RamblinRed
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Posts posted by RamblinRed
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Saw IW last night at 7 with my son at a packed screening. I thought the movie was really good. Dragged in a few places but they did an excellent job trying to juggle so many characters. I liked Thanos alot more than i expected and his motivations make logical sense. Some of the superhero pairings are fantastic. It is a Marvel movie so stay all the way through the end credits.
I will add that I work in Atlanta and recognized many of the scene locations. All the NYC scenes were filmed in Atlanta. I recognized the streets and buildings. Piedmont Park is a stand in for Central Park. I actually walked past one of the scenes on a lunchday walk last summer, recognized it in the movie.
Finally, we had alot of trailers - Darkest Child, Solo, Jurassic World, MI Fallout, Venom, Incredibles 2.
By far the biggest response was for Incredibles 2. There was significant clapping and cheering after that one finished.
Venom and Solo probably got the next biggest responses, though i expect JW to outgross both of them.
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After seeing what TLJ did this winter i'll wait until after the second weekend to even start guessing at grosses. Reviews have been good, but not exceptional, I want to see what the user ratings start to look like. Disney has done a fantastic job of ramping up the buzz for this so a huge opening should be expected (i'll be there at 7 tonight with my son).
I also think we will get a real number from Disney, they have never been one to fudge. They have been very willing in the past to let the numbers be what they are.
I'm also impressed that Disney will hit 1B DOM tomorrow and could hit 2B DOM by the end of June.
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8 minutes ago, Firepower said:
TFA was 8.7-8.8 with the same amount of votes.
TFA wasn't attacked by bots.
I don't think TLJ would have as strong a score as TFA anyways as TFA was more optimistic and fan pleasing, but I don't think the RT score is in anyway legit.
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The RT score is completely unusable at this point -same with Metacritic.
They got at least 60K votes in early. Note that many of these sites have a weighting in their algorithm to overweight early likes/dislikes. So it would take a huge backfill to overcome. Bots could still be attacking now. it is really up to the company's IT department to shut it down if it feels like it is worthwhile to do so.
This is why internet polls are somewhat scary. If you don't have really strong controls in them, they are easy to manipulate.
I doubt RT had any controls in place to prevent a bot attack because frankly who would have thought that anyone would care enough.
Congrats to the Facebook guy who said he created the bot and got help from others to carry out the attack. He got the result he wanted in terms of what the score looks like.
I don't expect this to have TFA legs, but I don't expect it to fall off a cliff either. I expect it to play similar to a movie that has gotten the cinemascore and comtrak scores of similar movies. Those are not structured in a way that can be attacked by bots.
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2 minutes ago, LonePirate said:
The Daddy’s Home 2 vs. Murder on the Orient Express showdown has been very interesting the past few weeks. Looks like DH2 may pull off the win unless it collapses after Christmas.
Regardless of which film wins, this showdown rivals the Minority Report vs. Lilo & Stitch showdown back in 2002. Or has there been a more recent one applicable showdown?
While JW greatly outperformed IO overall, if you followed it just from when IO was released it was like they were joined at the hip.
I followed that for a good part of the summer.
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Nice job of estimates by Disney this weekend.
They were off by 0.0002 - two one-hundreths of a percent
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Date Rank Gross % Change Theaters Per Theater Total Gross Days 2017/12/15 1 $104,684,491 4,232 $24,736 $104,684,491 1 2017/12/16 1 $63,993,205 -39% 4,232 $15,121 $168,677,696 2 2017/12/17 1 $51,331,888 -20% 4,232 $12,129 $220,009,584 3
Coco
2017/12/15 3 $2,251,643 +110% 3,155 $714 $143,037,53924
2017/12/16 3 $4,252,569 +89% 3,155 $1,348 $147,290,10825
2017/12/17 3 $3,445,259 -19% 3,155 $1,092 $150,735,36726
T:R
2017/12/15 7 $784,873 +77% 1,895 $414 $304,178,99343
2017/12/16 -$1,350,766 +72% 1,895 $713 $305,529,75944
2017/12/17 -$997,777 -26% 1,895 $527 $306,527,53645
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First on the JL discussion. I am expecting it to end up close to 235 DOM and 675 WW. Hard to see much more than that. It lost alot of screens (over 800) this weekend and will lose alot more over the next week. Jumanji could be the final nail in the coffin. Coco will end up beating it out WW pretty easily imo, it will be interesting to see if Coco has enough legs to beat it out DOM - could be pretty close.
Fantastic number for TLJ. To me anything over 210 I would consider great. If you take out the previews it is running only 8.5% behind TFA FRI-SUN so far and if the Monday actual is higher (which seems more likely given the estimates) than lower, than that could be even less.
Really nice number for Coco as well who lost alot more screens than Moana did last year.
Right now imo the range for TLJ is about 660 (3.0) to 825 (3.75) - though those are the extremes of the range. With the likely scenario in the 748-770 range (3.4-3.5).
Finally, TLJ's opening weekend WW all but guarantees that Disney is going to go over $6B WW for the second time in 3 years (the third year it was $5.885B). What truly amazes me about that is that they are going to do that with 8 films released in 2017 - one of which was a documentary which grossed 24M WW.
After 3 days TLJ is the 10th highest grossing film DOM and 18th highest grossing WW for 2017.
How close can TLJ get to TFA's December record. It gets 3 more days in December than TFA got including and extra weekend?
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JL lost over 800 theaters last Friday and you have 6,700 theaters for Wednesday and another 8,700 for Friday for new movies. I'm thinking it loses at least 1,000 more theaters this week. I just think its late legs are going to be poor.
I don't see it falling down to DS but it could come pretty close to FB.
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55 minutes ago, a2knet said:
+6% from true Friday. SW7 was +10%. Totally understandable for a sequel.
104.8 + 63.6 + 50.8 (-20%) = 219.2
That's a good guess.
I'm going with 104.8 +63.6 + 54 (-15% - split the difference between R1 and TFA) = 222.4
whatever estimate Disney gives i'm expecting the actual to be a little higher Monday afternoon.
assuming a 220 base 3X gets you to 660, that seems to be about the absolute floor at this point, and pretty unlikely.
Anything over a 3.2X gets you over 700.
R1 multiplier gets you over 750, TFA multiplier gets you over 800.
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46 minutes ago, WilliamK99 said:
Lost in the hype of TLJ opening weekend is JL's drop, do people still believe this can reach 240 million domestic? I think it's going to have problem's getting to 230 especially if it keeps dropping theatres....
I think it should make 230, but 240 is all but dead if it can only pull in 4M this weekend.
It lost alot of theaters this weekend (806 - 23% of its screens). It is likely to lose that much again over Christmas. i thought TLJ was likely going to cut off any late legs for JL and that looks to be what is happening. 235-236 would seem to be about its max if it doesn't recover next week. I've been saying that whatever it had on 12/13 would likely be about 90% of its final gross.
Coco is doing pretty well considering it lost 593 theaters - almost double what Moana lost last yr vs R1. Ferdinand not playing very well helps Coco. Based on what we are seeing so far I think Coco will jump ahead of Ferdinand next weekend. Coco has some potential for nice late legs as it has no Sing type competition to worry about.
I do wonder if the whole 'divisive' thing with TLJ is internet echo chamber noise. An A cinemascore and a 5* comscore suggest the GA is liking the movie. it takes about 7-10 days to truly see what a movie's legs are, so we wait and watch numbers come in and see what the numbers say.
My personal opinion is that anything over 62 on Saturday would be a great number, so if RTH's number ends up being accurate than that would be an amazing number imo. Right now i'm not convinced any of this talk is breaking through to anyone other than the small group of people that really follow movies closely.
RTH's number would mean a likely worst case scenario of 104.8 + 65 + 53 = 223. That's sort of insane.
I'll also add congrats to Disney for going over 2B DOM Saturday and taking over the DOM lead.
Going to be really interesting to see what the studio estimates are tomorrow. Disney has never been one to be really off in a positive direction on estimates.
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I'm just going to sit and wait and see where this is on Sunday and then next week.
Hard to tell much of anything before then.
You have some data that suggests strong WOM, others that do not. Will wait and see.
Saw it last night with son (big SW fan) and wife (not a big star wars fan).
My son absolutely loved it. Thought it was the best Star Wars movie ever.
My wife also liked it alot. Didn't understand parts of it, but was really entertained by it.
I'm a big star wars fan, though I would not consider myself a fanboy. I liked it alot too. It is a beautiful looking movie. Some of the scenes are amazing. I had some quibbles with one or two things, but overall really enjoyed it and will see it again in the theaters over the holidays most likely. Pacing is sometimes an issue but the 2 1/2 hours went by faster for me than I expected. There's more comedic moments in it than I expected.
Has shades of both ESB and RotJ in it.
Both AotC and ESB dropped roughly 35% from their previous movies. That would suggest a total around 610 for TLJ. Earlier this year my expectation was 650-700. Then as we got closer 700-750. Right now don't really have a clue. Have to wait and see how things look a week from now. Might be closer to the 650-700 range, but we'll see.
It's also a film that I could see end up like ESB and be not universally loved when it was released but be more and more liked as time passes (sort of the opposite of TFA). It's not as crowd pleasing and fan servicing as TFA, but like I said, I really enjoyed it.
Anything over 200M would be a strong start imo.
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Update from Fandango on TLJ pre-sales (has topped BatB with 3 days to go for most pre-sales in 2017)
http://pro.boxoffice.com/fandango-star-wars-last-jedi-force-behold-companys-top-pre-seller-2017/
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39 minutes ago, a2knet said:
-72.8% from Sunday. MJ1 was -65.4%, MJ2 was -65.9%, FB was -70%
edit:
FB's legs 4th weekend onward gives JL 244.6m. Safe to say that's the ceiling IMO. 235/240/245 low/real/high end.
This all sounds about right to me. I have best case being 243 and worst case about 235. I'm with you that somewhere close to 240 is the likely landing spot.
Today's number is a 13% behind FB, it had been holding closer to 91-92% on weekdays against FB so if that continues it suggests to me it might fall a little closer to the low end than the high end in its final.
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i expect Coco's actual to increase. They have underestimated by a fair amount its first 2 weekends. That Sunday number looks overly conservative given its first 2 weeks.
Also, with bad weather affecting the SE and NE on Friday and Saturday some business may get pushed to Sunday (and some will be lost).
My local 16 screen had no power yesterday, so no movies.
I'm expecting the Sunday holds to be a little better than expected for most movies.
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Excellent number for Coco, first time it has been ahead of Moana on Friday. Makes it highly likely it outperforms Moana this weekend. If it has another insane Sunday hold it could go 19.5 - 20.
OK for JL. Sort of following how it has been for the last 10-12 days - 90% of FB on weekends. It's current tracking puts it about 242, but that assumes it continues to run 90% of FB. Giving it is running behind in dailies it is likely to leave theaters a little faster causing it to fall a little further off the pace late. Still think right around 240.
With bad weather on the East Coast affecting the ability of people to see movies on Friday and Saturday I wonder if Sunday drops will be smaller as some move movie watching plans to Sunday.
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ABC News was just reporting that up to 70M people could be in the path of the first major East Coast snow storm of the winter.
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weather could be a factor this weekend.
Bad snow in places along the East Coast.
Atlanta (at least from downtown to North Suburbs) is basically out of commission today and probably at least part if not all of tomorrow.
I've got 5 inches of snow at my house right now with another 3 inches projected by morning. Right now i suspect i won't be out of the house until Sunday.
That could also affect early estimates for Friday if it isn't taken into account that parts of the SE are going to have very low turnout today.
Storm moves up the East Coast and hits Philly, NYC and Boston tomorrow.
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Coco 1,533,550 -3% (139K ahead of Moana)
Thor 720,147 -2%
Wonder 1,020,247 +7%
JL's number is 93% of FB's from last year (80K behind)
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Coco is likely to do 18.5 min this weekend i think. it has outperformed Moana 6 of the last 8 days. it loses the olaf short which potentially allows a cinema 1 extra showing per day per screen. It is losing 239 theaters. Should drop 30-33% and i suspect Disney will under estimate Sunday again.
I'm thinking about 9.5 for JL. it is losing 392 theaters, the most of any movie in the Top 10.
Wonder expands by 70 theaters. if it holds well it could give JL a run for second.
Next week the blood bath begins with 7,700 theaters being taken by TLJ and Ferdinand. R1 and Collateral Beauty took 7,100 last year.
And then 5 days later Jumanji opens along with the Greatest Showman and 7 days later Pitch Perfect 3, Downsizing and Father Figures.
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1 hour ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:
JL might get to $250M after all.
Very unlikely barring something unforeseen, right now its dailies would put it at about 242-243, based on how it is playing relative to FB. Probably finishes close to 240 as TLJ is likely to impact it more negatively than R1 impacted FB.
Comparing it to SS and BvS for legs is not really the best comparison because they were released at different times of the year that have different typical legs. JL is in a time period where legs are naturally longer.
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2 minutes ago, a2knet said:
JL's legs won't be far behind Thor3.
320 gives Thor3 2.6x and 240 gives JL 2.55x.
This issue there is that starting at a point 30M less gives you an exponential difference in final result. A 30M difference with a 2.6 multiplier is over 75M in final result.
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JL right in line with what you would expect. It has certainly been consistent since its opening weekend.
Should pull just under 1.1 tomorrow, around 9.5 this weekend, another 2.5 Mon-Wed and be between 214-215 when TLJ hits.
Probably 240 +-2M when all is said and done.
Whoever suggested a Coco vs JL DOM club, that is a fantastic idea as they are likely going to be really close.
If Coco followed Moana the rest of the way it would be looking at about 239, but it has been outpacing it most of the last week. So 240+ is starting to look more likely. If I was forced to make a bet i'd probably choose Coco - it just looks like it is having stronger legs and unlike Moana last yr it doesn't have to deal with Sing, just Ferdinand.
Will be interesting to follow Coco this weekend and see if losing Olaf helps. The fall should be small anyways - 30-33%. But getting rid of Olaf potentially allows cinemas 1 extra showing per day which could give it a little extra boost for the weekend. Also, based on the last 2 weekends i'm going to assume the estimate for Coco on Sunday is at least 1/2M low due to the Sunday holds it has had so far. Disney has been giving pretty standard Sunday drops in its estimates for Coco but the actuals have been much better.
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Will be interesting to see the drops today.
Remember weekend drops this upcoming weekend should be very muted.
JL should do close to 10 (40% drop).
Coco should be somewhere in the 18.5-20 range.
Congrats to WB For getting to 5B WW.
Will be interesting to see if Disney can get to 6B WW by Dec 31. I think it is going to be close. They passed 5B last week. Realistically they can probably get at least 200 WW from Coco and Thor in December (Moana and DS made 135M DOM in December last year, don't know what the INtl total was). That would mean needing 800M from TLJ in December WW, that actually seems doable.
INFINITY WAR WEEKEND THREAD | Actuals ~ 257.698M OW (RECORD) | 106.334M Friday, 82.131M Saturday (RECORD), 69.231M Sunday (RECORD) | 640.9M Worldwide Opening (RECORD) | Read the Rules on the First Post | SALE NOW LIVE
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There is just one and it is after the end of all the credits (which are quite long).