DAJK

Does Smile have a chance at 11M off of that Wedensday?

Wow, color me surprised lol. I would still say 50 is still going to be tough, previews started 2 hours earlier than Kills, and WOM appears to be awful.

Meh, Halloween Ends was pretty much on par with kills across the theatres I track. Some were slightly above, others were slightly below. But it all more or less averaged out. Whoopdedoo.

I'm getting the feeling that no matter what, this is going to Rise of Skywalker/JW Dominion at the box office; drop even harder from its predecessor/pay for its predecessor's sins. And the fact that this isn't apparently all that good isn't going to help either.

Not one that I'm a part of

It's just crazy to me how massive this franchise was a decade ago (that also feels crazy to say). Like, this thing was MASSIVE. Nothing could touch it. Nobody outside geek circles ever really care when major trailers drop, but I remember in grade 8 our English teacher had to stop the lesson in the middle of class because the Catching Fire trailer dropped. This thing was on another level.

My guess it that it will increase from DotN, but still come nowhere near the numbers Orient Express did.

Shazam numbers would be fine.

Anecdotal but I've been talking with a few of the managers who work at various theatres at the company I used to work at, and none of them are particularly confident in Ticket to Paradise. When we're discussing our attendance forecasts for the upcoming weeks, they all suggested I was too bullish on the film when I said it could to (numbers that would be the equivalent of) $18-20M at these theatres.

Damn, and they're really thinking 55% drop for Smile? That would be unfortunate after such an awesome second weekend hold. Keeping my fingers crossed for something closer to 40%.

I'm a bit too young to remember her early numbers days, but I do recall people still talking about her often in the old days (aka pre-covid lol). RIP though, for someone who follows box office, she was definitely one of the most influential figures in the business.

I genuinely think part of Smile’s insane WOM is how many people thought it was going to be bad. Before it came out, all I heard was “it looks like Truth or Dare” or “it looks silly/campy”. Don’t underestimate how strong “wait... this is actually GOOD?” WOM can be.

Because... why? Don’t leave us hanging!

Hey now, when Man I Feel Like A Woman comes on at the club, people go WILD.

I like the cast. I’m game.

Genuinely excited to see what Parker Finn does next. Would kind of like to see him go the Mike Flanagan route and develop/write/direct his own horror series. But part of me would be genuinely curious if he lightning could strike twice with Smile 2.

I guess so I didn't dislike it, but it definitely isn't a fast-paced jump-fest for the typical Friday night horror crowd.

I would be shocked if Smile did not increase substantially with actuals. That Sunday drop is far too harsh, that estimate would mean a harder Sunday drop this week than last week. If you look at previous Indigenous People's Day weekends, the Sunday holds are much stronger than usual. Not going to be surprised at all if it increases nearly a full million from estimates (Saturday at 7.4 also seems a bit low, I could see it climbing to roughly 7.6 with actuals).

The fact that Smile was originally intended as a straight-to-streaming release should hopefully give other studios the idea that, if they are confident in the movie itself, then a theatrical release shouldn’t hurt. Ahem I’m looking at you, Glass Onion.

Yuck. Smile is literally the only interesting thing this weekend (I guess Woman King's holds are fun to watch; that movie is just so good it deserves every penny it's getting).

Pretty much what I expected. X had a better hook (and was a better film) and only made 11.7M. This will top out at 9-10M, and really is essentially an arthouse slow-burn slasher that is so loosely tied to X story-wise that you wouldn't know they're even connected unless you actually saw X.

Crazy hold. A Quiet Place dropped 34% in its second weekend and went on to have a 3.7x multi. Get Out dropped 15% and went on to have a 5.22x multi. Sure, the drop against Halloween next weekend is sure to be a least a little steeper, but I wouldn't rule out a 4-4.5 multiplier. Especially since this opened a full month before Halloween (the holiday, not the movie), it has an entire 5 weekends to make cash. By the end of its 5th weekend, Get Out had made 84% of its domestic total. A Quiet Place had made 85% of its total by the end of its 5th weekend. Even if Smile sinks like a rock come November, its run will be close to over anyways. As long as it doesn't drop something crazy like 60+% next weekend, I would argue that 100M is a fair bet for this.

Smile is genuinely turning into a beast at the locations I've been tracking lately. Pretty much all locations are seeing sub 20 or even sub 10% drops this weekend, and a few are even seeing increases, which is practically unheard of in the horror genre. If it weren't for Halloween next weekend, I wouldn't rule out a domestic total close to The Ring (2002) unadjusted.

Amsterdam sales are too strong for me to confidently predict sub-5M for it. Probably going with 9-12 for the time being.

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