POTUS 2020

OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 850.0 300.0 1150.0 650.0 1800.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 825.0 285.0 1110.0 565.0 1675.0 Ent . 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 MikeTheAvenger 850.0 200.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 No Prisoners 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 803.2 268.8 1067.1 552.4 1619.5 Final submissions included Its looking like 650m~ on Sunday with a 360-380m weekend I think failing 1.5b has a shot if DOM disappoints and Europe crumbles and 1.85 does too if there is an amazing hold and China and US knock it out of the park

Im not going after anyone. He wasn't right and neither was my "possibility". Its somewhere in the middle. FD brought it up again. I thought it was dead. But if wants spar, whatever I'm game.

who invited you into this. I did not start it. I saw his 70% drops and made no initial comment. He initialized as you are now and there was nothing foolish about it. I pointed out there could be a bump and there is one, period. Jealousy? Please. Im retired at an early age from a profession of prediction. Are you? Is he? I don't comment on other peoples posts of prediction as being too this or that. It is what it is. As for me I point out possibilities based on data. No one saw this bump coming. Its not the best case but its something I saw and its happening at a lower level, that's it. Don't need someone predicting so incorrectly a 75% drop that my commentary is way off when his was ridiculously low. Its like someone who has cut off both hands teaching another how to use a table saw. You ask me to stop? He brought it up again as I stayed silent and you bring it up now. Maybe you two can get a room and stop wasting MBps posting crap for a while and it will stop.

Again, one last time, it was an observation of historical data proposing a possible outcome. That's the fun of figuring out a run, not just assuming all will drop 75% and telling other people what to ignore it. You made a comment on my post all the while publishing a prediction of 30-25-18 for the weekend. you are now saying 62-62-43. Thats 100% more (or shall I say 100% wrong (yes you fail)) than your thoughtless prediction and you have the audacity to tell me to chill down? Get a clue. Then again.... Apparently you just did and the statement is genius, the fact that you are clueless. Most truthful thing I heard all week. Thank You

OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 850.0 300.0 1150.0 650.0 1800.0 Quigley 840.0 280.0 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 800.0 285.0 1085.0 565.0 1650.0 Ent 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 GokaiRed 825.0 250.0 1075.0 575.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 550.0 1575.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 No Prisoners 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 799.2 272.6 1066.8 552.5 1619.3 I think I got everyone. 6 more hours to post time. No extreme optimists going for 700m DOM or 2B WW? Korea is coming back like Elvis I still think Europa shits the bed this weekend.

Holiday bump in effect. If it follows Classmate's pattern for the next 3 days as shown in the projection, it will have a $22m weekend and fall way short. 380m~ I was hoping for a better hold the past several days and bigger bump today off of that. It needs to do something sick tomorrow and hold like a mo'fo' next week to get to 390's TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 50.3% 583 94 -23.9% Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 48.8% 750 121 -14.8% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 887 143 -9.2% Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 36.6% 1002 162 -5.6% Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 142 23.8% 63.5% 1144.4 185 -0.5% Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 226 59.0% 74.7% 1370.8 221 6.9% Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 185 -18.1% -46.6% 57.3% 1556.2 251 11.0% Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 1433 235 73 -60.6% -60.5% 35.2% 1629.2 263 11.8% Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 1486 244 64 -11.8% -61.4% 21.5% 1694 273 12.1% Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 1529 251 52 -18.6% -61.8% 21.9% 1746 282 12.3% Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -14.1% -60.9% 15.4% 1791 289 12.4% Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 1610 264 59 31.1% -58.6% 40.5% 1850 298 13.0% Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 1672 274 92 55.1% -59.6% 47.6% 1942 313 14.2% Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 69 -24.6% -62.8% 19.0% 2011 324 14.3% Mon 26 -55.17% -51.9% 1756 288 26 -62.3% -64.4% 0.0% 2037 328 14.1% Tue 28 7.69% -47.2% 1784 293 26 0.0% -59.6% -7.1% 2063 333 13.7% Wed 23 -17.86% -46.5% 1807 296 24 -8.8% -54.8% 3.0% 2086 336 13.6% Thu 18 -21.74% -53.8% 1825 299 31 32.5% -30.2% 74.4% 2118 342 14.1% Fri 16.7 -7.22% -60.2% 1842 302 P 55 75.2% -6.8% 229.3% 2173 350 16.0% Sat 15.5 -7.19% -75.0% 1858 305 P 50 -9.1% -45.4% 222.6% 2223 358 17.7% Sun 25.3 63.23% -56.4% 1883 309 P 35 -30.0% -49.3% 38.3% 2258 364 18.0% April 30 - May 3 Bump 2014 Classmate CA2 April Yuan May Yuan Pr/Day Pre/wk April Yuan Prev/wk May Yuan Pr/day Prev/wk W A30 29 55.1% Wed 7.0 W A30 5.5 96.4% -14% Thu Thu M1 51 75.9% Thu 7.0 -45% Th M1 11 100.0% 57% Fri 22.0 Fri M2 46 -9.8% 109% Fri 5.8 -51% Fri M2 13 18.2% 124% Sat 39.3 Sat M3 32 -30.4% -19% Sat 10.4 53% Sat M3 8 -38.5% -23% Sun 36.5 Sun 13 -59.4% -64% Sun 9.0 -53% Sun closed Mon 21.4 Mon 4.7 -47% Tue 18.7 Tue 2.8 -61% Fri-Sat 61 Fri-Sat 78 27.2% W-Sat 30.2 W-Sat 38 24.2% Fri-Mon 119.2 W-Sat 158 32.6%

im not surprised. Been looking for this for two weeks and pissed off FD over it. The question is will it get more showtimes if its beating the new releases today and how strong can it hold? Was hoping it could be up over 50%+ from yesterday. Not dropping from yesterday or do you mean last thursday?

and we saw it coming

standard drop 60-70% will bring it in at 352m~ the 3 day holiday could boost that considerably, don't know how much w 13% of screens, 2 movies last year bumped over the previous weekend. Could be 360m by sunday. or greater. another 10-12m+ after the weekend

Dropped only 55% OS against TA2s OW. Often a mild drop occurs the following weekend. Should have legs to get close. being that it is a sentimental break out hit. That does sound high for just M-T. Assuming its correct or perhaps there is some Wed numbers in there, I still see this much more Minimums DOM 38m China 34m OS 68m Max DOM 45m CH 45m? depends on the holiday hold OS 80m 1520m is a stretch but possible. Japan will bump OS a few million w Golden Week. If it bounces back to a

I thought PK was funny. Good music with western classical instruments and of course some Bollywood dance. Great film 55% hold yesterday for FF7. The best of the run. Looking for a better hold today being it the night before a holiday. I just don't get how a movie can be the number 1 all time which had to resonate with the general population and yet few want to see it now. Cant just be the showtimes. The PSA would be high if so. Do they just want to see brand new? TF4 managed to hold 50% per week. TF4 FF7 Day Yuan % +/- Last Week Total $ Tot Yuan % +/- Last Week TF4 vs FF7 Total $ Tot % Cume Fri 195 195 32 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 51 - MN Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 347 63.1% 398 64 -37.9% Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 185 -46.7% 50.3% 583 94 -23.9% Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 167 -9.7% 48.8% 750 121 -14.8% Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 137 -18.0% 44.8% 887 143 -9.2% Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 115 -16.1% 36.6% 1002 162 -5.6% Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 142 23.8% 63.5% 1144.4 185 -0.5% Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 226 59.0% 74.7% 1370.8 221 6.9% Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 185 -18.1% -46.6% 57.3% 1556.2 251 11.0% Mon 54 -58.33% -56.1% 1433 235 73 -60.6% -60.5% 35.2% 1629.2 263 11.8% Tue 53 -1.85% -52.8% 1486 244 64 -11.8% -61.4% 21.5% 1694 273 12.1% Wed 43 -18.87% -54.5% 1529 251 52 -18.6% -61.8% 21.9% 1746 282 12.3% Thu 39 -9.30% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -14.1% -60.9% 15.4% 1791 289 12.4% Fri 42 7.69% -51.8% 1610 264 59 31.1% -58.6% 40.5% 1850 298 13.0% Sat 62 47.62% -52.2% 1672 274 92 55.1% -59.6% 47.6% 1942 313 14.2% Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 69 -24.6% -62.8% 19.0% 2011 324 14.3% Mon 26 -55.17% -51.9% 1756 288 26 -62.3% -64.4% 0.0% 2037 328 14.1% Tue 28 7.69% -47.2% 1784 293 26 0.0% -59.6% -7.1% 2063 333 13.7% Wed 23 -17.86% -46.5% 1807 296 24 -8.8% -54.8% 3.0% 2086 336 13.6% Thu 18 -21.74% -53.8% 1825 299

OS-C China OS Dom WW Alucard 900.0 300.0 1200.0 650.0 1850.0 AxelSteal 850.0 300.0 1150.0 650.0 1800.0 Quigley 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 Pypa94 855.0 302.0 1157.0 593.0 1750.0 fmpro 815.0 265.0 1080.0 575.0 1655.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 800.0 285.0 1085.0 565.0 1650.0 Ent 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 Mattw 800.0 300.0 1100.0 525.0 1625.0 picres 750.0 300.0 1050.0 550.0 1600.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 265.0 1075.0 525.0 1600.0 Fake 800.0 250.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 525.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 No Prisoners 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 samsha22 715.0 235.0 950.0 505.0 1455.0 Average 795.0 273.6 1066.4 550.2 1616.5 The average has TA2 losing OS to FF7 but winning WW. A rare feet these days

OS-C China OS Dom WW AxelSteal 850.0 300.0 1150.0 650.0 1800.0 Quigley 1120.0 630.0 1750.0 The Stingray 850.0 300.0 1150.0 500.0 1650.0 Infernus 800.0 285.0 1085.0 565.0 1650.0 Ent 1100.0 550.0 1650.0 AD3S 1000.0 590.0 1590.0 Johnny Storm 810.0 215.0 1025.0 525.0 1550.0 peludo 750.0 275.0 1025.0 525.0 1550.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 Cynosure 750.0 250.0 1000.0 525.0 1525.0 Katch 22 800.0 200.0 1000.0 520.0 1520.0 No Prisoners 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 Interesting, unanimous(besides me) it beats 1B OS and beats TA1 and FF7 WW. All but 2~ say it loses to FF7 in OS, All but 2 believe it it dips in DOM Anyone else before 6pm Thursday EST?(changed time)

Sunday is a holiday as well and with Monday being one too then Sunday evening should be larger than normal, Should be a huge 5 days Here is last year. They either bumped or held tight on the weekend. Could Cindy's Wed number be portending a bump? 1 1 Frozen (2013) Disney $11,037,689 +46.0% 739 -5 $14,936 $143,207,359 8 2 2 Thermae Romae II Toho $5,456,197 +13.5% 434 - $12,572 $19,132,091 2 3 3 Meitantei Conan: Ijigen no sunaipa Toho $4,262,139 -6.4% 341 - $12,499 $26,161,367 3 4 4 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 Sony $3,705,093 -9.8% 765 +2 $4,843 $14,374,880 2 5 5 AIBOU 3 Toei $2,469,677 -8.1% 334 - $7,394 $10,328,418 2 6 6 Crayon Shin-Chan (2014) Toho $2,083,349 +6.3% 329 - $6,332 $10,482,807 3

maybe its just a time of day thing as the tix are being used up going into the evening. y'all are really micromanaging this thing

OS-C China OS Dom WW No Prisoners 725.0 250.0 975.0 500.0 1475.0 Keysersoze 750.0 300.0 1050.0 500.0 1550.0 Infernus 800.0 285.0 1085.0 565.0 1650.0 Deathlife 1010.0 525.0 1535.0 ??? 0.0 0.0 I think everyone agrees that China will do 200 something possibly 300 and who knows with new releases and showtime control exactly how it will turn out. It may be China that takes it over a billion regardless of OS's hold or it will be up to OS if China is at the low end of expectations. Dom disappointing then puts losing to FF7 at risk if OS and or China don't perform well. The 3 key categories in play here are the hotly debated OS -C, since there is so much discussion about it being frontloaded. Will it surpass TA1s 809M? Will it fall short of FF7s 750m est? Total OS, 1B is a lock for some and their question is will it beat FF7s OS, but china may not pull into the high 200s and legs could be short, Does it fail 1B? WW, The extremes: Bad WOM and bad legs hurt OS and DOM plus China does so so. FF7 wins WW. Or WOM is good the naysayers are wrong, legs are fine, DOM bests TA1s, plus whatever china does and it goes into the upper 1B level.

and for WW?

Take a shot, its just for fun and I meant for everyone in the thread to throw some numbers out there. Ill put them in a table

Multiply that x 2.5? Cindy going well over 300k today 330 pm tokyo *1　112105　シンデレラ 　*2　*70593　名探偵コナン２０１５ 業火の… 　*3　*47682　ドラゴンボールＺ 復活の「Ｆ」 　*4　*45091　クレヨンしんちゃん２０１５ … 　*5　*26652　寄生獣 完結編 　*6　*23976　ワイルド・スピード ＳＫＹ … 　*7　*21739　龍三と七人の子分たち

TA was close in markets. 39 of 64 territories. Russia Japan China not included. TA2 Had Mexico Japan China not included as its 3 biggest. BOM said 70% of potential screens were in use for TA1. The ratio of weekend to Monday is what were looking at, but its not clear with amount of 4 and 5 day openers of the two and the Mondays are hard to directly compare. At this point we can stop bickering and just throw out your number, see who is closer in the end while rooting for your outcome along the way. I say 725m OS + China That would be a 10% bump in admissions but a 10% drop in dollars China is a wild card. Gun to my head? I say 250m Ch for 985 OSC place your predictions before midnight Thursday EDT. 3 categories OS -C 725m OS 975m WW 1475m Loses by a hair to FF7

Nice topspin lob back at me So many variables. Makes it all the more interesting. The debate continues

I meant to respond to redfirebird.

Yes it was the beginning of the sequel/franchise era thanks to Jaws, Star Wars, Superman and a few others of the mid -late 70's Fox didn't care about a sequel when Lucas signed on with Star Wars. Gave Lucas the rights. $4b mistake. Im sure sequel potential is the first thing that's talked about during a pitch these days

By the numbers First, In general OS weekdays are proportionately larger than DOM Neo TA1 OS OW 185m. Wed 20m. Wed is typically 25% lower than Mon Monday mite have been 26.5m w/o an evening bump do to a holiday in some markets the next day =14% of the weekend TA2s Monday = 9% The number is not very good

And reboots with sequel after prequel after sequel well put From the good ole days, 1981. When sequels were sparse. Ironically aside from Bond the king of HW sequels, the only other one on the list is the first SH franchise. He started it all. It was 12 years for Batman to come out and 11 and 12 more years for Xmen and Spidey, which triggered the onslaught. I wonder why it took so long? Half of those top ten wouldn't be close today. Bore the shit out of the modern theater goer. I dare you SH fans to do a triple feature on a rainy sunday. On golden Pond, Chariots of Fire and The Four Seasons 1 Raiders of the Lost Ark Par. $212,222,025 1,078 $8,305,823 1,078 6/12 2 On Golden Pond Uni. $119,285,432 1,015 $89,213 2 12/4 3 Superman II WB $108,185,706 1,878 $14,100,523 1,397 6/19 4 Arthur WB $95,461,682 701 $2,719,534 701 7/17 5 Stripes Col. $85,297,000 N/A $6,130,197 1,074 6/26 6 The Cannonball Run Fox $72,179,579 1,692 $11,765,654 1,673 6/19 7 Chariots of Fire Col. $58,972,904 810 $68,907 3 9/25 8 For Your Eyes Only MGM $54,812,802 N/A $6,834,967 952 6/26 9 The Four Seasons Uni. $50,427,646 N/A $4,365,643 623 5/22 10 Time Bandits Emb $42,365,581 821 $6,507,356 821 11/6