BadAtGender
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Posts posted by BadAtGender
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On 7/8/2018 at 11:43 AM, That One Guy said:
no posts for over a month. bump so this thread can stay relevant.
Don't do that. Bumping a thread for the sake of bumping it does nothing.
If you have something to add to the conversation, just say it. If you don't, and just bump, you're broadcasting that you have nothing to say, ergo the thread is not, at this time, relevant.
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Fun film, with a lot of really enjoyable scenes. But it never really rises above the enjoyableness of those scenes, leading to a disjointed feeling of odd pacing. It almost felt like it was running on autopilot. Here's a joke, here's a reference, here's some action, and a dollop of pathos. Okay, we're good.
While the MCU as a whole has a sort of TV series feeling at this point, this might be the most mid-season filler episode movie of them all. It's got all the technical polish of the series, but there's never really any hook. Still, it's probably on par with IW in terms of being a fun time at the movies. And in much the same way, A&W will probably fade from memory about the same, too.
It's a movie that happened, and it was fun, but that's about it.
I laughed harder at the fade in the mid-credits scene than anything else in the film.
3/5
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So, I haven't done this in a while, but since it looks like I2 is heading for some historic heights, I wanted to plug it into the simple stupid box office projector.
For the uninitiated, this is a very basic spreadsheet I've set up that simply takes the latest weekly gross of the film and applies static drops for the next sixteen weeks to arrive at a total. This isn't assuming that any film will perform with exactly the same drops week after week, but rather to indicate what sort of performance the film would require to get to certain targets. Also, weekly grosses tend to even out the influence of holidays and the like.
So, without further ado...
In week three, Pixar's latest held steady at the second position, behind the Jurassic World sequel. It pulled in 81.18m, to push its tally to 475.36m. This was a drop of just 35%, which might mean we're going to see some good staying power for the next few weeks.
The week pushed it past the (rer-elease boosted) total of Star Wars: Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, and has it sitting about 11m shy of Finding Dory, which means that sometime on Saturday, Incredibles 2 will become the highest grossing animated film of all time.
But what if we wanted to see it become the highest grossing animated film... adjusted for inflation? Well, in order to do that, it would have to best the multiple re-releases of Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs, which is sitting at 998.44m. So for I2 to get there, it would need to likely become the first billion dollar film and the highest grossing movie of all time. If it starts falling at 12% per week, it'll take about 18 weeks to get there. 13% and it's a bit longer, but still looks likely. (I'm guessing since, as above, my projections stop at 16 weeks.) 14% is likely a bit short. So, 13% is what's needed.
This is... not likely, to be fair. So, how about the #2 spot, held by 101 Dalmatians? That's only 915.24m, which would need 15% drops. Maybe 16%, but likely a little higher. Still not likely. Sorry, folks.
The #3 animated film is the first modern entry, the legendary Lion King, which, with a couple of re-releases, has an adjusted tally of $816.58m. To get to that auspicious height, Incredibles 2 will need 19% drops. That's still in the realm of really unlikely, but we're getting close to the sort of things that can be believed.
To claim the title of "biggest movie of 2018", it will need to edge past the just-barely-under-700m-seriously-what-the-hell-Disney-you-couldn't-push-it-that-final-200k total of Black Panther. And that, my friends, needs 26% drops. I wouldn't call that likely, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely, either, especially if it has a strong week 4. These drops would also just beat The Avengers to claim the title of "biggest superhero movie of all time, adjusted for inflation."
Snatching the summer 2018 crown from Infinity War is only slightly easier, at about 28% drops.
Let's move down to 650.83m, because that's the adjusted total of Shrek 2, and is notable not only because it happened within the past 15 years (it was released just a few months before the first Incredibles), but also because it never had a re-release to pad its total. If I2 gets past it in a single run, then that's a good claim to fame. To do that, it needs 31% drops. Which is edging closer to that 35% it held in week three.
If it holds steady with 35% drops, it will finish with about 626m.
The 600m mark needs just 39% drops. And it can drop 52% for every week from here on out and it still gets to 550m.
In order to miss cracking the top 10 unadjusted list, it will need to see 59% or bigger drops every week. So I think we can say it's likely that Rogue One will be getting bumped to #11.
Looking forward, the landscape is pretty good for it. This week sees Ant Man & The Wasp, which crosses over superhero-wise. And next week is Hotel Transylvania 3, which hits the animated side of things. However, in the latter case, it might play a bit younger than I2, so it may be able to weather that storm pretty well. The latter half of the summer sees a lot of action films, which will mostly play to older audiences and probably cannibalize each-other to a degree.
Outside of A&W and HT3, the biggest direct competition is probably Teen Titans Go to the Movies, which is both animated and superhero, but is also a TV adaptation, which tends to play pretty softly overall. Only nine such films have even grossed $50m total. TTGTTM does have some strong marketing, but it's still not likely to break out big.
600m looks likely. I'll update again next week, probably.
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The biggest laugh for me was probably the mid-credits scene.
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3 hours ago, AndyK said:
He's like 2 years old in 1984.
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2 hours ago, Belle said:
So Incredibles is likely getting 600M domestic right? It needs a 3.28x and given the reviews and word of mouth plus summer weekdays chances seem very high.
Seems likely, but not guaranteed.
It has an outside shot of beating Shrek 2's 650m adjusted total to be the biggest computer animated film of all time.
I'm really curious how it's going to play OS. The first wasn't super strong, but superhero films in general didn't have good OS grosses back then. That's generally changed but it's mostly because of character familiarity, which this doesn't have going for it. Pixar also doesn't have as strong an OS brand as, say, Illumination, relative to their DOM grosses. So we could see a situation where the OS gross is quite a bit below the DOM gross.
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43 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:
Will the numbers go up with actuals for Incredibles 2?
They could, but Disney was already pretty bullish on the drop. I expected them to estimate it at 175, actually.
To go much higher, it'd have to play more like a live action superhero movie than an animated movie for Father's day. So we'll have to see which way it leans closer to.
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That was incredible.
5/5.
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I enjoyed O8 quite a bit. It might be my favorite of the franchise. It's been a long time since I saw the original, but I remember walking out of that one really bugged by a plot hole. The second was forgettable and I never saw the third. But this one's a fun ride throughout, it just oozes charisma, and there were no holes to bug me.
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2 hours ago, ban1o said:
I'm actually curious how they would do the Hamilton movie. I wonder if casting POC in the lead roles would translate as well to film
Why wouldn't it?
What would be harder, probably, is translating the depth of the stage direction to film. There's a wonderful thing that the woman who "holds" the bullet in the duel is always facing Hamilton in previous scenes, giving a subtle, visual cue of what is to come. It's the sort of thing that works perfectly for stage, but not so much on screen. (See also things that can work in prose, or in a comic, but not in cinema, or vice versa. Each medium has its own quirks and some things suffer from trying to shift from one to the other.)
Anyway, mostly excited for ItH, although Chu's track record is... rocky. (We'll see how Crazy Rich Asians performs, I suppose.)
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It's interesting that they don't seem to be just dropping the character models from Frozen, Tangles, and Moana, but are instead doing the characters more in line with WiR's designs. That's a nice touch, and it does explain why the others show up the way they do.
I could see that as an attempt to make it seem like they're characters from a game (or games) based on the movies instead of the characters in those movies. I dig it.
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9 hours ago, baumer said:
What does fridging mean? You're the second person to use that term. I've never heard of it.
Never mind, just found it.....weird I've never heard this term before now.
Let's define some terms. "Fridging" (Short for "Women in Refrigerators") Refers to an act where the villain kills, maims, depowers, or rapes someone close to the hero in order to break the hero's spirit and attempt to make the hero chase him.
It's pretty comics specific, I think, and has only started to transfer over to greater movie discussion because of the increased prevalence of CBMs.
Fun fact, it was originally coined by Gail Simone, before she became a big name as a comics writer. (One of her early jobs was when she had a long run on Deadpool, in fact.) It's specifically a reference to an incident in Green Lantern. Kyle Rayner (GL at the time) came home to find that the supervillain Major Force had killed his girlfriend Alexandria DeWitt and stuffed her body in the refrigerator of their apartment:
What's interesting about the image is that it was originally done with the door opened wider, but was closed a bit in editing, so as not to be so gruesome. Ironically, this gave the impression that DeWitt had been hacked into pieces by Major Force instead of just sort of stuffed in there whole.
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About my only nitpick of the film is that Negasonic and Yukio didn't have more screentime. They both looked great, oozed personality and chemistry, but they played supporting roles in just a few scenes.
(The fridging was almost a nitpick, but I think they played it well, first by lampshading it in the opening credits, then by having it be a focus, character-wise for Vanessa, and finally by retconning it out in the mid-credits scene. Though I suppose it would have been nice if Vanessa took up the Copycat mantle. Oh, well, maybe in X-Force.)
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This looks pretty interesting. I tend to prefer at least slightly idiosyncratic takes on properties, though.
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Man, that was a lot of fun. It's not deep or anything, but in a pretty breezy hour and a half, Gabrielle Union goes medieval on some dudes, and that's enough for an entertaining evening in my book.
Besides Union, I recognize literally no one from the cast.
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Well, that was fucking great.
5/5
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1 hour ago, Thanos Legion said:
1st
2nd
4th
I hope next weekend doesn’t come in at 8th best or we’ll have solidified a very worrying trend.
If it gets the 8th biggest 4th weekend, that would be between 28.1m and 28.5m, edging out Jumanji 2, but ending up just shy of Spider-Man. That's some good company.
If it gets the 16th biggest 5th weekend, it will have to best WW, but fall short of TDK, slotting in between 15.7 and 16.3m. Again, good company.
32nd biggest 6th weekend is an extremely narrow margin, between MBFGW and Shrek, which are separated by just $33k, so that's some uber-legginess from the early 2000s. It would be a weekend right around 10.4m
Getting the 64th biggest 7th weekend is hitting a 10k separation target between Batman (1989) and The Martian. Just over 6.7m for the trouble.
And the 128th biggest 8th weekend is about 3.75m, right between Steel Magnolias and Mockingjay 1.
So, taking the averages it would look like
28.3
16
10.4
6.707
3.75
Combined 65m. If we add in 60m for this weekend, that'll be 125m more, without even considering weekdays. Which would mean that at the 2 month mark, it would be a 610m. With the weekdays, that probably means a final total somewhere between 650 and 700m. That's a stunningly good result for any movie, in any franchise.
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I wanted to get this done after I saw IW, but I had to go to bed.
I may still drop in for a weekly question from time to time
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6 minutes ago, aabattery said:
So, 87m OD dom confirmed?
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Juman3: Welcome 2 the Jungle
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I like the look of it. It looks goofy, but in a really fun way. I loved Hardy's delivery of "Why would we do that?"
I suppose it's a bit of a question about whether the response to the initial teaser has effectively poisoned the chances for this or not. For people who have clung to that, there's probably no reversing the course, but I'd bet that Sony hopes that there is a second chance for first impressions.
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6 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:
Haha, no I didn't, but I was just saying you could win without doing anything except the pre-seasons. Is that how you won that year?
Oh, lord, no. It was a close thing. I had a good preseason, but not the best
If @Chewyhad kept up with the weeklies he probably would have cruised to a win. He came in third all told, Iirc.
(I contend that my victory was largely due to not buying into the hype that everyone else did and putting huge numbers for Civil War. So as a piece of advice, keep that in mind when predicting IW)
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1 hour ago, Chewy said:
Please do it we need Tele to finish one spot lower
There's no guarantee I'll beat Tele. Just finish close to him.
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44 minutes ago, dudalb said:
Which is fine for a niche audience,but will be confusing to the G.A.
Of course I think that the DC streaming service is targeted specifically at the hardcore fans.so it's a moot point.
I think you're overstating how much the general audience cares whether a show or movie does or does not cross over with another.
Mission: Impossible - Fallout | July 27 2018 | Paramount | Reactions coming in | "Best action movie since Fury Road"
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
I couldn't find a quote from anyone saying it's better. Two people saying it's the best since, and one saying it's one of the best in the last ten years. Topic updated to be more accurate.