 -58% -34% 1,439 $99 $83,956,461 40 - - Green Book Uni. $70,625 -57% -48% 841 $84 $83,956,251 130 And Alita squeaks ahead!
(There's no real reason to compare them other than they've been close in gross for the past several weeks.)
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7 minutes ago, cdsacken said:
More so massive drops next week. My mistake I was getting the weeks mixed up. US will probably hold really well this week but will get crushed next week with Shazam and Pet Sematary coming out with both super strong reviews. Assuming Dumbo should be a massive flop. Kinda hope US holds #1 two weeks in a row.
I doubt Shazam will have a big effect on Us. They're pretty far apart for demographics. Pet Sematary might have an effect, but strong reviews aren't going to give it a huge boost. It might do closer to 40m rather than 30m, but that's about it. Us could still pull 20m that weekend.
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44 minutes ago, Steele131 said:
How many reviews until it’s certified fresh? 75? Should get it right away then
39 minutes ago, nevermore said:80
So even if the next 11 reviews are rotten, it'll still be certified, right?
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Hey, it's Alice in Wonderland all over again, but without the 3D benefit that Avatar gave basically everything in 2010.
New Weekend Thread..Shazam 6.3 Little 5.3 Hell 4.9...NO FLAME WARS PLEASE!
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I'm looking at weekly drops, not weekend.
Weekly drops for it:
Weekend drops for it:
While they are close, they are not the same, and looking just at weekend tends to obscure about 1/4-1/3 of its total pull. For instance, in this past week, the weekdays were relatively weaker than they had been earlier on. That's probably due to spring break being done, so it could level out, but that still probably means 40%-ish drops, which will probably remain the case until Endgame opens.
April 12-18 - 10m (387)
April 19-24 - 6m (393)
April 25-31 - 6m (399)
May 1-7 - 4m (403)
May 8-14 - 2m (405)
And then a long tail for another 2-3m to get it to 407-408. It's entirely possible, of course, that Endgame is just a small bump and it sees a bigger drop in the following week when all those double features stop.