POTUS 2020

Posted above in the wrong thread. Lo siento mucho AOU #6 All Time Watch China not looking great after the wed number came out. If Thursday drops to or below 100m it could mean an ugly weekend. FF7 and TF4 held 10%~ on it 2nd weekday after OD/OW. If it drops 15 or more % then the week could below 850m/$140m and possibly looking at low $200m for a total DOM second weekend is just 7% ahead of IM3 after OW was 10% ahead and is losing a little bit of ground on the daily. FF7 and IM3 fell 50% their 3rd weeknd, if AoU falls 55% or more than 430m becomes a target Looks like OS-C has come in with 11m for Monday-Tuesday based on the new update with chinas opening. Looking at a 20m mon--thur similar to Dom. If the weekend drops more than 55% below 685 OS-C is likely Japan possibly 25m China 230.0 Japan 25.0 OS-CJ 680.0 DOM 430.0 Total 1365.0 A little more crashing and burning and it could get down to DH2

China? 235m +/- 10%. too early to tell. need to see Friday- Saturday WW? 1.400B +/- 50m again depending on China mostly

FF7 #3 all time watch 1,128 OS 338.5 DOM as of Sunday China added 1.5m mon-tues and closed Japan is averaging better than 150k per day this week after a strong 40% weekend hold. It could be close to 800k m-f and probably 800k this weeknd. Little in the way of new openers post GW in Japan. Increasing on a sequel is becoming a rarity in Japan. They must really like it. I could see another 3.2m after this weekend with the way Japan can be leggy. OS had a 10m weekend w/o japan. I still believe it can do over 2x. 20-25m still there. No data to see how its doing midweek DOM holding better than down 20% for the last 5 days. That was expected after AOU opening. Another good hold of 40% or better and a Memorial day bump could help it to do up to 3x more from last weekend. IM3 and TA1 did a similar multiplier from this level. Cur OS 1128.0 China 1.5 Japan 4.8 OS-CJ 20.0 DOM 338.5 Dom x 16.5 Total 1509.3 If OS can bring in 2.5x, its weekdays have been strong, then it gets even closer They have done late summer pushes with movies to get them over milestones. Last year "This is the end" made 4m after it was dead with an expansion to get over 100m. Italian Job did the same making 10m more 10 years ago. If FF7 is still alive in late August and they haven't released the DVD they could do an IMAX expansion, a few weeks after F4 and MI5, in a few countries and make several more million for bragging rights over TA1, TA2, and #3 WW to promote DVD and FF8

RIP. He sucked. His projections were as bad as a blind man looking for a black cat in a dark room that isn't there. I loved the declining BO revenue on foreign weekly gross. He put in the XR for the entire run in a given week instead of applying the current XR for the current week. Easy spreadsheet change. Lazy not to figure it out or ask for help, stupid to actually post a smaller revenue after more tickets were sold. Lazy and stupid not to change it. I lliked Brandon. I liked the derby and he was in the top 5 a lot. Don't know why they got rid of it. I thought the whole Idea of a websight was page views. I'm sure that generated a lot of page views? boxoffice should do a derby. not in a thread but on its own page with stats of players like BOM had. I took second a few times, never 1st dammit and then it ended. It was fun, a couple guys were in the top 5 a lot and hard to beat. played it for nearly 10 years.

AOU OW was deflated by sporting events on sat and sunday. The weekdays having a larger spread reflects the sports deflation and caused in increase in the percentage total. bottom line: AOU fell 59.2% to 58.4% the following weekend even with a deflated OW. The first weekend was 10% ahead in $, the second was just 7.2% ahead, next weekend will be flat. That's shrinkage son, like jumpin into ice cold water! FF7 dropped 51% for weekend 3. I don't think AoU holds that well. Competition or lack there of means nothing when it comes to so so WOM

Not low balling at all. TA2 is still losing ground to IM3 and will lose more, faster, as IM3 will have a couple good holds coming up that TA2 wont. You will see their dailies match within a week and TA2s drop under in 2 weeks. A better comparison is FF7s second weekend.. It'll do 1.7x its second weekend for the remainder. 1.7 for TA2 is 443m but its not going to hold as well, 430m at best I am actually in agreement with FD that OS is only good for 680m. SK taking a dump and much of Europe will too. Japan often drops on sequels and the XR is huge. you're right, 25m is probably the number. 705 is my number Now here's were it gets interesting for the one that said its dull and the other that brought up DH2 OS Allow me to preface. It got a raw deal with 3d only. A majority of the worlds movie goers don't want to see it, so I gotta believe it would've been over $300m if 2d was in China and is the reason I firmly believed it would not clear 250m since 2 weeks ago. Why is TA2s run interesting? Its the opposite of FF7 which is very interesting. We all like to see milestones broken. This is breaking milestones in reverse. FF7 started out with, "could a 7th installment beat FF6", after opening weekend it was, 1 billion WW? then 1b OS? then DH2 WW? quickly after that. Then could it beat TA2? now 1.5b looks certain to me, in question for others, and I believe beating TA1 is still possible. TA2 started out as likely to be above TA1 WW and #1 movie of the year with Chinas explosion, to DOM being more front loaded than a stripper with 800cc implants, to 1,5b in doubt, to possibly losing to FF7, to 1b OS in doubt, 1.4b WW in doubt, and now talk of DH2 OS in doubt. Lets up it (or down it) one more possibility (keysersose will let you know I like to push the envelope) What if it is below 100m tomorrow? The weekend will suck and the week will be well below 900m. with the notorious 60-70% drops china can have, this puppy may just crawl to $200m. now were talking 430 705 200 Under DH2 WW. How's that for a low ball? Possible We have two fun things to root, track and extrapolate for the next few days/weeks. Will FF7 glide up to 1.52b over the next 8 weeks? Will TA2 crash and burn down to 1.34b in 4 weeks? This will piss a few people off OK let me have it

Possibly 710os 250 ch 430 Dom 1.4b is not guaranteed at this point Gonna be close to DH2 Gun to my head? Unda

A look at predictions from two weeks ago, most are in the 200-300 range before the presale hype started talking it up more into the 300s OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 950.0 350.0 1300.0 650.0 1950.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 825.0 285.0 1110.0 565.0 1675.0 Ent . 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 MikeTheAvenger 850.0 200.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 M F Lawrence 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 808.4 271.4 1074.0 552.4 1626.4 OS-C looking at 700-720 depending on Japan CHi maybe mid 200's after todays number OS 1B is becoming less likely DOM 4 way tie for the 500m predictors WW Now certain to below 1,5b is looking to go to the low baller Samsha

wow. matched TF4s first Monday but that was after a $103m weekend and is losing ground to FF7s Thursday after $143m in sales if it drops close 100m tomorrow were looking at the week barely clearing 900m and possibly below 1500m/$250m total Unless its a "weekend movie"

Johnny and I were saying mid 200m from the beginning, no let down around these parts, unless it really drops tomorrow and no weekend recovery

doomed!! TF4 FF7 AOU Day Yuan Daily % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan Daily % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan Daily % +/- Total $ Tot Trails TF4 Trails FF7 Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 398 64 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 583 94 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 750 121 212 212 34 107.8 86.8 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 887 143 130 -38.7% 342 55 102.3 87.9 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 1002 162 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 142 23.8% 1144 185 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 226 59.0% 1371 221 Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 185 -18.1% -46.6% 1556 251 Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 1433 235 73 -60.6% -60.5% 1629 263 Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 1486 244 65 -11.0% -61.1% 1694 273 Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 1529 251 52 -19.4% -61.8% 1747 282 Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -14.1% -60.9% 1792 289 Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 1610 264 59 31.1% -58.6% 1851 298 Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 1672 274 92 55.1% -59.6% 1942 313 Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 69 -24.2% -62.6% 2012 324 That actual and the 130 estimate not sounding good TA2 has the disadvantage of 1 less weekend, TF4 had summer weekdays and 50% holds FF7 kept a large amount of showtimes for its second and 3rd weekends and had a holiday boost. Its a lot to overcome to have a 300m run and try to at least beat TF4 I put a trail column in to monitor how much ground it can gain(or not) in the next 10 days which are the most crucial.

That's a good way to look at it. with the Tuesday opening it will only have 4 weekends not 5 and the question is does it lose a lot of screens next weekend or the following. FF7 had a $93m "head start" with the sunday(+Mon) opener and kept a lot of screens for 3 weekends when including the first sunday as a weekend. FF7 consistently fell 60% until the holiday and last week, TF4 fell 50% mostly. Itll need to hold close to FF7s numbers for the next 5 days(wed-thurs wont be a problem), then hold close to 50% drops the following week. Remember, FF7 had a holiday bump worth 20m that it would also have to play catch up on.

Johnny's numbers have been consistent. I would go with 36m

750 OS-C even with Japan doing 40m has become a big reach with that big OS drop last weekend. Lucky to do 720m 450m dom in doubt 1.15 at best for all other markets China 350m to get to 1,5b

I think the dailies dive. No chance of beating FF7s weekend. If it held well tomorrow then beat FF7s weekend it would clear 1.1b? What do you think for the week? I say 970m.

1b top for the week. 1.7x at best= $275m BCS

well there was talk of a 250m opening and hype about it getting well in to the $300m's its at 190-195m w/o midnight. that's barely above FF7s second day, 184 Monday. and You bet your sweet ass Mariah. Whitney was better before she took to crack btw

Disappoints again. 300m dead FF7 wins China OS WW If china does just 250m it may barely get over 1.4b WW Was front runner for 3rd WW at years end to possibly being 6th.

It has Japan at 17m, its over 21 now isn't it? Maybe that's why midweeks have been large. They are catching up on some numbers perhaps.

Was thinking Thursday would still be inflated being just 2 days after opening day, not enough time to drop down to a normal thursday level like FF7 did, hence the small increase. Math and estimating is fun. waiting til the numbers come out is just reading

I see something like this happening. based on FF7 and TF4. Tough to predict and compare with the different openings and TF4 was summer weekdays TF4 FF7 AOU Day Yuan % +/- Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Total $ Tot Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 398 64 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 583 94 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 750 121 240 240 39 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 887 143 155 -35.4% 395 64 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 1002 162 125 -19.4% 520 84 Fri 87 3.4% 1132 186 142 23.8% 1144 185 132 5.6% 652 105 Sat 130 48.8% 1262 207 226 59.0% 1371 221 200 51.5% 852 137 Sun 118 -9.0% 1379 226 185 -18.1% 1556 251 164 -18.0% 1016 164 Mon 54 -58.33% 1433 235 73 -60.6% 1629 263 Tue 53 -1.85% 1486 244 65 -11.0% 1694 273 Wed 43 -18.87% 1529 251 52 -19.4% 1747 282 Thu 39 -9.30% 1568 257 45 -14.1% 1792 289

1.5b is a lock. Now does Universal push it in some markets to get it to 1.52? DOM could leg out to 15-18m w memorial day weekend and stay in theaters until early summer China made 1.3m more on Monday, now closed Japan should leg out 3-4m more The remainder of OS possibly 20-24m w/o Japan 1.505-1.513 That would be getting close enough for universal to push it

Thinking 1B thru sunday. 165m p/d average W/O 2d the average ticket price should be much higher. Anybody know FF7s approximate % of 2d sales? How much more is a 3d ticket?

Itll get there to people that collect stamps. that don't follow BO. read this thread or post...NO

Much of your statement just shows how fucking clueless you are. I'd explain it to you but it would be a waste of time.