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Eric Deetz

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Everything posted by Eric Deetz

  1. Maybe Uni execs didn't realize what they had, but I feel they could have and should have negotiated to have the movie play in 4DX for weeks on end a la Oppenheimer. Granted Chung isn't Nolan, but I'm sure you could have worked out something. Sharing with Deadpool or Alien at the very least.
  2. I’m one of the 8 people who saw this in theaters and I have no idea why. I think for a friend’s birthday party? All I remember was that Vanessa Hudgens’ character could control scorpions or something?
  3. The idea of a movie that looks as horrific as Return of Jafar or Hunchback of Notre Dame 2 being on the big screen is a concept so terrifying that it can keep a man awake at night.
  4. As the man who coined the phrase "nostalgic toy commercial", I have the final say on whether Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3 are nostalgia bait. The answer...is yes.
  5. Dune 2 and Wonka should have made more though. Just because.
  6. I mean...I guess an extra 50M was lost with Christmas Eve being on Friday...I guess? But you're really overstating how the calendar works. And honestly, I'd argue the Christmas bump in general isn't as extreme as some users here make it out to be. It's there, but a film's not gonna add an extra 200M to a movie's total just because it came out in late December.
  7. Anyways, this is now an excuse for me to give my top 10 for the rest of the year. This oughta be fun. 1. Moana 2 (425M) 2. Joker 2 (405M) 3. Beetlejuice 2 (370M) 4. Mufasa: The Lion King (285M) 5. Sonic 3 (260M) 6. Wicked (230M) 7. Venom 3 (215M) 8. Gladiator 2 (140M) 9. Smile 2 (110M) 10. Transformers One (100M) Joker is the one I’m going super bold on. The initial novelty factor of the first one has been circumvented by both the goodwill of the last movie and especially Gaga’s casting that I can see a decent increase. I’m also assuming its “society!” message will also resonate once again, and the trailers are resonating with damn near everybody. Even me. And I think the first Joker sucks eggs! I had Moana doing somewhere in the 300s, and I think it’s more likely than people care to admit. And I think something like 360M or whatever would still be super impressive and incredibly good, though I know people will whine about how “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER”. But on the other hand, the buzz and excitement seems pretty palatable looking at Quorum metrics, social media, the popularity of that first movie, etc. Just seems like we’re in for a Shrek to Shrek 2-style bump, and that would take us to 410M, so might as well go just a wee bit higher. But again, I think the 300s would still be great for it. Using Maleficent 2’s drop for Mufasa would give it 256M, which is probably where it would be at in the summer or something. So add on a couple extra 30M to the total right there. If it hits those numbers though, we’re probably gonna have a lot of Little Mermaid-style fighting over whether that’s a “good number” or not. Which is not gonna be fun for me! Sonic and Gladiator also seem like they’ll be annoying with a lot of “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER” takes. Oh well. Main thing I accounted for in my own rankings is not just the NTC effect, but also, and more importantly, the Mickey’s Law effect. It’s very clear we’re back in the world where, for non-Disney films, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Joker’s a DC movie, and the masses think every superhero thing is Marvel, so that doesn’t count. But hey! Beetlejuice seems like it will be an exception, barring some Twisters-style collapse overseas. But yeah, the non-NTCs are looking ugly. Wild Robot could get to 100M with good legs, though it’s still frustrating that animated movies, the last bastion where we could get breakout hits that weren’t NTCs, are barely able to get to the century mark unless they have great legs and zero competition. That’s a bad sign for the industry. Both it and Smile 2 seem like the only potential breakouts when it comes to non-NTCs this year. Though I guess there might be a random A24 film that gets to 40M+? Maybe? I dunno. And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too, but that’s also basically an NTC when you get down to it. We’re gonna have a lot of hits this fall! But it’s still looking bleak! Wish audiences bothered to be daring for once! Oh well!
  8. I made a top 10 for the summer prediction earlier this year, so might as well look back on it and laugh. The actual top 10 meanwhile is probably: I was going super conservative because it really seemed like things were going to be bleak and embarrassing for the rest of the year, especially since it seemed like Disney movies and superhero stuff seemed like it would be permanently depressed and down. But alas, I should have never, ever in a million years doubted Mickey's Law. For non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney movies can bomb...but not because of the law. Not making that mistake again. And all told, despite the law being the law, it was definitely a decent summer all things considered. Still got concerning spots in our NTC hellscape...but it could be worse I suppose.
  9. That’s weird. I thought Deadpool being so big would help trickle down the money to Reagan. 🤔
  10. https://deadline.com/2024/08/box-office-summer-labor-day-deadpool-wolverine-afraid-1236073792/
  11. Great film. Love the whole nonlinear structure and how brutal it got at points.
  12. https://www.metacritic.com/movie/babygirl-2024/ https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/babygirl_2024 82 on MC, 83% on RT
  13. So...how have y'all been this past week? Enjoying yourselves?
  14. https://deadline.com/2024/08/box-office-summer-labor-day-deadpool-wolverine-afraid-1236073792/
  15. Will say that this is a very concerting and disheartening aspect that I do think is hurting indie releases. My local arthouse never was against showing wide releases, but they were almost always stuff like Orient Express or Downton Abbey or James Bond. And I mean these are wide releases that skew towards the olds and have a PBS/BBC style prestige, so I guess it isn’t the worst thing ever. But post-COVID, they’ve been dipping way more into tentpoles or stuff that really skirts the line. For something like the Dune movies or even Barbie, you could maybe argue they are auteur, artistically-driven products, so…sure. And even Crawdads and It Ends With Us are based on popular books that likely have a lot of older/senior viewership. But now my arthouse has shown stuff like The Batman and Twisters and Beetlejuice 2, and it’s like…y’all have no excuse other than you have nothing else to show. And that’s just bad for the smaller movies if even what should be a safe haven for them is rejecting their presence. I can already picture stuff like Conclave or Nightbitch getting rejected in favor of Gladiator 2 or Wicked or Mufasa, and like…I guess it would sell more tickets, but I still don’t like it.
  16. Quorum Updates Never Let Go T-22: 26.81% Awareness, 48.45% Interest Saturday Night T-43: 17.62% Awareness, 43.39% Interest Red One T-78: 25.07% Awareness, 45.24% Interest Gladiator II T-85: 42.83% Awareness, 48.15% Interest 1992 T-1: 27.75% Awareness, 45.41% Interest Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M Afraid T-1: 25.44% Awareness, 46% Interest Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-8: 72.75% Awareness, 67.15% Interest Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M The Front Room T-8: 27.1% Awareness, 44.11% Interest Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M White Bird T-36: 17.6% Awareness, 39% Interest T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M Low Interest: 24% chance of 10M Here T-64: 15.12% Awareness, 40.64% Interest T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M Medium Awareness: 40% chance of 10M T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M Medium Interest: 65% chance of 10M
  17. https://thequorum.com/weekly-unaided-awareness-chart-where-are-gladiator-ii-and-venom-the-last-dance/
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