Daxtreme

It seems like, since I've been here, I've only just now discovered @Rey's epic posts Forgive me, my lords, for having been blind to such greatness

DAT GIF!!

As if we didn't know...

"How would you define this thread right now?"

Trump supporters created #DumpStarWars because one of the movie's writers said on twitter that the Empire were White Supremacist, which explains why there are so many humans within their ranks. Of course he meant that as an objective fact, and in a non-political way, but Trump Supporters went crazy and said Rogue One was anti-Trump propaganda, and thus decided to boycott the movie. It didn't seem to dawn on them that the tweet was old and has nothing to do with Trump's campaign. Whatever. Then this guy says that since R1 opened below BvS, their campaign is a success, while we all know he's full of shit because Rogue One's total will blow BvS's total out of the water by the end of next week-end or so. So, their campaign was, in the end, inconsequential, as we all said it would be here. second time I write this btw, website crashed on me

Mike Cernovich when he sees the final numbers:

Wait a minute. Only a 500+ pages thread is an event I might change that to 550 later

MovieMan's conviction knows no limits, that much can be ascertained

EmpireCity: MovieMan:

As every time it happens, Rth's numbers really do unleash mayhem in these parts... What additional surprises does MovieMan's Event-O-Meter have in stock for us? How will @Jayhawk and @cannastop react to the next rack of Box Office History #DumpLings offered to us dearly by @CJohn? Tune in on the next episode of the "Rogue One - A Star Wars Story week-end thread" to find out! ------------------ Meanwhile in the admin room:

with 40 today... 29 THUR 42.1 FRI 46.3 SAT 40 SUN #FRONTLOADED

... now what?

Rogue One to TFA right now: I WILL FINISH... WHAT YOU STARTED

Seriously though, an 18% drop was already quite optimistic by Disney. upper range, 41, gives 11% drop. Same as TFA Insane! edit: with worse weather, and more kids still in school monday

Oh noes, some guy on the BOT forums has some grudge against me for some reason ! What am I going to do For the record, if you go by that logic, a majority of the users on these forums were "completely wrong" about the OW, so pretty much everyone here sucks at predicting box office right? That's what makes it a prediction, dude. No one ever said it would become a fact. It's about sticking your guts out there and making a call, which I don't recall you ever doing, anywhere. Easy to criticize and call out people left and right -- which is the only thing you've been doing since joining these forums by the way -- when you have nothing on the line. Just look at this post: A majority of people in here were wrong in this thread, so what? Nobody cares. It's all fun and games. By that logic, anyone who predicted anything else than $150-160M OW in there should quit these forums and never come back because they know nothing about box office Call me out all you want if Rogue One doesn't make a holiday multiplier, I don't really care you know. These are numbers forums, we discuss numbers, and sometimes that means being right, sometimes that means being wrong. You would do well to remember that. You act like if I have personal stakes in this... I don't.

Oh except, you know, being certified out of baumer's under 450 club. Being certified out of the 600M+ rogue one club. I'll also be right on the holiday legs, but that hasn't yet come to past... Tell me, which clubs did you join?

Also, I think that if you take ALL the movies this year regardless of word of mouth, and set animation in its own subcategory competing against only itself, smaller openings could be compared on even footing vs bigger openings as far as legs are concerned. As much as there are smaller opening movies getting uber legs because of word of mouth, there are movies around like Jane Got a Gun or some other movie like that getting UBER TOXIC WoM which would put even BvS to shame. It all evens out in the end. You give equal weight to all this data, where every movie is worth 1, count their multipliers, and see what happens. Movies with bigger openings seem to have worse legs because most of them are sequels. It has nothing to do with the size of the opening, it's just that legs are generally better on original movies vs sequels. Also, smaller movies getting uber legs are generally oscar contenders. Again, nothing to do with smaller openings, like sequels. It's just the nature of the movie doing work here. However, taking every movie into account should give us an average where huge movies with big openings but disgusting legs like BvS get canceled out by movies like Jane Got a Gun on the opposite side of the spectrum (lower openings) When small openers crash and burn, they freaking get disintegrated and fall 80%+ in their 2nd week-ends. Talk about being front-loaded. We're nearing light-speed front-loading at this point ... Sadly I'm not wiling to do the maths because you have to include all movies released this year, and movieman just isn't worth it. Sorry. We all know the answer anyway: size does not matter

I didn't cherry pick anything, I went down the top 15 and ignored BvS and animation movies because they're historically showcasing epic legs. If you compare animation movies between themselves, which is fair, it also goes against your theory so that's something. Here's how it goes -- Finding Dory OW: 135M / 3.6 multiplier Secret Life of Pets OW: 104M / 3.56 multiplier Jungle Book OW: 103M / 3.53 multiplier Zootopia OW: 75M / 4.54 multiplier Moana OW: 56.6M / unknown multiplier, at least 2.9 Trolls OW: multiplier: 46.5M / 3.2 multiplier Kung Fu Panda OW: 41M / 3.5 multiplier (BTW I forgot to put multipliers with the live action version of this post, but when I do, I'm still right) They all have fairly comparable multipliers, same for live action, therefore your theory that bigger openings can't be compared to smaller openings is bullshit. You're not providing any numbers either by the way. If anything, your instant dismissal just further proves that you're flailing around at this point, grasping at straws and in utter denial. That being said, I un-ignored you to talk, and this kind of answer just proves to me that you haven't changed one bit. In fact, I already know you're going to instantly dismiss this post with some made-up crap so... Rogue One will have >3 multiplier, by a wide margin because of holiday legs. No, bigger openings doesn't mean worse legs (Avengers, Jurassic World anyone?), and I'm tired of your trolling so good riddance. I'm not replying further to this flailing kid. Others, do what you must if you want, I don't care

Actually, they do behave the same. It's you that is completely lost in your own narrative. If you follow box office for 50M openers this year, you'll notice that they perform pretty much on par with bigger openers. The outlier is clearly Batman V Superman, but that one just got toxic WoM, it just cannot be compared with "normal" movies, regardless of size of opening. Also, animation movies have a historical tendency to drop much less than live action so they can't be compared to live action. In fact, animation movies opening to 100+ (like Dory), function exactly like smaller openers (zootopia/moana), they have roughly the same multipliers and w-e drops. That leaves us with the following live action (I only picked top 15, haven't got all day) Order is Movie Name (2nd w-e drop, 3rd w-e drop, 4th w-e drop) Civil War $179M OW (-59.5%, -54.7%, -53.3%) Deadpool $132M OW (-57.4%, -44.9%, 46.2%) Suicide Squad $133M OW (-67.4%, 52.1%, -41.3%) Doctor Strange $85M OW (-49.5%, -58.7%. -22.7% HOLIDAY) Fantastic Beasts $74.4M OW (-39.4%, -59.8%, -42.5%) Jason Bourne $59M OW (-62.2%, -38.2%, -42.1%) Star Trek Beyond $59M OW (-58.2%, -59.5%, -31.3%) X-Men Apocalypse $65M OW (-65.3%, -56.6%, -46.5%) I don't see any significant difference between those movies. They pretty much all had a horrendous drop at some point. Civil War clearly dropped the most, but it was a sequel to about 8 movies... In fact, a $133M opener (Deadpool), performed better than most ~$60M openers (X-Men, Jason Bourne, Star Trek)... If anything, there is some data here indicating that bigger openers can perform BETTER than smaller openers. You know, word of mouth and all that. Just what were you trying to say exactly...?

Jesus, I can't wait for the numbers to shut MovieMan right up Although you'll probably come up and say that it wasn't "that far away from your predictions" after editing them afterward or some shit... A huge drop on the 2nd week-end doesn't mean anything for R1 btw, we know it's coming. It's like looking at a summer monday, witnessing the big drop and going "LUL - DAT MONDAY DROP, MOVIE DED" well no shit bro, all movies drop big on mondays...? R1 will drop big on dec 24 we all know that, and it will hurt the week-end significantly, but it will rebound after. You seem to think that a big opening in December automatically cancels/plummets daily % numbers... but it just doesn't.