Eric Prime

IIRC Burton mentioned in an interview he only did Alice in Wonderland because it was the only way Disney would greenlight his Frankenweenie movie. Or I think it was he would do Planet of the Apes and then Big Fish could get made? One of the two, I remember that.

Four movies eh? Just those? Boy, if only the studios actually paid their writers and actors, and the box office wouldn't suck (yes I know more movies will be slotted in lol. Gotta keep a bit going.)

July 26 Deadpool 3: People are still predicting big things for this, even after Marvel utterly imploded this year. But like...nah, I don’t buy that. Deadpool 3 is coming out a whopping 6 years after the last Deadpool movie. That’s an eternity in box office time. And at least the Guardians of the Galaxy popped up in other movies and had a holiday special to keep them fresh and in the conversation. Deadpool's been MIA, which only makes the uphill battle even harder. And while people are hyped for Wolverine, the X-Men movies were never Spider-Man grossers and Logan ended things perfectly for the character. Just feels crass to bring him back in a way it wasn’t for the Sony Spider-Men. Add on all the Fox cameos for characters nobody cares about (Jennifer Garner’s Elektra returning is a big deal to nobody), and superhero movies being box office poison now, and this is going to be another disappointment for Marvel yet again. Superhero movies are dead. They should have stopped after Endgame. 90/215 (2.39x)

July 19 Twisters: This is the biggest wildcard of the year. This could go sub-100 and utterly bomb, or be a 300+ juggernaut, and neither would surprise me. The lack of legacyquel nostalgia pandering will hurt it and the brand isn't necessarily the hottest thing right now, but it has a good cast and these kinds of disaster movies don't really exist anymore. It's kind of filling up a market that hasn't been fed in ages. And while it's sad to see Lee Isaac Chung be swallowed into the evils of the blockbuster industrial complex, that could mean the movie's not that bad? This is dependent on a million factors, but I'm going to assume this has okay trailers and 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and does fine for what it is. 42/140 (3.33x)

July 12 Project Artemis: Sony has miraculously found a modest romcom hit with Anyone But You despite having the worst ad campaign ever. So with bigger stars and hopefully better trailers, this seems like a rare non-NTC that could actually do okay, at least to the current dreadful standards comedy movies are dealing with. 15/55 (3.67x)

July 3 Despicable Me 4: Reports are that they’re bringing back the bad guy from the first movie. It’s weird to say that Despicable Me is now old enough to do the legacy sequel thing and pull it off. But nostalgia is the only thing that sells, and the franchise is bigger than ever, especially with the 18-34s who are now the biggest audience sector, so I guess it will work out fine. 120/400 (3.33x)

Like I said yesterday, if there's no flying cow money shot in the Twisters trailer, thing is dead in the water. No cow, no deal.

Yes. One exception to the rule doesn’t invalidate all the other instances.

I’ll get into this more tomorrow, but Twisters is one movie where it could be a sub-100 bomb or a giant 300+ hit and neither would surprise me. It has a big benefit where these kinds of disaster movies haven’t been out for a while, which gives it an advantage like Top Gun or Jurassic World had in terms of feeling fresh. I do think them going for a remake instead of a legacyquel however does seem like something that could backfire. Like I know we all groan over forced nostalgia pandering/member berries, but the masses eat that trash up. Having Helen Hunt in there so people can Leo point and tweet “OMG MY CHILDHOOD” goes a long way in the hype circuit. They also for sure need a CGI flying cow money shot in the trailer. No cow, no deal.

When Friday numbers come out, we can open the weekend thread. I don’t think we have any. But if we do, go ahead and open it.

I just found the name for my Inside Man prequel script.

Honestly not that bad of a month...but I have a bit to keep up. So....oh noooooo theaters are going to die ahhhhhhhh

June 28 A Quiet Place: Day One: Not really sure why they went with a random prequel and aren't finishing the cliffhanger they had in the last movie. Aren't these kids gonna be too old soon? And I don’t think audiences really wanted all this. The brand is still strong enough, but we should see a franchise low here. Which I guess is fine, it’s a prequel with none of the other characters, so whatever. 37/125 (3.38x) Horizon: An American Saga Part 1: I'm sure some people will be confident this will be a breakout, but I don't buy it. The audience that would go to this back in 2009 are now happily watching Yellowstone on TV and have largely refused to go back to theaters apart from Top Gun. They aren’t going to go for this, since it’s, yet again, not a nostalgic toy commercial. But it will do better than most of these movies I suppose. 18/65 (3.61x)

June 21 The Bikeriders: Sadly, this isn't a nostalgic toy commercial, and awards prospects probably won't help it in the summertime. Even the festival buzz and good reviews will be worthless with this delay. I can maybe see it doing slightly better than most with the strong cast, but not that much. 10/35 (3.5x)

June 14 Bad Boys 4: Bad Boys 3 surprised everybody with grossing 200M back when the world was sane and normal, and thankfully Adil and Bilall are back once again to deliver an exciting and fun crowdpleaser. Only real question mark is how much the slap damaged Will Smith’s reputation and popularity, but I think but I think most have moved on and just want a good time. Which this probably will be. 50/170 (3.4x) Inside Out 2: The 2015 classic was already a hugely successful and iconic feature in the Pixar canon since day 1, and was one of the few Pixar movies that people actually wanted a sequel for. And sure enough, people are already excited judging by the crazy views on the teaser trailer, strong Quorum metrics, and it being a nostalgic toy commercial. With Disney putting out next to nothing in theaters, this is likely going to get tons of promo and hype up until release. All that's left is strong reviews, which...eh, even a Monsters University reception will probably be enough. So yeah, it should be a huge shot in the arm for the box office, though it will still be dinged by the Disney+ factor. But not that much. 140/455 (3.25x)

June 7 Ballerina: A Len Wiseman action movie in 2024 is basically destined for 24% on Rotten Tomatoes. Even the John Wick connections won’t save this inevitable hot mess. 12/30 (2.5x) The Watchers: Hard to really say anything about a movie where little is known about it, from an unknown director to boot. It's actually M. Night Shyamalan's kid directing. So...I guess let's assume this movie will also be a divisive one? I dunno, I'm just doing a shot in the dark on this one. 15/40 (2.67x)

I think that's just true of everything.

Quorum Updates Bob Marley: One Love T-47: 31.82% Cabrini T-70: 12.71% The First Omen T-98: 21.77% My Ex-Friend's Wedding T-133: 13.76% Ballerina T-162: 18.73% Horizon: An American Saga Part 1 T-182: 20.3% Deadpool 3 T-210: 54.04% Beetlejuice 2 T-253: 50.02% Night Swim T-7: 35.56% Awareness Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M Drive-Away Dolls T-56: 16.49% Awareness T-60 Awareness: 31% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 10% chance of 10M

I deal with this every time I go to Regal. It's only one ad granted, but it's still a mood kiler At least it's not 2021 anymore where I had to see that Matt Damon crypto ad inbetween the trailers every single time I saw any movie ever.

Honestly? I'm kind of guilty of this sometimes. My brain has become so hardwired to check my phone that sometimes I'll just check Telegram or Twitter for a couple minutes, just to see what people are saying. Even for good movies I do this stuff. And in many ways, it can be very beneficial when I'm watching a bad one. I don't know if this is a me thing, but I wouldn't be surprised if other people did that stuff too. And thankfully, I've never had any experience where somebody was talking on the phone or playing a game.

I took my mom to see Maestro at our local arthouse theater, and it felt so refreshing to have it start at a normal time. You had about 15 minutes consisting of an intro from the theater owner, asking for donations and stuff, one or two commercials for events the theater does (repertory re-releases and junk), then a couple trailers for new movies, and then the movie started. I know what I'm talking about is only like a 25 minute or 30 minute difference, and obviously a nonprofit theater isn't reliant on Toyota ads and stuff, but that really does make a difference. Unless you're watching something on Tubi, and we are conditioned to accept ads on TV more than at the movie theater for obvious reasons, nobody wants this inconvenience thrown at you.

All this stuff is accurate, but the bolded part drives me up the wall. I love my Regal, and they did a good job refurbishing it to make it more modern and fancy, even if one or two auditoriums clearly need to be fixed up after two years. But it feels like every year, they keep increasing the amount of ads you see before the movie. A showing that started at 5:00 used to mean the trailers would start at 5. Which like...kinda misleading, but trailers were always part of the moviegoing experience. Not the most egregious thing I guess. Then it's gone to about 5 minutes of random ads. But now, when a show starts at 5, you're still seeing 10 minutes of random ads for Mountain Dew and M&Ms and Toyota. 10 extra minutes of that crap. And sometimes, I'm pretty sure it goes to 11 or 12 minutes. Sometimes, even near 15 minutes. Then you get the 25 minutes of movie trailers...which are now broken up with another random commercial for Trivago or some crap in the middle of it. It's torturous. So your movie now starts about 40 or 45 minutes from the allotted showtime. Like I'm sure this is done so Regal/AMC can make these advertisers pay extra, but man...you think about the time it takes to drive, the costs for the tickets even at the base price, with most people paying extra to see it in IMAX/4DX, the costs if you want popcorn and water, and then you have to wait 40 minutes to see the movie you paid money for...yeah, it's no wonder streaming and VOD won the battle.

And people wonder why I'm so negative here. Hmmmmmmmm.

https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-2024-predictions-movies-cinemas-1235682149/