Johnny Tran
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Posts posted by Johnny Tran
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52 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
No need to be bitter at a movie getting a Fresh. All indications that this isn't horrible. If it is entertaining, most critics will let it slide. Fresh will help it do a little better at least this weekend.
Any hope of a review bump is dead.
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15 hours ago, VanillaSkies said:
So, um, plot twist.
Initial reactions for The Marvels hit at midnight and are pretty damn strong. If the reviews are decent and it gets 70%+ on RT, could we see a nice recovery for the weekend (meaning 50+ at least)?About that....
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5 minutes ago, DInky said:
And they're still throwing out inflated numbers.
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/the-marvels-box-office-marvel-1235639482/
Dear God... I think at this point Marvel/Disney would be ecstatic with $60M+ but if they trades think that's bad imagine what the headlines will be if it comes in under $60M which is looking likely.
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I'm just confused by the trades. Surely they have data to look at, no? Just a couple weeks ago, maybe not even they were saying $70-80M for 'The Marvels" and they were calling that a bad holdover from the first movie. But they had nothing stating that it could and was likely to go even lower. Until now.
Y'all in here have been on it for weeks. Congrats again. The trades are getting beat up by this thread.
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This idea that Disney can just continue to brush off failures isn't reality. They have been having a rough couple of years in a lot of areas within the company. Their stock has cratered to levels not seen since the start of the pandemic. Bombs from their motion picture division are not just a big yawn. Changes are likely coming if the next couple of movies lose money. I don't think Feige himself is on the chopping block but they will definitely take a look at how they are handling the Marvel IP as well as Pixar and everything else that's been having issues.
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To be honest, I've been seeing The Marvels trailers/TV Spots everywhere for weeks now. They are promoting it all over sports programming etc. Despite the strike going on, I'm not really buying the idea that there's a lack of awareness for the movie. Presales are driven by the ultra super fans mostly anyway who absolutely know there is a movie coming on 11/9 starring Carol and Fury.
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Another thing to consider with KOTFM. It was originally supposed to be released on Apple+ the same day and I've heard from several people who are just waiting for it to show up there and watch the 3 1/2 hours in the comfort of their homes. It was never marketed as a must see theater experience until way too late.
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5 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:
I was talking to my bud Jamie yesterday and we were talking about how the internet way exaggerates Scorsese's selling power at the box office. Yes he's a genius filmmaker, blah, blah but his films aren't big business usually. Deal with it. It's a smug cinephile delusion is what it is.
Goodfellas and Casino have been on repeat on cable daily for over 30 years now. I'd say someone is definitely watching his work.
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As someone who hasn't really played the games much and doesn't know a lot about the lore, would I enjoy FNAF? I'm going to watch it eventually anyway. I am a big fan of horror.
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Just wanted to congratulate everyone who had been tracking FNAF these past few weeks. Incredible work. You guys nailed it and the trades weren't even close. Great work.
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34 minutes ago, John Marston said:
this looks like a Disney Channel movie. No wonder it’s tracking badly
And not a good one. I've seen most of the MCU in theaters. I think I've seen 20 of them in theaters. I will most likely not be wasting my time on this one.
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$23M for KOTFM is NOT a soft opening and here's why: It was never marketed as a wide release or an IMAX event. I've talked to several people who have said "Looking forward to seeing this on Apple+" and that is how it was supposed to be released. After hearing the runtime of nearly 3.5 hours, people would much rather watch it at home and thought they were going to be able to do so this week before plans changed.
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I think it's becoming clear that people just didn't love Captain Marvel that much. It got the Avengers bump and now it's coming back down to where it would have fallen if not for the Infinity War/End Game craze.
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KOTFW was indeed a masterpiece. I would say that it's a slow start and if you wanted to trim the film anywhere it would probably be with the first hour. When it gets rolling along in hour two it doesn't let up from there. There will be many many Oscar nominations out of this.
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9 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:
That would have kicked off Kang with a bang. But an Ant Man movie was probably the wrong place for that kinda play...
A lot of people including myself agreed when it was released that Kang looked like a jobber in that movie. He needed to accomplish a goal to set things in motion. That doesn't necessarily mean everyone had to die but it would have been a wild start to his saga.
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15 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:
220m . UK tax subsidy is already deducted from that.
'
So it needs maybe $500M or so to break even?
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So here's a couple things I'm thinking about. By the way, I do like Monica and 'Ms. Marvel' was a decent enough show IMO.
1. There was a lot of talk about 'Captain Marvel' having an Avengers "bump" as it was sandwiched between two of the biggest movies of all time. Do the low tracking numbers for this show that the bump was very significant? Also, there was talk about the word of mouth not being great, does the tracking speak to that at all ?
2. I'm shocked that they have taken so long on developing an X-Men story arc for the MCU. It seems to me like that was the obvious direction once they acquired the rights to make those movies but so far there's nothing on that front and I think the MCU as a whole is missing star power.
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1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:
I would say $10M previews is the absolute ceiling if everything goes right, so o/u $70M OW which is still pretty bad.
What's the production budget on this? Apologies this isn't a movie that's been on my radar too much so I have questions that may have been answered pages ago.
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How much will the tracking change between now and release? Is it possible everyone is jumping out the window too early?
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This is my most anticipated movie of the Fall. Hopefully we get good reviews soon. Reactions seem good.
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RT at this point is just one thing I look at, it's not THE thing. I want to hear what friends and family think or what some trusted members here think, I want to see what the cinemascore is or what the postrak numbers are or what the verified audience scores are. Critic reviews are just a small piece of the pie.
But that's for movies I'm on the fence about.
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We just got back and this was a nice little matinee to be honest. I loved all of the parts with Jaime and his family. The action sequences were ok, decent. There's definitely some "been there, done that" to this movie that makes it feel a bit generic but I think everything with the family makes this movie rise above some of the other recent CBM's I've seen recently. We liked it. Obviously not a big crowd at the theater probably about 15 people total.
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I'd like to see 'Blue Beetle' grow some longer legs but at least it appears to be a decent movie with some heart. I think we may go see it tomorrow and leading up to it I didn't really have much interest so it at least won a couple people over lol.
I hope it's good because most comic book movies and TV shows I've seen over the past couple of years have been meh or bad aside from GOTG Vol. 3 and The Batman.
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4 hours ago, PlatnumRoyce said:
or the posttrak/cinemascore or the poll mashable conducted a few days latter. TLJ was obviously divisive but you weirdly don't see it in high quality audience score metrics, only the film's terrible legs and Disney's followup actions. I agree with your general point but there's a messiness to this stuff that I've yet to seen successfully unraveled.
The decline in quality also makes people forget that Fast 5 & 6 are genuinely very good films (as was Fast 4 but that didn't even get the benefit of the doubt as a soft reboot of the franchise). If anything, I'd argue the reverse is happening: declining quality post-Lin retroactively devalues his successes.
The Star Wars thing is way too complicated to delve into at the moment so I'll just stick to Fast. So, I agree with you that Fast Five is a fantastic movie and I'd even argue that 6/7 are also very good, part 7 of course has a brilliant ending to it.. But where I think they started getting the benefit of the doubt was with The Fate of the Furious because as big as a Fast fan that I am, I thought that movie stunk for the most part and yet the critic score is I think 67% and then F9 was terrible to me and that was also Fresh for a very long time, it's dipped just below at 59% now. I'd argue FX was a little more entertaining but at 56% you can see that critics are getting tired.
Now let me tie this into 'Blue Beetle' because that's what we're here for. IF Blue Beetle is a good movie with some heart as the reactions are saying, but also somewhat formulaic and forgettable then I can see the Shazam comparisons but this isn't 2018/2019 anymore during the peak of comic book movies. Shazam got a huge 91% I think, I'd have to go check again but I do not think it'd be as high now and if Blue Beetle is of the same quality I could see it getting maybe 76%.
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The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
It's frankly, uncommon that a big tentpole movie's weekend thread would be locked for this long. Presale numbers are out. I'm guess the moderators are afraid of what the thread is going to look like but all they have to do is thread ban people who get out of hand. Noting how something is flopping isn't "flaming".
I have to give credit to the trackers once again. They were on the $6-7M number for previews weeks ago.