Eric Prime

@4815162342 You know what? You're right. The Color Purple isn't a nostalgic toy commercial after all. If it was, it would have had good legs. Guess they should have made Celie and Shug action figures. 🤷‍♂️

This month still sucks though. Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead to be honest.

May 24 Furiosa: Fury Road was already a strong hit back in 2015 and its esteem and reputation has only grown over the years. Sadly, this being a prequel does kind of limit things, and trailer reception was surprisingly on the iffy side. I'm also not sure why it's coming out the same weekend as Planet of the Apes. Still, if Miller delivers something on par with that classic, who knows what the ceiling is? But for now, let’s just go with the idea that it’s good, but slightly less impressive than its predecessor. 40/140 (3.5x) Garfield: This has always been a recognizable and memed franchise, and the trailer has done well in getting animation fans excited and interested. Plus it’s a nostalgic toy commercial, and...well, you know what I have to say about that. Don’t quite think this has the epic breakout chance of a Minions movie or something, but we should be fine either way, and perform better than most animated movies these days. 55/180 (3.27x) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: The lack of Caesar, the most universally loved aspect of the reboot trilogy, will probably hurt its chances, even outside of War being an underperformer. However, people still like these Apes movies quite a bit and the trailer promises fun action and great special effects. It will need some quality reception that I don’t think Wes Ball can pull off, but even with weak reception, getting close to War seems likely. Let’s be optimistic and say this does deliver. 60/160 (2.67x)

May 17 If: Could go either way. A surprise hit or a major bomb. The trailer promises this as a fun, high-concept idea, its the first kids movie in a while, and Ryan Reynolds is one of the few reliable draws we have left. If John Krasinski made a crowdpleaser like his Quiet Place movies, this could be something. The only problem is that this is for little kids and little kids don't go to the movies anymore. Plus it's not a nostalgic toy commercial. Garfield coming out a week later also doesn't help. But perhaps Reynolds fans can propel this to Free Guy numbers. 35/115 (3.29x)

May 10 Horrorscope: Cheesy horror movies can sometimes break through from the "not a nostalgic toy commercial" curse. Not this one. 2/4 (2x) My Ex-Friend’s Wedding: Not a nostalgic toy commercial. 2/5 (2.5x)

May 3 The Fall Guy: Universal is definitely confident in this picture, with the full trailer airing during football and being pushed back, so it can get the summer kick-off slot. Quorum awareness metrics and Twitter trends are already fairly solid for this, plus Ryan Gosling is fresh off his biggest hit. Emily Blunt is always a good presence too. It’s definitely something weirdos will whine about, but this will play quite well with people and be a strong success for this kind of midbudget John Wick action comedy subgenre of movies. 55/150 (2.73x)

Quorum Updates The Book of Clarence T-16: 22.65% Awareness Mean Girls T-16: 46.85% Lisa Frankenstein T-44: 16.59% Imaginary T-72: 24.01% Kung Fu Panda 4 T-72: 47.24% Horrorscope T-135: 12.5% IF T-142: 19.89% The Garfield Movie T-149: 41.74% A Quiet Place: Day One T-184: 27.95% Ordinary Angels T-58: 16.18% Awareness T-60 Awareness: 31% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 27% chance of 10M

I appreciate silliness like this. In fact, it takes us back to the glory days of the 80s when Rambo and Robocop got Saturday morning cartoons. They even tried to do that with Aliens, but it got canceled at the last minute. https://comicsalliance.com/operation-aliens-kenner-alien-toys/

Wow. Only one movie will probably make 100M this movie. And none of the other movies are looking to do much either. Adam Aron might need to look for a new job once we get to this month.

April 26 Challengers: Not a nostalgic toy commercial, but Zendaya’s presence could make this perform a bit better than most. Just enough to get a double digit opening, which in this day and age, is commendable for small movies like these. 11/35 (3.18x) Civil War: This is a legit wild card. I have no clue if this will be good or not, I don't know if A24's audience is big enough to justify the money spent here...let's just assume it opens slightly more than Challengers but makes way less. That feels like the right outcome. 13/30 (2.31x) Unsung Hero: It's about some Christian music band or something? I dunno, I guess it'll do the usual Christian box office gross. 5/20 (4x)

April 12 Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire: Godzilla vs. Kong still crossed the century mark despite the odds stacked against it release-wise, and there’s enough of a fanbase for these Monsterverse movies that this should also get above the century mark too, even if the concept and marketing isn't as effective or memorable for obvious reasons. But considering how this franchise has never really been cream of the crop, only just barely. 45/110 (2.44x)

April 5 The First Omen: This isn’t really the biggest horror franchise out there, and I doubt this is any good, but horror fans are a reliable one and there’s probably a good money shot in the trailer for it to not be a total embarrassment box office wise. 20/45 (2.25x)

Quorum Updates The Boys in the Boat T-0: 27.87% Awareness The Color Purple T-0: 51.33% Ferrari T-0: 34.02% The Beekeeper T-18: 36.07% I.S.S. T-25: 20.8% Arthur the King T-88: 25.17% The Watchers T-165: 28.28% The Bikeriders T-179: 14.17% Night Swim T-11: 32.85% Awareness Final Awareness: 36% chance of 10M, 6% chance of 20M Horror Awareness: 45% chance of 10M, 9% chance of 20M Argylle T-39: 18.88% Awareness T-30 Awareness: 13% chance of 10M Medium Awareness: 11% chance of 10M

Because they also did and said problematic stuff and don't like being held accountable for their actions. Use the cancel culture boogeyman to get out of your problem. It definitely goes both ways.

Moderation Alright, about to move this into the Numbers/Data forum. But as a reminder once again to people, when I, or any other mod, ask you to stop something, you stop. No hesitation. No stammers. No ifs. No ands. No buts. No nothing. Please listen to the staff, or else more repercussions head your way. Thank you.

Moderation This goes for you too mister. We don't need this stuff on the forum. Period.

Moderation I was about to move some posts around to make a new thread, but before I do that....yeah @Valonqar please do not post sexist garbage like this. I truly doubt the world needs women to dress ultra super sexy and have giant chests in order to find success in the movies. And if that is the case, we have a bigger problem in our awful patricarchal society, and it's a pity that you are encouraging this. Please keep your hand out of your pants, or greater repercussions will come your way. You're an adult, so act like one. I hate that I have to wake up to this utter trash and that I even have to explain that this type of garbage shouldn't be on the forum, but I guess I can't expect too much from some of you. Ohhhhhhhhhhhh well.

Wow. Even with two guaranteed hits, this month will still suck. Theaters are screwed, aren’t they?

March 29 Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire: Afterlife was well-liked, but I feel like it was more in the Shazam/Captain Marvel camp where people thought it was fine, but it didn’t really get anybody all that excited or hyped for another one. And the new trailer hasn’t really moved the needle when it comes to The Quorum. If anything, having a winter-themed movie play in the Spring like this might actually kind of ding it a bit. It's like if Frozen came out on Arbor Day. This will only appeal to the diehard fans and Sony has another dead franchise once again. Oh well. 35/88 (2.51x) Mickey 17: The lack of promo on this compared to all the other WB spring movies means this is getting a delay, or this is Bong's first dud and WB's trying to bury it. Either way...well, it’s not a nostalgic toy commercial. 13/35 (2.69x)

March 22 Arthur the King: Mark Wahlberg's starpower will help it a bit, and there's always a market for these cheesy dog movies, but with Lionsgate delivering more misses than hits and non-NTCs still struggling to find success, I don't expect much out of this. Definitely not as much as Channing Tatum's Dog. 8/33 (4.12x)

March 8 Cabrini: Angel Studios movies do about 10M apiece, so I guess that sounds about right for this one. 4/13 (3.25x) Imaginary: Saw the trailer for this and it looked pretty dumb and cliched. Even with Blumhouse connections, this just seems like a movie that will get lost in the shuffle, and the director does not inspire confidence. Add on poor Quorum metrics, and we'll all forget this even existed after a couple months. 8/18 (2.25x) Kung Fu Panda 4: The franchise never became that huge since the first movie, but the movies have been on every streaming service under the sun for years and is still a fairly recognizable name amongst nostalgic Gen Zers and kids today. The Universal marketing machine is also a strong one, especially for animated movies. It’s not going that huge, since kids don’t care about movie theaters anymore, but this should get close to stuff like Puss in Boots 2 or Sing 2 off of being a nostalgic toy commercial. Kung Fu Panda 3 adjusts to 175M, so let’s go slightly below that. 50/165 (3.3x)

March 1 Dune Part Two: Finally, some good fucking food. While not necessarily universally beloved, Denis’ first film is still well-regarded and brought in tons of new fans to the property who have likely gone on to read the books in anticipation for its follow-up. I know I have. Plus, it basically has all of March to itself, Timothee is fresh off the Wonka buzz, there's nothing else out to watch. It’s still too insular and cerebeal to really break out and do bonkers blockbuster numbers, and Quorum numbers are a bit shaky, but it should still be comfortably above the last movie. Songbirds and Snakes numbers feel about right all things considered. 55/170 (3.09x)

I mean it's not just Frozen. She wrote the screenplay for Wreck-It Ralph, developed the story for Zootopia, and was on the creative teams for Big Hero 6 and Moana, all of which became Disney's hits. When you have insights and creative inputs on all those movies and clearly have a passion for where you work...yeah, I don't blame Iger appointing her the job back in 2018. It's not like he has a crystal ball where he can see the future. And even after that, regardless on how you feel on these movies, and I know people have their weird hot takes, Ralph 2 and Frozen 2 earned solid reviews and more than solid box office, Raya was a critical success that will forever be a part of the Disney Princess machine, and Encanto has almost immediately become one of Disney's S-tier properties. So really, she's had more hits than misses.

Cancel culture isn't real. It's a term that was made up by conservatives and rich folk so they don't have to worry about being held accountable for their actions. Just create some false boogeyman that makes it easier for them to not actually get in trouble. It's always funny to me how people decry cancel culture and how it ruins lives, yet every time it happens, either increased sales happen, or said figures, who 9 times out of 9 are richer than we will ever be, are given a new opportunity a few months later. Like it doesn't actually matter or something.