Ezen Baklattan

Has anyone seen anything for Sam and Colby? It’s a movie opening this week (seemingly exclusive to Cinemark) about two popular ghost hunters on YouTube. They added a ton of showtimes this weekend since a lot of the initial shows are just about sold out in the theaters I checked in Pittsburgh. Idk how wide it’s going but it’s worth seeing if it makes a splash this weekend.

Obviously great but DAMN was hoping for an A+

Alright, moving in a good direction!

I think for it to only hit mid-20s would require a historically bad IM for an animated movie without early access screenings. Not saying I couldn’t see it but that would be drastically weak. that said, I do think there’s something to be said about Transformers and Wild Robot (hell, throw Beetlejuice in there too) cannibalizing each other. It’s been said before, but TFO genuinely had an awful release date. I do think we have to prepare for similar cases happening to Moana/Wicked and Sonic/Mufasa, even if the impact of the holidays will ultimately lessen the blow. Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 feel like rare exceptions, but even then IO2 hit most of its earnings before DM4 dropped. just…fuck, at least make it to 30m. Most Soul Crushing Run is gonna be a crowded enough field as is.

Eh, movies like this are pretty much textbook cases where you’re only going to see it if you already 100% agree with what it has to say, so it’s hard to be surprised by this. IIRC Unplanned got a A+ Cinemascore and that’s pretty much the same shit.

I think we might see a relatively low preview share of the Friday gross for SNE, as is often the case for horror movies that open on Friday the 13th. Definitely think there’s enough for it to get comfortably in the double digits.

Doom and gloom from opening day slightly below inflated expectations Massively good Saturday hold close enough welcome back catching fire opening weekend

For IT ENDS WITH US, I think the FotS comp is an apt comparison, but it might hold a bit closer to Crawdads. Not by much though. Give it maybe a drop just under 50% on Saturday? 8 15 13 10 BORDERLANDS has a bit of range of general audiences are a bit more forgiving for just one weekend (it’s going to drop horribly next weekend no matter what) but let’s go with this 1.3 2.5 2.9 2.1 So 46-48m for IEWU (that’s such a weird acronym lol) and 9-10m for Borderlands.

How much of an impact do we think the Olympics will have? I guess it'll likely impact OS more, but probably not nothing.

I think the EA is going to eat into previews a good bit but something like this seems reasonable 10.7 19.8 (30.5m True Friday) 23.5 19 73m weekend - an extremely satisfying result!!

Inside Out 2 is continuing to parallel Barbie pretty closely as of now, it’s $5m ahead - definitely lost a bit of steam because of DM4, but its opening weekend was roughly the same. Without any more significant family competition (Harold might do Dora numbers at BEST) there’s still very much a path for $650m.

I watched it in a theater while cross faded and it was an incredible experience tbh

Anecdotally - it doesn't seem quite as totalizing? The GentleMinion meme was EVERYWHERE on social media when Minions 2 released, and it at least feels quieter to me. Still, I'm not sure how much that really moved the needle, as it seems like all of Illumination's movies are incredibly backloaded when it comes to sales and relied far more on walk-ups than even other animated movies.

Anecdotally, I've performed Rocky Horror in theaters showing Inside Out 2 - when those audiences would clear out; kids and families made up a far smaller share of the audience that I expected. If it can withhold DM4 enough to stay over $30m, it's gonna stay incredibly strong - hell, if Disney spreads the wealth when Deadpool and Wolverine opens, it could stay over $10m weekends until August. 4th weekend: $31m (-46%) 5th weekend: $22m (-29%) 6th weekend: $15m (-32%) <- should hit $600m around this point if all goes well. 7th weekend: $11m (-27%) Interestingly, it's followed Barbie pretty closely; as it stands, IO2 is currently $11m ahead of Barbie at the same point in its run; This weekend should close the gap, but the lead should stay the same. $650m or bust!