RamblinRed
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Posts posted by RamblinRed
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1 hour ago, killbill said:
But Transformers and Fast X and quite frankly most movies accelerate in its premiere week. Why do you think Flash will not do the same ?
I don't think that is what is being assumed by the posters here.
It will accelerate. The question is not will it accelerate, the question is WHAT is the pace of acceleration.
To this point its acceleration rate has been lower than the movies it is comped to. If that continues the estimates for its opening will continue to drop.
If it accelerates at the same pace as the comparisons then its estimates will remain flat and if it accelerates quicker than it will improve its estimates.
I think why many on here expect it to pace at or behind the comparisons is that is really no event left to juice that rate of acceleration. It has already listed the review embargo, many movies don't do that until the week of - so it doesn't have the same natural event to help boost its rate of growth.
I'm hoping it picks up this week, but it is running out of time to do so.
Unless it ends up being extremely walk-up heavy or have really strong WOM, then it will be difficult for that rate to increase enough.
The reviews were fine, but not something that provided a big boost and comments from people who have seen early previews don't count for much yet. We have to wait to see how the GA (who are largely NOT who is going to EA's/special screenings) react. Their reaction could be very different from the more fanboy types that tend to be the first to see it.
We are also in a place that we haven't really been in since 2019. There are wide releases pretty much every week - which limits how many screens you can get and also limits how much time you have to find an audience.
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Some are putting alot of faith in Margot Robbie. She really hasn't had many hit movies.
Her last $100M+ film was Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, which grossed $142.5M and that had DiCaprio and Pitt in it.
Suicide Squad (2016) is the only film she has been in that grossed over $145M and that was driven by Will Smith.
She's only had a significant role in 4 films that grossed more than $100M.
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8 hours ago, M37 said:
Sure, if I remember. Here's how ATSV turned out, not sure what T-day this was last updated (T-7?), but can see the IM was right in the middle of the range, while the preview came in a softer than the mid-point shown
Mermaid also finished soft on previews, and IM slightly below the mid-point for a $95.6M 3-day OW
Both ATSV and TLM were unique release, and saw lower pace on the final day, and over-indexed at MCT1 (metro areas generally). Flash, like most DC, is expected to the latter, so will just be a question of pace
This is great to go back and look at.
I wonder if the slight underperforms are also partly due to the fact for the first time post-pandemic we are in a place where large openers don't get unlimited screens and no competition. That may lower the ceiling slightly for OW.
Vey interested to see your chart for Flash since we are 1 week out.
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AS mentioned the demos suggest TLM and SV should be able to co-exist pretty well.
What stuck out to me on SV was just 11% being women over 25.
I'll be very interesting to see the demos at the end of the weekend. How much does SV bring out families vs just young, super hero driven males.
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The number for SV is going to be fantastic no matter what.
I think what we are likely to see is the capacity issue for the first time post pandemic.
This is really the first time since pre-pandemic that a movie doesn't have all the runway it could have.
With more movies out now and more coming, it limits how many screens any movie can have. Even Mario didn't really have this issue as it really had little around it.
That is likely going to put a cap on what a movie can do opening weekend, but it also makes it more likely that a movie with strong WOM is going to have really strong runs.
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11 hours ago, excel1 said:
Theme of summer 2023: us all accepting that is not not 2019 any more. $100m opening weekend is really, really good in 2023. Something looking to 'break out' is looking at $100m ballpark. It is what it is.
I think we all know that FLASH will do more $7.6m previews and $67m that Black Adam hits. Doubling that, though, is a very heavy life. $115m is a reasonable true high end for opening weekend, with 90-100m more likely. Flash is doing pretty well compared to all non Marvel films. $135m would be a truly epic breakout though.
I think some of this is simply needing to adjust to the fact that for the first time since the pandemic we are in a period where newcomers won't have an open runway with unlimited screens.
Until this month a new tentpole could open without opposition for multiple weeks and without having to worry about how many screens it could be on.
It seems like the upside is likely to be cut some for most of these new movies not because of audiences rejecting them, but because audiences have to decide how many movies they want to see and how many screens they can have.
With a major new release pretty much every week and multiple in some weeks, new movies simply are going to be on fewer screens.
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1 hour ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:
People aren't really mentioning the 65/35 gender gap but i think theres a clue here.
Some of the MCU success was that compared to other iterations of superhero franchises it managed universal pull.
65/35 is overt "boy movie" territory perceptually.
That might be a Gunn thing in that he has excellent reception but the appeal here may be among a *slighty* more niche market or it may be that the wider culture aroumd the MCU (including perhaps that it simply is less cool) is convalescing.
Either way, that 65/35 is an eye openee IMO.
OS seems like the potential soother here. Seems like better performances there may salve the DOM narrative.
Agree that 700m ww is the benchmark here for okay v disappointment. 750 would be good/solid and 800m a big success at this point. The billion references (mostly not on here but on youtube and the like) were always silly and never were going to help this film.
That's an interesting split. It makes me wonder if the animal experimentation scenes are having a negative impact on female interest in the movie.
Glad to see this picked up in the last week though and that audience reaction has been strong so far.
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Deadline says the $17.5 included $400K from Wednesday night marathon showings, so Preview number is really closer to $17.1.
Basically the same Preview as GotG2.
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7 minutes ago, ZackM said:The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: D0 Final5/3/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold Total 57 57 5,513 17,116 32.21% % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ # of Showings 0 0 0 1 1 ATP $46.29 Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-1 daysLast Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago Showings Added 39 163 142 5 7 Seats Added 4,709 15,602 18,074 265 679 Seats Sold 26,043 15,962 15,307 10,424 7,044 5/3/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold Total 431 7,283 210,330 1,166,703 18.03% % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ # of Showings 1 12 88 297 560 ATP $16.76 Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps Ant-Man: Quantumania Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted D0 T-0 T-1 $15.7 $15.4 $16.9 $17.4 $16.8 $17.3 T-2 $15.2 $14.9 $16.4 $17.0 $16.7 $17.1 T-3 $14.8 $14.5 $16.4 $16.9 $16.6 $17.0 T-4 $14.3 $14.0 $16.1 $16.7 $16.0 $16.4 T-5 $13.8 $13.6 $15.9 $16.4 $15.5 $15.9 T-6 $13.5 $13.4 $15.8 $16.3 $15.2 $15.7 T-7 $13.1 $13.0 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.4 T-8 $13.0 $12.8 $15.5 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3 T-9 $12.9 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.8 $15.3 T-10 $13.0 $12.9 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2 T-11 $12.9 $12.8 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2 T-12 $12.8 $12.7 $15.5 $16.1 $14.8 $15.2 T-13 $12.8 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3 T-14 $12.8 $12.7 $15.7 $16.3 $15.1 $15.6 T-15 $12.8 $12.7 $15.9 $16.5 $15.2 $15.7 T-16 $12.8 $12.7 $16.0 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8 T-17 $12.8 $12.6 $15.9 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8 Good jump yesterday. I feel like BP is the best comp. Hoping for $18M Previews.
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2 hours ago, screambaby said:
Am I wrong or are these estimates under the tracking here?
Not really. They are on the conservative end of things, but not really out of range of what has been seen in the tracking data.
I think they are just trying to set it up so that if it gets to the 120-125M range they can say it was an over performance.
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FWIW BOP's official estimate is $115 with a $105-$125 range.
Something else to keep in mind as we close in on the weekend. There are marathon showings tonight and those will be included in the Thursday preview number. Don't know if that will have any impact on the OW multiplier but something to keep in the back of the mind,
Looking at what everyone is posting i'm hoping for 18, but I could see it at 17-17.5 if the growth rate slows a little.
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44 minutes ago, M37 said:
As mentioned previously, I have a family event this week, so my big last update before we get actual numbers. Preview chart below through, and can see the big curve upwards since reviews & reactions on T-7, but appears to be leveling off a bit in last round of updates (Alpha update pending, which I expect to land between 185-190K)
To my eye, given the big late surge by BPWF and especially Thor that sets a high bar, I think we're heading towards a preview of around $17M (which is coincidentally what GOTG2 made for its preview Thursday). But still room to level off to as low as $16M, or pace enough to still hit $18M+
As for the weekend overall, the daily pattern and resulting IM still looks murky. Just by gut feeling about audience and lesser expected fan rush, think it at least hits a 6x, and the data mostly backs that up, but Friday pre-sale numbers are not great as compared to Thursday, while Saturday looks relatively strong. (Maybe a Cinco de Mayo effect limiting Friday sales?). Expecting around $80M through Saturday, give or take a few million in either direction, with Sunday dependent on the path it takes to get to that total (and WOM)
Its been an interesting 10 days, huh?
The course correction did indeed happen, but with 2 days left, the starting value was so low that it doesn't appear to have been enough to jump all the way up to the $120-$130M range, though probably at least topping $100M for OW (though enough uncertainty that I wouldn't use the L word just yet).
Throw a dart, find the answer
Love the dart chart! Great way to visually represent the higher and lower odds of preview and OW grosses.
The chart does make it look like it is levelling off just a little from a few days ago.
I'm hoping for something like $18/$120 but that may be alot to ask based on the current data.
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Finally a kick in the pants for GotG3. Hopefully that continues these last few days.
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I'm really only focused on looking at the comps for 3 movies that others are providing now that the reviews have dropped.
Wakanda, MoM and Thor.
Wakanda feels like the best comp based on the reviews (likely final film for a group of characters, MCU), Wakanda's reviews are a little better than GotG3. If you take the avg of those 3 right now you get $15.5 (with Wakanda at $15.34). I expect that will rise during this week and we will have to see if the reviews continue to power some upward movement or if it is only a temporary bump.
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30 minutes ago, ZackM said:The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-8 days4/25/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold Total 57 57 4,301 17,116 25.13% % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ # of Showings 0 0 0 0 0 ATP $46.32 Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 daysLast Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago Showings Added 13 10 0 2 5 Seats Added 1,224 1,082 0 216 847 Seats Sold 3,777 3,181 3,061 2,049 2,119 4/25/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold Total 431 6,909 118,059 1,124,037 10.50% % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ # of Showings 0 5 28 118 243 ATP $17.54 Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps Ant-Man: Quantumania Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted D0 T-0 T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 $12.9 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.8 $15.3 T-10 $13.0 $12.9 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2 T-11 $12.9 $12.8 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2 T-12 $12.8 $12.7 $15.5 $16.1 $14.8 $15.2 T-13 $12.8 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3 T-14 $12.8 $12.7 $15.7 $16.3 $15.1 $15.6 T-15 $12.8 $12.7 $15.9 $16.5 $15.2 $15.7 T-16 $12.8 $12.7 $16.0 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8 T-17 $12.8 $12.6 $15.9 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8 I keep waiting to see some significant upward movement, but it looks like if that is to happen it likely occurs after the review embargo lifts on Friday (assuming the reviews are strong). It's frustrating to see that it is arguably in a worse position today than 8 days ago.
Every day I look at this and just think, it is running out of days to improve.
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1 hour ago, ZackM said:The IMAX Guardians of the Galaxy Marathon
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-10 days4/23/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold Total 57 57 4,183 17,116 24.44% % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ # of Showings 0 0 0 0 0 ATP $46.33 Guardians of the Galaxy: Volume 3
Alpha Chain
Premiere Night Seat Report: T-11 daysLast Day 2 Days Ago 3 Days Ago 4 Days Ago 5 Days Ago Showings Added 0 2 5 3 2 Seats Added 0 216 847 321 194 Seats Sold 3,061 2,049 2,119 1,831 1,560 4/23/2023 Theaters Showings Seats Sold Total Seats Pct. Sold Total 431 6,886 111,101 1,121,731 12.85% % of Seats Sold 100% 90%+ 80%+ 70%+ 60%+ # of Showings 0 4 26 109 219 ATP $17.63 Guardians of the Galaxy Volume 3 Comps Ant-Man: Quantumania Black Panther: WF Thor: Love & Thunder Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted Unweighted Weighted D0 T-0 T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 T-11 $12.9 $12.8 $15.6 $16.2 $14.7 $15.2 T-12 $12.8 $12.7 $15.5 $16.1 $14.8 $15.2 T-13 $12.8 $12.7 $15.6 $16.1 $14.9 $15.3 T-14 $12.8 $12.7 $15.7 $16.3 $15.1 $15.6 T-15 $12.8 $12.7 $15.9 $16.5 $15.2 $15.7 T-16 $12.8 $12.7 $16.0 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8 T-17 $12.8 $12.6 $15.9 $16.5 $15.3 $15.8 I really like this format for the comps. Makes it easy to see if things are getting better, worse or just sort of stable.
So in the last week GotG3 has basically improved just slightly against AM3, and declined slightly against WF and a little bigger drop against Thor. It needs to jump a little just to get back to the comps from a week ago - definitely not ideal.
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8 hours ago, kayumanggi said:
I think one good thing this has going for it is that it has two weeks free of competition. FAST X is also not tracking very well so...
The issue with Fast X is less about how well that movie will do and more that it will take PLF/IMAX away.
Almost every movie we have seen recently had taken a big hit when it loses those since they account for a large percentage of the grosses.
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Just fantastic for Mario.
Wow for AM3. 76% drop to $291K. Lost its theaters. So probably finishes around $213.5M. Just barely squeaked over a 2X multiplier.
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14 hours ago, Mickiland16 said:
Not sure if this is the right place to post about this but via Jeff Sneider:
On a side note, if this true and given this is Disney after all, Grogu cinematic debut would be inevitable I guess (toys=$) maybe jedi academy with Rey post The Rise of Skywalker?
Besides dropping the Ashoka trailer today, Lucasfilm announced 3 Star Wars films at Star Wars Celebration Europe.
One is helmed by James Mangold dealing with the 'Dawn of the Jedi'.
One is helmed by Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy with Daisy Ridley as Rey, post TRoS, rebuilding the Jedi.
One is helmed by Dave Filoni and is designed to close out all the Mandoverso plots (Mandolorian, Ashoka, Boba Fett, etc).
IMO,
Mangold's movie probably has the most runway in terms of creating what he wants
Obaid-Chinoy has the hardest movie to create. Based on the response to TRoS and some of the dissension over Rey, this has a heavy lift to overcome.
Filoni probably has the most good will among Star Wars fans with his work on Clone Wars, Rebels and Mandolorian. He will be given the benefit of the doubt with the fanbase.
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1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said:
With most SB season over, think AM3 is still more likely to miss AM2 than beat
I already thought it would come up short, after this weekend it will definitely come up short of AM3.
The question now is whether it can cross $215. Going to need about 40% Weekly drops from here on out to get there and not really sure it can perform at that level.
At least it will cross a 2X multiplier. Probably end up close to a 2.02.
Going drop out of the Top 10 next weekend.
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So far almost all the actuals have come in slightly lower than estimates.
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Really happy to see JW4 doing well.
Just ick for AM3 with the Friday jump, not even 100%. So what, probably just over 2MM for the weekend for it.
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1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:
depending upon actuals that is about a 44% Wk-over_wk drop for CB, 32% for JR and 48% for AM.
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Good holds for CB and JR, around 68% drops.
just over 75% drop from AM.
73% drop for AWOW
The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
in Numbers and Data
Posted
So my take right now from what the trackers are showing is that Flash has stopped the bleeding, but to this point it isn't growing at a rate to improve itself vs its comps. Just sort of holding steady.
Is that a fair take?