BadAtGender

March 26, 2019

I don't get the hate for this.

March 23, 2019

8 hours ago, frozenheart1993 said:

I think the 600M DOM is too optimistic.

It is hard to say other countries, only China. Frozen 2 has far more previews than any previous animated film. The official channel of Weibo reached 5.6m, which is more than twice that of any animation announcement (toy story 4 Official trailer only has 0.56M)

So I think the heat in the US and Europe is far less than Incredibles 2. I personally think that F2's WW can be 1.2B and it is very lucky.

And OLAF's Japanese dubbing was caught because of drug abuse, F1's Blu-ray is not available in Japan, and it is a really bad influence on the sequel.

I kinda doubt it's going to drop WW from the first.

2 hours ago, frozenheart1993 said:

Frozen is much more popular than expected in China, where many of the characters at Shanghai Disneyland are unfamiliar to visitors, but few people don't know ANNA ELSA.
Although the first one only got 48 million yuan in China, it was released during the Chinese New Year, when several Chinese films were released at the same time
Last year's Ralph Breaks the Internet and Incredibles2 made 39M and 51M respectively in China. They both took 20% to 30% of the seats on the first weekend, while Frozen only took 10% in 2014.

This is why. Any shortfall it might have elsewhere is going to be made up in the in increase in China (where it did have strong legs) and dom.

March 23, 2019

7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Is Passion of the Christ original?

Maybe? Which is why I put Avatar there, too.

7 hours ago, Krissykins said:

Day After Tomorrow is loosely based on a book too.

Which book?

March 23, 2019

50 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Doesn't have summer days though. I think $600m is possible, but I wouldn't bank on it if I were a betting man.

I don't think summer weekdays are a strict necessity, considering it has the whole holiday season to play.

March 23, 2019

The record OW for an original film is SLoP's 104m, followed by Inside Out's 90m.

For live action, it's either The Passion of the Christ (83m) or Avatar (77m), followed by The Day After Tomorrow (68m).

Us is in really good territory.

March 22, 2019

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

CM will be between $10M-$15M better than Hunger Games at the same point...and Hunger Games made $408M.

Going against CM is the enormous competition coming out the next 3 weekends (including this one), especially since one of those is also a super, BUT

1. The Hunger Games 3rd weekend was Easter weekend, so it already had weekly day bumps prior to weekend 3...Easter is not til April 21 this year, so if CM can hold theaters, it will get 2 weeks of more nice weekdays.

2. Some of the competition are Disney films - dual showings and such always give the old Disney film a nice bump...and Endgame is certain to give it an enormous % one.

3. Disney is gonna push it if it's close...and they have so many avenues to do so. This weekend makes it more likely it's falling towards the "push" to $400M vs the "sail" to $400M, but I definitely don't think it takes $400M off the table yet. It will take a poor week of holds and a poor weekend hold next weekend (thus making it vulnerable to drops when Shazam opens) before I start worrying about $400M.

1. See earlier post about THG, but basically it's probably not realistic to expect the late legs that film got here. They were absurdly good.

2. While the double feature bump is real, it's not particularly huge in real dollar terms. At best, it can get a few million more. Put it this way: if CM has a 1m weekend prior to Endgame and then gets a 100% boost, it'll earn 2m the Endgame weekend. And then probably fall well over 50% the following weekend.

3. The realm of a realistic push is much smaller than people tend to realize. At best, a company can push for an extra couple million, but not much more. If CM is looking to end with around 395m, that's probably too much for Disney to make the effort to get it to 400m. The cost of such an effort isn't worth the marginal value of the number in most cases.

Finally, pointing out that something is unlikely doesn't mean that it's "off the table" it just means... that it's unlikely.

March 22, 2019

27 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i wouldnt judge base on only one weekend (who can be higher than that) i mean it will need only a 2.6 multi to hit 400 dom as of now i have see nothing to suggest that this wont have 2.6 multi its not very clever or right to judge a multi of a movie based on a weekend and ingnroring the good legs (better than guardians 2) so far ,i will agree with you if i see the movie drop badly also remember what they were saying about homecoming or antman 2 it will never hit 200 dom or 300 dom yet here we are no i amnot saying that it will pull that kind of legs but we have see how it turns outs when we are quick to judge a movie perfomance is more than just a weekend again i am talking as of now

I'm not doing this based on a single weekend. I'm looking at comparable movies, all of which were either ahead of CM at the comparable time, were holding up better, or both. And then I'm looking at what sort of weekly trends it would need to get to certain levels.

I mean... this is a movie box office website. Analysis of the numbers is What We Do. You can't just say "well, we don't know" because sometime we're (collectively) wrong. That would obviate the entire point of these forums.

This isn't a judgement of CM's performance, which is all around fantastic. It's just a look at the question "will it get to 400m" and it looks like... "maybe, but probably not", is the answer. The early projection for the weekend just means that getting there is more difficult.

March 22, 2019

8 minutes ago, john2000 said:

i am a simple man so i will use simple words we have no idea right now there you go but i had to bet i would say yes still we dont know there you go :d

tl;dr version: 400m is possible, but increasingly unlikely, barring some very, very good later legs.

March 22, 2019

1 hour ago, TMP said:

53% drop for Captain Marvel for $31.7M. Over/under $400m dom?

That's under the 3rd weekends of both IM3 and CACW, which set them at 337 and 347 respectively. They both had holidays in their fourth weekends, too, and were at 372 and 377m after day 25 (Memorial day). (CACW had notably worse legs.)

32.5m would put CM at 319m, which is pretty far behind either of those, and might put 400m in doubt.

OTOH, it would still be sitting midway between THG and Catching Fire (heavily differing calendar than CF, which dropped heavily in third (post-thanksgiving) and fourth (early december doldrums) weekends, before hitting the holiday stride) but it's behind THG in weekend pulls, and it's probably not going to have the amazing holding power that THG had. From weekends 4-22, the only weekend it had a drop bigger than 40% was when Avengers opened, and even that was below 50%.

Looking at my simple, stupid box office projector (which takes weekly grosses and applies a flat drop percentage), it looks like CM will need to hold to about 44% drops from here on out to get to 400m. 42% drops to beat the IM3/CACW/THG trifecta, and 41% to get past WW. 39% drops would be needed to catch Fire.

46% drops would be enough to pass GOTG2.

I'll update the projector next week to see how things shape out then. I'd guess that it will need even better holds across the board, though.

March 21, 2019

On 3/17/2019 at 2:07 PM, expensiveho said:

Total reboot would mean no Harley. Honestly that's just dumb.

If it's a scheduling problem for Margot (doing Harley movies back to back) then why fast track it?

Unless by total reboot they mean get rid of everything that didn't work before (basically everything except WW, Aquaman and Harley)

It probably means that there's no requirement to keep it in continuity with the first film, which is pretty much what all the DC films are getting. Aquaman had the barest nod to JL, and I expect future films to do the same.

Basically, Gunn gets whatever toys he wants to play with, however he wants to play with them.

March 20, 2019

20 hours ago, George Parr said:

That's a bit misleading though, isn't it?

China throws a big wrench into such a comparison.

TFA joined Titanic and Avatar as the only movies to top 1b internationally without China. Nothing came close to that mark until Infinity War hit 1b as well. The closest movie would be the last Harry Potter, which stands at right about 900m. Only Frozen at about 825m and The Avengers at about 810m even managed to cross 800m internationally minus China.

The emergence of China has a second massiv market next to the domestic one has made quite a few big worldwide hits look bigger internationally than they actually were in most of the world. At this stage it probably makes more sense to split the worldwide intake into three categories: domestic, China, and the remaining international markets. Else you run into a situation where you judge the entire international behaviour just on one market. E.g. The Fate of the Furious looks much bigger than The Last Jedi internationally (1.01b to 712m, it's not really close), suggesting that it was just so much bigger everywhere outside the domestic market. But if you remove China, TLJ was actually bigger in the rest of the world, 670m to 617m or so. China is just too massive a market to properly use the international intake as a whole in a comparison for the general behaviour in the international markets. A large intake in China can make a movie look much bigger internationally, just like a small one can make a movie look smaller compared to one that is pretty similar basically all over the world. That's only fair when judging the worldwide intake, but it can be misleading when one tries to judge the "average" international performance of a movie.

To put it another way, the business TFA did DOM was outsized relative to its OS gross. It did very well (although I think it was weighted more heavily by Europe and Australia), but the OS/DOM ratio was quite low.

And there's an open question about how much cultural impact can be attributed to it and how much can be attributed to Star Wars being baked into popular culture for four decades. TFA leaned heavily into nostalgia for the OT.

5 hours ago, Barnack said:

North america, I think Awaken had a good edge above everything else, in how long (before and after release), how big the conversation and the media size was, the amount of product placement got ridiculous.

Outside going by box office it is really hard to judge the event nature outside your market.

Movie annual box office share:

Year Title WW box office Movie BO Share

2009 Avatar 29.4 2.7772 9.45%

2010 Toy Story 3 31.6 1.067 3.38%

2011 Potter 32.6 1.3415 4.12%

2012 Avengers 34.7 1.5188 4.38%

2013 Frozen 35.9 1.2765 3.56%

2014 Transformer 36.4 1.1041 3.03%

2015 Force Awaken 38.4 2.0682 5.39%

2016 Civil War 38.8 1.1533 2.97%

2017 Last Jedi 40.6 1.3325 3.28%

2018 Infinity War 41.7 2.0484 4.91%

This is... not a great comparison. The late year releases (Avatar, Frozen, TFA, TLJ) all made significant business in the following year. Avatar was pretty easily the biggest movie WW (and DOM) in 2010, for instance.

And I think we were tracking TFA's WW gross compared to JW, and it ended up just short before the new year.

IAC, I'd rank the top 5 as

1. Avengers

2. Frozen

3. Furious 7

4. Jurassic World

5. Harry Potter 8

March 19, 2019

2 hours ago, cdsacken said:

Personally if it misses by a bit on DOM yet shatters it by 300 million worldwide I'm not sure it matters. I liked Wonder Woman more, they failed on promoting that movie globally. It absolutely should have done 1+ billion.

Marketing isn't a single movie enterprise. It's building on what came before. CM has had a decade and ~20 films of pretty positive reception. WW had four years and three films, which were not generally positively received. It's not an apples to apples comparison.

The first five MCU films also had pretty anemic OS grosses. It wasn't until film 6 that they got rolling OS.

Oh, look. Aquaman was the 6th dceu film. What a coincidence*

*yes, it definitely is a coincidence.

March 19, 2019

11 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

If it was about gross numbers, I would have simply looked for gross.

By event, I mean accounting for hype, pre-release buzz, then of-course numbers as well. Don't think Avatar had the former par the others.

What about movies that became a phenomenon that was outsized compared to their hype and pre-release buzz?

Because as huge as IW is and Endgame will be, they've also had the benefit of 10 years of marketing to boost them. They're huge, but they're known huges. HP8 had the same thing. It was a series with exceptionally strong overseas grosses, and while it did step it up to another level, it was built on what came before.

TFA was strong WW, but it wasn't huge like it did DOM, so I think that cuts it out.

I think there are three or four contenders.

1. The Avengers. It had a few films to build it up, but the international gross for the MCU was not exceptionally strong. Iron Man 2 had the biggest OS gross and that was only 311m. (Thor came in second.) If the MCU was anything like a normal franchise, we'd probably have expected, what 400m DOM and 500m OS? But instead, it was an absolute monster worldwide, basically taking everyone by surprise. It's arguably the film that actually made superheroes a thing that could be sold overseas.

2. Jurassic World. No, don't laugh. While JP1 was a monster in its day (probably the #2 WW phenomenon of the 90s), the sequels were... not, and 20 years down the line there was no reason to think that we'd be in for anything other than a pretty good result. But instead, we had a huge surprise. After AOU failed to get the OW record, and only bested Avengers OS because of huge growth in China), few people expected JW to even think of being in the same realm. It ended up shy of Furious 7 OS, but because of the difference in (again) China. It was a surprise that well outsized expectations.

3. Furious 7. While the series was on a rise, starting with the reunion 4th film, it more than doubled the OS gross of FF6. A good portion of that was because of the explosion of China business, but not all. And unlike all previous films from Hollywood that benefited from huge Chinese business, this was one that didn't do anything to specifically appeal to Chinese audiences. (Unlike, say, TF4.) And it did even better.

4. Frozen. While this is marginally smaller than the others, it, again, did WW business that well exceeded its expectations in pretty much every territory. And the cultural effect of it is hard to dismiss. None of the other films have a billion view YouTube video. And it's also a merchandising juggernaut that few films can claim. Frozen is so big, that Disney didn't even put Anna and Elsa into their Princess line. It's too valuable, so it's separate. It did business in soundtracks and video like it was released a decade or two earlier, and did business in Japan like it was a Miyazaki film. And it was also a film that pushed WDAS to the forefront of the industry again, rather than the weaker, older cousin of Pixar (and probably behind Illumination, too, considering how big the Despicable Me films were in the early parts of the decade.) And we're probably not going to see Frozen 2 be the #1 movie of the year either DOM, OS, or WW... but, it's not out of the question. Six years on, and we're still seeing how powerful it is.

So, of the ones you listed, Avengers. But I could see the other three having really strong arguments as well.

March 19, 2019

34 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

I think it will. I have CM around $415-420.

I think it'll be close. The two MCU films closest to WW were IM3 and CACW. Both had bigger openings and second weekends than CM (though the gap narrowed). IM3 fell 58% and 51% 2nd and 3rd weekend. CACW fell 60% and 55%. While CM is likely to have stronger holds for weekend 3 than either of those, it's probably going to be close in terms of actual dollars, and it's 20-30m behind them. They also had a holiday in weekend 4, which CM won't have. Non-summer weekdays are pretty similar, though.

After 25 days, (through Memorial Day) they were sitting at 377.5 (CACW) and 372.8 (IM3). CACW earned another 30.5m, IM3 another 36m. The better holds with CM will help late legs, but it'll need to close that gap as well, especially because it'll need another 4m or so to match WW. If it gets to upper 360s, it's probably got a shot, because Endgame gives it a boost. 410-415m? Sure.

(If it gets within spitting distance, (1-2m) will Disney care enough to push it over? is probably the key question.)

March 19, 2019

8 hours ago, Rthmar-vell said:

Top playdates 18-Mar

10-AMC Alderwood, Lynwood WA

Nice to see some Northwest representation.

March 14, 2019

On 3/12/2019 at 3:28 PM, LordNox said:

It broke out in the way that it did well, but not huge numbers by any means.

IM1 made more dom than IM2.

March 11, 2019

Oh, we're ranking?

Thor

Black Panther

Thor: Ragnarok

Captain Marvel

Spider-Man: Homecoming

Captain America: The First Avenger

Iron Man 3

Iron Man

Thor: The Dark World

Everything after that is mostly the same. Enjoyable, but nothing stands out.

Basically, the early, establishment films were good, and they've had a recent strong streak of introduction films. There's a few other standouts, too.

March 10, 2019

I started thinking about the plot of IW and then remembered how bad it was.

March 10, 2019

31 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Why are they rereleasing Alien Resurrection?

That was my thought as well.

March 9, 2019

14 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Think it's gonna be close DOM between Captain Marvel and Wonder Woman

If it gets 160, it'll need about a 2.6 multi to beat WW. If it's closer to 150, then that means about 2.75. Neither is impossible, but I think the only MCU films to do that with an opening above 100 are BP and Avengers... And homecoming? Ragnarok and IM2 were closer to 2.5.

Since the response seems to be positive, but not "this is revolutionary" like BP, I kinda doubt it's going to have the same repeat business.

With all that said, the gender discrepancy with WW might be that more guys are going to see it than anything else. 38% of 150m is about 57m of business from women. WW had 53-54m from women? Pretty close and possibly about equal accounting for inflation. But for dudes, that would be a 93m to 50m difference.

(my math might be off here, apologies if I forgot some of the correct numbers)

March 9, 2019

Movie was a lot of fun. Upper tier MCU IMO. Seeing more CM makes me excited for Endgame, even if little else does.

March 2, 2019

3 minutes ago, aabattery said:

I figured.

I can't find what your other one is though

Actually, upon rechecking it, It looks like I was wrong.

I had it as Revenge of the Sith, which after its OW (4 days, so asterisk away) was ahead of Robots. But I missed Hitch, which wasn't being tracked at that point.

So, as best I can tell, Alice in Wonderland is the current victor. Captain Marvel will happily take that crown.

March 2, 2019

28 minutes ago, aabattery said:

I'm clearly not answering the right question anymore but from what I can see, the highest grossing film of the calendar year (i.e including holdovers from the prior year) has never come from a single opening weekend as late as March. Extremely niche record but hey.

This is assuming Captain Marvel passes Aquaman's current 2019 calendar gross (which is ~134m as of today) in it's opening weekend, which isn't necessarily guaranteed. Really puts into perspective how absolutely shite the box office has been for the last couple of months.

Holdovers don't count.

March 2, 2019

Just now, Premium George said:

Avengers missed lorax by just a million.

The Hunger Games was at 380m at that point, though.

Alice in Wonderland is one of the correct answers for films that did it later than February.

There is, however, one other film that I'm looking for.

March 2, 2019

1 minute ago, Premium George said:

I thought Jumanji would be 2017 release.

BP definitely did it, but it's not the answer.

Year	Title	WW box office	Movie BO	Share
2009	Avatar	29.4	2.7772	9.45%
2010	Toy Story 3	31.6	1.067	3.38%
2011	Potter	32.6	1.3415	4.12%
2012	Avengers	34.7	1.5188	4.38%
2013	Frozen	35.9	1.2765	3.56%
2014	Transformer	36.4	1.1041	3.03%
2015	Force Awaken	38.4	2.0682	5.39%
2016	Civil War	38.8	1.1533	2.97%
2017	Last Jedi	40.6	1.3325	3.28%
2018	Infinity War	41.7	2.0484	4.91%

Sign In

Profiles

Forums

Events

Blogs

Gallery

Annual Subscriptions

Media Demo

Posts posted by BadAtGender

Important Information