PenguinHyphy
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Posts posted by PenguinHyphy
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20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Remember this had 4pm previews. The only movie close to that is Venom which started at 5pm and had an 8x multi
Venom opened a holiday weekend, though, so its gross for Sunday has some cushioning. What are some other movies with a 4pm previews Thursday? Do you believe that its multiple is going to be 8.0?
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Previews and opening day to preview gross ratio and opening weekend to preview gross ratio
Aquaman - $9,000,000/3.081/7.542
Batman V Superman - $27,700,000/2.944/5.993
Justice League - $13,000,000/2.959/7.219
Man of Steel - $9,000,000/4.890/12.958
Suicide Squad - $20,500,000/3.166/6.521
Wonder Woman - $11,000,000/3.477/9.386
Ant-Man - $6,400,000/3.539/8.941
Ant-Man and The Wasp - $11,500,000/2.933/6.592
Spider-Man: Homecoming - $15,400,000/3.297/7.599
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse - $3,500,000/3.619/10.104
Assuming that Shazam follows Aquaman, it will have a $18,177,900 opening day and a $44,497,800 opening weekend, which puts it right about on tracking. Aquaman's prescreening percentage to its Thursday previews (34%) is lower than Shazam's (36%), though. That suggests that Shazam might be a bit more front loaded by fanboys.
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1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:
Decided to get my presales from almost the same time (okay this is almost 2 hours earlier)...compared to the Disney flick which underperfomed in my area, Shazam is doing better tonight...compared to a super, it's not...here's to Shazam acting like a Disney live action family movie vs a supers movie - c'mon, a girl can dream:)...
1st local - Cinemark - 116/800 2d seats (7pms are best), 8/175 3d seats (shouldn't have bothered) for 124/975 - so, that's sucky for a super, but in good news, more than Dumbo ended the night at (and 82 more than Dumbo had now)...
2nd local - Regal - 149/375 2d seats (7pm is almost sold out), and 42/70 3d seats for 191/445 - this is also sucky for a super here, but has also outsold Dumbo for the night, and 117 more than Dumbo had now...
So, is this a story of the family super breaking out over the weekend, or is it giving the big red flag to a subpar weekend? Well, I said last weekend in the casino that I had Shazam over Dumbo, and these numbers make me stick with that. I'm also still staying in my $60M+ camp that I predicted weeks ago, BUT I'm not gonna go any higher...I'd say Aquaman's number is a likely ceiling and I'd expect $5-$10M less for the weekend (with the early previews keeping the BO over the $60M point)...
I am totally not understanding assertions that Shazam is going to play similar to a "family" movie, not a superhero movie. Almost all superhero movies play to families even though they are not explicitly juvenile. Aquaman, Black Panther, Infinity War etcetera all have played great with families, but they still perform to the patterns of superhero movies.
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18 minutes ago, Nova said:
Thank you! When I have the time I like to post my theater’s numbers. It’s not often but I do like to do it. Or at least report on how my theater is doing. I did it for Captain Marvel. I did it for Dumbo and I am doing it for Shazam.
I mean i maybe coming across as negative because I’ve talked about the potential that Shazam has but I always make it clear that Shazam is a success regardless of its box office because it’s actually good! Anything it makes from the box office is the cherry on top for it at this point. And yes my personal expectations for the movie (I had it around $70M+ OW) is why I’m kinda bummed about how it’s doing at my theater and what it’s tracking at BUT again things can change throughout the weekend or even during its actual run. That’s how box office works lol It’s somewhat predictable but as always with numbers there’s always the probability that what we expect doesn’t happen
You are not required to do that in a thread that is supposed to be about tracking just to placate the fanboys. There is nothing wrong with your post since it is in the right place and their not being able to contextualize budget and gross is not anyone else's problem. The problem is that moderators are allowing fanboying into the thread, which is not supposed to be the case within a thread about numbers.
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3 minutes ago, mulderfox said:
Sorry for my part then. I just saw a lot of negativity from you everywhere on this. It hasn't even opened yet. It has 3 weeks to rake in some good cash
Reporting on the sales of a movie is not being negative. He is bringing up the current sales because it is a TRACKING thread, and you trying to label him as a troll because of that is presumptuous. They have fanboy threads if you want to just speak about how much you are into the movie and how great you believe that its word of mouth will be, but no one else is required to do that, especially in a thread about tracking, just to placate you.
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3 hours ago, TalismanRing said:
I don't have AQP's Thur numbers and only have my guesstimate for Wed but it looks to have fallen well behind AQP for now. Horror though is a very late seller so we should know better late afternoon
A Quiet Place (Mon) 2,177 (Tues) 4,003 (Wed) 10,665
A Quiet Place is not a great comparison to Pet Semetary.
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30 minutes ago, pepsa said:
In total, OW won't come close to that at all.
Damn
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1 hour ago, imbruglia said:
it might struggle to pass 1m.
In its entirety or are you referring to the movie's opening?
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6 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:
If we start looking at the raw numbers only, ignoring the multiple then we can say that BVS was more beloved than several SH movies that grossed less than this just because it got a huge $330m, right?
This is a box office forum. What the hell are you even talking about? Can a moderator do something with this troll already?
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37 minutes ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:
Dude, I'm not denying US' impressive success, all that I'm saying is that a 3.0x multiple isn't something hard to be archived by an original And acclaimed Horror movie, something that I thought was pretty obvious? And yet, people here are acting like I'm claiming that anything below GO's multiple is a failure for this movie.
A 3.0 multiplier for a movie opening at $70,000,000 still equates to a higher gross than a 3.85 multiplier for a movie that opens at $50,000,000. Movies that open lower having a better multiplier than a movie that opened higher is what happens the majority of the time, so what is so supposed to be so special about that? We are staring at you crazy because a movie having a better multiplier does not mean shit when your movie is going to hit $200,000,000 at the domestic box office while the others did not. Plenty have 3.0 multipliers, but how many have hit $200,000,000 at the domestic box office? Your entire crusade about multipliers is outrageous when grosses are what ultimately matter. It will be like someone bringing up Wonder Woman having a 4.0+ multiplier when bringing up Black Panther, even though Black Panther has a higher gross.
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4 minutes ago, cax16 said:
The only difference with Shazam is it had the 3.3m of demand already burned, why does that mean in the end for this weekend? I think most people are having a hard time trying to figure that out cause there’s no real good comps for Shazam.
Aquaman is the perfect comparison to it for that very reason. It is a DC origin movie that has Amazon pre sales. Aquaman also opened around that number with Amazon shows, right? No, Shazam is not opening in December, but Shazam is not opening in the same season as the other movies to which posters are comparing it to either. I am not understanding the hesitation with December either. If the argument is that December suppresses openings but gives better legs, Shazam oughta have much better pre sales than Aquaman, right? The Monday numbers are not out yet, but there is nothing to suggest that it is extreme to compare it to Aquaman. Aquaman actually opened pretty much at its tracking numbers, and that appears to be where Shazam is right now. Posters appear to be refuting the Aquaman comparisons because they have been propagating the $70,000,000+ or $80,000,000+ notions, but Shazam's opening is not going to be terrible if it opens where industry projections suggest.
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14 minutes ago, Lucasmessi12 said:
I'm sure Shazam will make at least $60m OW, these Fandango pre sales comps means nothing (US is another example), and I remember very well in December 2018 in Aquaman's debut week, Mary Poppins was going to do more than Aquaman because they were selling pretty much the same, and that DC movies were a lot more presales heavy than Disney live actions and blah blah and What happened? these predictions all failed!
And Lodrnox and Matthew are obvious trolls accounts (most likely from old members of this site, I doubt they are new). Just ignore what they say.
I do not get that example. Us' pre sales pointed at $70,000,000+, and that is where it opened. The pre sales for Captain Marvel pointed to $150,000,000+, and that is where it opened. The pre sales for Shazam appear to be more of a Glass situation, where the numbers suggest way lower than many posters are expecting. It is still early, but even if the movie opens to $45,000,000+, that is still not terrible. The numbers that posters have been baselessly throwing around are what has those numbers appearing to be terrible. Tracking has been around those numbers, so it is not going to be an underperformance if it opens there.
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3 hours ago, Matthew said:
I hope Shazam turns out to be walk up friendly like A quiet place ☺️☺️☺️
That appears to be unlikely since it is based upon a really well established property and has $3,300,000 dollars from Amazon screenings already.
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5 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:
Welp, might as well post Shazam's results before its final release week.
Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday Shazam! 859 848 1,031 1,124 841 817 1,798 11 days 10 days 9 days 8 days 7 days 6 days 5 days Past 7 Days:
11% of Captain Marvel (17.1M)
152% of Dumbo (68.4M)
115% of Dragon 3 (63.4M)
165% of Lego 2 (56.2M)
Day 18-5
119% of Dumbo (53.5M)
Day 23-5
12% of Captain Marvel (18.7M)
108% of Dragon 3 (59.6M)
181% of Lego 2 (61.8M)
So this is an interesting conundrum we have here. Out of all the 2019 comps I have available (I go up to Glass), should we use Captain Marvel, a superhero movie based on an established property, or use PG movies like Dumbo/Dragon/Lego, since Shazam is marketing itself as being more kid-friendly? In both cases, very different stories are being told. As always, it's best to wait until we get the results for pre-release Monday, so that we have more comps to base itself off of.
How is it comparing to Aquaman in pre sales?
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19 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:
Polarizing doesn’t equal to bad legs, there’s several examples of movies that got polarizing responses from audiences and still managed to get good to great multiples thanks to curiosity about the ending/plot twist: (Interstellar, Gone Girl, Inception all shared the same CINEMASCORE as US and they all managed to get a multiple above 4.0x).
There’s no excuses, a multiple below 3.0x for an acclaimed original Horror movie isn’t good by any means, imo.
Multipliers do not mean anything when you open way lower. Us is going to gross $200,000,000+ at the domestic box office while those movies did not. Having a better multiplier means nothing. In addition, Us is playing the same as 300, which received a 3.0 multiplier, so why are you being so dramatic?
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3 hours ago, filmlover said:
I have Shazam pegged at $60M. Buzz definitely feels a lot quieter than when Wonder Woman and Aquaman (which obviously would've opened much higher at any other time of the year than right before Christmas) but should still pull solid numbers.
Pet Sematary will land in the mid-$20M area while The Best of Enemies will be DOA.
The Evil Dead remake opened to $25,000,000 on the same weekend, which makes that really appear to be the perfect comparison for it.
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3 hours ago, terrestrial said:
But that is not an 4 quadrant GA movie (beside, I'd say mostly into, with the occasional side-step)
You did a post with chart per year copied into with color coding certain numbers. I tried to use the same method in the answer, tried to shorten the quote, so the post might end less than a kilometer long, but somehow that did not wok - it grew instead with epmty places not removieable. Was very strange.
Us is going to outgross most "4 quadrant" tentpoles this year.
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12 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:
Except it's Friday was more front loaded in comparison to previews than Halloween's (which did 7.7/33)
It is not going to have a 40% drop on Sunday, though. None of the top openers in March have that because there are various spring break times throughout the month. October has virtually no days off, so openers there have bigger Sunday drops on average.
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1 hour ago, Blaze Heatnix said:
So, it seems that US might get a good CinemaScore, based on deadline's reports ( Current definite recommend is 58%). Is that good?
A Quiet Place had a 60% and ended up with a B+ Cinemascore while Glass had a 47% and ended up with a B Cinemascore.
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23 minutes ago, baumer said:
I'm sure most people realize this but keep in mind..... Jordan peele's name now will generate a massive Rush. Especially this being his follow-up to get out. So don't be surprised if the internal multiplier is not huge for this weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if it drops somewhat significantly on Saturday.
He is popular, but I do not see why he would generate more of a rush with fans than other directors such as Christopher Nolan or Steven Spielberg, who also have marquee value and do not have generally front loaded projects.
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2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
Thanks for all the numbers...if I was picking a "best" comp, I do like the Venom or Deadpool 2 ones the best, just b/c this does have more of a presale factor than regular horror AND we've been adding more and more reserved seating the last few months (so more and more reason to buy, thus skewing into a more presale heavy movie than a regular horror from last year)...
I'm gonna stay with $60M+ just b/c we've seen a lot of presale heaviness lately that didn't quite lead those openers to open as high as we thought...better to be wildly happy after the weekend than disappointed, but I'm rooting for this film:)...
Now, last weekend, we did finally have 2 films beat tracking by $5M (which was an enormous % for their expected OW), so I'm not as worried about tracking being pretty low for this movie...since tracking isn't perfect:)...(last week, BOP had Us at $48M and Deadline has it this week at $45-$50M)...
That is not the truth. Tracking, which is out about a month prior and based upon a numbers of things, has been off with some movies this year; however, the pre sales on Fandango have correctly predicted big openings. For instance, the Fandango pre sales for Glass the week of release actually pointed to the movie going nowhere near the $70,000,000 tracking number. The same applies to that Lego movie, but people just kept bringing up tracking, which is not the same as pre sales. Us, is in a situation similar to Captain Marvel where its Fandango pre sales suggest that it is going to open way higher than the tracking numbers. It is not a franchise either, so it is even more impressive that Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Captain Marvel, Incredibles 2 and Avengers: Infinity War are the only movies with higher Wednesday Fandango numbers the release week according to the data.
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2 hours ago, EconomySize said:
So, I have the preview numbers and prior sales for Us together, and it looks like I was mostly right. The gap between Halloween and Us last week was mostly related to a catch up in sales, since Us had more pre-sold in the weeks prior. As of the monday before release the cumulative numbers look like:
Us Halloween Ratio OW Proj OW Total Tickets 25386 27307 0.929652 76.221 70.85899
The Thursday Preview numbers now look like this
Us Halloween Ratio Previews Proj Prev. Thursday Previews 8964 8927 1.004145 7.7 7.731914 These are both plus projections on the numbers coming out last week, and give some backing to Us lining up for a probable 60+ opening, which is outstanding - and way above the initial tracking numbers.
If you look at the ratio of tickets sold in presale between Us and Halloween it looks like Us has sold 92% of the tickets Halloween did up to the same point. However, Us has actually outsold Halloween in Thursday previews. To measure front-loadedness (if that's a word), we can figure out what the Thursday preview sales would have been if it had only sold as many tickets as Us by applying the presales ratio to the thursday preview tickets (.929 * 8927 = 8299). Once that is calculated, you can look at the ratio between Us's actual Thursday preview tickets, and the Halloween's expected Thursday previews, and we find that 8964/8299 = 1.08. So from this estimation Us looks like it may be 8% more frontloaded than Halloween.
I have not done this analysis for a large enough set of movies, but the numbers make sense to me, and provide a data driven forecast for the relative OW/PG ratio of Us.
I am stating that if Us has a higher or similar Thursday previews than Halloween, then the movie oughta have a higher opening weekend than Halloween because one is a fanboy property while the other is an original property, which are historically more prone to having walk up business. If Us really does have eight million or more in Thursday previews, then it will probably going to have an opening Friday bigger than Halloween's $33,000,000 because there is not any precedent of an original horror movie's Thursday night previews being Halloween's 24% or more of the opening Friday. According to Deadline, 90%+ of Get Out's business was from walk ups, so I really do not see the rationale of Us being more front-loaded than fanboy/franchise properties, which are historically more front-loaded than original properties.
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1 hour ago, el sid said:
Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:
Us: 128/15 minutes – yesterday it were 64/15 (so here too ca. on par with Halloween which had 71/15 on Monday at that time), up exactly 100% from yesterday; Halloween had on Tuesday at that time 112/15, Glass 31/15 and Happy Death Day 2U 17/15 (and that was a Wednesday release).
And Pulse today 10:35-10:49 EST:
Us: 197/15 minutes – yesterday it were 122/15, up 62%; Glass (where I have no Tuesday numbers) had 156/15 on Wednesday at that time and Happy Death Day 2U on Tuesday at that time 17/15. Even if Us manages it to only jump 50% from Tuesday to Wednesday (and most movies rather double their sales) it would have twice the presale numbers of Glass (40.3M OW)...
→ at both counting times today huge numbers for Us. So far it's indeed looking like 80M OW are reachable with the only problem that Us is probably a bit more frontloaded than Glass or Halloween but I'm not sure. But therefor its WOM could be better (at least compared to the WOM of Glass) and who says that its presales will slow down from now on...Why would Us be more front-loaded than two franchise movies when it is not one? In addition, its selling more in pre-sales currently when it has been available for pre-sale since Christmas suggests otherwise when it oughta be selling less because of the moving being available for pre-sale for three months. Although Jordan Peele is extremely popular, the movie is still an original property, which generally equates to being based around general moviegoers, so the theories about it having similar sales patterns to fanboy movies is perplexing.
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4 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:
Back from the dentist. Now let's look at the other stuff.
Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Us 1,070 1,063 1,438 11 days 10 days 9 days Shazam Early 0 0 12,509 10 days Dumbo 777 685 442 18 days 17 days 16 days Shazam! 0 0 918 23 days Us
Days 14-9
136% of Glass (54.7M using the 3-Day, 63.1M using the 4-Day)
Dumbo
Days 18-16
144% of Dragon 3 (79.3M)
Cumulative
48% of Dragon 3 (26.3M) (Note Dragon 3 had 17 days more presales)
Shazam
Day 23
59% of Captain Marvel (90.9M)
First Day of Presales
15% of Captain Marvel (23.5M)
So yeah, there's a lot to unpack here.
-Us is continuing to kill it here, gaining on Glass by significant margins. Considering Glass is a more fan-driven movie (although Get Out/Peele fans might hurt my argument here), this is doing excellently.
-Dumbo's coming back down to earth more as presales slow down a touch, but still going strong.
-Shazam is way too early to call, with two extremes depending on where you're going. But getting close to 1,000 is a great start either way.
I wish I could use the Dragon 3 Fandango show to compare with the Shazam Fandango show, but the problem comes with showtimes. Shazam has two, while Dragon had 1. That makes comparing the two exceedingly difficult. Ah well.
That Us number is not too far off from Halloween's nine-days-before-release number if I remember correctly. Us being an original movie that is not based upon anything else suggests that it oughta be less pre-sale based and perform better with walk-up movie goers, which means that we might be anticipating another huge opening weekend. Those numbers are impressive, and the analysts appear to be right about March being the beginning of this year's resurgence.
Weekend Thread | Actuals - The Other Captain Marvel 53.5 | The Secret Death of Pets 24.5 | Pachyderm Joker 18.2 | The Just-Us League 13.8 | Formerly Known as Ms. Marvel 12.4
in Numbers and Data
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Shazam is following Aquaman to a tee as all common sense has been suggesting for a while now. A $18,000,000 Friday puts it at about $44,500,000 opening weekend. The misconceptions about it playing similar to Pixar movies or not "regular" superhero movies appear to finally be cleared up because Shazam apparently plays best at night, which is not comparable to "family" movies in the slightest.