George Parr

Indeed, the movie was exceptionally well received and the complaints were few and far in between. The idea that "the US" was annoyed about Rey has no basis in reality. The comment about Lucas being "upset" with Disney over TFA isn't true either. Going from what he has actually said and done, TFA likely isn't the movie he would have made, but he never said a bad word about it either, on the contrary. He might not have been much of a fan of making the movie such a huge callback to the OT, but that doesn't mean that he was upset with what Disney had done. There is a pretty broad range between loving something and being upset about it.

I don't remember such a thing happening. The only comments I do remember from that time were mentioning that using the numbers from christmas didn't really allow for any proper comparison due to the nature of christmas ruining the very weekend that was supposed to be used to extrapolate numbers. And that turned out to be true, if you look at countries like the UK or Australia. The highly variable holiday schedule makes direct comparisons of this kind basically impossible until after the season is over, or at least very close to being over.

I think you switched around the meaning there, because "means squat" = "doesn't mean a thing", which in this case would suggest that Variety thinks it doesn't matter at all, and not that it puts more importance on this than it should

Christmas eve falls on a Monday in 2018. If you start on the 21st, you only have about 11 days only the holiday period is over. Starting the weekend before will obviously leave you with the first week without any true holidays, but that beats the alternative of having just one week of great weekdays. The weekdays right after the start should be good enough anyway, even if it sees no or only very little help from holidays. I also don't think that "3rd Friday of the month" is of any relevance to Disney. If anything, it would be 3rd weekend of the month, and in 2018 that's 14/15/16. Who cares if the Friday of the first weekend technically is the last day of November, it doesn't really make a difference.

Yeah, well, that was the entire point of my post.

But that's just it. Going by the estimates from Thu+Fri, Rogue One would have been at something like 420k already, yet Saturday+Sunday are supposed to only add another 40k combined? The numbers aren't any different for all the other movies. In fact, the totals for Assassin's Creed for those two days are already bigger than the weekend estimate we got, did people suddenly retract their viewing the day after? That's what I'm talking about. I already knew about the things you said fully well, the problem is that things don't match up. The numbers that occasionally get listed here as numbers from the individual days can't be actual numbers for these days, at best they are broad ranges that may be off by quite a bit. Else the weekend numbers simply do not match what has been listed as daily numbers.

Either the estimates for Thursday/Friday were a bit too high, or both Saturday and Sunday were completely dead... Here are the weekend estimates: 1. Rogue One 460k 2. Vaiana 280k 3. Assassin's Creed 235k 4. Vier gegen die Bank 225k 5. Sing 220k 6. Wbd Hartmanns 115k 7. Fantastic Beasts 115k

1) Has nothing to do with the quote, nor does it contradict anything that I said 2) WTF are you even talking about? That bit was about far-right groups clamouring for a boykott of Star Wars because of non-white actors. There is literally no way how you could understand what I wrote in any different way. If you couldn't be bothered to inform yourself about these things, that isn't my problem. 3) How do you know that it did? It's not on me to prove that having these actors hurt or helped the movies everywhere, you where the one who made claims that Star Wars should focus on actors who come from countries where the movies make the most money. The movie is performing exceptionally well, it is Star Wars, the reason why 99% of the people watch it is because it is Star Wars, not because the 7th most important actor happened to be an American. Even stars don't make the difference between a hit and a flop, yet you think that having a slightly different support cast would somehow make a huge difference, how is that supposed to make any sense? 4) Completely useless examples. Last Samurai played in Japan, of course it had mostly Japanese actors, hence it doesn't work as a comparable at all. The movies Christoph Waltz had success with were one James Bond and a few Tarantinos, all of which are already successful anyway, regardless of him. His James Bond movie actually dropped from the ones before. Besides, that is yet another useless comparison, because Waltz is featured in one core role, which is the opposite from that point you tried to make about Rogue One. You are also completey twisting this one on the head. International markets may improve a bit if one of their stars happened to be in a role, but Hollywood movies don't get perceived any differently in the US if the support roles behind the main ones are filled with American or British actors. The idea simply doesn't work. The whole reason why international markets might be a bit more interested in a movie which includes one of its stars is because it is completely uncommon. Having supporting actors from the USA is very much the opposite of being uncommon. No on is going to say "I really want to see this particular Hollywood movie because it features american actors in a support role", because that is true for virtually EVERY movie. 5) They don't need to do that at all. They need to focus on making the best possible movie, because the best possible movie will reach the biggest possible audience. The success of Star Wars will never depend on whether some support actors are American, British, German or Chinese, it is simply irrelevant for the movie as a whole. What has a far bigger impact is the quality of the movie. If everyone raves about it, more people will come and see it. That's what matters.

I don't see any reason to do that. Did the presence of Donnie Yen, Jiang Wen or the others cause a drop in box office for the movie in places were Star Wars is strongest? It doesn't look like it. Apart from a few deranged people on the far-right and their "boycott", no one was in any way bothered by it and the movie has been a huge success. There is zero reason to assume that the movie would have fared any differently in its biggest markets if more actors from those markets had been in it. People from those countries watch Star Wars because it is Star Wars, not because actors from their country are in it. Lucasfilm should use the actors they deem to be the best fit for the roles they have - provided they can get them of course - regardless of where they are from.

Yup, the site occasionally acts like deadline, forbes or variety, "lets throw a weird multiplier at it and hope that it sticks". In this particular case, they basically took the Thursday numbers and multiplied them by 4, which is absurd. I think the insidekino-trend might be a bit on the low side, especially if Friday stays mostly flat from Thursday, but there is no way Saturday or Sunday will act in the same way. Even a multiplier of 3 would have been quite optimistic, but 4 really takes it too far. There is a reason why everyone here refers to insidekino for almost everything, and not any other sources (not counting Rth, of course )

Going by the lists made on the insidekino forum, numbers for today sound terrific. Can't really make any projections from that, but it's a good early sign that admissions might indeed increase again for the weekend.

Mark_G says on the insidekino forum that it looks like he underestimated pretty much all movies in yesterday's trend, Rogue One should be closer to 1.065m, Vaiana/Moana definately above 500k

Ah yes, that makes sense. Explains the differences to the earlier numbers, some of the movies only had a partial weekend or didn't even start until afterwards, so that fits.

I think that is supposed to be a "whole week" trend, so these weekdays plus the following weekend. Otherwise it wouldn't fit the numbers for the weekdays mentioned earlier. On the other hand, it doesn't really fit to those numbers either. Mhm, weird.

Sounds like Rogue One will be at around 2.4m admissions after the weekdays, per the insidekino boards. That would be around 580k admissions for the three days. Other numbers given (totals): Vaiana close to 500k, Vier gegen die Bank 275+k, Assassin's Creed 225k.

It isn't though, that was the entire point. It behaved mostly like a movie should under this christmas constellation. I don't remember many people talking of 70+ either. Maybe some people thought that was doable when the Saturday came in with a lower drop than expected, but that isn't the same as people expecting such a thing before. If anything, the movie landed at the upper end of the expectations, as hardly anyone predicted a 96m 4-day weekend. Unless you want to use sites like deadline - which are notoriously bad at projection the weekends - as proof, which would be rather ridiculous. Comparing the drop of a movie that is way into its run and thus not falling from it's preview-inflated opening weekend isn't really a proper way to judge things either.

Yes, because a Star Wars fan couldn't possibly dislike a Star Wars movie, I mean all eight movies only got rave reviews from fans and none of them had ever anything critical to say about the movies or their creators Yes, there are fans out there who will love anything, regardless of what it actually shows, but just like that, there are also fans who are far more critical than the average person would ever be.

Went back to the old insidekino board to check what happened in 2011. These are only the estimates though, not the final numbers. If Rogue One would behave somewhat similarly to those movies, it should be at least at around 3.5 million at the end of the holidays (provided the holiday situation hasn't changed between 2011/12 and this time), which in this case lasts at least in some states to the third weekend. Most of the movies saw another 500k in admissions, though they probably deal with lower numbers over the timeframe, so Rogue One might get a bit more than that. I'd say it could reach 4.5m, but I'm not particularly good when it comes to judging this when the holidays are in play Sherlock Holmes 2: christmas weekend: 290k (255k without previews) following weekdays: 395k new years weekend: 335k (total = 1m) following weekdays: 235k third weekend: 335k (total = 1.57m) Finished with 2.046m Puss in Boots (3rd weekend on christmas): christmas weekend: 190k following weekdays: ? new years weekend: 285k (total = 2.085m) following weekdays: 230k third weekend: 280k (total = 2.595m) Finished with 3.194m Rubbeldiekatz (2nd weekend): christmas weekend: 160k following weekdays: ? new years weekend: 240k (total = 1.09m) following weekdays: 210k third weekend: 280k (total = 1.58m) Finished with 2.1m MI: Phantom Protocol (2nd weekend): christmas weekend: 150k following weekdays: ? new years weekend: 175k (total = 1.065m) following weekdays: 115k third weekend: 175k (total = 1.355m) Finished with 1.584m Alvin & the Chipmunks 3 (opening weekend): hristmas weekend: 175k (140k without previews) following weekdays: ? new years weekend: 195k following weekdays: ? third weekend: 235k (total = 1.075m) The weekdays with a ? combine for about 470k, no idea how they are split though Finished with 1.782m

I'd wait with making such comments until the holidays are over. It's not really possible to judge where a movie is heading based on christmas days. The best days of the holidays are just coming up, which will make things look rather different again, while the worst days of the year are just behind the movie. At this point I'm not sure whether it can catch up to FB internationally either, but this isn't really the point in time where such a judgement can be made.

You aren't seriously comparing drops between a movie that is in its second week of release and one that has almost run its course, do you? Of course FB will see lower drops, it's numbers are far lower. If you already have made most of your money, losing out on two days doesn't impact you nearly as much as when you are still making big numbers. Especially when you add the factor that Rogue One dropped from its opening weekend (which in many cases gets enhanced by previews), while FB obviously doesn't. Seriously, it sounds like you have little idea what you are talking about. You haven't bothered to take the situation into account, even when people told your about it. You flat out ignored the way christmas falls this year, that the weekend is artificially lowered because of it, and that the next few days will be a whole lot better again because that's where the money gets made during the christmas holidays. You basically pick the one tiny detail that fits your narrative while ignoring everything else around it.

And? You do realise that there was this thing called christmas on the weekend, yes? Rogue One lost the best day of the weekend and still delivered the 13th/14th best 2nd weekend ever. Monday might be the 2nd or 3rd best ever, followed by a whole week where it pretty much won't drop at all. It has a good chance to get the second best 2nd week ever, with another good chance to get at least the 3rd best 3rd weekend and week as well. Internationally, the 24th is in most nations cut short, while the 25th is either not much better either or not even having any showings at all, of course the weekend is going to look weak under such circumstances. It doesn't take a whole lot of effort to realise that things will change completely over the next few days though, because instead of having the weakest days of the year, some of the strongest are about to hit. Sounds more like you don't really know about what the circumstances are and how movies behave during such a period, because you couldn't be more wrong.

Don't see why it would be doubtful at this point. It's easily going to pass 500m domestically, meaning it doesn't even need 500m internationally to make 1 billion worldwide. It's really odd that some people seem to forget that christmas fell on a weekend this year. Christmas puts many of the biggest international markets to almost a complete stop. The 24th gets cut short and the 25th is either not back on course yet or not even having any showings at all. Of course will the weekend fall bigtime if the two most important days of it are pretty much not adding anything of worth. The next few days will be the very opposite of that. You basically predict Rogue One's further run on what amounts to probably the two worst days of the year, while completely ignoring that the next week is full of the strongest days of the year. Just an example: last year TFA had its second weekend reduced due to Thursday and Friday being the 24th and 25th (Germany counts Thursday towards the weekend), leading to "just" 1.15 million admissions over the four days. It followed that up with 1.27 million from Monday to Wednesday, setting a new record in the process, before adding a 850k or so third weekend, which was againa bit weaker due to new years eve / day. Rogue One is obviously not TFA, but you can't just take numbers that are artificially lowered to due christmas and go from there, you have to take into account that the following days are very much the opposite from that.

Yeah, I thought about mentioning Avatar in 2nd place for both cases as well (68.5 / 96.9), but thought that it might push things a bit too far at this point.

With that kind of Monday, Rogue One might have a solid shot at second best 2nd week ever (currently Jurassic World with 149.6m). If the estimates hold, it would need an average of around 17.8m Tue-Thu to top that. I guess if that would happen, it would also have a chance to reach a top 3 3rd weekend and 3rd week as well. Currently the third spots for those are held by The Avengers (55.6m) and Jurassic World (81.46m)

Nah, it's just that christmas is in many cases even more of a deathzone for movies than domestically. The next few days should be much bigger again. The final result will be just fine, hardly world-beating, but good enough.