XXR vs XXR
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Posts posted by XXR vs XXR
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4 minutes ago, cannastop said:
Wish launched sales but there are still some major AMC and Regal locations not selling tickets yet... will they be up in due time?
By default, yes.
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@Porthos once we got the previews number, did you adjust to account for that ATP against your comps? If not, what would your Friday comps look like?
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30 minutes ago, Jonwo said:
How much is filming a concert film, I imagine it's at best $20m so Taylor Swift is already swimming in cash.
$10-20M is the reported number. Variety estimated a few days ago that Taylor had already made $60M from pre-sales alone.
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11 minutes ago, Dephira said:
1989 is my least favorite Taylor album (although Style and Blank Space are spectacular) so between the two of us we have a hot take for sure
As a whole though I wouldn’t call it a hot take. Individual tastes may vary but it’s inarguably her most popular album. The TV could challenge Midnights 1st week numbers, which is just further indicative of how big/loved the original was. -
In a vacuum, $2.8M is fairly weak but when you consider that’s about 130K tickets sold in less than 24 hours for a highly frontloaded concert preview it’s not bad at all.
It’s also funny to think that probably 50%+ of those tickets where purchased by people who already had tickets.
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I never imagined Porthos would be so anti-theater and Taylor Swift
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For the Eras Tour we're probably looking at something like....
$3-5M Thursday
$32-38M Friday
$29-35M Saturday
$20-25M Sunday
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20 minutes ago, DAJK said:
Wow October 11, 1989 sure was a popular day in the maternity ward for BOT members. Happy birthday all you silly (very real, definitely not bot or spam accounts) geese! Hope it's a good one!
I think you should tag everyone who is having a birthday today 😮💨-
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Truthfully I wouldn’t put much effort into Thursday at this point. My assumption is it’ll be around 20% of Friday, so we’re talking about $6-8M perhaps?
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5 minutes ago, M37 said:
I'm seeing some 6PM and on showings pop up for Thursday already (not MTC1 nor PLF fwiw), but nothing earlier than 6pm on Friday (yet)
Based on her tweet, as well as AMC’s, I don’t imagine any of the main theater companies slates will populate until tomorrow morning.
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Oh Taycapitalist you sly devil 👿
I am extremely curious to see how much she can move the needle to Thursday on one days notice.
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2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:
100% this. 50 OW will be the new “norm” for a cbm that isn’t building some degree of “event film” interest, with plenty potential for lower for the ones people outright don’t care about. We are officially done with “you get a 100+ OW and you get a 100+ OW AND YOU GET A 100+ OW!!” like it’s easy Oprah money in this genre.
Apart from the MCU, when was this ever a common thing for comic book films? Sure some films fit that target but the majority did not. And as for the MCU itself, even if The Marvels doesn’t get there they still had the last 7 movies hit over $100M OW.-
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This film may be the death of me but I’m taking all of you down as well!
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I’m sure I’ve done enough “reminding” at this point that this is the tracking thread and not a discussion thread. Take your predictions and commentary elsewhere. No more warnings on this subject.
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1 hour ago, Valonqar said:
So is this going to be the Barbie of concert movies? I'm also confused about OW numbers here. Are they WW or dom only (some look way too big for dom)?
DOM opening probably in the $85-105M range. No clue about worldwide but my gut instinct is about 60-70% more than DOM so $135-175M maybe? -
24 minutes ago, Hilts said:
Random question which may have minimal impact on box office and sorry if it's already been mentioned/discussed to death.
Any thoughts on RT score here? Or any embargo dates? Not really sure how reviewing this type of movie works and if there are special features or new content that would even warrant an embargo.
Had a look at a few prior concert movies just now and to my (perhaps naïve) surprise all had fresh scores, except the Jonas Brothers...
Just thinking aloud a red tomato may help walkups a bit for any non-swifties still on the fence but appreciate given the genre it would probably not make much difference ultimately.
I can’t imagine any RT score mattering, even a high one, and since the details of the concerts are already widely known amongst her community there shouldn’t be any kind of embargo.-
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30 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:
The Marvels Presales are starting tomorrow
MTC1 opening day presales for past 4 movies
1) Guardians 3 - 68696 // 2nd day morning number
2) Antman - ~88.5k
3) Wakanda - 110K
4) Thor 4 - 136.5
What would be a good target. Eternals sold something in low 30s. That is the base minimum. Anything close to Guardians is good. If its above that its terrific.
45-50K is my estimate-
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Not seeing anything at this point that indicates sales will start ramping up. Probably looking at $85-105M OW which is phenomenal for a concert film (3x the current record) but a bit of a let down from day one pre-sales being 50% bigger than No Way Home 🤣
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3 hours ago, Arlborn said:
To any Swifties out there, why is there so little advertising of it in the week leading up to its release even as we watch the pace not picking up? Any theories? It just feels like money left on the table.
I don't think she's overly invested in advertising it and is content with it making what it's going to make.
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What's the word on Weibo about Eras Tour (movie) coming to China?
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43 minutes ago, Jsmitty said:
Totally agree that a 200M OW has no chance at this stage. Hard to know even a range though as we haven’t seen this hype in the genre before. I’m currently sitting my guess in the 125-140 OW window. What would you say the odds are of a >200M domestic total are considering the likely massive week over week drops?
2nd weekend presales are relatively strong, and since it's only playing on the weekends it might not be quite as massive of a drop as some expect. Right now my current expectations are something like 120-45-22-13 for the first four weekends.
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11 minutes ago, Relevation said:
$200M probably not happening but I still think the casual Tay fans could order their tickets late (due to no refunds) and fuel it to a bigger opening than Barbie
$140-170M feels like the range to me
I think if that was going to happen we would start seeing the acceleration at this point. While some people will wait until the last minute to coalesce plans, most won’t. Especially not in her fandom. This isn’t to say there won’t be any walkups or ramp up in the final week, just that as a % of what has already sold it will look pretty weak.-
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It’s Me. Hi. I’m The Eras Tour Weekend Thread | 39M Friday
in Numbers and Data
Posted
I had a feeling Queen Taylor might be able to pull RTH out of his slumber