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ShinyDave

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  1. They assumed that Melissa McCarthy meant tentpole numbers - and in the mid-2010s that was certainly not indefensible, but she's never been an obvious choice as the go-to for a $150m would-be international megahit. Give her (and Feig) a good script and a mid-budget production and you could get major ROI on your $50m + P&A, and that got proven multiple times in the first half of the 10s. Ghostbusters '16 was arguably Exhibit A of the limits to Hollywood's focus on big-budget tentpole plays and proven IP. You had a proven IP that couldn't work internationally, but they tried to tu
  2. Sometimes the conspiracist in me wonders if Ghostbusters 2016 was built to fail, to go "we gave women a chance to lead a tentpole and it didn't work, let's not do that again!" It's a ridiculous thought, but no more ridiculous than greenlighting a $150m horror comedy, even one using a highly established IP.
  3. After my Derby Killer escape with Arctic Dogs (and the happy highball on Harriet) I guess I've got a target on my back now. Target for this week: be above-average on holdovers.
  4. Fox News did air on Sky as part of the grab-bag of international news channels they have, almost certainly because both were parts of the Murdoch empire, albeit in Sky's case as a minority controlling stake. (Which is not unrelated to why they now don't - it was pulled with suspicious timing in the midst of the regulatory enquiry when 21CF tried to buy the remainder of Sky, which ultimately sparked a bidding war that Comcast won.)
  5. With that weather setup, is there even a chance that Dory and Dragon actually go up on last weekend's sunshine-shrunk numbers this weekend?
  6. Weather forecasting models hinting at the prospect of next weekend being a washout, which could be huge for all the family movies. Maybe one or more of them even grow versus this weekend? (I don't know if that would be a realistic possible outcome. Others on here will presumably have evidence either way?) Can't say I'm shocked at the low opening for Pete's Dragon. As well as the immense competition both theatrical (Dory, BFG, Pets) and otherwise (Olympics, outdoor activities), it didn't seem to have a big marketing push here, or at least not one I was exposed to.
  7. At this rate it looks entirely possible that the UK run will be remarkably close to domestic. Headed for around £30m, which is $39m at the current ER; based on the market response to betting markets pricing in only a 10-15% chance of Brexit at one point right after the polls closed (I actually made a significant profit betting against this even though I was pre-Remain myself!), the ER in the event of no Brexit would likely have been GBP = 1.5USD or so, plus there'd have been less economic uncertainty affecting families and their discretionary expenditure. As such, it doesn't seem that unreason
  8. Yeah knew it was Disney, I was putting that in as "films that FB needs to beat to thwart the Disney sweep" and hadn't clocked that you'd already factored that in with your wording!
  9. And Rogue One, which only needs to retain 48.4% of TFA to get the billion. Penguins of Madagascar retained 49.9% of Madagascar 3 two and a half years later. Just saying.
  10. Not a surprise. Forecast suggests its best opportunity could be from a potential thundery breakdown on Wednesday.
  11. This "disappointment" has already made more WW than BvS, a far more "sure thing" franchise film than a family movie sequel practically a generation on from the original could ever be. It also cost slightly less to produce, and probably to market too. To get anywhere near Nemo's levels of attendance - remember, we're comparing with one of the most beloved films of an era where computer animation tentpoles were rare and almost always huge - in the US was already impressive. To come anywhere near even the same raw revenue numbers in Europe with a release window that, by sh
  12. Dory will definitely suffer at the weekend and during the mini-heatwave/Spanish plume setup forecast for early next week. If there's a thundery breakdown on Wednesday (eminently possible with such a configuration) it should have a big day then. The BFG is literally making more money on weekdays than weekend days. Do summer holiday family flicks usually play like that?
  13. Maybe this is an attempt at capturing the pent-up demand from frustrated crowds who failed to get a Cursed Child ticket? Or perhaps even trying to create an illusion of comparable scarcity?
  14. He's certainly one of the most important figures in animated film history. I think his importance is primarily commercial though - not even in terms of "his films aren't that good but they make megabucks" (there's definitely arguments either way on his films' quality!), but the fact he's managed to create hit after hit without a massive budget. DM, DM2, and Minions cost only slightly more combined than the average recent Pixar movie!
  15. UK run is being absolutely whammied by multiple factors - Brexit has not only ruined the exchange rate but also added economic uncertainty that will probably disproportionately hurt expenditure by families, who in turn got rinsed for cash by SLOP and The BFG (which actually has been legitimately big here). And then when Dory did come out, it did so into the midst of an unusually benign summer for the UK - so outdoor activities became a more compelling proposition. (And outside Scotland, the weather forecast is set fair for the reasonably forecastable future, too.) Dory may still ha
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