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hw64

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Posts posted by hw64

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Reddroast said:

    Well I understand why Hollywood doesn't work with teenagers for major films ( considering James Cameron is insanely difficult to work with)

     

    Uh...

     

    Avatar-2-youth-cast-photo-cropped.jpg

     

    2 hours ago, Reddroast said:

    I feel having a 72 year old play a teenager is going to anger a lot of actresses and considering who was in there mid-20s at the time of production ( Emma stone, Jennifer Lawrence, and Bire Larson come to mind) there may be some pushback from the GA

     

    This is absurd — what on earth are you talking about?

    • Like 6

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

     

    any idea how that compares to something like love and thunder or any of the other movies in the top 10 for 24h?

     

    I was curious, so I had a look into it. For the Love and Thunder teaser (which is the one that reached the 24-hour top 10), I polled 54 reposts and found a total of 118m views, so the Avatar 2 teaser is significantly up on that despite being out for 3 fewer weeks, despite leaking in HD nearly a week prior to its online release and despite being shown to a large portion, if not the majority, of the audience for a $450m global opening (likely 40-50m people).

     

    My search for reposts wasn't as comprehensive as for the Avatar 2 teaser, so I might be missing more views. Will shore that up when I get a chance and post final results.

    • Like 2

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

     

    That's awesome!

    Did you add in the most recent uploads in the past few days, like the IMAX 4K one, and the Kinocheck 4K one? They both seem to be doing quite well. I'm amazed that there is that much momentum in views after this many days, a sign for good things to come!

     

    Yep, I've added those in. In the interest of full transparency, here's a pastebin of the data as of a few minutes ago: https://pastebin.com/FgN34sd1.

     

    Note that the fact that the lowest-viewed repost I'm tracking has 7,000 views doesn't necessarily mean that I've captured all reposts above that view count (I almost certainly haven't) — I added in a couple of reposts with 100k views just today, for example.

     

    The total across the tracked reposts is 148.6m at present, but it's almost certainly 150m+ with the likely dozens/hundreds of reposts that I've not added in.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    14 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

     

    How does it compare to L&T on a site-by-site basis?

     

    On 4/19/2022 at 1:01 PM, charlie Jatinder said:

    22 hours

    You Tube - 44M (20M main channel)
    Twitter - 30M (26M main)
    Instagram - 40M+
    Facebook - 30M+

    Total - 145M+

    24 hours including all will be close to 200M.

     

    The 24 hour numbers for L&T wouldn't have been much different as Marvel trailers are frontloaded. So pretty close on YouTube — around 75-80% of L&T — and slightly lower on Twitter (main channel only), at around 60-65%.

     

    Haven't been tracking the others, but Avatar's Facebook numbers should compare similarly to the above, although Instagram numbers will likely be significantly lower.

     

    I wouldn't place much, if any significance on trailer views for a movie like Avatar 2, but insofar as they do hold weight, these are good signs, especially given the week-old high-quality online leaks and the theatrical debut. Marvel trailers aren't a good comparison for this anyway, so the fact that it's doing relatively comparable numbers is, again, a good sign.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    45 minutes ago, Ozymandias said:

    Maybe 10 years ago but this is not really the case anymore, we are in an ever increasingly online society... gen Z is like terminally online.  Now I'm not saying your boomer parents or a majority of normies are watching movie reviews on youtube, but to simply dismiss "online culture" such as twitter or youtube as a bubble with no impact at all on narratives or public opinion on things just isn't accurate or the State Department and 3 letter government agencies wouldn't be getting involved in online censorship and the control of information in such aggressive ways right now.  I don't watch any of them(except RLM), but quite a few of these youtubers have many millions of subscribers and get many, many times of the amount of viewers a review in traditional media such as the NYT ever get.

     

    Yeah, that was more just hyperbole to get my point across. The internet as a whole isn't a bubble, I agree, but I'd also agree with what @ThomasNicole has said, in that it is — or has increasingly become — a conglomeration of thousands of separate bubbles.

    • Like 2

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

    The film having immersion and worldbuilding to the point you feel like you're actually 4.8 lightyears away.

     

    Yes! Nail on head. You're one of very few people who really gets why Avatar was so huge. Way too often do I hear "Avatar only made as much as it did because of 3D", or "Avatar was only successful because of the visuals/CGI". No, wrong — the visuals and the 3D were merely components to its success, they weren't the driving forces. There have been dozens of movie, both before and since Avatar, that have utilized 3D to great effect, but none of them have come anywhere close to Avatar's success levels. There have been hundreds of movies, both before and since Avatar, that have incredible visual effects, but, again, none of them have come close to the impact of Avatar.

     

    What really drove Avatar's success was, as you say, the film's ability to really transport people to another world for 3 hours. That's a combination of a great many things — the visuals, the worldbuilding, the 3D, the storytelling, to name a few — and you can't just boil its success down to any single component. That's why concerns about the film's ability to deliver the same sort of mindblowing visual effects as in 2009, or about 3D no longer being a driving force for audiences, don't really register to me. It's the full immersive package that drove audiences to make Avatar the highest-grossing film of all time — not just the visuals, not just the 3D — and Avatar 2 will deliver that same unique experience again.

    • Like 6

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Reddroast said:

    The point I'm trying to make is that people with large reaches that can influence people. 4.74 million is a lot of people.

     

    Avatar 2 will sell hundreds of millions of tickets, and YouTube subscriber numbers are not representative of actual viewership — they're massively bloated by alts, bots, and old and inactive accounts. I don't know who this "comedy YouTuber" is, but active viewership for large channels is typically 1/10th of the subscriber count or less.

     

    So even if we assume that every single active viewer of this unnamed comedy YouTuber would otherwise be going to see Avatar 2 — which they wouldn't be — and that this YouTuber will manage to convince every single one of them not to see it — which he won't — then it wouldn't even make a dent in Avatar 2's ticket sales. It'd be a tiny percentage of a percentage point.

     

    I'll repeat again: the internet circles that you frequent — that any of us frequent — are a bubble.

    • Like 3

    AMERICA CHAVEZ IN THE MULTIVERSE OF MADNESS WEEKEND THREAD | Aka carbonara civil war thread | 187.42M OW

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    10 minutes ago, Juby said:

    Eternals legs: x2.31

    Black Widow legs: x2.29

     

    2nd Strange has much better reception than Eternals and isn't released on Disney+ as BW was. With 3 empty weeks ahead there's no way it will have worse legs than these two. If opening weekend is $187.5m than it will finish with at least $435m dom and around $1.1bl worldwide.

     

    It opened over 2.5x Eternals, and nearly 2.5x Black Widow. Legs are not independent of opening weekend, so this isn't a good argument.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    5 hours ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

    any reason for how meh it did there?

    even maleficent outgrossed it

     

    Meh? It was the highest-grossing film of all time in Mexico, both in LC and I believe in dollars. Mexico as a market has just grown immensely since 2009, from 170m yearly admissions to over 340m in 2019, over doubling in size.

     

    It likely would've done even better in Mexico if the 3D infrastructure in 2009 was anywhere near what it is today, a point which is especially worth noting in the developing markets. I can't find any specific stats for Mexico, but in Brazil, for example, there were only 109 3D screens in 2009 compared to 1,833 in 2019.

     

    5 hours ago, AnDr3s said:

    44.7m was 575m lc in 2009

    44.7m in 2022 is 902m lc

    yeah not improving much or at all

     

    Avatar's admissions with No Way Home's ticket prices already takes its gross to MX$715m. Account for the market literally doubling in size, and then on top of that the fact that Avatar 2 will probably have higher ticket prices than even No Way Home, and you'll see that there's significant room for growth even in dollar gross.

    • Like 3

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

    Mark's Equation for Avatar 2

     

    8M x €12.50 = €100M

     

    For more details, click on this link

     

    Compare that to Avatar's 10.9m admissions in Germany (first run) at an ATP of €10.11 for an €110.1m total.

     

    It's by no means an outlandish prediction. The average ticket price looks about right, but I'd personally have it selling a few more tickets — I'm looking at The Force Awakens for a comparison, which managed to sell 9.06m tickets in 2015.

    Avatar: The Way of Water | 16 DEC 2022 | Don't worry guys, critics like it

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted · Edited by hw64

    31 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

     

     

    the trailer won't beat any 24 hours record. Leak or not, release with Doctor Strange or not. I'm not saying the movie can't be a huge success when it's coming on theaters on Christmans but right now just there isn't that kind of fever. 

     

    There doesn't need to be any fanboy-driven fever, just general curiosity driven by the success and impact of Avatar, the past work of James Cameron, and the production schedule of Avatar 2 — how long it's taken to develop, and all the delays. Avatar 2 has become a minor myth at this point, and a lot of people who aren't necessarily convinced that they want to watch Avatar 2 in December will be tuning in to see what the teaser has to offer. That, and as Charlie mentions, Avatar and James Cameron are powerhouses in the most populous countries in the world, India and China, both of which will help to massively propel trailer views.

     

    Not saying it's necessarily going to break any records, but the trailer views will definitely be very good.

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