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Everything posted by Eric the Marxist
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There can be exceptions of course, but this is a general rule of thumb. And yeah, it's not confirmed confirmed, but Pixar movies typically perform well in Latin America, I believe Inside Out 2 is performing well in Hispanic-skewing areas according to the tracking team, and animated movies typically overindex on Hispanic viewership for whatever reason. Caucasians will likely still be the biggest demo percentage-wise, but I'm assuming it'll be somewhere in the 30s.
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Big Hero 6 has the vibes where it was a big hit when it came out, but I never see anybody talking about it anymore. Like all the other Revival movies have people still making references to it, toys being sold, rumblings online. But I think the last time I ever saw somebody talk about Big Hero 6 out there in the wild was probably like...7 years ago? Guess part of it is just that Marvel fans have bigger, more exciting things to gush over? I dunno.
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I think the one thing that has been consistent, and I'm sure the tracking team can correct me if I'm wrong, is that movies that skew more white typically have bad walk-ups. Elvis, Indiana Jones, Fall Guy, Furiosa, Flower Moon. I think even Top Gun didn't really have big walk-ups. By contrast, stuff skewed more towards Black/Hispanic viewers typically have bigger walk-ups. So GxK, Equalizer, Creed, Apes, Minions, Kung Fu Panda, Inside Out, etc. So yeah. Not a great sign for Twisters, though I believe the consensus is it should still cross 40M at least, maybe even 50M. That's still fine.
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Despicable Me 4 | July 3, 2024
Eric the Marxist replied to Eric the Marxist's topic in Box Office Discussion
That Variety review really makes it clear I'll have a bad time. These Illumination sequels always feel like a bunch of TV episodes stitched together, and I hate that. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric the Marxist replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Quorum Updates The Crow T-71: 31.33% Awareness, 43.14% Interest Transformers One T-99: 37.4% Awareness, 47.59% Interest Terrifier 3 T-120: 22.51% Awareness, 36.97% Interest Lord of the Rings: War of the Rohirrim T-183: 18.03% Awareness, 42.35% Interest In the Grey T-218: 19.5% Awareness, 37.5% Interest Inside Out 2 T-1: 65.02% Awareness, 57.35% Interest Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 30M, 86% chance of 40M, 74% chance of 50M, 55% chance of 60M, 44% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 80M, 26% chance of 100M Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 83% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 70M, 33% chance of 100M Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 22% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M The Bikeriders T-8: 25.21% Awareness, 38.7% Interest Final Awareness: 16% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 14% chance of 10M Final Interest: 18% chance of 10M Low Interest: 9% chance of 20M Twisters T-36: 49.5% Awareness, 53.39% Interest T-30 Awareness: 56% chance of 40M, 36% chance of 50M, 32% chance of 60M, 20% chance of 80M Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 60M, 17% chance of 80M T-30 Interest: 76% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 51% chance of 50M, 38% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 24% chance of 80M Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 40M, 67% chance of 50M, 55% chance of 60M, 22% chance of 70M, 11% chance of 80M It Ends with Us T-57: 19.96% Awareness, 39.98% Interest T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M, 2% chance of 20M Low Awareness: 21% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M, 8% chance of 20M Low Interest: 20% chance of 10M, 3% chance of 20M Alien: Romulus T-64: 27.69% Awareness, 44.99% Interest T-60 Awareness: 59% chance of 10M, 30% chance of 20M, 12% chance of 30M, 7% chance of 40M Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 67% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 40M T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 57% chance of 30M, 43% chance of 40M