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Gavin Feng

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Everything posted by Gavin Feng

  1. Vin said in Chinese living tour that he will do something like that in F10 though I doubt a 10th movie is happening.
  2. early estimates say ¥193M. have chance to be a bit higher, but ¥200M is probably not happening.
  3. estimates will come soon. I guess ¥305M or so. ¥200M SUN is in danger.
  4. At 11am, the gap of SATs between F9 & TF5 is ¥10M. At 5pm, it’s about ¥20M. Evening showings will decide ¥300M or not today.
  5. Fewer entertainment is the major reason. The franchise couldn’t do anything but make something huge. But this time, bigger is not better. Vin Diesel really try his best to make it become his own saga. But anything he did only made him look clumsy. And most Chinese audience really hate he milk Paul Walker, keeping saying something like Paul taught him how to do in the next movie. Maybe the success of Furious 7 let him go the wrong way.
  6. I checked the data that TF5 was doing ¥118M at 11am Saturday and ended with ¥316.7M. F9 might have risk to miss ¥300M, but somehow I still think SAT > FRI ≈ ¥317M should happen
  7. I thought they did because Vin Diesel can't stop mentioning Paul Walker.
  8. 5.5/10 by most recent 100 users on Douban. Maoyan positive:negative is now close to 4.5:1.
  9. On Douban, it’s 5.8/10 rated by recent 100 users. Worst of the franchise. H&S got 6.3/10. On Maoyan, positive:negative reactions is about 5:1. Usually, it means the audience score might be under 8.4/10(B+)
  10. early reactions on maoyan and taopiao look average even awful. Saying too many talks and lines, too many boring dramas. H&S has 8.5/10 Maoyan score. This might not be far away.
  11. from thr: Discovery CEO David Zaslav will lead the merged company as CEO, and there is no word about a role for WarnerMedia CEO Jason Kilar. The companies say the deal will close in 2022, subject to shareholder and regulatory approvals.
  12. And it's fair to say that this is a bad sign for HLW in some ways. When local blockbusters are looking at 3 or 4 or 5 billion lifetime even Wolf Warrior 2, the era of 2 billion of HLW is leaving(maybe they never really enter that period).
  13. What F9 make in advance ticket sale is now: - 161% of H&S. (¥1080M opening) - 96% of TF5. (¥836M opening) - 50% of F8. (¥676M opening) - 29% of IW (¥368M opening) It doesn't seem like that F9 could hit ¥400M daily mark. Actually, it's not even very clear if it could make ¥300M and ¥350M on FRI and SAT, respectively. In other words, ¥1B opening is very unlikely from what we've seen. ¥900M opening somehow is not a great target either. It usually require a import movie to make ¥180M-plus in advance ticket sale considering the formula: ad ticket sale / opening weekend > 20% (mostly it's for huge movies) ¥800M-level opening should be the most likely result at this point. Even if its SAT is just ¥300M, it's not hard for the movie to do ¥230M on FRI or SUN with conservative prediction of ¥40M from midnights. Of course, it would be another story if WOM is not well.
  14. Maoyan data people saw your post just like Deadline.
  15. F9 does now fall behind TF5 at the same point in advance ticket sale of opening weekend.
  16. Disney: How do you know we're doing things about insulting China
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