hw64
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Posts posted by hw64
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1 hour ago, grim22 said:
3D became such a huge thing for a while there - Clash of the Titans and Alice in Wonderland both did great thanks to awful 3D conversions and started the immediate 3D backlash.
Cameron at least sensibly realized audiences are still not ready for any High Frame Rate and apparently ditched it for the Avatar sequels. Leaving that to Ang Lee to keep trying on that with audiences still not caring.
Cameron's still doing the high framerate thing for the Avatar sequels. It's not entirely clear at the moment how the higher framerate will be utilized, but the films are being shot at 48fps at least. It's most likely going to be standard 24fps with 48fps for the action sequences.
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29 minutes ago, BruiseCruise said:
titanic worldwide
Market expansion will do away with it, unfortunately. It's probably extremely unlikely that any movie in the rest our lifetimes will ever have as big a box office run as Titanic had, but in terms of ticket sales, there's now hundreds of millions more ticket sale potential for a movie globally than there was in 1997 due to massive expansion in markets like China, Russia, South Korea, Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, etc., which, as is the case for unadjusted records, makes Titanic's global ticket sales record a potential target for a less successful film. The fact that no movie has touched the record despite nearly 25 years of global box office market growth is only a testament to how fucking huge Titanic was.
And if Titanic's ticket sales record has to fall purely due to the effects of market expansion, and not because we get another Titanic-tier box office run, then it would be fitting if Avatar 2 were the first movie to do it (and I'm kinda betting that it will, assuming China). The lack of Russia as a market hurts its chances at that a little, but perhaps it gets a release there a few years down the road.
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24 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:
Price increases beat all records eventually.
Yep — that, and market expansion, although we seem to have hit peak market expansion over the past decade or so, whereas ticket prices increases were more modest (only +23% over a whole decade, from the domestic Q4 2009 average of $7.61 to the Q4 2019 average of $9.37).
That now seems to be reversing, in that it appears that ticket price growth will now be the main driving force behind unadjusted gross inflation, with market expansion taking a backseat.
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34 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:
The main thing all this tells me is that a film with Endgame level hype + a runtime under 160 minutes (NWH had 10-15% more showtimes than EG) could make over $475M OW right now.
With these levels of ticket price inflation, all unadjusted records set in the past decade are assailable (and moreover, assailable by less successful films). TFA's $937m domestic record (and indeed, $1b domestic) could quite easily be reached by a film that sells significantly fewer tickets than TFA.
Similarly, Avatar's $2.8b worldwide unadjusted gross is weaker than ever and, quite frankly, ripe for the taking, just like Titanic's was in 2009. We'll have to see how theatrical recovery continues over 2022, but if we do start seeing something close to normal business consistently — which I think we will — then there are probably going to be quite a lot of "record-breaking" runs over the next few years (such is the nature of unadjusted records anyway, but now more so than ever).
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1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
EDIT: seems like i'm reading the information wrong, but increase the in prices should be over 20% since 2019
Yeah — as mentioned above, the average ticket price for a major blockbuster in any given quarter is always going to be some 15-20%+ above the overall average ticket price for that quarter.
In AMC theaters, which we now have Q4 2021 data for, the average ticket price in Q4 2021 was $11.50, up 21% from Q2 2019's $9.47. As mentioned in that article, No Way Home's opening weekend average ticket price at AMC theaters was $13.92, up a further 21% from the AMC Q4 2021 average. A movie like Endgame's ATP would have been similarly higher than the overall quarterly average.
So while they're not the 40-50% price hikes that you first thought, the increases are still very significant.
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7 minutes ago, PenguinXXR said:
Ehh. If the battle is "data driven presales" vs "intuition and hope", the data is going to win 99 times out of 100. I'll take that.
My suggestion is "data-driven presales and intuition" over just "data-driven presales"; as I said in the post that you quoted, "you can't just ignore [the data] entirely."
I'd rather not have this conversation dominate the thread, so I'll leave it there in terms of my replies — I've already made the points that I wanted to make.
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44 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:
And everyone in the tracking thread is going to be closer to the previews than Excel who made the "brave" predictions of 35M, so I don't get what your problem is exactly? Are we just supposed to ignore data and go off of vibes?
Intuition should absolutely play a part in a good box office analyst's predictions, yes; you can't just let your predictions be ruled by the presales data, to the same extent that you can't just ignore it entirely.
And I'm not suggesting that excel's predictions were rooted in anything other than guesswork and hope, I was just pointing out that he was one of few people, and the only really vocal person, that went against the general presales-driven expectations/consensus for The Batman, even though I think there was decent enough reason to do so in this case.
We haven't gotten any substantial numbers in yet, so let's see how the weekend plays out, but regardless of the outcome of this weekend I stand by my point earlier that relying as heavily on the presales data as some do is eventually going to come back to bite people in their predictions.
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41 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Sure, there may be some people who are, oh let's say "more self-assured than others" when it comes to interpreting data and aren't afraid to let others know it.
Not exactly much different from every other thread on this forum, or indeed much of the internet then.
I mean, don't get me wrong. I tend to think we could all be more humble and aware of potential pitfalls. I just like to think that within the actual Tracking thread "community" there is far more debate and disagreement than some folks give us credit for.
Thanks. As I say, I'm not trying to indict the entire tracking community, just this mentality that pervades among certain users who try to interpret the tracking data.
What I'm really advocating for is a bit more humility in these users about the potential shortcomings of presales-driven predictions, and perhaps a bit more bravery (where's it's warranted and appropriate) from the general userbase in spite of the presales data. I don't think I've seen really anyone outside of @excel1 (or at least, anyone loud) breaking the mold when it comes to The Batman OW predictions — the presales data seems to have made everyone afraid of going against the grain.
28 minutes ago, Fox20 said:All this because they are not overpredicting your fave franchise?
Really? To my knowledge, I've never posted in a DC thread on this forum, nor have I ever even mentioned a DC movie in a post outside of this thread. The only DC movies I've seen are Batman Begins, The Dark Knight, and (regrettably) The Dark Knight Rises. I doubt I'll be seeing The Batman, at least in theaters. I am not a DC fan, at all. Where does this baseless accusation come from?
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29 minutes ago, Porthos said:
Instead I will simply note: Don't confuse all of the commentary in the Tracking thread from the actual tracking posts, s'il vous plaît.
I'm not criticizing the trackers — they do good work, and the numbers are a useful starting point and an important factor to consider when making predictions. I'm criticizing some people's interpretation of the presales data, and in particular, the huge significance that's been placed on the data since tracking restarted, so much so that they seem now to be the only factor some people consider when making opening weekend predictions — the sort of mindset that says that if the presales aren't up to par, then it's literally impossible for a movie to have a good opening weekend.
Of course, this is hyperbole, but that's what it feels like people think with how little people are prepared to deviate from the presales trends with their opening weekend predictions. I need only point to you the mini-meltdowns and panic that happened earlier in the tracking thread when the presales weren't increasing as expected for The Batman as evidence of the sort of significance people have placed on them.
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1 hour ago, DAJK said:
Yea... let’s just say this ended up being FAR more walkup heavy than I ever would have thought
If this keeps up over the entire weekend... we’re in for a treat.
If this ends up being true, then let it be a lesson for certain people in the tracking thread who have gotten high off of their own numbers over the past few weeks. There's been way too much self-confidence bordering on cockiness about the data, which some seem to think is infallible and the be-all and end-all for opening weekend predictions.
I think some people seem to have forgotten, in the face of the last 9 months where a lot of the big domestic blockbusters were well-behaved and predictable Marvel movies, that despite the increased prevalence of presales, unpredictable and highly variable walkups still make up a big percentage of the opening weekend, especially for movies which aren't as presales-driven as Marvel movies (i.e. pretty much all movies except Star Wars movies).
I feel like this needs to be said regardless of whether The Batman exceeds presales-based expectations or not, because relying so heavily on presales data is going to eventually bite people hard anyway. Hopefully it is The Batman that gets to knock people down a peg, because the lesson is best learned sooner rather than later.
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23 minutes ago, Shanks said:
lmao, 75% of 94m (Avatar's 1 Gross) is 70.5m to 79.9m. Most people agree Avatar 2 at least should do those numbers. I expect it get near 80m Euro, so I am not sure what you are arguing with us for.
I wasn't necessarily arguing with you, I was just posting my thoughts. And as @PenguinXXR says, I said 75-85% of Avatar's dollar gross in Europe (overall), not 75-85% of its 94m GBP gross in the UK. Due to the exchange rate differences, Avatar 2 will need to do significantly more than 75-85% of Avatar in local currencies in order to make 75-85% of its dollar gross across Europe overall, especially in the markets where local currency ticket prices have increased (e.g. the UK, Germany, Russia) in order to offset bigger dollar gross declines in markets like Spain and Italy (due to declining local currency ticket prices) and in Russia (the RUB now being worth around 35-40% of what it was worth against the USD in 2010).
So yes, you'd need a gross in the UK approaching or exceeding Avatar's £94m to hit 75-85% of Avatar's dollar gross in Europe overall. I think that's perfectly doable, especially with the average ticket prices we're seeing at the moment for No Way Home and even more so with whatever Avatar 2's average ticket price ends up being.
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16 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:
How is £80m dropping like a stone from the first movie? That's still top 10 of all time in the UK
It's not, that's not what I said. Separate replies to separate posts.
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5 hours ago, Derby Legion said:
Avatar 1 only did 94 so I don't really see why 2 would go above 80M
The same reason why unadjusted grosses just keep going up every year, the same reason why No Way Home has surpassed Avatar's unadjusted UK gross: ticket price increases. Not only do we have to account for the increases in the whole decade between 2009 and 2019, but also now those in this post-pandemic period, where cinemas are looking to quickly recoup their pandemic losses and where actual inflation is on the rise. In UK & Ireland Cineworld cinemas, the ATP was $8.53 in Q1-Q2 2019; in Q1-Q2 2021, that average was $11.62 (+36%).
2 hours ago, Shanks said:TBH, this all talk about Avatar 2 increasing over Avatar is bulls if we are only talking about Europe.
Avatar (2009) had very high ATP over all for movies released in 2009.
Not taking UK as example because they really don't count Admissions, but taking Italy, Germany, France & Spain as examples that do.
I don't think anyone's seriously predicting an increase in Europe in dollar gross. Not only are Avatar's admissions in Europe second only to Titanic in at least the past 3 decades — an extremely high bar to equal, let alone surpass — but of course it also benefitted from very favorable EUR-USD, GBP-USD and RUB-USD exchange rates.
That being said, there will be some offsetting factors, like higher local currency ticket prices. With some exceptions, ticket prices in local currency for big blockbusters have generally increased since Avatar. In Germany, for example, No Way Home is a bit of an exception, with big blockbusters of the past few years like The Force Awakens (€11.32), Infinity War (€11.10) and Endgame (€11.21) having higher averages than Avatar's €10.14. Spain and Italy are the major exceptions as their local currency ticket prices have decreased significantly since the mid-2010s due to various external factors. Russia, as you mention, is a big one, with No Way Home's average being ₽324, +26% over Avatar's ₽256. And while admissions data for the UK isn't publicly available, I can only imagine, based on the above data and the general trend of average ticket price increases over Avatar for recent big blockbusters in mature markets, that a movie like No Way Home will have a significantly higher ATP in the UK than Avatar did.
And then you have to remember that we're making comparisons to regular big event blockbusters, and that Avatar 2 will ostensibly be the beneficiary of a higher share of 3D/premium format tickets, plus a further year or more of ticket price inflation over the comparables.
There is also still market expansion to consider, even in Europe. Although most Western European countries have stayed static, many Central and Eastern European countries, like Russia (if you count it), Ukraine, Turkey, Poland, Romania and Bulgaria have seen big increases in yearly ticket sales since 2009. In Russia, for example, yearly admissions increased from 165.5m in 2010 to 216.3m in 2019, +31%. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Avatar 2 beat the original's admissions record there, and its local currency gross by a much wider margin.
So while I don't think anyone can reasonably expect a dollar gross increase in Europe for Avatar 2, it certainly doesn't have to drop like a stone from the original. 75-85% of Avatar's dollar gross in Europe, off the top of my head, seems like a good goal for Avatar 2 to aim for.
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1 hour ago, interiorgatordecorator said:
Give me the numbers
Everyone mentions the inflation but never the numbers
How much for 3D and its premium format variations?
I don't have specific format breakdowns for you, but to give you some examples, the average ticket price in domestic AMC theaters increased from $9.47 in Q2 2019 to $10.98 in Q3 2021 (+16%), and the average ticket price in domestic Cinemark theaters increased from $8.12 in Q2 2019 to $9.33 in Q2 2021 (+15%).
As far I can tell from NATO's quarterly average ticket price data for Q4 2009 onwards and BOM's yearly average data for pre-2009 years, this is by far the biggest increase in a 2-year period since the 70s when actual inflation was driving up ticket prices at rapid rates. Even during the 3D boom, ticket prices didn't rise anywhere near as fast.
It's happening overseas, too: in Cineworld theaters in the UK and Ireland, ticket prices have increased from an average of $8.53 across Q1-Q2 2019 to a whopping $11.62 (+36%) across Q1-Q2 2021.
Q4 2021 data isn't yet available, but Q4 is almost always the quarter with the highest average ticket price, and especially with No Way Home I imagine the averages will have gone through the roof even further.
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I'm generally one of the more conservative/realist predictors in this thread, but boy, let me tell you, after having just done some research into the post-pandemic ticket price inflation that's been happening, I've fully drunk the Kool-Aid and I'm now very open to the possibility of this doing $3.5b.
I also never thought it'd be likely for Avatar 2 to surpass the domestic gross of the original, but again, looking at the current average domestic ticket prices, I can definitely see this coming very close to or surpassing Avatar's $760m.
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On 2/21/2022 at 5:32 PM, PenguinXXR said:
I mean anything is feasible in an unknown scenario, but I certainly wouldn’t predict that much. Thinking more like £60-75M.
Even if you were working with 2019 ticket prices I would say that's low. And as I'm sure we're all aware, ticket prices have increased massively since then: across all Cineworld cinemas in the UK and Ireland, for example, the average ticket price increased by nearly 41% from the first 6 months of 2020 to the first 6 months of 2021. Of course, some of that increase (though by no means all of it) is due to release slate differences between the two periods, but even so, I can only imagine how much the average ticket price will have increased in the latter half of 2021 with No Way Home's release.
And on top of that, you'd have to reasonably expect that ticket prices for Avatar 2 will be even higher than for No Way Home, with a further year of inflation, higher premium/3D format shares, and fewer child tickets. Factor all that in to the lower end of your range — £60m — and that's almost certainly at least a 50% drop in ticket sales from Avatar. I think that's a big lowball.
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12 hours ago, Lothar said:
Just a reminder.
we are 297 days and 15 hours away from A2 getting released.
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10 hours ago, Tarintino said:
Avatar's gross today is the equivalent to around 4.4b, so 50% of that was what I was referring to
Huge faux pas for you to even dare to mention the effects of market expansion, especially in a Marvel movie thread.
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Is there any reason in particular for the huge jump in average ticket price for NWH in comparison to other recent blockbusters?
ATP for NWH is working out to be around $70 in comparison to around $60 for Endgame, which is a big increase in only 2 years.
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We're very much in a situation akin to immediately prior to Titanic's release, or immediately prior to Avatar 2's release, where the full potential of the global box office is untapped.
The global box office market holds the potential for a film to gross far in excess of $3b — it would just take an Avatar-like or Titanic-like performance with huge, often record-breaking grosses in pretty much every market to realise that potential. No film since Avatar (and really, no other film in the history of cinema outside of Avatar and Titanic) has had that kind of global appeal where it resonates almost equally with people across all countries, cultures and languages.
There's no doubt in my mind that if Cameron delivers on Avatar 2 in the same way that he delivered on Titanic and Avatar, that Avatar 2 can gross well above $3b. The rational part of my brain is pushing back on $4b as that would be a Titanic-level performance, but it's Jim we're talking about here, so I'm not naive enough to say it's impossible, just very unlikely.
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2 hours ago, RiddlerXXR said:
My current expectation is around $1.8B OS-C. Very similar to NWH but with a shift in where the money comes from. For instance, I think DOM will be about $200M less than NWH but I think places like South Korea and Germany will beat NWH by $40M each.
South Korea, Germany, probably the entirety of the rest of Europe with the possible exception of the UK, Australia, Japan, etc. etc.
The only major overseas markets that I'm not confident Avatar 2 will outgross (and, moreover, out-admission) NWH are the UK, Brazil and Mexico.
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1 minute ago, JonahVex said:
Can you post links?
India:
France:
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Seems like Avatar 2's release date is starting to be officially confirmed in a number of overseas markets.
Lots of tweets recently about a December 14 release date in France, and a December 16 release date in India.
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39 minutes ago, Brainbug said:
I still do not believe that this film will come out.
You're about 2 years late with that hot opinion.
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If this keeps up over the entire weekend... we’re in for a treat.
Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it
in Box Office Discussion
Posted · Edited by hw64
We've had these arguments before. Endgame was no Avatar. It beat Avatar's unadjusted gross (barely — by less than a quarter of a percentage point, and even then only through a contrived expansion/re-release designed to push it past) due to generally higher local currency average ticket prices and, in particular, huge market expansion from 2009 to 2019, not only in the obvious example of China but also in Brazil, Mexico, India, Indonesia, Colombia, and most of the rest of Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe (even established markets like Russia and South Korea grew significantly between 2009 and 2019). Avatar's gross was boosted by very favorable exchange rates, but the effect of those exchange rates pales in comparison to the expansion in China alone, let alone the growth in the rest of the markets mentioned above.
Market expansion is also the reason why Endgame sold more tickets than Avatar, and also why Endgame's ticket sales are way closer to Titanic's than they should be, as both films — and Titanic in particular — were significantly bigger than Endgame. Avatar, I would estimate, is probably around a $3.5b film with the same market sizes and ticket prices as Endgame, and Titanic is probably a $4.5b+ film. The single biggest market skewing the ticket sales comparisons is China, where Endgame sold 85m+ tickets to Avatar's 27m and Titanic's <20m, despite Titanic and Avatar both probably being bigger in China than Endgame was for the market conditions during their respective releases. Take China from the comparison, and the picture becomes more clear, even though there's still market expansion in dozens of other markets to consider.