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XXR vs XXR

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Posts posted by XXR vs XXR

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

    FNAF tracking has showed me to never underestimate James Cameron u/RelevationAnimations

     

    He was COMPLETELY correct about The Flash and Barbie. And it looks like he's also correct about FNAF. Seems to be good at predicting mega-hits and complete bombs, as well as distinguishing between astroturfing vs genuine excitement.

     

    I don't think I've ever seen a Stan account for a forum user but....

     

    How's that $300M OW for Eras looking? 

    • Like 3
    • Haha 3

    Renaissance | Beyonce Concert Movie | Releasing December 1st

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, harry713 said:

    Comparing tour gross to concert film box office isn't easy, but I'll give it a go. 

     

    The Ren world tour grossed nearly 600m. Numbers for Eras so-far aren't available, but informed estimates have it ending with roughly 1.5b. So, when all is said and done, Bey's tour will gross about 40% of what Taylor's will.

     

    Another factor here is the number of shows. Ren had 56, or 38.4% of Eras 146 shows. It's interesting, in terms of per-show grosses, they should be about identical. 

     

    Now, this doesn't mean Beyonce could have simply doubled/tripled her shows and had the same demand for her pricy tickets on a larger scale, so we can't assume if they release in the same number of theaters they would haver the same demand there.

     

    I actually think somewhere between 35-40% of Eras is a good scale to look at it from. If Eras opens to 125-150m (to be rather conservative at this point) I can see Ren opening anywhere between 45m - 60m, with the potential to open as high as 75m if everything aligns just right. At roughly $25 atp that would "only" be 3m tickets. 


    While not as easy to prognosticate, you would have to look more at concert demand than actual ticket sales to gauge the theatrical release because unlike with concerts, there won’t be a restricted supply on availability.

     

    We will see how things play out but I don’t see a way for Renaissance to make 35-40% of Eras even with higher prices. Maybe 25%.

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

    Beyonce Day 2 of sales is at 55.9% of Taylor Swift Day 2 of sales. Not home, so I can’t check my sheets to make sure I have the right days comped

     

    Yea that's what I mean. You've got Renaissance @ 94 tickets sold for day 2 which would imply 168 for Eras but your post from Sept 1st was 921 tickets sold just between 8AM and 4PM. From your evening 8/31 to evening 9/1 update was nearly 2000 tickets sold. 
     

     

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, Inceptionzq said:

    Beyonce Renaissance Tour Denver Thursday

    AMC Westminster 24

    Total 110 1203 9.14%

    AMC Highlands Ranch 24

    Total 42 1258 3.34%

     

    SEATS SOLD SOLD PAST DAY TOTAL SEATS PERCENT SOLD THEATERS SHOWINGS
    560 94 11026 5.08% 12 51

     

    0.559 Taylor Swift Day 2

     

    I’m a bit confused by this comp. What does “0.559 Taylor Swift Day 2” mean? 

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Jake4 said:

    in numbers, what do you think her first day presale is?


    Renaissance first day previews + OD ticket sales at MTC1 = 115K.
     

    If we comp that against  Eras first day OD + Saturday (since Friday is playing like previews) which was 695K, then adjust it upwards by 24% for higher ATP we get first day presales at MTC1 in the $5-6M range vs $26M for Eras. 
     

    Obviously the comp would be more accurate if we had the first 2 weekends worth of sales for both but this should work fairly well. 

    • Like 5

    The Box Office Buzz, Tracking, and Pre-Sale Thread

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Hilts said:

     

    Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé OK
     
    Thursday - showings starting 7pm
     
    Day Theatres Showings Sellouts Daily Sold Total Sold Total Seats % Sold
    T-60 17 57 0 225 225 12,529 1.80%

     

    We are at T-60 (!) so I don't have any relevant comps, and I haven't been keeping track of how many hours each have been on sale on Day 1.

     

    I have referenced my initial day 1 track for TET above (which by the way feels like a lifetime ago ha).

     

    Renaissance has ~60% of the showings and ~75% total seats at the same point. You can see by the sold amount that there is just no comparison.

     

    FWIW, this has had a very similar start to FNAF in terms of amount sold and seat/showing allocations, take that as you will.


    Can you do Friday also for Renaissance? Feels like a better idea to comp them combined vs Eras Friday.

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