Eric the Marxist

I'm very much "assume the worst" for all superhero movies box office-wise these days, until proven otherwise (Deadpool and Joker should be fine, still kinda wait and see with Venom). And honestly, even Fantastic Four and Superman are looking pretty dicey IMO. Feel like next year could be like 2023 all over again for the genre.

It’s…not personal? And I’m not picking a fight? I’m just arguing with Legion about something. And it hasn’t gotten hostile IMO. Spirited? Sure. But we’re just arguing over different viewpoints, which is what forums are all about. Nobody is insulting one another, so things are fine. But you know? It’s clear neither party will agree, so I’ll end it here. I have my feelings, others have their own. It’s all good.

I mean I specifically said in the post you quoted that it doesn’t happen all the time. I know for Fall Guy and Bad Boys that it was accurate or even under predicted. But again, it shows how inconsistent he is and how wonky his projections are, and being right sometimes doesn’t invalidate his overestimating on other times. At the very least, I think it’s fair to say he is far from perfect with this stuff and he isn’t above criticism. Sorry.

That's also a big problem. Like I didn't bring it up, but he said IF was going to have "1.8M+ previews". That implies 1.8M is the minimum it can do. When it goes to 1.75M...yeah, I got a problem with that. Because you just said it did lower than even what is posted as the "low end". I'm sure that's not Charlie's intentions, but intentions don't equal actions.

Two weeks ago, Charlie's projections were 2.5M for Garfield and 4M for Furiosa. It went 1.9M and. 3.5M. Big drops. Charlie said 7M for Kingdom of the Apes, then it went lower at 6.6M. Challengers he had at 2.5M, then the actual was 1.9M. Civil War he had at 3.5M previews, and it was 2.9M. Like...yeah. He does overestimate previews. And in some cases, like Furiosa or Challengers, that's a pretty significant amount. Is it every single time? Of course not. But this has been a pretty consistent pattern of Charlie's. And I think it's fair to call it out when it happens this many times in the span of a few weeks. I'm clearly outnumbered in people thinking it should still be posted. But Charlie needs to figure out how to fix up his projections when he tweets this stuff out. Because this information isn't helpful. If anything, it makes things way worse for all parties.

https://deadline.com/2024/06/box-office-bad-boys-ride-or-die-1235961796/

The Watchers hit 1M. Which like...it could be worse? I guess?

Charlie is allowed to see another day. Thank god

Probably about half of that. Maybe 20M if it got lucky.

Quorum Updates Twisters T-43: 48.83% Awareness, 53.83% Interest They Listen T-85: 9.83% Awareness, 35.08% Interest The Best Christmas Pageant Ever T-155: 8.6% Awareness, 27.85% Interest Moana 2 T-174: 44.58% Awareness, 50.45% Interest Sonic the Hedgehog 3 T-197: 41.42% Awareness, 44% Interest Bad Boys for Life T-1: 67.03% Awareness, 58.38% Interest Final Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 88% chance of 30M, 85% chance of 40M, 73% chance of 50M, 58% chance of 60M, 46% chance of 70M Medium Awareness: 100% chance of 70M Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M Medium Interest: 75% chance of 20M, 58% chance of 30M, 25% chance of 40M, 8% chance of 50M The Watchers T-1: 31.97% Awareness, 45.95% Interest Final Awareness: 41% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 47% chance of 10M Final Interest: 49% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 45% chance of 10M Inside Out 2 T-8: 57.54% Awareness, 51.83% Interest Final Awareness: 92% chance of 20M, 73% chance of 30M, 35% chance of 40M, 23% chance of 50M, 15% chance of 60M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M Final Interest: 79% chance of 20M, 60% chance of 30M, 45% chance of 40M, 31% chance of 50M, 23% chance of 60M, 16% chance of 70M, 14% chance of 80M, 11% chance of 90M, 8% chance of 100M Animation/Family Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 86% chance of 30M, 71% chance of 50M, 43% chance of 90M, 29% chance of 100M Cuckoo T-57: 11.07% Awareness, 37.24% Interest T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 46% chance of 10M T-60 Interest: 33% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 40% chance of 10M Borderlands T-64: 28.31% Awareness, 42.84% Interest T-60 Awareness: 60% chance of 10M, 31% chance of 20M Medium Awareness: 75% chance of 10M, 37% chance of 20M T-60 Interest: 62% chance of 10M, 34% chance of 20M Medium Interest: 68% chance of 10M, 36% chance of 20M

I mean you say that, but you've been overpredicting preview numbers like crazy over the past couple weeks. Just saying...

Guys, M37 literally didn't say anything. Y'all are just projecting your thoughts and saying what he's feeling, acting like you know what he is feeling is underperforming. Let the man breathe for a second

Was vibing with a lot of the tension and suspense, even if it's clearly no M. Night. But then the third act comes in and...yeah, things get really clunky by the end. I can say I still liked it, but this was some serious wasted potential.

Are those dogs fresh?

Are the DM4 numbers 3-day or 5-day?

I already saw this in theaters last year, but I'm more than happy to do it again.

lmao at Garfield getting Elemental legs out of the blue. Obviously it won't go as high as that movie, but this really might get to 100M on the basis that there is just nothing for kids to watch until Inside Out 2.

Still relevant. This whole thing is just...so weird.

I mean you can't really change a release date this late in the game. They made their bed. They're gonna have to sleep in it. And honestly, while I'm sure the second weekend drop will be bad, I think it and Deadpool will co-exist. Important to remember this is the only big PG-13 tentpole for the rest of the summer. That goes a long way, as Planet of the Apes has shown.