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KP1025

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    Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

    Never really developed great late legs to push it to close to 600M DOM. Remarkable run regardless. Selfishly glad something like Incredibles 2 (even without inflation) comfortably remains the #1 DOM grosser for an animated movie.

     

    A shame Mario's run will end before it got to even take advantage of the summer. I have to admit I didn't see it fizzling out quite so fast after such a monstrous start (it's looking to gross about 1/3 of what Minions 2 did on its 11th weekend), but this summer is incredibly crowded. 

    Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, 21C said:

    So...
    Let's say around 55 million opening weekend domestic.
    75 million overseas.

    55 x 2.3 legs= 126 million.
    75 x 2.5 legs (trying to account for Asia really liking the film for some reason) = 187 million.

    313 worldwide.

    Jesus christ.

     

    Thought TLM OS was already pretty bad, but Flash looks like it's going lower even with more support from China (not great either but at least not abysmal like TLM). And Flash won't even have good domestic numbers like TLM to fall back on. It rightfully deserves to be called a major bomb.

    Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by KP1025

    7 minutes ago, AJG said:


    Strange World flopped on Disney+ too. This Disney+ theory is nonsense.

     

    Strange World very likely would have flopped pre Disney+ too given its audience scores. But something like Encanto would have done far better at the box office without it being advertised as dropping on Disney+ just a month after.

    • Like 1

    Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Disney should advertise at minimum a 6-month theatrical exclusivity for their major films to disincentivize subscribers (particularly families) from just waiting to watch at home for free. Until they do, I'm afraid none of their animated films will come close to realizing their potential at the box office. 

    • Like 9

    Father’s Day/Juneteenth Weekend Thread | Flash implodes with 55M, Elemental bombs with 29M, holdovers hold atrociously | Theaters are dead, streaming is dead. Everything is dead really.

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    1 minute ago, filmlover said:

    This reminds me how we never got a sequel to Big Hero 6 considering Wreck-It Ralph got one (and a Zootopia 2 is in development). Though if Incredibles could end up waiting nearly 15 years to produce a sequel and seem like an event instead of untimely so could this I guess.

     

    Same with Tangled, though both it and BH6 got their own TV show instead.

    MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - DEAD RECKONING | 395.4M overseas | 567.5M worldwide

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Austin said:

    Apparently Japan loves Cruise and TGM did like double what you are predicting so idk.

     

    They do, but TGM was a unique phenomenon whereas the last few MI films have been pretty stable in their performance. I'm sure MI7 will get a boost but probably not as big as some people are expecting. Even a 50% increase over MI6 in Yen gives it just $50 million under the current ER.

    • Like 1

    The Boy and the Heron | Hayao Miyazaki | Studio Ghibli | GKIDS | NA Debut at TIFF | WINNER OF THE OSCAR FOR BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    17 minutes ago, cannastop said:

    that's a big assumption given that we don't know hardly anything about this movie.

     

    Also there was Ponyo, which did ¥15.5 billion...

     

    You're right, I was operating under a best case scenario where the film is a return to form for GA appeal rather than something that skews too old like The Wind Rises or a bit too young like Ponyo. That number is also factoring in a finale boost, as everyone knows this is certainly the last film Miyazaki will ever make. 

    The Boy and the Heron | Hayao Miyazaki | Studio Ghibli | GKIDS | NA Debut at TIFF | WINNER OF THE OSCAR FOR BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

    I mean - only 2 miyazaki films actually outgrossed OPRed, and if you don't include the re-release, I think even Mononoke falls below, leaving only Spirited Away above it, so I don't see why it would be a foregone conclusion for it to go that high

     

    That said I have a good feeling about this one

     

    It just feels like there's been a resurgence in anime popularity in recent years with several franchises hitting record peaks far above what was the norm the previous decade or two. When Miyazaki retired previously, no other anime film besides those he directed had even crossed  ¥10 billion. Now, it's not uncommon to have multiple a year across various franchises/directors/studios.

    The Boy and the Heron | Hayao Miyazaki | Studio Ghibli | GKIDS | NA Debut at TIFF | WINNER OF THE OSCAR FOR BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, cannastop said:

    I think anything between ¥10-20 billion is reasonable to expect.

     

    But since it's Miyazaki you never know...


    And Japan is known for having movie with unexpectedly long legs.

     

    I don't see why this couldn't beat One Piece Red in Japan (¥19.7 billion) as long as it's more universally appealing than something like The Wind Rises. As the final Miyazaki film (for real this time), I think it will bring in that older demographic that rarely goes to theaters. 

    • Like 1

    Weekend Thread | Transformers $25.6M FRI

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Mulder said:

    Love how many people will make wild box office guesses and not fess up to being wrong.

     

    "The Little Mermaid will be another Solo and drop 65%"-Said during its near-100 million OW, its passed Solo both Domestically and Worldwide this weekend, also hasn't been acknowledged as wrong. Amazing.

     

    I remember that one because it was so amusingly pessimistic and borderline impossible as you said. TLM is already past the floor of their DOM prediction and almost past the ceiling of their WW prediction after only 2 weeks.

     

    Quote

    Yeah, I see another Solo A Star Wars Story kind of trajectory for TLM. I kown its weird to compare this movie to Star Wars but both are Disney movies opening on memorial day weekend.

     

    220-260 Dom; 130-160 OS; 350-420 WW Total.

     

    Probably a decent Memorial OW, but the second weekend Spiderverse is going after the same family audience and will take away many PLF screens from TLM, witch will cause a 60 to 65 percent drop. International numbers looks really bad.

     

    • Like 4
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