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Everything posted by Eric Deetz
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Also Furiosa isn't even that big of a risk? Even remotely? Like in 2019 or 2020 or whenever this was greenlit, if I was given a pitch for a movie that was a prequel to an Oscar-winning film, a film considered one of the greatest in its entire genre, that made a ton of money, was a massive hit in the home video and television market, and starred a rising actress who has been in several hits movies and TV shows...yeah, I'd probably give that a greenlight. Like how pathetic must our industry/moviegoers have to be when this pitch is "too risky" or "destined to bomb"? Honestly?
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No offense to @charlie Jatinder, but I think you need to figure out your projections or just keep it to yourself, because this is like the third time or so that you overpredicted a movie's previews on social media, and that's really not helpful to anybody. I also think we need to stop opening up threads when Charlie posts his numbers on Twitter. It's just making things way worse and way more miserable for all parties.
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IIRC, there were tons of people on the forum who expected it to do as big as 300M+, just on the popularity of the first Lego Movie and the Batman brand alone. Which like...yeah, that was kind of stupid to expect in hindsight for a spin-off. And yeah, I guess 175M does sound right. Maybe it could have gotten to 200M Lego Movie 2 came out in 2017 and Batman came out in 2019? It certainly hurt Lego Movie 2 though, and will likely hurt a Hardy-led Mad Max sequel. By the time it dropped, it didn't really feel like the big direct sequel to a hit movie anymore.
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Hot take: I know that the script for Furiosa had been in the works for decades and Miller's way more passionate over that idea than a direct Fury Road sequel, but I feel like Furiosa would have done way better if it had came out after a second Hardy-Mad Max film was released. That would have benefited way more from the goodwill of Fury Road, made the franchise more popular and relevant, and then would have made people more eager to see a Furiosa prequel that has none of the actors people are familiar with. This whole situation is basically like when Lego Batman came out before Lego Movie 2.
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Furiosa I can kind of see (TGM did 6.6x w/ Early Access, 7.5x isn't too crazy IMO), but I call BS on Garfield only getting 10x. This isn't going to play like Little Mermaid or even Aladdin. I can buy it doing worse than IF's IM, but surely something like Cruella's 15.35x IM makes way more sense, right?
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Quorum Updates The Watchers T-15: 29.44% Awareness, 44.24% Interest Harold and the Purple Crayon T-71: 15.76% Awareness, 33.81% Interest The Fire Inside T-78: 12.89% Awareness, 37.56% Interest Trap T-78: 25.04% Awareness, 47.14% Interest White Bird T-133: 12.55% Awareness, 38.98% Interest Mufasa: The Lion King T-211: 48.2% Awareness, 56.14% Interest Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-1: 44.67% Awareness, 44.06% Interest Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M The Garfield Movie T-1: 61.28% Awareness, 51.29% Interest Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 92% chance of 30M, 88% chance of 40M, 76% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 48% chance of 70M, 36% chance of 80M, 28% chance of 100M Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 70M, 40% chance of 100M Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 61% chance of 30M, 46% chance of 40M, 33% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 15% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 83% chance of 50M, 50% chance of 90M, 33% chance of 100M Sight T-1: 12.89% Awareness, 29.62% Interest Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M Final Interest: 0% chance of 10M Low Interest: 0% chance of 20M -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Moderation Guys we're getting a little off-topic. Please focus on the numbers and tracking. -
The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
I think Deadpool (and I guess Inside Out?) have taken us back to the evils of Mickey’s Law. For non-Disney movies, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Things were already bad in our nostalgic toy commercial era. I hate that our culture has regressed itself yet again. It ain’t fun. -
It’s racist against purple monsters.
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I must be on the wrong part of the Internet. In what universe are IF and Fall Guy part of some culture war?
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
Eric Deetz replied to Shawn Robbins's topic in Box Office Discussion
Quorum Updates Inside Out 2 T-23: 57.44% Awareness, 54.33% Interest Despicable Me 4 T-42: 57.77% Awareness, 56.94% Interest Maxxxine T-44: 16.51% Awareness, 34.91% Interest Borderlands T-79: 29.19% Awareness, 44.01% Interest Cuckoo T-79: 12.07% Awareness, 39.91% Interest Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga T-2: 44.72% Awareness, 44.5% Interest Final Awareness: 46% chance of 20M, 25% chance of 30M, 16% chance of 40M, 9% chance of 70M Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 20M Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M The Garfield Movie T-2: 58.61% Awareness, 49.45% Interest Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M Final Interest: 48% chance of 10M, 17% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M, 4% chance of 70M Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 20M, 10% chance of 70M Sight T-2: 13.22% Awareness, 29.12% Interest Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 0% chance of 10M Final Interest: 0% chance of 10M Low Interest: 0% chance of 20M The Bikeriders T-30: 15.83% Awareness, 33.5% Interest T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 12% chance of 10M Final Interest: 33% chance of 10M Low Interest: 27% chance of 10M A Quiet Place: Day One T-37: 34.27% Awareness, 50.36% Interest T-30 Awareness: 82% chance of 10M, 54% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 12% chance of 40M Horror Awareness: 89% chance of 10M, 55% chance of 20M, 33% chance of 30M, 11% chance of 40M Final Interest: 94% chance of 10M, 86% chance of 20M, 77% chance of 30M, 67% chance of 40M Horror Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 40% chance of 30M, 20% chance of 40M