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XXR vs XXR

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Everything posted by XXR vs XXR

  1. I think that’s the boat we’re all in at this point. I’m confident this will at least be an “A” Cinemascore in the US, but I need SK to tell me if we could be looking at an A+
  2. Cool cool but let’s keep that info in here for now 👀
  3. Should be imminent assuming there was indeed 8AM shows.
  4. Yes, even with that being the case. If the ROI isn't there, neither he nor Disney will be committing $300M+ dollars to A4. With that being said, I expect that the market will be there even if it doesn't hit some of the loftier expectations being thrown about.
  5. Looking at the 10 biggest OS markets, here is what I see as the minimum in each location.... China - $375M South Korea - $85M United Kingdom - $80M Japan - $75M France - $75M Germany - $60M Mexico - $55M India - $55M Brazil - $45M Australia - $45M These 10 markets alone are good for $950M at a minimum. My rough estimate for the remaining OS markets is $380M at a minimum That gives us at least $1.33B OS with merely average holiday legs. Anyone who would find this disappointing or lackluster needs to re-evaluate their expectations.
  6. Wasn't your first prediction a few pages back $2.25B - $3.05B? So your new one isn't really a reduction, you just tightened up the window lol
  7. Previous releases. Even TFA had Christmas as the 3rd biggest presale day (over OW Sat and Sun). https://deadline.com/2015/12/star-wars-the-force-awakens-advance-ticket-sales-are-staggering-1201667547/amp/
  8. I can tell you right now that even the most pessimistic trackers here don’t think it’s going under $500M DOM or $1.25B OS. The feasibility of your numbers just isn’t there.
  9. While it can’t possibly follow those sales pattern percentages, even if it were to just add what JWD or TGM added from now through Sunday that would be a huge win.
  10. Their OS prediction definitely seems conservative to me. Probably by $100M. I’m still sitting in the mid-150s for domestic OW.
  11. China will be at least $50M more than that. No clue about openings in any other OS market though.
  12. My general rule of thumb is whatever the rating is at 100 reviews, just subtract 5 and that’ll be the final rating. Of course, after OD the critics rating doesn’t really matter.
  13. I would say under $140M is underwhelming for me. That doesn’t mean it would be a bad number it would just be less than the lower threshold I built into my head.
  14. While it’s fun to gesticulate and doomsay, in the end these reviews/ratings are right in line with the first film. Im still excited to return to Pandora (51 more hours!) and I hope the rest of you are as well
  15. Not sure on the intricacies of Chinese ratings sites, but I do know Douban is the hardest grade of the 3 major sites. Maoyan (the most commonly referenced) will probably be 9.2-9.4 (Avatar is a 9.4).
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