RamblinRed
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Posts posted by RamblinRed
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Great start for Creed.
AM:Q had just the 5th best per theater avg on Friday behind Creed, DS, CB, and JR.
With the more mid-size cinemas (5-8 screens), it could be down to 1 small screen or gone completely by end of March.
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Solid start for Creed. So likely something in the mid to upper $40's for it this weekend?
Not a bad drop for AM:Q on Thur.
The 2-4 spots this weekend could be an interesting race with AM:Q, CB, and DS.
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3 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:
And there it is, CB ahead of AM:Q.
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3 hours ago, M37 said:
Around $1.5M Wed and $1.4M Thur is what I had mentally penciled in after Monday's numbers fwiw
AMWQ is going to be flirting with a 60% drop for weekend 3, though it may have just enough left to stay under at like $13-$14M
I've said as much before, but I think the more fan-heavy audience has already checked out due to WOM, leaving mostly GA, which is why its been dropping quickly and weekdays are particularly low. But could also mean PLF share is lower than normal, and losing those to Creed III won't be as harsh of an impact as some other titles in their 3rd week
You could also have the opposite of this for the same reason.
Only the Marvel fans are super interested so they see it the opening weekend and then there simply is not enough interest from the GA to keep it afloat, so it basically dies very quickly as there is no real demand for it and the GA basically says I don't really need to see this, maybe I will catch it on D+.
I agree completely that whether it stabilizes comes down to the GA and how much do they want to see this and how much does bad WOM negatively impact that.
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1 hour ago, GOGODanca said:
Thor 4 had summer holidays
DS2 had summer to leg out near the end
Eternals had an empty month
Ant-Man 3 should continue to see these massive drops as there is a big release every single week
I think it is going to end up hovering very close to the 2x line ($212.2M). If it gets over it won't be by much.
I think it may stabilize a little, but i'm expecting pretty significant drops every week in March.
It's going to take a big hit this weekend with Creed coming out and taking IMAX and PLF.
Next weekend will have Scream - which looks like could be an overperformer.
Then you have Shazam, which I expect to underperform, but it is the most direct competition in terms of audience that AM:Q will face and then finally you have Wick, which is likely to open large and kill off whatever is left of AM:Q. By March 26th I think its run it basically over.
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8 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:
$1.5m for AM3 would be back to where we originally thought it would land -- still bad, but better than the early $1.25m last night.
That would keep it exactly in line with what Unchartered did last year. Those drops would suggest a $1.5M Wed and $1.2M Thur.
I'm still thinking a weekend around $12.5M, around a 60% drop. Somewhere around $186.5M through Sunday.
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4 minutes ago, MrPink said:
Assuming that Ant-Man isn't going to drop quite as hard on Wed/Thurs with Uncharted running into the Batman throughout this week last year with its early screenings. Still, this is down like 64% from last week.
That makes sense, though a 58-60% drop for the weekend would not surprise me at all.
Creed III feels like a movie that could overperform, especially if the reviews continue to be really strong.
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So pretty typical rise for a Tuesday. About 45%. Uncharted was 50% last year.
Uncharted then dropped 40% on Wed and 20% on Thursday.
Similar percentages for AM:Q would give you a 1.5 Wed and 1.2 Thur.
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51 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
Lower than the "cult hit" 50 shades of grey (1,846,390)
FSoG only made $35M after its second Monday.
With Creed coming in and taking its IMAX and most of the Premium screens I would expect another big fall this weekend. Creed's reviews so far are really strong (90% positive overall and 89% among Top critics).
Could it fall something like 60%? That would be around $12.8M. FSoG made $10.6M its third weekend.
AM&W did a $16.5M 3rd weekend, I imagine it will come in well below that.
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I don't think the GA in general has any idea about 'Phases'. That is mainly just for the fanboys and super-cinema types.
For the GA it is just a string of Marvel movies that appear to be less well liked in general than earlier Marvel movies (based on Cinemascore)
The issue for Marvel movies right now is the same one that afflicts Star Wars, DCEU and Potterverse. It isn't enough for them to be just profitable. Marvel and Disney rely on these movies to be extremely profitable so they can use that money to make more movies. As the production costs continue to increase and revenue decreases it squeezes those profits where it no longer makes financial sense to be churning out new movies at the same rate.
Marvel is not in the same place as those 3 IP's, but it is trending in that direction. Marvel needs to take some time and think about what it is doing and what changes they may need to make so they don't become like those other IP's.
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2 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:
friday increases will be soft. I am surprised by the deadline projection but they suck at this for sure.
What kind if Friday increase are you expecting for AM:Q?
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According to the-numbers Ant-Man Wednesday is
$3,859,533.
That is better than $3.8, but still not good.
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I am very interested now to see how AM:Q stabilizes and what its final WW take is.
Given its $200M budget could this be the first Marvel movie to take a loss? It feels like a sub $550M WW is getting pretty likely.
Heck BvS with its horrible WoM and sub 2X DOM multiplier still made $873M WW. But it was so toxic that it killed a franchise for some time.
Will AM:Q numbers be such that Marvel has to actually take a serious look at what they are doing across all media and make some tough decisions on whether there are significant changes that need to be made?
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8 minutes ago, M37 said:
That Wed number is so low that I have to wonder if there isn’t some weather (or Ash Wed?) effect baked in there. Or maybe it is just Quorum/review/lack of holiday effect finally catching up, finding it’s natural - and much lower - baseline level moving forward
Capt Marvel had a 7.9x second weekend of its Wed, and that was with a +8% Thur, while MoM was 6.78x (off a -10% Thur). Thinking ~7.5x Thur here, so if it drops further …I thought about weather as well. Alot of really nasty weather in the US right now - though, most of it is outside of the major population centers. Might be worth 100-200K though. Even accounting for that it would still be a poor number.
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5 minutes ago, IronJimbo & Sheldon's Son said:
Are some schools still off in north america? That's higher than 2 tuesdays ago
Multiple schools districts here in Atlanta are on Winter Break this week, and even the ones that are not mostly had Monday and Tuesday off.
With Monday being a Federal Holiday alot of schools districts use that as part of a break.
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1 hour ago, Issac Newton said:
$2M off. It won't even cross Demon Slayer ($519M)
Original Ant-Man move made $519 WW, I guess the question now is whether this one goes over or under that.
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18 minutes ago, Bruce said:
You Guys need to notice that Avatar is the only film which increase from yesterday
This is very true, but is also splitting hairs a little.
Of the major holdovers A2 is +2, WF is -2, VN is -4.
That doesn't look statistically significant to me. Just noise around an average.
I think the +2 is a solid number.
But it is still up in the air about legs and we likely won't have an answer on that for at least another week.
At this point i'd say it still looks like a blockbuster sequel performing like a blockbuster sequel - but maybe it could be more.
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1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:
How is the weather forecast? By when the storm will be gone? We can't keep blaming storm for the terrible numbers across and hope for recovery later on. More often than not, latter means never...... Cinema is already in bad shape, they can't take this weather shit anymore.
The cold front will be through all areas by tonight but the deep freeze lasts through the weekend.
The Buffalo metro area has instituted a driving ban this afternoon due to how bad the weather is there right now.
I'd expect some recovery on Sunday, but really expect significant improvement on Monday.
I live north of Atlanta and our normal highs this time of year are around 55 F and lows around 35 F. We went from 48 F at midnight to around 12 F this morning and are not forecasted to get above freezing (32 F, 0 C) until lunchtime on Monday.
The big issue over the weekend is the cold. The winds associated with this cold front are extreme and expected to last through Saturday night. Wind chills are a good 20-30 degrees lower than the actual air temperature making it dangerous to be outside for any significant period of time.
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At least for holdovers i'm interested to see if Friday's numbers are down from Thursday. Today is the day the storm really impacts the population centers on the East Coast and with possible flash freezes starting around mid-day it may make it very hard for people to get around by middle to late afternoon.
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I think this update for Box Office Pro is probably the most accurate thing I've seen concerning this weekend. I'm hoping for a roughly $50M 3-day, $75M 4-day for A2. If we assume A2 Thursday is around 14-15M then is it about $23-24M behind R1 going into the weekend. If the $75 4-day is accurate than it is roughly $45M behind R1 by end of day Monday. Then we will have to see how the box office performs the rest of that week (Monday after a Christmas weekend is the biggest day for the movies and then the box office declines every day until Friday).
In 2016 box office was up +12.9% on Monday after Christmas day and then Tues -22,2%, Wed -16.1%, Thur -4.5%, Fri +14.3%, Sat +4%, Sun - 25.7%, Mon -4.7%.
FWIW R1 that week went Sun (Christmas Day) +69% - i'd expect A2 to jump larger, Mon +24.1%, Tues -33%, Wed -20%, Thur -7.2%, Fri +9%, Sat -19.7%, Sun +14.5%, Mon -5%, Tues -60.6%.
Thursday Update: With a major winter storm sweeping across the country and impacting holiday travel plans for many, prior box office forecasts leading into the weekend are likely no longer as relevant with moviegoing expected to be impacted as well.
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17 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:
Why thu is flat from wed?
Weather. Personally I think I underestimated how much impact this winter storm is going to have. It is not a huge snow event, but the cold air and wind (tropical storm to Hurricane force winds for much of the US) is going to make for a miserable weekend.
The cold air and winds are just hitting the main east coast population centers today. I live outside Atlanta and many businesses and attractions are closed today due to the cold. We currently have about 100,000 customers in Georgia without power. As the front moves through the NE Corridor today I expect we will see alot of power outages in the NE.
I'm sort of expecting to see drops both today and tomorrow for the box office. Modest recovery Sunday (most of the country will still be in a deep freeze on Sunday) and then bigger numbers on Monday.
I'd consider $14-14.5M for A2 to be a good number. I was hoping it could stay flat yesterday. With the weather I expect Friday and Saturday to be worse than Thursday for the movie business.
Also, keep in mind that while the focus has been more on the impacts to the NE and midwest (and somewhat to the South), there are also significant impacts for the Pacific Northwest where temperatures are well below normal (and below freezing) and there have been areas there with freezing issues.
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Currently you have a Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score of 29%, with a Top Critic ratio of 9/16 (36%).
Metacritic currently has Crawdads at 45. (slightly better than JWD 38 but worse than both Minions and T:L&T at 57).
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Will be interesting to see how close T:R and T:L&T end up. L&T has a big lead right now but T:R was released in the fall and may start outperforming it on weekends as soon as this weekend and then it will have Thanksgiving and the early Holiday season grosses to start making things close.
One thing I have come to think is that while the level of competition is important, that just how good or bad WoM is trumps even competition. If WoM is truly mediocre or worse for L&T then it won't matter much that there isn't alot of new competition, grosses will still fall quickly. It just means fewer people go to the movies overall, not that they choose one over another.
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I agree that JWD is likely to have a 50%+ drop against Thor.
It will be coming off an inflated July 4th weekend number and is likely to lose alot of screens to Thor (I expect Thor to take more screens from JWD than TGM).
June has been a somewhat disappointing month compared to pre-summer thoughts. Obviously TGM is a huge win, but JWD has been a disappointment relative to expectations and LY was a complete flop. Nothing else has really broken out. Decent but not great numbers.
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3/3 - 3/5 Weekend Thread | Creed III gets the biggest franchise opening and MGM opening ever with 58.7M. #AintMan drops 61% for 12.5M. Jonathan Majors still getting paid fat stacks
in Numbers and Data
Posted
The actuals are going to have to increase more than $300K for AM:Q to get under 60%. Disney is usually pretty good with their estimates, so unless Sunday ends up being alot stronger than they are forecasting it may be hard to find that amount.