Gavin Feng

more like In the Heights than Crazy Rich Asian in box office.

I prefer to say uncertain like you did, but the truth is the release got killed by local bureau. Like Nomadland or any other "banned" movie, local bureau or studio never make a statement on whether the movie is coming or not. On the surface, they are just waiting. Essentially, it's banned. They always keep the right of final explanation.

Shang-Chi is expected to come on Sep.3 though no official word is confirmed yet. I'm not sure if everything will keep going on considering some uncertain factor the movie have faced in the past. Sometimes even local bureau couldn't notice the problem they worry about until the very last minute.

There were some words around it before July. Like First Class, U.N.C.L.E., it's done because it shows how Hollywood view Soviet and socialism with their limited cognition. Local bureau could not give it yes especially the time a ideological warfare is happening in some way.

Black Widow is not going to be released in China

most likely. But, never say never.

Luca - Aug.20

Wait for earnings conference this week. If nothing happen, it's probably theatrical release only. But I can hardly imagine they will piss Marvel off one more time.

Martin Scorsese: Cinema is dead. Kevin Feige: Theme park is dead. LeBron James: Stadium is dead. James Gunn: They will live because of TV.

TSS has 8.2/10 on Douban rated by 41K users. Pretty impressive considering Mulan got 34k votes at the same point.

from DL for next two Disney titles.

what I said in CBO thread today can be post again: bad movie is too bad to go cinema. good one is not good enough to go cinema. TSS is good, but audience don't think it's something they have to see in big screen like usual. I believe in the post-pandemic era(at least in near future), only those that make people believe they wanna see nowhere but in theater can make huge money from theatrical business.

from DL https://deadline.com/2021/08/the-suicide-squad-margot-robbie-james-gunn-opening-weekend-box-office-hbo-max-1234810359/

#TheSuicideSquad opened #1 at FRI #boxoffice with $12.15M incl THU pre-shows. CinemaScore is B+. Full opening wknd for R-rated pic looks headed to $26-28M neighborhood which will be well below $39.5M opening DAY of PG-13 #BlackWidow from a month ago. Both had streaming option.

$12M incl $4M from THU night.

If situation don't go worse in the next two weeks, I guess everything will be fine as soon as the end of the Aug. However, the key of box office recovery is whether any good movie could bring audience back to theaters. Safety has never been a problem in the past year, but the interest of theater experience is decreasing due to the soaring costs: a) Blockbusters are too bad to bring people back to cinema. Audience always want to see blockbusters, but studios keep giving them bad work like Detective Chinatown 3, F9. Even Marvel missed the mark with Black Widow and gained very mixed WOM after piracy came out. Theater experience just become less and less attractive in recent time. b) Ticket price is higher this year. Since audience are not allowed to take masks off in theater, snacks couldn't be sold well. Theater owners could do nothing but raising ticket price for avoiding big loss. Who want to see worse movie with higher price, especially considering Disney & Warner are showing their pic to local audience for free? c) Young People have more entertainment options. Short video like Tik Tok can feed their time more easily and quickly. Online movies and TV series from Netflix and other streaming companies are not that bad compared to those in theater at this point. There are countless reasons for people to stay at home. And only one can bring them back to theaters: Good movie. I couldn't see the potential of making audience think theater experience is very special from any of upcoming titles, and that sense is very important at this point. The solution of saving cinema or theme park or stadium is more than just killing delta virus.

Some second or third tier cities have lockdown. For first tier cities, Nanjing pull through the crisis in recent days, while Zhengzhou government ask local communities to execute close-loop management. A lockdown for big city is unlikely in near future, but audience's mood get huge effect. Weakest summer holidays for years(if not count 2020).

Earnings conference is coming this weekend if I'm not wrong. We will know soon.

looks like little Bob still could do whatever he want without worrying about his creative team.

Eddie: Venom, I have a question for you. Venom: What? Eddie: Why not make some R-rated stuff. I mean, don't you think it's a pity that only PG-13 plots and actions sequences all around us? Venom: Because you're a loser and you don't deserve R-rated Venom. Eddie: Okay, I see.

Definitely Jungle Cruise couldn't create a Pirates-verse franchise with current WOM and box office opening. Maybe it's not a failure. But I highly doubt a sequel is on board. At least not a theatre-central sequel.

that sound so familiar, right?

https://www.thewrap.com/inside-disney-bob-iger-bob-chapek-rift-scarjo-blunder/ Disney keep telling audience great stories as usual.

Both trailers have wonderful magic that make me forget this is a sequel of a $800M blockbuster.