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Everything posted by BadAtGender
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Gods of Egypt | Feb 26, 2016 | IMAX release confirmed
BadAtGender replied to Neo's topic in Box Office Discussion
There may possibly be upwards of a billion people who are unhappy with the common depictions of Jesus as white. -
Gods of Egypt | Feb 26, 2016 | IMAX release confirmed
BadAtGender replied to Neo's topic in Box Office Discussion
That's not really important from a representation standpoint. It would at least mean some non-white dudes got a paycheck. -
Gods of Egypt | Feb 26, 2016 | IMAX release confirmed
BadAtGender replied to Neo's topic in Box Office Discussion
Yes. All other things being equal having racially appropriate actors would be an improvement, even if the movie sucks otherwise. -
Gods of Egypt | Feb 26, 2016 | IMAX release confirmed
BadAtGender replied to Neo's topic in Box Office Discussion
I could see Denzel as Washington. Provided he can sing. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hamilton_(musical)) As much as people say it isn't a big deal, it is a big deal if you change the race, specifically to white. Any time you change the race of a character (fictional or historical), you are making a statement. Often, as is the case of what Lin-Manuel Miranda did by casting POC for historically white people, that can be a positive statement. But generally if you're changing someone POC to white, your statement is "we were clueless and/or racist." Even if the general audience as a whole doesn't know or care about the change, it still matters. Much of what we take in and internalize about media is unconscious. Representation matters. -
Part 1: 1. Will The Good Dinosaur have a 3 day Weekend above $40M? YES 2. Will The Good Dinosaur have a 3 day Weekend above $50M? 3000 NO 3. Will The Good Dinosaur have a 3 day Weekend above $60M? NO 4. Will Creed and Frankenstein's combined OW be higher than Good Dinosaur's Combined Friday and Saturday? NO 5. Will Creed's OW be double that of Frankenstein's? If you mean "at least double" then yes. If you mean "exactly double" then no. 6. Will the top 3 New entries enter the charts at 1st, 3rd and 4th respectively? 2000 NO 7. Will The Danish Girl have a PTA above $20,000? YES 8. Will Spectre finish above Peanuts? 2000 YES 9. Will at least 2 films have a Friday increase of at least 185%? NO 10. Will the Martian stay above Spotlight? NO 11. Will The Secret in their eye's Sunday stay above $1M? NO 12. Will Mockingjay 2 overtake Spectre's Total gross by the end of the weekend? 2000 YES 13. Will Bridge of Spies' PTA stay above $1000 YES 14. Name any film in the top 15 that drops less than 45% (or choose none). 3000 BROOKLYN 15. Will Goosebumps drop more than 55%? YES 16. Will the combined total Grosses of the three highest new entries by Sunday exceed MJ2's OW total? 2000 YES 17. Will Pan drop less than 30%? NO 18. Will we all do better for once this weekend? Some of us will be well fed. 12/18 2000 points 13/18 3000 points 14/18 4000 points 15/18 6000 points 16/18 8000 points 17/18 10000 points 18/18 15000 points Part 2 1. What will be Good Dinosaur's Total by end of Sunday? (5000) 62.382m 2. What will Creed's Saturday gross be? (5000) 11.014m 3. What will be the difference in weekend gross between Frankenstein and Peanuts? (5000) 6.879m Part 3 3. CREED 5. PEANUTS 8. THE SECRETS IN THEIR EYES 10. VICTOR FRANKENSTEIN 12. LOVE THE COOPERS 3/5 3000 4/5 6000 5/5 10000
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Twilight disagrees. After the bump up from the first to second film, the franchise had amazing staying power, even with a book split. So, there's two things interesting about the HP run. The first is that, at least for the first few films, the gross seemed to be dictated by the quality of the preceding film. The first two were pretty pedestrian adaptations, so the grosses for two and three tailed off some. But the third was very well regarded, and that boosted the fourth up again. But then it seemed to hit that stabilization point. Arguably, for films 4-7, the audience had probably reduced to the point that there were few casuals left. (The final film had 3D, right? So the audience numbers may have been in the same range.) Anyone watching was in it for the long haul. Same thing which happened with Twilight, which hit a similar stabilization level. So, if MJ2 looks to end up in that same area around the 300m mark, could it indicate that for big YA, that's the true market potential for the audience? Yeah, you might get some casuals to come in, but anything long-haul is going to hit around that mark. So, again. THG and CF were punching above expectations. We just didn't know it. Mmm. Mustard gas.
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I'm not convinced anything went wrong. (In fact, I kinda hate the "What Went Wrong" mentality. It's reductive, but that seems to be the way the forums go nowadays.) If we instead ask why the latter two films aren't as big as the first two, there are a number of possibilities. 1. Even among book fans, Mockingjay is not nearly as well liked as the first two. 2. Franchise fatigue. Most franchises will see some sort of dieoff later on, as the casual audience is reduced and you just have the dedicated fans. 3. Splitting the third book may have annoyed some people, who decided to skip it. 4. MJ1 had the classic "split book" problem, where it didn't have an internal arc to tell, which dampened WoM. (although the legs were pretty much standard for the franchise.) 5. For MJ2, Star War has taken a lot of the press about all movies. It's become a relative non-event. 6. Arguably, THG and CF were both punching above their weight class. They had the sweet spot of dedicated fanbase and a curious audience to push them higher. Would a single MJ film have done better? Possibly, but it wouldn't have done nearly as well as two films. Combined, the MJ films are probably going to hit around $600m DOM and 1.4b WW. All at a cost of... ~$250m? So basically an Avengers film. That's a success.