XXR vs XXR
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Posts posted by XXR vs XXR
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9 minutes ago, shadowcaptainD said:
I saw posts on twitter of the taylor swift Era trailer being shown before movies in Chinese cinemas?
Anyone know if its confirmed for release in China? That would be huge since China isn't getting concerts as far as I know
As of right now it's not confirmed for release anywhere but the US, Canada and Mexico.
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6 minutes ago, robertman2 said:
My sister and cousin were talking about trying to tickets to this during a family gathering. Gonna have a big OW for sure lol
Is this AMC only?
Nope. AMC is the main distributor but any theater that agrees to terms can have it. All the major/mid-major ones already do.
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3 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:
Those are the films previews. OD to previews comp isn’t ideal but I didn’t track those films for Friday.
I should probably edit the format to make that more clear
Ahh ok. The "FRIDAY" next to the numbers made me thinking you were comping against their true OD.
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11 minutes ago, HummingLemon said:
So it's clear all of the Taylor fans booked their tickets instantly and now it's slowing down.
As expected. If there's no traditional marketing campaign, there will be a (relatively) major lull in ticket sales unless Taylor herself goes on the promotional train. Given her history, that typical means 1 post a week at most and as I previously mentioned she may not even care too much about promoting this movie with 1989 TV coming out 2 weeks later.-
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@TheFlatLannister What do the TET OD comps look like against those same films previews?
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@keysersoze123 When you did your last Barbie previews MTC1 run, how late in the evening was it? Feels like that may be a good final comp against Eras Tour OD if it was late enough, because there shouldn't have been much walkup after the run.
FWIW, Eras Tour is already 78% ahead of that number revenue wise (as of 15 hours ago). Barbie previews ended up being about $20.5M not including EA, so even if you discount TET by 15% for the currently heavy MTC1 skew that should still puts it at ~$30-32M already for Friday OD.
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6 minutes ago, Flip said:
I just can't see why people who aren't Swift fans would want to see a concert film out of curiosity
I mean, this seems like the perfect event to check out what she's all about or if you're just a "oh yea I know some of her songs" type person it's much more financially feasible to pay $25 for ticket to this than $500 for her concert.
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Ehh, I don't want this thread to devolve into a battle of who was "bigger" between the biggest musicians in history, because there's no good way to quantify things and more importantly her career and this film have nothing to do with MJ, The Beatles or anyone else.
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53 minutes ago, katnisscinnaplex said:
Unless this starts adding earlier shows, I'd put the range at 30m-35m for Friday.
That just seems really low given where sales are at already and adjusting for ATP. Correct me if I’m wrong but your unadjusted T-1 MCU comps are already at ~$25M? -
8 minutes ago, vafrow said:
Are we confident there won't be a traditional promotional campaign? I can see why they wouldn't do one now, but, it would make sense to ramp things up in the final two weeks at least.
Not confident, no. They may not originally planned a traditional marketing campaign but now that it looks like this could be a top 10 all time opening they may try to pick it up soon.-
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As a side note to growth patterns and sales rates, keep in mind that this will not likely have any kind of standard promotion (i.e commercials) so there will be a bit of a boom and bust cycle as Taylor promotes the film intermittently. Perhaps they’ll have a more mainstream marketing attack in the final week or two to give the GA an idea of what’s happening.
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@vafrow My expectation is to expect most everyone to at least be singing. There will be some level of dancing I’m sure but it’ll be severally muted compared to the actual concert.
And to clarify, this is her full concert. No documentary footage intertwined (except maybe at the beginning as a lead in.)
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It appears that our page has made it into the realm of TS Twitter, as I’ve now seen us referenced in several tweets 😅
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It's important to remember that while ATP is much higher, it's also losing essentially a full day vs other major films. I'm more interested in the FSS numbers of major blockbusters as targets than including previews. From that perspective, I think it could go as high as #2 all-time.
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28 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:
Aren’t people getting a teensy but carried away here with the “it’s taking down Endgame OW” takes? The pre-sales are undeniably impressive so far, but to come close to Endgame it has to cross over to people who aren’t fans of Swift, which I find hard to believe is going to happen to THAT extent.
I’m genuinely baffled by this woman’s popularity in the US and I’m very much not the target audience, but I’m happy for theatres who will get a much needed lifeline.
I don’t think it’s going to beat Endgame (my current target is about $180M) but I just want to clarify that the film wouldn’t need to cross out of her fandom and fandom-adjacent family to do so. Based on available data, she averages about 21-22 million unique listeners each day across all platforms domestically. Over 50 million people tried to buy tickets to her domestic dates of her actual tour. Over 60 million people domestically listen to at least 1 song of hers a month.She would “only” need to sell about 17 million tickets OW to dethrone Endgame. She has the fanbase to do it, if enough decide they’re interested in this particular endeavor.
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50 minutes ago, Relevation said:
NOW, all it has to do to beat Endgame is hit 90.28% capacity, and to hit my projected $300M OW, it has to hit a remarkably doable 75.84% capacity.
Endgame's FSS was just over $297M sooooo..... 👀
SpoilerIt's not possible but it's fun to speculate.
SpoilerOr am I underestimating her and IT IS POSSIBLE!
SpoilerNah it's not possible.
Spoiler
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4 minutes ago, Relevation said:
The $21 listed price on ticketing sites does include sales tax, which I think is the reason that went up from the $19.89 reported ticket price. I don’t think sales tax actually counts when it comes to box office reporting, but I could be wrong.
$19.89 and $13.13 are minimums for standard shows, but several places are charging more and of course PLF is even higher. Like I mentioned earlier, I paid $25.89 before taxes/fees for my IMAX tickets.
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Idk yet just how big this will open but FTR.....
Biggest DOM OW - Previews- Avengers: Endgame - $297,115,007
- Avengers: Infinity War - $218,698,183
- Spider-Man: No Way Home - $210,138,569
- Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $190,966,675
- Jurassic World - $190,306,270
- Marvel's The Avengers - $188,738,708
- Black Panther - $176,803,951
- Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $175,009,584
- The Lion King (2019) - $168,770,759
- The Incredibles 2 - $164,187,905
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@Relevation I think your ATP's are low. Based on the ATP averages Keyser and Inception are showing for their respective tracking areas, it looks like it could be pushing $21 and since pricing is locked, there shouldn't be much variance as we move forward in the sales cycle.
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4 minutes ago, YM! said:
So Swift is easily going to be the biggest movie of the October to December season right?
Domestically, yes.
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Just now, Brainbug said:
Im just catching up right now to this.
Ehm ... when did this happen? Why are we taking about Endgame-level grosses? Last time i checked i thought cinema was over for this year?
It was, until Taylor Swift happened....
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7 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
I concur. Friday ATP would be like 30% higher at MTC1 and about 50% higher at MTC2(compared to thursday previews). Saturday PS is about 50% higher at MTC1 and 80-90% higher at MTC2. I think smaller chains could be even more ridiculous like Megaplex or Emagine etc which are only in small markets. Shows are also expanding over the weekend. MTC1 has ~8300 while MTC2 has 6046 shows. While Friday is at 60% capacity at MTC1, saturday has sold < 25%. So there is huge potential for growth. Let us see how the demand grows to the release date and what does TS do up the ante.
Knowing her history, she will do something to prop this up even higher unless of course her and the team are solely focused on 1989 TV which drops 2 weeks after the film comes out.
The more I think about it, the more I'm starting to believe this COULD challenge for at least the 2nd biggest DOM OW ever. It would likely get there with about the same amount of tickets sold as Barbie OW. I think it all just comes down to how hard she promotes to and pushes through her fanbase.-
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I know everyone is aware that ATP will be higher than normal, but something important to remember about this entire weekend is that there is ZERO discounted prices anywhere. No matinee prices, no specials or deals. Whatever the price is at 7PM on Friday, it'll be the same at 10AM on Saturday or Sunday.
Friday's ATP vs an equivalent 2023 blockbuster's Thursday ATP may end up only being 30-40% higher on average, but Saturday/Sunday could literally have double the ATP in some chains. Just keep that in mind when you're prognosticating ticket sales vs actual box office.-
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1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:
The studios that passed on the film , I am willing to bet Disney is one of them
I don't think it was ever an option for anyone to pass on it. I believe her and her team avoided the studios on purpose due to the strike.
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The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Those TET showtimes before the 13th are definitely a mistake. There’s no indication anywhere else that they’re doing any kind of early access (and it really wouldn’t make sense given what they’re trying to achieve with the “event” feel).