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Everything posted by XXR vs XXR
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I think that’s the boat we’re all in at this point. I’m confident this will at least be an “A” Cinemascore in the US, but I need SK to tell me if we could be looking at an A+
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Cool cool but let’s keep that info in here for now 👀
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Should be imminent assuming there was indeed 8AM shows.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
If these comps don't improve, I'll skew you!! -
I'll be here until it hits 15M tickets sold!
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Yes, even with that being the case. If the ROI isn't there, neither he nor Disney will be committing $300M+ dollars to A4. With that being said, I expect that the market will be there even if it doesn't hit some of the loftier expectations being thrown about.
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Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Looking at the 10 biggest OS markets, here is what I see as the minimum in each location.... China - $375M South Korea - $85M United Kingdom - $80M Japan - $75M France - $75M Germany - $60M Mexico - $55M India - $55M Brazil - $45M Australia - $45M These 10 markets alone are good for $950M at a minimum. My rough estimate for the remaining OS markets is $380M at a minimum That gives us at least $1.33B OS with merely average holiday legs. Anyone who would find this disappointing or lackluster needs to re-evaluate their expectations. -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Wasn't your first prediction a few pages back $2.25B - $3.05B? So your new one isn't really a reduction, you just tightened up the window lol -
China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
XXR vs XXR replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
FTR, Maoyan WTS = 1421305 -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Previous releases. Even TFA had Christmas as the 3rd biggest presale day (over OW Sat and Sun). https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-advance-ticket-sales-are-staggering-1201667547/amp/ -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
Not during the Christmas holidays. -
I can tell you right now that even the most pessimistic trackers here don’t think it’s going under $500M DOM or $1.25B OS. The feasibility of your numbers just isn’t there.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
While it can’t possibly follow those sales pattern percentages, even if it were to just add what JWD or TGM added from now through Sunday that would be a huge win. -
Avatar :The Way of the Water OS thread
XXR vs XXR replied to Sophia Jane's topic in International Box Office
A lot of good info in that article…. -
Their OS prediction definitely seems conservative to me. Probably by $100M. I’m still sitting in the mid-150s for domestic OW.
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China will be at least $50M more than that. No clue about openings in any other OS market though.
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My general rule of thumb is whatever the rating is at 100 reviews, just subtract 5 and that’ll be the final rating. Of course, after OD the critics rating doesn’t really matter.
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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread (December 2021 - July 2023)
XXR vs XXR replied to Cap's topic in Numbers and Data
I would say under $140M is underwhelming for me. That doesn’t mean it would be a bad number it would just be less than the lower threshold I built into my head. -
While it’s fun to gesticulate and doomsay, in the end these reviews/ratings are right in line with the first film. Im still excited to return to Pandora (51 more hours!) and I hope the rest of you are as well
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I do. By hand.
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Not sure on the intricacies of Chinese ratings sites, but I do know Douban is the hardest grade of the 3 major sites. Maoyan (the most commonly referenced) will probably be 9.2-9.4 (Avatar is a 9.4).
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China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30
XXR vs XXR replied to A Marvel Fanboy's topic in China At The Box Office
For reference, IW started off at 8.4 and Endgame 9.3